Friday, June 23, 2017 3:30 AM

(forecast below this discussion)

April Relapse Through the Weekend

Few Showers This PM, Showers Likely Tomorrow

The showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak cold front moved from South Dakota into central and southern Minnesota yesterday morning and persisted through midday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The St. Cloud Airport picked up 0.29 inch of rain from these storms (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). The storms produced some golf ball-sized hail in Morristown in south central Minnesota after the storms produced 74 MPH wind gusts in Fergus Falls and baseball-sized hail near Lynd in the early morning hours of Thursday.

The cold front has now pushed by, but in this flow pattern from northwest to southeast, you can see two low pressure systems, one the counterclockwise circulation over Manitoba and the other the circulation at the north end of the satellite view over Saskatchewan (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The Manitoba one will push through northern Minnesota today. There aren't any showers now in northern Minnesota and North Dakota (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop), but as the sun heats the ground, the large temperature difference between the ground and 18,000 feet will create a lot of clouds and some on-and-off showers, mostly across northern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. In central Minnesota, there will be a lot of afternoon clouds and a few widely scattered afternoon showers, but I'd only give us a 2-in-10 chance of getting wet. So, there will be a much better chance for staying dry.

Much Cooler With Highs in the 60's, Lows in the 40's

The big change, however, will be the cooler air. Despite the relatively mild readings now (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart), temperatures will only climb to the upper 60's this afternoon. Given the strong northwest winds at 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH, that temperature will feel cooler, especially when clouds block out the sun from time to time. Most of the showers will clear out after the sun goes down this evening.

The Saskatchewan low will push right through central Minnesota tomorrow morning and midday. This will give us a much better chance of occasional rain showers any time of the day. There could be some prolonged periods of rain, much like yesterday. The main difference is that it will be much cooler with highs only reaching the lower 60's and strong northwest winds. 50's will rule in northern Minnesota.

Only a Slight Chance of a Sunday PM Shower

On Sunday, we will see a bit more sunshine with fewer afternoon clouds. I still can't rule out a scattered shower. Highs will return to the upper 60's to near 70. Each night from tonight through Monday night, lows could drop into the chilly 40's.

70's Return Monday

Monday will begin a warming trend with highs returning to the 70's and less of a chance of an isolated afternoon shower.

Warmer Tuesday and Wednesday??

By Tuesday, the high pressure area that has been sitting over the Southern Rockies, producing the heat wave from California to south Texas ( 100's spread also to parts of Utah, Colorado, and Kansas yesterday; see 3-day loop of high temperatures from NWS/University of Albany), will move into the Southern Plains. The Rockies will stay hot, but the Dakotas and Minnesota might finally sample the edge of the warmth. This could mean highs approaching 80 degrees on Tuesday and perhaps into the 80's next Wednesday. All computer forecasts agree, however, that the warmth may be short-lived with a storm coming through next Wednesday. We'll see about storm chances when we get closer to next Wednesday.

The heat will creep up the West Coast over the weekend. Even places like Portland, OR could see 100 degrees over the weekend with 90's possible in Seattle tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Cindy hit the Louisiana coast yesterday morning, with the leftover low over Louisiana overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The storm did produce a tornado in the Birmingham, AL area yesterday as well as some heavy rains in Alabama and Mississippi. There was one death on the Alabama coast as a boy was hit by a log in high surf. There are flood watches out from the Ohio Valley to parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Eat Papers and the Rug While I'm Forecasting"

Friday 6/23/2017: Morning sun, mostly cloudy midday and afternoon with a chance of a scattered rain shower, windy, and cooler. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, diminishing wind, and cooler. A slight chance of a shower. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 6/24/2017: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and continued cool with occasional showers. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Nudge Me in the Leg for More Petting and Less Forecasting"

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and cool. A slight chance of a rain shower. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 6/25/2017: Morning sun, afternoon clouds, breezy, and not quite as cool. A chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%

Sunday Night: Clearing and continued cool. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 6/26/2017: More sunshine, fewer afternoon clouds, not quite as breezy, and a bit warmer. A slight chance of an afternoon sprinkle. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Have Great Insight on That Storm Due 4 Days from Now"

Monday Night: Clear evening, some high clouds late. Not quite as cool. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: light NW, becoming SE 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 6/27/2017: Partly sunny, breezy, and a little closer to late June weather. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Extended: Warmer Wednesday??? Chance of thunderstorms???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday through Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday, 2 Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 73°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 55°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): 0.29 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): 0.33 inch

Next Update: Monday, June 26, 2017 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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