Sunday, March 23, 2025  5:45 AM Update

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Major Snowfall Limited to Northern Minnesota; Wind With Some Light Snow Showers Here

Important Time for Soil Recharge Through Rainfall....

Now that the frost is finally out of the central Minnesota ground in Otsego and the upper foot of soil has thawed in Ottertail, central and southern Minnesota have one of the best opportunities to catch up on the large precipitation shortfall since last August (see US Drought Monitor from University of Nebraska). Thanks to the storms on March 4 and March 14-15, St. Cloud Regional Airport has picked up near average precipitation since January 1 (2.46 inches total, 2.44 inches average), but is still 3.79 inches below average during the last 4 months of 2024 (4.09 inches actual, 7.88 inches average) with parts of northwestern and southwestern Minnesota in even worse shape.

The opportunity is greatest now and in the fall, when any precipitation is able to seep in the ground and the plant use of rainwater in the photosynthesis process low. So, it's important that storms like today's system produce a decent amount of precipitation.

First Precipitation Wave (Some Sleet) from Overnight to Become Northern Minnesota Snow Band

The first wave of the storm (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) was produced by the warm front moving northward (see NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). That band of precipitation, moving northeastward (set number of frames to at least 96 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). A narrow pocket of sub-freezing air near the ground has meant that much of the precipitation has fallen as sleet and freezing rain (see question mark or sideways S symbols on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu) since temperatures are above freezing in the middle atmosphere. St. Cloud Regional Airport had 0.14 inch of this wintry mix while St. Cloud State University picked up 0.10 inch. While ground temperatures were near or above freezing, there still are slippery spots on untreated surfaces in the pre-dawn hours. 

This band of precipitation will continue to push northward, stalling in northern Minnesota and with the precipitation now in the form of snow over the winter storm warning area, now shown along the Boundary Waters and the Arrowhead to the North Shore from Two Harbors to the Canadian border. That's where the best chance for between 4 and 8 inches of snow will occur. The rest of north central and northeastern Minnesota have a winter weather advisory for between 2 and 5 inches of snow.

A Few Midday Snow Showers, With Minor Accumulation If Any Here

In central Minnesota, the warm front will go by, so the early morning southern Minnesota temperatures in the middle 40's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu) will push in, melting whatever ice fell. We will remain there until the low pushes into eastern Minnesota by late morning. This will being in the colder air in the western and central Dakotas (see areas with northwest winds on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu), so the early morning and daybreak temperatures in the 40's will fall back to the middle 30's by midday and to near freezing later in the afternoon. Some of the snow in northern Minnesota will wrap back into central Minnesota, so we are likely to see some occasional light snow or flurries, especially during the middle of Sunday (late morning to early afternoon). However, ground temperatures may be 35 or higher during some of the snow showers, which will mean the snow will melt on contact with the ground. That even lessens the snowfall potential to between a dusting and an inch, if we get any accumulation. Still, any light precipitation will again kick our precipitation totals back up.

Strong Winds in Central and Western Minnesota

The storm will strengthen as it pushes from east central Minnesota into Wisconsin this evening, so we will see those northwest winds pick up to 20-35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH during this afternoon (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather roundup for the latest temperature, visibility, and winds). The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the western half of Minnesota from Redwood Falls, Olivia, Paynesville, Sauk Centre, and Fergus Falls to the Dakotas border. Gusts in the advisory area will top 50 MPH.

Only Small Precipitation Chances Through the Work Week

After today, the weather will quiet down again. There will be weaker storms moving from the northeastern Pacific (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) to near the US-Canadian border . One system goes by on Tuesday with perhaps a few stray early snowflakes and some afternoon sprinkles. There might be some late Wednesday night and early Thursday clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry.

Uncertain Storm Potential Friday Through Weekend

By the time we get to Friday, a stronger storm is forecast to develop from one of the central Pacific storms near the International Date Line. There is more than the usual disagreement among the computer forecasts: there is a chance for a series of low pressure centers, one going by on Friday evening and the possibility of a stronger system on Sunday morning. Not only do the computer forecasts disagree on the track of the stronger storm (a typical one state difference location by Sunday morning), but they are widely apart about the storm track with one showing a possible interaction between northern and southern tracks, and another showing a weaker storm in the northern track. So, there is disagreement about whether there is precipitation and what type it will be. So, be prepared to need indoor activities over next weekend, but it's much too soon to speculate on precipitation amounts and travel issues. The Days 6-7 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast show the potential for significant precipitation over the weekend, but I would rate this as an extremely low confidence forecast.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Sunday 3/23/2025: Cloudy, blustery, and colder. Some sprinkles or flurries during the morning, then a chance of occasional snow showers midday and afternoon. Between a dusting and and an inch of snow may accumulate Sunday afternoon into the early evening. High: between 40 and 45, falling to near freezing during the afternoon. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH early morning, becoming NW and increasing to 20-35 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 70%.

Sunday Night: Perhaps an evening snow flurries, then partly to mostly cloudy late at night. Breezy all night. Low: between 24 and 28. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH evening, 8-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Monday 3/24/2025: Sunny to partly cloudy, not quite as windy, and seasonably cold again. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Monday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and relatively mild. A slight chance of a late night flurry or rain shower. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Tuesday 3/25/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, a lighter wind, and seasonable temperatures again. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy and breezy through the evening with a slight chance for a rain shower or snow flurry, then some breaks in the clouds possible late at night, breezy, and quite mild. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 5 MPH, 5-10 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Wednesday 3/26/2025: Sunshine through high clouds and a shade milder. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, light winds, and still mild. Low: between 32 and 37. Winds: light. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 3/27/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and even a bit warmer. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: A warm Friday, then a small chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night??? Better chance for precipitation (rain or snow) from Saturday afternoon into Sunday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Sunday through Monday, 5 Monday night through Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday, 2 Friday, 0 Weekend.

Yesterday's High: 40°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Sunday): 34°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 5 AM Sunday): 0.11 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Sunday): 0.10 inch

Next Update: Monday, March 24, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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