Friday, July 14, 2017 6:25 AM (last update until August)

(forecast appears below discussion)

Warm Up Back to Summer Levels for the Weekend

Foggy Thursday

The patch of low clouds that moved in from western Ontario and southern Manitoba stayed around all day yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), so temperatures were kept down in the 60's (see 3-day loop of high temperatures from NWS/University at Albany). The high of 66 in St. Cloud was within 5 degrees of the July 13 record cold low. Duluth only had a high of 57 degrees.

Sun Returns Today

We are still waking up (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart) to those low clouds (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations), but the area of clouds has shriveled quite a bit overnight (see Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product). That does mean we will break out of the clouds today and see a significant warm up. Highs will return to the upper 70's to near 80.

Hotter with Small Chance of Storms Saturday

However, the weekend will be dominated by another cycle of warm and more humid air pushing in, then slightly cooler air returning. The difference between this cycle and the one we saw on Sunday and Tuesday is that the chances for thunderstorms will be smaller. The fronts coming through won't be well supported by a decent low aloft and we will be closer to the core of the hot air, so there will be hot air aloft, reducing the chances for thunderstorms. There will be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late tonight, but the bulk of these storms will stay in northern Minnesota. The cold front will come through on Saturday during the morning or midday. Given the weak support for other showers and thunderstorms, this front may come through with only a wind shift from southwest to north around midday. The best chance for scattered thunderstorms Saturday will be off to our east.

So, the main effect of this surge of warmer air will be increasing humidity tonight into tomorrow with dew points climbing into the 60's. Lows tonight may drop to near 60 early, but will come up as the south winds stay up. Tomorrow, once we get rid of a few morning clouds, highs will make a strong run at 90 degrees. Southern Minnesota could see highs in the upper 90's.

Slightly Less Hot Sunday, Hotter Again Monday and Tuesday

Slightly cooler air will move in behind the front for Sunday. Highs will be only in the 80's.

The core of the hot and humid air will stay in the Northern and Central Rockies and adjacent parts of Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Nebraska, and the western Dakotas. So, it will be easy for another surge of the hot humid air to develop on Monday. Highs will again have a good shot at 90 on Monday and Tuesday. There could also be a better threat for showers and thunderstorms Monday night.

Overall, we will have near average to above average temperatures for much of next week.

Note: This is the last forecast update until the first couple of days of August. Enjoy the rest of July.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Eat Papers and the Rug While I'm Forecasting"

Friday 7/14/2017: Becoming sunny, warmer, and drier. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, and seasonably mild. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 7/15/2017: Partly sunny, breezy, and hot with increasing humidity. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High: between 90 and 95. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming NW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Nudge Me in the Leg for More Petting and Less Forecasting"

Saturday Night: Partly clear, mild and still noticeably humid. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 7/16/2017: Sunny, cooler, and less humid. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: E-SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Have Great Insight on That Storm Due 4 Days from Now"

Sunday Night: Partly clear and mild with a chance of a late night thunderstorm. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 7/17/2017: Morning clouds with a chance of thunderstorms, then partly sunny, hot, and humid in the afternoon. High: between 88 and 94. Winds: S 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday Night: Partly clear, very warm, and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 70 and 75. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH evening, becoming N 10-20 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Tuesday 7/18/2017: Sunny and hot, but not as humid. High: between 90 and 95. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: More storminess Monday night into Tuesday????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday, 6 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Sunday night and Monday, 2 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 66°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM): 58°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 6 AM Friday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (through 6 AM Friday): None

Next Update: August 2 or 3 (or as needed)

Links

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.