Friday, November 24, 2025  3:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Clouds Threw Wrench into Yesterday's Mild Highs, But They Are Coming

Have I Learned My Lesson About Late Fall Clouds? Nope

I will not try to clear low clouds in November! I will not try to clear low clouds in November! I will not try to clear low clouds in November! I will not try to clear low clouds in November! I will not try to clear low clouds in November! I will not try to clear low clouds in November!

November and December are the cloudiest months of the year in central Minnesota. Low clouds are often the problem. The way to get rid of low clouds is to bring drier air into the area. When the winds are light, we can't get the drier air from somewhere near the ground. The only way to bring in drier air is to have the cloudless air above the low cloud layer mix down to the ground. During the warmer part of the year, the sun is high enough and warm enough to often warm the ground through the low clouds. When the ground is warmer than the air above, the atmosphere develops a vertical circulation to bring the cooler, but drier air down to the ground, dissipating the clouds.

Late in the year, however, the sun is low in the sky and up for some of the shortest times. So, the chances of some sunshine getting through the low clouds and reaching the ground are small. There is often lingering low moisture after a cold front comes through. And, when warmer air is trying to move in, it tends to rise over the leftover cool air. That lift reinforces the clouds, so it is even harder to break through them. For these reasons, clouds tend to persist, as they did yesterday. So, temperatures remained in the 40's (see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), instead of reaching my forecast lower 50's.

The clear skies from the Dakotas (sky circles clear on that 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) have moved in overnight (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop), so temperatures are much cooler this morning (in the 20's; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). There is a fog bank from southwestern Minnesota into South Dakota ahead of the storm moving northward into southern Kansas (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), but notice that the northern edge of the clouds (see College of DuPage North America shortwave infrared satellite loop) is having trouble getting into southern South Dakota and northern Iowa. That means the high pressure area to the north (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) is still in control.

Warming Should Happen Over Weekend

So, I will go with more sunshine today. The air mass is cooler than the one we had yesterday, so highs will again reach the middle 40's, but it will feel nicer without the stubborn low-level moisture and sprinkles we had yesterday.

We are still set-up for a warmer weekend into Monday. Highs should be into the 50's on Saturday, when I expect a good supply of sun, and around 50 Sunday and Monday, when there will be more clouds. Low temperatures will be in the 20's.

The two streams of the main storm track (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will continue into next week. The strongest storms will remain along the southern storm track, dropping southeastward from the eastern Pacific into California and the Southwest, then continuing into the Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. That will allow us to remain mostly dry through the weekend (see Days 1-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Huge Change in Weather Pattern After Monday Night

By early next week, a stronger storm, now southwest of the Aleutian Islands on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider, will move along the northern stream. Since this system will be stronger, it will have a better chance to wring some precipitation out of the air. And, there is the possibility that the current California storm (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will allow some of its moisture to get pulled into the northern stream storm. That will allow for a better chance for some light rain, beginning sometime Monday afternoon or Monday evening and continuing into Tuesday. That will be our next shot at precipitation (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Will There Be Pre-Thanksgiving Snow? More Likely in Northern Minnesota and Along Lake Superior South Shore

Having the northern storm track become dominant early next week means that some of the colder air in northwestern Canada and northern Alaska (highs from the plus single digits into the teens on the 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will push in behind the cold front. That will allow much colder air into Minnesota from Tuesday night through the Thanksgiving holiday and into Friday. High temperatures will get knocked down to the lower 30's or even the 20's. There will be strong winds, especially from Tuesday night through Wednesday, so wind chills will be in the teens and perhaps some single digits for stronger gusts. Will we see any snow from this colder air? The odds of occasional snow showers or flurries are good Tuesday night into Wednesday when the upper air low passes over northern and central Minnesota. However, the chances for accumulating snow would be best if some of the cold air works in quickly behind the cold front. Since the timing of that cold front is uncertain (sometime between Monday night and Tuesday), I only have a chance for flurries on Tuesday afternoon. There could be a better chance for major accumulating snow in northern Minnesota (see Day 5 on the NWS WPC winter weather outlook), but even St. Cloud has a low probability of a quarter inch of liquid falling as snow (light green) area, which is why I am mentioning the possibility now. The most certain threat for a major snowfall will be Wednesday and Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, since the much colder air behind the storm will pass over the warmer waters of the lake. Multiple inches will be likely in those areas.

Major Storm Threat Post-Thanksgiving? Too Early to Count On, But It's Good to be Alert

The extreme range forecasts are trying to move another West Coast system into the Plains states sometime over the weekend. The computer forecasts varying widely in timing and location. For now, they are trying to get the two storm tracks working together, which would pose a snowfall threat somewhere in the northern and central Plains. That's way too vague to change travel plans (and that's my message: be aware of the changes in the forecast, but little action is needed yet).

Winter Hazards Awareness Week Nov 17-21

Today is the last day of Winter Hazards Awareness Week in Minnesota (also see page from NWS Duluth) and Wisconsin. Preparations for driving, including the cold weather winter survival kit for your car, are covered. The colder weather expected for the middle and end of next week won't have the dangerous wind chills, but there will be some pockets of snow, as noted above, Tuesday into Tuesday night, and an uncertain chance for snow during the weekend after Thanksgiving. Other information is available on winter topics from the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 11/21/2025: Sunny, light winds, and not as moist. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Clear with light winds early, then increasing clouds, a bit of a breeze, and milder late. Low: between 27 and 32, then temperatures rising through the 30's after midnight. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 11/22/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and cooler. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, diminishing late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 11/23/2025: Sunshine dimmed by high clouds, breezy, and still mild. High: between 48 and 53. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear and continued mild, but with a biting breeze. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 11/24/2025: Clouding up, breezy, and mild with a chance for an afternoon rain shower. High: between 47 and 53. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Monday Night: Cloudy with a good chance of rain showers, a biting breeze. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH, becoming NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Tuesday 11/25/2025: Cloudy with rain showers ending early, then mixed clouds and sun, windy, turning colder. Maybe some sprinkles or flurries during the afternoon. High: between 45 and 50, falling into the 30's during the afternoon. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH during the morning, NW 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 40%.

Extended: Colder Tuesday night through Friday (highs in 20's or lower 30's; lows in teens or 20's; wind chills in plus single digits or teens)??? Windy with some light snow or flurries Wednesday???? Uncertain chance for precipitation next weekend???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Friday through Saturday, 5 Saturday night through Sunday night, 4 Monday and Monday night, 3 Tuesday through Black Friday

Yesterday's High: 45°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Friday): 23°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): Trace

Next Update: Monday, November 24, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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