Tuesday, February 3, 2026  2:15 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

How Much Winter is Left?

As you know, I am not a believer in long-range forecasts; I will note that the La Nina, colder-than-average forecast, is looking good through 2 months of meteorological winter (0.9 degrees colder than average for December and January combined; see more details in my January 2026 St. Cloud weather summary).Despite the light snow in January, St. Cloud has 27.8 inches of snow thus far, 1.8 inches above average.

I don't have a specific forecast for February or March, except that we should not see a repeat of the late January cold through much of February. From a climatological standpoint (judging based on what has happened in previous years), we are about halfway through the snow season (November through March, and sometimes October and April). Average temperatures are climbing (green area slowly climbing from left to right on the NWS St. Cloud February 2026 high/low temperature graph), although the February daily records continue to be extremely cold through most of February. 

To me, the climate statistic that seems to emphasize our long central Minnesota cold seasons is the average number of consecutive days with at least an inch of snow cover. St. Cloud averages 86 straight days with at least an inch of snow cover and 101 days overall. Despite the lack of recent snow, St. Cloud has had a snow cover since Thanksgiving week. That makes 70 straight days with at least an inch on the ground, including today. We have a good shot at pushing that streak to at least average, although we have the potential for some thawing in early and mid-February. 

Today May Be the Only Colder Than Average Day Until Early Next Week

On the other hand, we will mainly see average to even milder than average temperatures over the next 7 days. Only today is likely to be colder than average as temperatures rebound from the minus single digits (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) to highs in the teens today. However, we should mainly see highs at least in the 20's through the weekend with a shot at some thawing on Thursday. 

Precipitation chances will remain small with only a flurry chance on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and a sprinkle or flurry possible Thursday night. 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 2/3/2026: Sunny during the morning, mixed sun and high clouds during the afternoon, light winds, and continued cold. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Tuesday Night: Thickening clouds, light winds, and not quite as cold. Maybe a flurry late at night. Low: between 0 and +5. Winds: light SW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday 2/4/2026: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a morning flurry. Back to seasonably cold temperatures. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%. 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and milder. Maybe a snow flurry. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Thursday 2/5/2026: Mixed clouds and some sun, a bit of a breeze, and even milder. High: between 33 and 39. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy, windy, and still mild. Perhaps a flurry or a sprinkle. Temperatures holding in the 30's during the evening, then falling to between 25 and 30 during the early morning. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Friday 2/6/2026: Becoming sunny, breezy, and colder. Early morning temperatures in the 20's, falling to the teens during the afternoon. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH through midday, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and a bit colder. Low: between 2 and 7. Winds: NE 5 MPH evening, SE 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 2/7/2026: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and back to seasonably cold. A slight chance for a flurry. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Average to milder than average temperatures through early next week?? Perhaps a mid-week chance for precipitation???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Tuesday, 8 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night, 5 Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 2 Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday. 

Yesterday's High: 18°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): -1°F

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, February 4, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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