Friday, May 6, 2022 3:10 AMBob WeismanMeteorology ProfessorSaint Cloud State UniversityAtmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department
Close Shave From Kansas Storm...
More clouds hung around through the morning and midday yesterday as the Rockies storm drifted into Kansas and Oklahoma (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider). The main area of showers and thunderstorms developed from Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois southward (see NWS national radar loop). However, some light showers that developed during the morning in Iowa and southern Minnesota drifted into parts of central Minnesota around midday (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central radar loop). Despite the clouds, temperatures climbed well up into the 60's once again (see 4 PM Thursday NWS WPC North American zoom-in map).
...Will Give Way to More Sun Today and Tomorrow
The low clouds on the far northern flank of the Kansas-Oklahoma low (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) have been pushing southward overnight (see white areas on the Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State satellite slider). The low will drift eastward today, allowing more of the drier air from Michigan and northern Minnesota northward to get into Minnesota. So, we have a good chance of seeing more sunshine today than yesterday and at least some sunshine through some high clouds tomorrow. Temperatures will rebound from the lower 40's or even upper 30's (see new NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu) this morning to the upper 60's or even lower 70's today and to the lower half of the 70's tomorrow.
Stalling Weather Pattern to Produce More Above Average Temperatures, Threats of Showers and Thunderstorms
The dramatic weather pattern change is still expected over the weekend. The Kansas-Oklahoma storm will drift into the Southeast US and stall. The next storm moving onshore in British Columbia and Washington state (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will intensify over the Rockies as a series of lows moves through it. Weather systems will generally come to a halt, forcing the series of lows from the Rockies to push northeastward into Manitoba. That means the Plains states will have strong south flow to its east, bringing up warm and eventually more humid air. There will be a sharp front in the High Plains, separating the unseasonable warmth and humidity to the east from much cooler temperatures to the west. And, the clashing area will produce good to excellent chances for showers and thunderstorms with some severe weather possible.
Sunday - Early Thunderstorms, Some PM Sun(??)
The problem is timing each of the lows moving from the Rockies into the High Plains. At this point, it appears that the shower and thunderstorm threat will begin late Saturday night and into Sunday. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible then. It appears that most of the showers and thunderstorms will move out some time on Sunday morning and we could end up with some sunshine for the second half of the day. The computer forecasts are knocking high temperatures back into the lower 60's, but if we see more sunshine, there will again be a shot at some 70 degree temperatures.
Monday - Better Chance for Storms Early and Late??
The forecast is shakier for Monday, but the computer forecasts now agree on one Manitoba low running a cold front into Minnesota by late afternoon. There will be a chance for both late night-early morning thunderstorms and middle to late afternoon thunderstorms. Depending on how large the break is between the storms and how much sunshine pops out in southern Minnesota and Iowa, there is a possibility of severe thunderstorms in the Monday afternoon outbreak, but it's too early to pin that down. Even though the computer forecasts keep us cloudy all day, I am forecasting some early afternoon brightening, which would push highs into the lower 70's.
Tuesday - Perhaps a Little Drier???
The forecasts get really iffy after Monday. The US computer forecast is showing slightly drier and cooler air from Canada moving in from Tuesday, but the overall steering winds favor warmer than average temperatures. And, the timing of the lows could be completely wrong, so what appears to be a drier Tuesday could still have some thunderstorms.
Above Average Temperatures With Threats for Thunderstorms Much of Next Week
Overall, the general trend of low pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the eastern US with slow movement of weather systems is expected to persist throughout next week. If the high can build westward, we could see very warm temperatures in the 70's or even 80's. However, if the series of lows coming out of the Rockies towards Manitoba dominates, we will have more clouds and shower and thunderstorm chances which are uncertain right now.
I'm Off for Mid-May...
This is the last forecast until sometime during the run-up to Memorial Day.
Confidence Level: "I Will Have to Remove Five-Foot High Snow Piles to Put Out the Trash"
Friday 5/6/2022: Sunny, breezy, and even warmer.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, breezy, and continued mild. Low: between 42 and 48. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Saturday 5/7/2022: Partly sunny, windy, even warmer, and a bit more humid.
Confidence Level: "The Continuing Snow Melt Will Make It Icy Right Where I Have to Change My Balance and Throw the Snow"
Saturday Night: Clouding up, windy, and more humid. A good chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Sunday 5/8/2022: Morning showers and thunderstorms likely. Partial clearing possible in the afternoon, windy, and not quite as warm.
Confidence Level: "The Melting Maven Will Magically Make My Sidewalk Ice Disappear Overnight"
Sunday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and warmer. A chance of late night showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.
Monday 5/9/2022: A good chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm, then some midday partial sunshine, breezy, warm, and more humid. Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe weather is possible.
Monday Night: Perhaps an evening shower or thunderstorm, then partial clearing, breezy, and drier. Low: between 53 and 58. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Tuesday 5/10/2022: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and drier.
Extended: Turning warmer over mid-week?? Uncertain chances for showers and thunderstorms???
Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday, 7 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night, 4 Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday, 1 Monday night and Tuesday.
Yesterday's High: 67°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Friday): 41°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None
|May 6 Historical Data||High||Low|
|Record Temperatures||89°F (2016)||61°F (1939)|
|35°F (1931)||24°F (1944)|
Next Update: May 25, 26, or 27 (No forecasts May 9-24)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
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