Tuesday, January 13, 2026  2:40 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Get Ready for Windy and Colder Friday Through the Weekend

Mild Weather Today With Some Slipping in Northern Minnesota Possible Early AM

Yesterday actually felt toasty, due to both the sunshine from above and the reflection of the snow off the snow cover. But, temperatures climbed into the 40's once again (see NWS WPC 3 PM CST North America zoom-in map) and reached the 50's as close as Sioux Falls (set time to 18Z-21Z, noon to 3 PM CST on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

There is now a low pressure system moving through the northern half of Minnesota (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) that will bring our mild spell to an end. There are a lot of radar echoes in the northern half of Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar), but only a small amount of the precipitation has made it through the low level dry air to the ground (see lack of weather symbols on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). The precipitation has been falling as either rain or mixed precipitation, but precipitation later this morning will take the form of snow showers. That combination has produced some slick spots on roads in northwestern Minnesota (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports). Those conditions will spread to north central and northeastern Minnesota before dawn, so the National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory until 6 AM.

Blustery This Afternoon and Evening

Cooler air will eventually move in behind this low, but today will still end up on the mild side, since temperatures were above freezing yesterday in the northern and central Canadian Prairie Provinces (see yesterday's NWS WPC 3 PM CST North America zoom-in map). We will again see highs in the upper 30's to perhaps lower 40's today. The main change will be a blustery northwest wind this afternoon that will blow at 15-30 MPH with some gusts over 45 MPH (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest wind gusts).

Short Cold Spell Tonight and Tomorrow

Colder air will work its way into Minnesota tonight and last through tomorrow night. Temperatures will fall back to near 10 by tomorrow morning and only recover to the middle teens tomorrow afternoon. The continued strong northwest winds will produce some wind chills in the minus teens late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Stronger Storm Will Produce High Winds, May Produce Shovelable Snow, Especially to Our North Thursday Nt-Sat

A stronger weather system will push southeastward, reaching Manitoba Thursday evening and Upper Michigan late Friday. This system will have a little bit more moisture available than last night's system and colder air to work with, so snow amounts in northern and eastern Minnesota could reach shovelable levels, especially if the storm stalls a bit over the Great Lakes. In central Minnesota, we will have on-and-off light snow or flurries from Thursday evening perhaps into Saturday. None of the snow will be heavy, but the prolonged period for snow could drop a solid coating of snow. However, the new snow won't look like that, since the winds behind this system will blow at 15-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH from Thursday night through Saturday morning. There is a chance for wind gusts over 60 MPH in the Dakotas. Despite the melting snow cover, the combination of falling and blowing snow could produce pockets of near zero visibility.

Much Colder Friday Through Weekend

The other issue will be this second batch of cold air, which will be colder than what we get tomorrow. Thursday will have seasonable January temperatures in the 20's and readings could approach 30 Thursday night around midnight. But, after the cold front comes through, temperatures will be back in the 20's by Friday morning and in the teens by midday Friday. That will produce some wind chills in the minus single digits by Friday afternoon. The temperatures will continue to fall to near zero on Saturday morning, then get to 5 at best Saturday afternoon. The wind chills will be more serious, ranging between -30 and -15 from late Friday night well into Saturday morning.

After Saturday, the computer forecasts disagree about where the coldest of the second round of cold air ends up. Some forecasts keep it closer to Minnesota while others show moderation by Monday. They also disagree by a whole day about when the winds would ease up. So, I would expect much colder than average temperatures to continue through Monday (highs no better than the plus single digits to perhaps near 10; lows in the minus teens or -20s if the winds let up, otherwise in the minus single digits with serious wind chills). And, any recovery to near average temperatures would be uncertain. However, the persistent northwest-to-southeast flow pattern will keep precipitation potential low.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 1/13/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, blustery, and still mild. A slight chance of a sprinkle or flurry. High: between 38 and 43. Winds: WNW 8-15 MPH during the morning, NW 15-30 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Clearing, blustery, and colder. Low: between 8 and 13. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and -5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 1/14/2026: Sunny, windy, and colder. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH. Morning wind chill: between -15 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday Night: Clear evening, clouding up late at night, lighter winds, and cold. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, SW 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Thursday 1/15/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and milder with a chance of freezing rain or snow showers. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: S 8-15 MPH through the morning, SW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Thursday Night: Cloudy and blustery with a chance for flurries or snow showers during the evening. Evening temperatures between 30 and 35, then falling into the 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Friday 1/16/2026: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries, blustery, and turning colder. Between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow could fall from Thursday night through Friday. Temperatures falling through teens. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Afternoon wind chill: in the minus single digits. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Friday Night: Cloudy, blustery, and colder with a chance of flurries or occasional light snow. Serious wind chills. Low: between -3 and +3. Winds: Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: between -30 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 1/17/2026: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries, blustery, and colder. Between little accumulation and 2 inches of new snow are possible Friday night through Saturday. High: between 0 and +5. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during the morning, NW 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -15 during the morning, in the minus teens during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Much colder than average next weekend through Tuesday, but unsure how cold??? Any precipitation threat will be light????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday, 6 Monday night and Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 3 Thursday night, 2 Friday, 3 Weekend.

Yesterday's High: 41°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 30°F; Tuesday's High (through 2 AM): 40°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, January 14, 2026 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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