Tuesday, December 18, 2018  3:15 AM

Thaw to Continue Through Tomorrow

No December-like Cold Until At Least Saturday

It wasn't quite as balmy yesterday (see high temperature map from NWS/University at Albany), thanks to the slightly cooler air that pushed into Minnesota Sunday night. Still, temperatures climbed well up into the 30's. There's yet another surge of very mild air to our west, where high temperatures climbed into the 40's in the Dakotas and even 50's and a few 60's in Wyoming and Montana. That milder air began pushing over the cool air near the ground overnight, producing some high and middle clouds in the Dakotas (see Shortwave Albedo from Colorado State satellite slider menu) and keeping overnight temperatures in the 20's in most of Minnesota, except the Canadian border and the Arrowhead (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart). There has also been a southeast wind across much of the area.

We have this plunge into some really mild weather today and tomorrow. It won't be quite as sunny as yesterday with the middle clouds moving in at times, but highs should be able to climb a bit beyond 40 degrees. Tonight, the southeast winds will continue and there will be some partly clear skies. Lows will be in the 20's. There may be a few pockets of fog.

On Wednesday, the air mass will be the warmest over Minnesota, but we will have more middle clouds to deal with. There will be a few late day and early evening rain showers. The clouds will cancel out the warmer air mass temperatures, but we should have another shot at climbing beyond the 40 degree mark. The air near the ground is starting off this mild period with low pollution, so the air quality shouldn't degrade to the unhealthful levels seen a week ago.

Cooler air will move in for the end of the work week, but it will be nothing like what we had in early December and much of November. Sunshine will return and temperatures will climb well into the 30's with more of a northwest wind on Thursday. We might have a shot at a Friday morning low in the teens, but highs will rebound to the 30's on the shortest day of the year.

Over the weekend, more seasonably cold air (highs in the 20's) will move in. There may be a chance for some snow on Saturday, but that's hard to pin down right now. It does appear that temperatures will be closer to average over the weekend, but we'll see about next week.

Confidence Level: "The Bulb on That Hard-To-Reach Light in the Foyer Will Burn Out"

Tuesday 12/18/2018: Partly sunny, breezy, and milder. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and perhaps some areas of fog by morning. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Wednesday 12/19/2018: Mild with increasing clouds. A chance of a rain shower in the afternoon. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Every Time I Try to Put in a New Bulb, the Light Fixture Will Try to Detach From the Ceiling"

Wednesday Night: Perhaps an early evening shower, then breezy, and still milder than average. Low: between 28 and 34. Winds: becoming NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday 12/20/2018: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and cooler. Maybe a stray snowflake. High: between 32 and 36. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Only Way I'll Be Able to Change the Bulb and Hold the Fixture in Place Will Be to Yell At It

Thursday Night: Partial clearing with diminishing wind and cool. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 12/21/2018: Sunshine through high clouds, light winds, and a shade cooler. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: light SE. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance of light snow or flurries late. Low: between 22 and 26. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 12/22/2018: Cloudy with a chance of snow. Colder. High: between 26 and 32. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH, becoming NW late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Extended: Cold on Sunday

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump, Objecting to Me Yelling at the Light Bulb"; 0 - "I Will Be Hosting a DIY Show on Home Repairs"): 7 Monday and Monday night, 5 Tuesday through Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday, 3 Friday, 2 Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 35°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Tuesday): 24°F
St. Cloud Airport 24 Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, December 19, 2018 8 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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