Tuesday, October 26, 2021 3:10 AM

"Apres Mardi, Le Deluge" (after Tuesday, the storm)

-A Descendent of Louis XV, Looking At Tomorrow's Weather

<doh> 8 years of French in school and I had to look up Tuesday</doh>

A Brief Sunny Interlude Between Storms Continues Today

From yesterday afternoon and continuing today, we are having a break between major storms. While the main rainfall from the storm now over Lake Huron (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) missed Minnesota, that system is headed off the New England coast where it will strengthen and become a major storm today. And, the Pacific storm has made it into the central Rockies (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), after producing up to 2 feet of snow (set to 48-hour snow accumulation on the NOHRSC national snowfall analysis) and over 10 inches of rain in parts of California and will move into the southern Plains by tomorrow afternoon. That western storm will produce a large amount of rain in the central US, including Minnesota, but that won't begin until late tonight and early tomorrow morning.

Wet, Windy, and Wonderful Weather Wednesday and Thursday

So, we have one more day of sunshine ahead. There are some high and middle clouds that have moved in from the west (see Shortwave Albedo from Colorado State satellite slider), but the rainfall is back in Montana and Idaho (set number of frames to 48 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), so we will just have some sunshine through those high clouds. Temperatures are again beginning the day in the 30's, thanks to the high clouds and the persistent east breeze (see NWS Aviation Weather Center metar map). Highs will end up in the low or even middle 50's, a bit warmer than yesterday afternoon (see 4 PM Monday NWS WPC North American surface map). You'll notice the persistent southeast wind as the high over northwestern Ontario departs and the low begins to approach from the Rockies.

The wet period begins during the early morning hours of Wednesday. The most persistent period of rain will be between tomorrow morning and midnight tomorrow night, but there will be lingering occasional showers or drizzle the rest of Wednesday night and Thursday. There will be the potential for over an inch of rain in much of central and southern Minnesota with over half an inch possible in northern Minnesota. That will be the needed kickstart to our wet period. While the rains have been more substantial over the past 60 days (more than 8 inches, yellow, on the 60-day NWS rainfall total map) since late August, most of the state hasn't seen the 5-7 inches above average (blue or purple) needed to bring the total back to normal. So, this rain will be needed.

That thought will have to be enough to get you through the wet and penetrating cold from early tomorrow through Thursday evening. Temperatures will mostly be in the 40's, possibly climbing over 50 for a brief time on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. There will be a strong southeast wind at 10-20 MPH during the days and 8-15 MPH overnight, adding to the cold feel.

Slow Dry Out Thursday Night Through Saturday

This Pacific storm will slow as it moves into Missouri and Arkansas, so we won't see a flow of drier air until Thursday night and Friday. So, the low clouds will begin to break up Thursday night, allowing low temperatures to drop into the 30's. At this point, Friday and Saturday appear to be sunnier, allowing daytime temperatures into the 50's on Friday and in the upper 50's to near 60 on Saturday.

Cooler Again Sunday into Early Next Week

As weather systems get moving again late in the week, a strong cool front is due to pass through Minnesota on Saturday afternoon, so cooler than average weather will move in once again from Sunday into early next week.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "I Will Walk into the Doorknob at Least Twice A Day"

Tuesday 10/26/2021: Sunshine through middle and high clouds, breezy, and a bit milder. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Thickening clouds with light rain or showers developing in the early morning hours. Breezy, and not quite as cool. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% before 2 AM, 70% after 2 AM.

Wednesday 10/27/2021: Cloudy with periods of rain likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Windy and raw. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 90%.

Wednesday Night: Occasional rain continuing, sometimes tapering off to fog and drizzle. Continued clammy and cool. Slowly diminishing wind. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 90%.

Confidence Level: "At Least Once, My Fingernail Will Get Pulled Back and Start Bleeding"

Thursday 10/28/2021: Cloudy with occasional rain or drizzle. Continued cool and clammy. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Thursday Night: Finally drying out, breezy, and cooler with some partial clearing. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "We Will Be Out of Bandages"

Friday 10/29/2021: Mixed clouds with a few sunny breaks. Breezy and a shade milder. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Clear, light winds, and cool with some areas of fog possible. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: light. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Saturday 10/30/2021: Partly sunny and a bit milder. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Turning cooler again Sunday into early next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday, 7 Monday night and Tuesday, 6 Tuesday night through Wednesday night, 5 Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 3 Friday.

Yesterday's High: 52°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Tuesday): 37°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, October 27, 2021 8 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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