Wednesday, October 18, 2017 3:10 AM

Feelin' Warm, Warm, Warm

60's (and Possibly 70's) Rest of the Work Week

Yesterday, St. Cloud, Minnesota, and the whole northern half of the Plains became fully entrenched in the warmer air. High temperatures climbed well into the 70's in central Minnesota (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany) and even got to 81 degrees in Montevideo and Grand Forks. This is because we are now well entrenched in the warm air and we have the Asian beetles to prove it.

Overnight, the skies stayed clear (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) and the south winds have stayed up, so temperatures have remained in the 50's in most of Minnesota (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart).

Today, we will have a cold front, now just entering North Dakota (see NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map), push across Minnesota during the afternoon. There are some high and middle clouds along this front (see infrared satellite loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), but this warm air doesn't have much moisture near the ground, so there are only a few patches of rainfall (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). So, we will just lose some sunshine today, but that could be canceled out by our much warmer start. It adds up to another warm day with highs near or above 70 and some brisk southwest winds, turning over to the northwest.

Tonight, the slightly cooler air will build in and the winds will ease up, so lows will drop into the lower half of the 40's. However, the winds will pick right back up on Thursday with the return of mainly sunny skies. Thursday's highs will again be around 70 with highs climbing well into the 70's on Friday. That should be good for several more hatchings of Asian beetles and other flying things small enough to get through your screen window.

Chance of Some Saturday Showers

On Saturday, a stronger cold front will push through. This front will reach northern California Friday, bringing in moister air from off the Pacific and raising the chance of some rainfall over the fire ravaged areas of central California. For us, it will mean our best shot at some showers and even some thunderstorms. There is some disagreement about the timing of this front with the US computer forecast bringing the front through in the morning and the European model bringing it in during the afternoon. So, I'm just keeping a chance of showers out for Saturday. More clouds will knock our temperatures back to the 60's.

Sunday and Monday will still be mild, but not nearly as mild as Thursday and Friday. Highs will return to the 60's after morning starts in the 40's or even some 30's.

Confidence Level: "The Leaves Will Fall in My Yard"

Wednesday 10/18/2017: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and warm. High: between 68 and 74. Winds: becoming NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Wednesday Night: Partly clear with diminishing wind and a bit cooler. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Thursday 10/19/2017: Sunny, breezy and still seasonably warm. High: between 68 and 73. Winds: S 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%

Thursday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and mild. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 10/20/2017: Mostly sunny, windy, and warmer. High: between 72 and 78. Winds: S 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Confidence Level: "The Neighbors' Leaves Will Blow into My Yard"

Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and becoming noticeably humid. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 10/21/2017: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Not quite as warm. High: between 62 and 70. Winds: S 15-25 MPH, becoming NW in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%

Saturday Night: Clearing, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/22/2017: Sunny, but more seasonable. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Confidence Level: "The Yard Fairy Will Secretly Rake Up All of My Leaves During the Week"

Extended: Still seasonable on Monday with highs in the 60's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Will more of your hair fall out, Bob?"; 0 - "Will the winning PowerBall Numbers be encoded in your lost hair, Bob?"): 8 Wednesday through Friday, 5 Friday night, 4 Saturday through Sunday, 3 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 73°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 49°F 
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (through 3 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Thursday, October 19, 2017 8 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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