Wednesday, April 25, 2018 3:40 AM

Slightly Cooler, But Nothing Like Earlier in the Month

Clouds and Spotty Showers Held Temperatures Down

The cold front that pushed through early yesterday morning (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC surface weather maps) ended up having quite the effect on temperatures. Clouds hung around for much of the day (see Shortwave Albedo from Colorado State satellite slider menu) and there were even some sprinkles and rain showers in the middle part of the day. That kept temperatures from even making it to 60 degrees in central Minnesota (see 3-day loop of NWS/SUNY-Albany high temperature map). Those clouds managed to clear out late at night, so temperatures have fallen to near or below freezing in central and northern Minnesota (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart).

More Sun Today

We will continue to be just short of average temperatures today as highs climb to about 60 degrees. I am expecting more sunshine than yesterday.

Cold Fronts Due Early Tomorrow and Late Friday

For the rest of this week into the early part of the weekend, the northwest to southeast steering winds (see College of DuPage GOES-16 water vapor loop) will resume pushing weather systems to near or just across the US-Canadian border. This means that a couple of cold fronts are in our future. The next one will move through central Minnesota by early tomorrow morning. That will push the patch of clouds over Alberta and Saskatchewan into Minnesota by late tonight and possibly trigger some rain showers from the early morning hours into midday. The clouds and wind will help keep low temperatures to near 40 or possibly the upper 30's tonight. However, the colder air and a good deal of clouds will keep readings in the 50's to near 60 at best on Thursday. There will also be strong northwest winds at 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

Another cold front will push through late on Friday. However, in both cases, we will only see a glancing blow from the cold air. So, high temperatures will rebound into the 60's on Friday and remain near 60 on Saturday. Lows will likely be in the 30's.

Warming Trend Begins Late in Weekend

As the weekend moves on, there will be a change in the flow pattern as a strong high pressure system is expected to set up over the Southeast US. This would change the steering winds to a more southwest-to-northeast pattern, which would, at least at the start, favor warmer air pushing into the Northern Plains. Sunday's temperatures should recover nicely from near freezing lows to climb well into the 60's and perhaps near 70. How warm we can get early next week will depend on how many showers and thunderstorms develop where the warmer air moves over the top of the colder air near the ground. If we get a good supply of sun, highs will easily make it into the 70's, but we'll see.

Trees Are Budding, Meaning High Pollen

In the meantime, the persistent sunshine and dry weather will continue to cause trees to bud, so the pollen levels will remain very high (more than 10 on a 12 point scale). This doesn't count the mold spores that have emerged with the thawing ground. The levels are slightly lower the rest of the week as slightly cooler temperatures could be around. However, strong wind days like tomorrow and Friday could easily offset the cooler weather.

Flooding, Especially on Red, Minnesota, Mississippi Rivers,This Week

The flood warnings continue along many central and southern Minnesota rivers. Flood levels are expected to be higher along the Minnesota River downstream of Mankato. The flooding along the Redwood River is now expected to affect Marshall, Russell, and Redwood Falls. A new flood warning has been issued along the Mississippi River from Brainerd to Fort Ripley and downstream of the Minnesota River in Hastings. The high waters of the Mississippi are expected to remain in St. Cloud through the end of the week with some minor flooding possible. And the flooding along the Red River continues with Grand Forks expected to crest tonight and begin to recede, but still rising water at Oslo. Two roads in northwestern Minnesota are closed between Oslo and Drayton. experiencing moderate flooding and tributaries in Warren and Hallock having minor flooding.

Actual Ice Out in One Minnesota Lake

Lake Pepin remains the only lake with ice out as of yesterday. Of course, with the deeper snow cover recently over southern Minnesota, some central Minnesota lakes could beat out the southern lakes for ice out in the next week. Yesterday's visible satellite loop from College of DuPage still shows the larger lakes Minnesota ice-covered once the low clouds cleared out.

Confidence Level: "I Will be Up Early to Make the Forecast"

Wednesday 4/25/2018: Sunny and seasonably warm. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear and not quite as cool. A slight chance of a rain shower late. Low: between 38 and 42. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH, becoming NW late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 4/26/2018: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance of a morning shower. Breezy, and seasonably cool. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: becoming NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear with light winds during the evening, becoming a bit breezier by morning. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: SW, increasing to 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 4/27/2018: Sunny, windy, and seasonably warm. High: between 60 and 66. Winds: W-NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, a bit breezy, and cool. Low: between 32 and 38. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 4/28/2018: Sunny, light winds, and not quite as warm. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will See the Light On and Want Petting Instead of Forecasting"

Saturday Night: Partly clear, turning a bit breezy late at night, and cool. Low: between 32 and 38. Winds: light evening, SE 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 4/29/2018: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, and warmer. High: between 66 and 74. Winds: S 15-30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Shed Information on the Upcoming Weather, Rather Than Just Fur in My Hand"

Extended: Maybe some showers Sunday night?? Relatively warm first part of next week??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Will more of your hair fall out, Bob?"; 0 - "Will the winning PowerBall Numbers be encoded in your lost hair, Bob?"): 8 Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night through Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, hursday through Friday, 2 Weekend.

Yesterday's High: 57°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Wednesday): 32°F
St. Cloud Airport 24 Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Weduesday): TBA

Next Update: Thursday, April 26, 2018 8 AM (or as needed)

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