Tuesday, July 8, 2025  5:40 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Reminders of When St. Cloud Was REALLY Cold, Hot

Nearing Major Anniversary of Temperature Milestones

I usually take time to note the anniversaries of St. Cloud's hottest and coldest outbreaks when the time nears, but both weather events will mark a major anniversary next year. The coldest outbreak in Minnesota weather records was from late January to February 4 of 1996, so next year will be its 30th anniversary. February 2 set the coldest temperature in Minnesota records when Tower fell to -60. It was also the last time that St. Cloud hit -40. St. Cloud had 6 straight mornings with temperatures of -30 and colder between late January and early February (from NWS Twin Cities NOWData, select St. Cloud area, and Jan. and Feb. of 1996). There have only been 6 days with a low of -30 or colder since 1996 and only 64 days total. St. Cloud had 20 straight days with a below zero low, tied for the 4th longest streak in St. Cloud records.

On the other hand, next year will mark the 90th anniversary of St. Cloud's hottest period on record (from NWS Twin Cities NOWData, select St. Cloud area, and July 1936). From July 5 to 18 of that year, St. Cloud had a high of 90 degrees each day, 9 of which topped 100 degrees. July 6-14 of 1936 still hold the record high temperature for each day and the record warm low for July 7-13. The 107 degrees on July 13, 1936 tied the all-time St. Cloud record high (set on 2 days in July 1934).

Of the 60 days with 100 degree highs in St. Cloud records, only 11 have occurred since 1950, 7 of which happened in 1988.

Few 100 Highs, -30 Lows Mean What for Climate Trends? (Not an Apples to Apples Comparison)

So, neither 100 degree highs nor -30 lows have been frequent especially during the past 30 years, several of which have ranked in St. Cloud's warmest years on record (6 years since 2000 in the top 11). As originally noted in the May 2025 St. Cloud weather summary, there have been far more warm records set than cold ones. Updating for June 2025 (3 record warm temperature records, 1 record cold temperature record), there have now been 111 record warm temperatures set since 2020 and 22 record temperatures set. While some of the record warm temperatures have been set in June, the only 100 degree high temperature record was June 20, 2022. Many daily temperature records have merely been pushing relatively cooler record temperatures a few degrees higher. July hasn't had a record warm high since July 2, 2012. The last August record warm high was August 22, 2023.

How does any of this make sense in the context of global warming? First of all and most importantly, the weather at any one place can't be used to judge whether global climate change is going on, since there are warm and cold spots on the globe in any month (note that May 2025 was very warm worldwide, but the global maps show that Texas was a little cooler than average and northern Alaska, as well as eastern Europe, was much cooler than average). If we are looking for similarities between the predictions between a warmed climate and the recent trends, St. Cloud is in the interior of a northern latitude continent. That's where the predictions of a new climate have the most warming. And, the most warming would be during the cooler season, as often snow-covered ground is replaced by bare ground which can warm more easily. The recent years in St. Cloud are consistent with those trends (most above average temperatures are not during the summer), but I can only say that they resemble the predictions, not prove (nor disprove) global warming. The best proof is still the trend in global temperatures, but only comparing the past 30 years with previous 30-year periods.

What should you take from the above? This summer so far has been slightly warmer than average (mostly on the force of warm low temperatures due to the persistent high humidity) and much wetter. The only notable trends that resemble rare records was the 80-degree low in June (first in June records, only 7th all time) and the now 2 lows of at least 75 degrees (1 in July), which has only happened in two years since 1960. We'll see how that holds up.

Yesterday's system produced a line of showers and thunderstorms (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) that produced a small amount of St. Cloud rain (0.05 inch, see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). There have been 'only' 2 of 7 July days with measurable rain, while June had 16, including 6 of the final 11 days. And, I can only point to some time on Thursday and/or Friday as having good chances for rain the rest of the work week. Still, the lingering humidity (dew points no lower than the upper 50's to near 60 today and climbing well into 60's, perhaps near 70, by Thursday) means at least a 1 in 5 chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday.

Thursday (Especially Overnight) Storm Threat Uncertain

That next major storm system is due to push a cold front into Minnesota some time on Thursday. This is where the source of the storm over the northeastern Pacific is causing the most problems, because the computer forecasts are uncertain about how quickly the cold front gets pushed into Minnesota. All of the information indicate that the front will slowly move through Minnesota, much like the one last Saturday. The bottom line is that there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance appears to be either late Thursday night or Friday morning or Friday afternoon into the evening (or both). The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a severe thunderstorm chance to our west on Thursday (see Day 4 on the Days 4-8 convective outlook), but don't outline an area for Friday, mainly because the slow storm progress means that the location of the leftover storms Friday morning will play a large role on where the storms redevelop Friday afternoon. And, any areas getting slow-moving thunderstorms or more than one line of thunderstorm will have at least some potential for flooding (see Day 4 on the NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook), but it's hard to pin down any area (that's why the threat is category 1 of 4 over a relatively large area). Note also the area of more than an inch on the Days 4-5 NWS WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.

I've lowered the chance for storms on Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening because of the slower progress. If we get complete sunshine on Thursday, temperatures may again approach 90 degrees with dew points getting close to the sultry lower 70's. Like last Saturday, Friday will probably have a lot of clouds with an uncertain chance for sun, but very uncomfortable humidity.

If The Thursday Forecast is Shaky, Friday and Saturday are ?????!!!!

The end of the showers from the late work week system bring uncertain forecast chances for the weekend. Cooler air will move in, but how cool the air will be is under debate. Also, the threat of lingering showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoons, is difficult to pin down since the strength of the upper air low and where is will be varies so widely. At this point, I'd rate highs in the 70's (to perhaps 80 if we are sunnier) is the most confident part of the Friday and Saturday forecast, but the rain chances are very uncertain. 80's would be more likely on Sunday, but I am uncertain whether that warming will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms as the warmer air moves in.

It will still take a couple of days for the weather pattern that has produced thunderstorms in Texas to completely dry out, but the storms were more isolated yesterday and will be again the next two days. Still, any additional rain on saturated ground will be a problem.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 7/8/2025: Partly cloudy, breezy, and warm with uncomfortable humidity. A slight chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and slightly cooler with perhaps a slight drying. Some patchy morning fog. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: N-NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 7/9/2025: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds, light winds, and continued warm and uncomfortably humid. A slight chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy and warmer with increasing humidity. A slight chance for scattered showers or thunderstorms. Low: between 63 and 68. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 7/10/2025: Partly sunny with a stronger breeze and very warm with uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Thursday Night: Continued warm with uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 63 and 68. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday 7/11/2025: Showers and thunderstorms possible both early in the morning and during the afternoon. Oppressively humid. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Friday Night: Cloudy and not quite as humid. Uncertain chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Saturday 7/12/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with a slight chance of afternoon showers. Seasonably warm with marginal humidity. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: W-SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: A bit cooler on Saturday??? Uncertain chance for Saturday showers??? Unsure about Sunday.....

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Tuesday through Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 2 Thursday night through Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 83°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Tuesday): 62°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 5 AM Tuesday): 0.05 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Tuesday): 0.07 inch

Next Update: Wednesday, July 9, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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