St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

The huge thunderstorm complex that developed Wednesday night over Nebraska (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) only brushed southern Minnesota yesterday morning. Worthington received 0.42 inch, Fairmont picked up 0.39 inch, and Albert Lea got 0.25 inch,  However, a line of storms developed over central Minnesota and moved west-to-east parallel to the line (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Sauk Centre did well, picked up 0.47 inch of rain during the morning, but St. Cloud only received 0.12 inch of rain (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), and Alexandria got 0.05 inch.

The main factor was the persistent clouds throughout the day, so high temperatures were held down into the 70's. Only parts of northern and northwestern Minnesota got into the 80's (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

Best Chance for Weekend Rain Tonight into Tomorrow

During the upcoming weekend, we will remain uncomfortably humid today, with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight and perhaps tomorrow, then drier and a bit cooler on Sunday. 

Warm and Sticky Today

There aren't any showers and thunderstorms on our immediate doorstep early this morning (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) as skies are actually clear (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). Highs will climb back into the 80's with more sunshine. 

Will We Get Significant Rain Overnight?

The next storm that pushed into Washington and Oregon (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) overnight will move into Manitoba by tomorrow morning. That will allow the most humid air over Iowa and Missouri (see red areas on the UCAR hourly dew point map) to seep northward. It appears that Minnesota's best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be tonight into tomorrow morning, but there will be a chance that the Saturday afternoon storms will develop close enough to central Minnesota to give us another chance for rain. Still, the rainfall potential may not be that great unless we get repeating storms (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There won't be great potential for severe storms either tonight or tomorrow.

Drier Saturday Night Through Sunday Night

The Saturday system will be followed by some air from Manitoba, so we should have a drier interlude as dew points fall back from the oppressive near 70 levels tomorrow back into the 50's by Sunday morning. Temperatures will begin near 60 degrees and end up in the upper 70's. The winds will calm down Sunday night, so there may be areas of dense fog with temperatures in the 50's.

Some Rain Potential Next Week, But Uncertain When (Mon Nt?)

We will remain fairly close to the main storm track, which will retain the relatively sticky dew points. So, any decent system could produce a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the area, but the forecast of any such system is uncertain by the time we get to next week. It appears that there could be a Monday night shower and thunderstorm chance, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. I am not as optimistic about the rainfall potential shown on the Days 4-5 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast, at least not right now. Through the middle and end of next work week, the computer forecasts are extremely inconsistent about which air mass we will be in and which day would have the best chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Still, we need the type of rain seen in central Minnesota both to the north and south of St. Cloud over the past month (red areas, meaning more than 5 inches, when you set NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota precipitation map to yesterday's date and last 30 days period). This week's US Drought Monitor, which didn't include yesterday's rainfall, shows the drought category expanding in North Dakota and Wisconsin, but with little change in Minnesota.

Smoke Will Continue to Dim Sunshine

When it is sunny, it will continue to be hazy due to the smoke from the western US and Canada wildfires (gray area on the EPA fire and smoke map). The ground air quality forecast continues to show little threat of serious conditions through the weekend.

Last Forecast Update Until September 3(?), 4(?)

This will be the last forecast until sometime during the first week of September. That also means that the summer and August 2026 St. Cloud weather summary won't be out until a few days into September.