January 2024 St. Cloud Weather Summary

Mildest December-January in St. Cloud Records; Least Snowy Season Since 1905

The balmy weather continued over Minnesota in January. The average January temperature at the Saint Cloud Regional Airport was 19.4 degrees, 7.6 degrees above average. That just missed by 0.2 degree the 10 mildest Januaries. The reason for the near miss was an outbreak of arctic air from the afternoon of the 11th through the morning of the 21st (see NWS January 2024 St. Cloud high-low temperature graph). St. Cloud recorded 2 full days without the temperature breaking zero and 9 days with a sub-zero low. Each were the first such readings this season. That cold broke a streak of 43 straight days of above average temperatures from November 29 through December to January 10. briefly knocked the average temperature to within half a degree of average. However, the remainder of the month was even milder than the start. Fog plagued the mild period from January 23-27, but the month finished with sunny days, similar to what we had in the first half of December. Eight record mild temperatures were set from January 25 through 31, ending with the 55 degree high on January 31, only one degree short of the warmest January high temperature of all time, 56 on January 24, 1981.

The combination of December and January was easily the mildest Dec-Jan in St. Cloud records by more than 2 degrees. The previous record for a mild two-thirds of winter was 1913-1914. And, since November, the three month average of 28.9 degrees is St. Cloud's 3rd mildest, falling just 0.1 degree short of 2001-2002. Note how frequently the years since 1997 show up in these records, a sign of the recent trend of several mild years reflecting the predicted temperature trend in a globally warmed earth (milder especially in northern interiors of continents and especially during the cold season).

And, the current pattern, featuring a strong Rockies high pressure area (see clockwise circulation nosing well into Alberta and Saskatchewan on the Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), will keep what little arctic air there is in central and northern Alaska (see 3 PM Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

So, the coldest temperature seen so far this winter in St. Cloud was -13 on January 20. Even in mild winters, there has only been one cold season where the coldest temperature wasn't at least -16 degrees. Since there is arctic air in North America in Alaska, near Labrador, and over Greenland, which is cold even for those brutal areas (see blue colors on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb GFS map from 6 PM last night, another arctic interlude is possible before the end of the winter. More days are likely to stay mild, based on the current pattern that will last well into next week and the presence of El Nino, which favors milder than average winters in the Northern Plains.

Unlike December (wettest December in St. Cloud records), the dry pattern resumed in January. Only 0.20 inches fell in January 2024, 0.47 inch below average. That precipitation only contained 3.4 inches of snow, 5.4 inches below average. This ranked as the 25th lowest January snowfall in St. Cloud records.

That means the total snowfall in St. Cloud between October 30 (yes, that was the first snow of the season) and the end of January was 9.1 inches, well below the average of 26.0 inches. That's the lowest seasonal snowfall total through January in reliable St. Cloud records, which go back to 1905. The previous low was 9.3 inches, set in 1923-1924.

Meanwhile, the southern half of Minnesota has seen less snow so far than nearly all of Kansas and Iowa, much of Nebraska and Wisconsin, and northern Missouri and northern Illinois (see NWS NOHRSC tototal snow accumulation through January, set to seasonal accumulation). Even eastern Tennessee, northwestern Arkansas, northern Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle are ahead of us in snowfall. And, there have been only 21 consecutive days with a snow cover in St. Cloud (January 5-25) and 30 total days with at least an inch on the ground. The longest streak typically lasts nearly 3 months. The fewest days with at least an inch on the ground was 19 days during 1958-1959. The shortest consecutive day streak was 6 days in 1960-1961. With no snow on the ground during the start of February, it will be hard to make even a monthlong streak from February into March.

What happened the rest of the winter in the previous years that had lowest seasonal snowfall total through January? Note that all of the seasons with low snow through January ended up with a below average snowfall year (47.9 inches is the average), three of the seasons got more than 20 inches of snow in the rest of the cold season, ending up in the middle 30's in seasonal snowfall. We know we are in an El Nino year, which greatly favors continued mild conditions through February. However, the split storm track that has moved weather systems well to our south in the Central US can sometimes work together. That gave Minnesota its record wet December. Yes, most of that December precipitation fell as rain, but there was heavy snow in the Dakotas, so snow is still possible.

Note that the heavy rainfall in December (more than an inch above the average precipitation for all 3 winter months, 2.31 inches) allowed for a well above average moisture during winter. Usually, the water source is melted snow. While that runs mostly into lakes and rivers, the warm conditions this year allowed most of that moisture to penetrate the soil, offsetting more of this past spring and summer's dryness.

Summing Up Cold Season So Far

I put this table in last January's summary, documenting our way to the snowiest season in St. Cloud records. It is here just to compare an extreme snow season last year to an extreme lack of snow and mild season this year:

January 2024 Statistics

Posted February 1, 2024