St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast
Monday, October 5, 2026 3:05 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus
Warmer and Dry Week Ahead After Chilly Start This Morning
Will We See Frost By Daybreak?
Our warm September has put St. Cloud in 9th place for the warmest first 9 months of the year (see St. Cloud September 2026 Weather Summary). The 9 days with a high of at least 80 degrees has put 2026's warm season in third place (with 91 days) for the most highs that warm. And, the more frequent rainfall has slightly eased the low lake levels and streamflow in central and north central Minnesota.
On the other hand, October is off to a much more seasonable start with Friday morning producing a 34 degree low in St. Cloud and some frost in Sartell. This morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) will end up similar to Friday morning with temperatures creeping down into the 30's (see the cold spots, whiter areas, on the College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop). The bulk of the National Weather Service's frost and freeze warnings are to our north but the cooler areas around St. Cloud could easily have their first frost this morning.
However, we will get warmer and remain dry for much of the upcoming week. Weather systems will begin moving from the eastern Pacific to the Canadian Rockies, and then into the Great Lakes (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). That will keep the air mainly warmer than average (highs in the 60's today, Thursday, and perhaps Friday; highs in the 70's tomorrow, near 70 Wednesday and maybe Friday). The air will be dry because most of the moisture will be wrung out of the air by its trip up and down the mountains. That will keep the dew points low, but low temperatures will more likely be in the 40's after this morning on a clear, calm night (best chance Tuesday through Thursday nights) instead of frost potential.
We will have a shot at a few sprinkles late today as warmer air rises over the top of the leftover cool air, but the chances for rain will generally be small not only today but all the way into the weekend (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).
So, I expect more random happiness, like the attitude of nearly everyone I met outdoors this weekend.
Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast
Confidence Level (high): "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"
Monday 10/5/2026: Sunny after a chilly start during the morning, some sun through high and middle clouds during the afternoon with perhaps a late day sprinkle, breezy, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 62 and 67. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH during the morning, SE 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a sprinkle, breezy, and much warmer. Low: between 52 and 57. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH evening, SW 8-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Tuesday 10/6/2026: Becoming sunny, breezy, and much warmer. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH during the morning, NW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Tuesday Night: Clear to partly cloudy, diminishing wind, and a bit cooler. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, calm late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Wednesday 10/7/2026: Sunshine through high clouds, windy, and a shade cooler. High: between 68 and 73. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Wednesday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and cooler. Some areas of fog late. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, calm late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.
Thursday 10/8/2026: Partly sunny, light winds, and not quite as warm. High: between 62 and 67. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Confidence Level (medium): "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"
Thursday Night: Partly clear with a bit of a breeze and seasonable once again. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH evening, SE 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Friday 10/2/2026: Sunshine mixed with high clouds, light winds, and continued a bit warmer than average. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.
Confidence Level (low): "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"
Extended: Windy with even warmer temperatures Saturday and perhaps Sunday??? Low confidence in forecast beyond Saturday....
Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Monday, 6 Monday night, 8 Tuesday through Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 1 Saturday, 0 Beyond Saturday.
Yesterday's High: 68°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Monday): 39°F;
St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None
| Temperature Category | High | Low |
|---|---|---|
| 61°F | 41°F | |
| 89°F (1947) |
58°F (1955,2011) | |
| 41°F (1952) | 20°F (1952) |
Next Update: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 6 AM
Links
- Full UCAR surface chart menu
- NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
- NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- MesoWest: Last 24 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- Full NWS Aviation Center Zoom-In Map
- Full College of DuPage surface map menu
- NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
- NWS WPC surface map menu
- NWS WPC Short-Range forecast map
- NWS WPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
- US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
- NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses
- US Watch/Warning Map from National Weather Service
- NWS Twin Cities Regional watch warning map
- Today's NWS Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
- Active Tropical Cyclones in eastern Pacific and Atlantic from NWS Tropical Prediction Center
- Potential Flooding Areas from the NWS Weather Prediction Center
- Air Quality Index from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
- NWS Weather Safety Page
- CDC Natural Disaster and Severe Weather Safety
- NWS Hot Weather and Sun/Ultraviolet Safety
- NWS Winter Storm Safety
- NWS Cold Weather Safety
- Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
- NWS Hurricane Safety Page
- NWS Tropical Prediction Center overview of storm surge (coastal flooding)
- Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
- Minnesota DNR Wildfire danger
- US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS
- College of DuPage radar
- Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com
- Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
- St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
- Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
- Minnesota State Climatology Office create your own precipitation table
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
- National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site
- Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
- Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
- St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
- National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
- DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- More Drought Links (from the State Climatology Office, Minnesota DNR)
- DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
Comments
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!