Friday, November 14, 2025  2:53 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Dryness to Persist With Temperatures Climbing Today, Then Dipping Second Half of Weekend

Precipitation-wise, Minnesota continues to be in a hole. The latest US Drought Monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center has downgraded the dry soil conditions in northeastern Minnesota to severe drought. And, the extreme southwestern part of Minnesota has reached moderate drought status. Over the past 4 months (on NWS Water Prediction Center Minnesota map, set date to yesterday, period to last 120 days, and category to departure from average), only part of west central and southeastern Minnesota have seen more than average rainfall (purple, meaning more than 4 inches above average). If you change the period to the last 90 days, the area with above average precipitation shrinks drastically. Large swaths of northern and central Minnesota are more than 4 inches behind (red). In St. Cloud, the rainfall deficit since the first of August is now nearly 5 3/4 inches (4.61 inches actual; 10.31 inches normal).

There will only be small chances for rain through early next week, since we will remain in the northern branch of a split storm track (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). So, any weather system in the northern stream will have little moisture with which to work. There will be a 20% shot at a little light rain late tonight or early tomorrow as a cold front moves from western Alberta (see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). A southern stream storm will push from off the West Coast most likely through Iowa or Missouri on Monday night into Tuesday. The computer forecasts all now show that the small chance for precipitation will be concentrated either along the Minnesota-Iowa border or entirely within northern and central Iowa, so I again have a 1 in 5 shot at rain showers late Monday into Monday night. It would take the two storm tracks working together to allow a southern low further northward to produce major precipitation in Minnesota. Tracking those multiple storms becomes quite difficult next week, but I don't see a chance for major precipitation until at least the middle of next week (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Given the windy conditions expected today into Sunday, there will be some elevated fire danger in parts of Minnesota (watch for the updated Mn DNR Minnesota fire danger map later this morning).

Our next two air masses can also be seen on yesterday afternoon's weather map (see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Even though temperatures in Minnesota reached the middle and even upper 50's (set time to 19Z-23Z, 1-4 PM yesterday, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), at least 15 degrees above the mid-November average high, temperatures were in the 60's and even 70's from southern Alberta to most of Montana and Wyoming east of the mountains well into South Dakota and Nebraska. That air will be here today, so we will likely see highs well up into the 60's. There might even be a 70 degree high in southern Minnesota. St. Cloud has a difficult November 14 record high to reach (68, set in 1990), but we could get close.

Since that cold front won't come through until tomorrow's early morning hours, temperatures are likely to spend much of tonight in the upper 40's or even 50's. The record warm low for tomorrow is 45 degrees and we may remain that warm overnight. However, cooler air will move in behind that cold front, so temperatures on Saturday evening will get cooler than the record.

For the rest of the weekend from tomorrow evening into early next week, the much cooler air mass over Nunavut and the Northwest Territories will push into Minnesota. Notice from yesterday's 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map that there is actually some pretty cold air across northwestern Canada into central Alaska with afternoon temperatures in the single digits above and even the single digits below zero. We don't have the snow cover seen in northern Canada, so that air will get strong warming as it moves southward from longer daylight hours and the sunshine actually being absorbed by the ground. Still, this means that high temperatures will return to the more average 40's on Sunday and Monday while lows will be in the 20's. A persistent breeze will produce wind chills in the teens and 20's. There is a chance for even slightly cooler temperatures on Tuesday (highs in the 30's?), given that we may have some clouds from the storm system to our south, but that is uncertain.

Overall, try to get outside and enjoy today's and this evening's warmth, because we won't see that return for a while.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 11/14/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and even warmer after a chilly start. High: between 62 and 67 (record warm high: 68 in 1990). Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Morning wind chill: between 28 and 35. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and milder. A chance for a rain shower late. Low: between 42 and 48. (record warm low: 48 in 1930) (should be colder Saturday evening) Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday 11/15/2025: Cloudy with perhaps a sprinkle early, then becoming sunny, windy, and cooler. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, breezy, and colder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 13 and 24. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday 11/16/2025: Mostly sunny, not as windy, but with more seasonable temperatures. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Early wind chill: in the teens and 20's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, lighter winds, and colder. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: N 5 MPH. Wind chill: in the teens. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Monday 11/17/2025: Clouding up with a slight chance for a late day rain shower, breezy, and continued seasonably cold. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Early wind chill: in the teens and 20's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: A slight chance for an evening sprinkle or flurry, then partly clear, breezy, and still cold. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: in the teens. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 11/18/2025: Partly sunny, light winds, and colder. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Early wind chill: in the teens and 20's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Uncertain temperatures middle of next week??? Low precipitation chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday, 7 Friday night through Sunday, 6 Sunday night, 3 Monday through Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 56°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Friday): 33°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, November 17, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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