Tuesday, July 1, 2025  2:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Partly Cloudy, Chance of Showers

Central Minnesota had two waves of Monday showers and thunderstorms. The pre-dawn storms zeroed in on the St. Cloud area (set day to yesterday on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map) with just short of an inch at the St. Cloud Regional Airport. We had a lot more sunshine than I had expected through the middle of the day, then those scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the middle afternoon due to the big temperature difference between the ground and the cool air pocket aloft (see daylight hours on the College of DuPage visible north central US satellite loop and see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Those showers were brief and spotty with only a trace of rain at the St. Cloud Regional Airport.

The center of yesterday's upper-air low has moved on to Lake Superior, Ontario, and Wisconsin. However, the northern tier of the US between the Pacific and the Great Lakes will remain near the main storm track (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), now in the central Canadian Prairie Provinces, but forecast to move closer to the US-Canadian border and become more west-to-east during the rest of the week. Despite being well to the north of the front separating the sultry air to the south from the merely warm air to the north (see 4 PM Monday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), the air continues to be noticeably (upper 50's dew points, yellow) to uncomfortably (lower 60's dew points, brown on the UCAR hourly dew point map) humid, so there is plenty of moisture available. As the parade of weak storms moves from the eastern Pacific, I'm having more difficulty finding a day I can rule out at least the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The best chance still appears to be when the next major system shoves the front to our south back into central and perhaps northern Minnesota. That will come some time Thursday afternoon or evening, so I have a 40% chance for thunderstorms at that time. Then, the next good chance will be when the front is pushed back to the south of us by a stronger low moving along the front. That will come some time on Friday night into Saturday morning. Some of the storms could produce severe weather, although the low pressure triggering the storms doesn't appear to generate as good a severe weather set-up as we saw several times last week. The timing is also uncertain, so Independence Day fireworks are still not a sure thing. I also don't have a huge amount of confidence that the bulk of the storms will remain near the Minnesota-Canadian border (as shown on the Days 4-5 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Aside from those times, I have a blanket 1 in 3 chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms from tomorrow through Saturday evening. Temperatures will return to the middle 80's today and tomorrow, but we will have a shot at 90 degrees on Thursday, if the warm front gets past us during the afternoon, and Friday, when we will on the warm side of that front. Thursday night is likely to be a sweltering night with lows in the 70's, since the bulk of the thunderstorms will be to our north and there will be a strong south wind blowing.

The front will hang up somewhere in southern Minnesota on Saturday. I am not sure whether the front will get far enough to our south and east on Saturday to allow us to see a lot of afternoon sun, so I have highs in the lower half of the 80's. The humidity could still be quite oppressive.

Canadian air has a chance to push into Minnesota on Sunday and Monday, but the forecasts can't agree on how cool the air will be, so I am not ready to keep highs in the 70's. I am also not sure that we will see the air dry any more than it has last night, so humidity may still be uncomfortable.

So again, I'm stuck with a "partly cloudy, chance of showers" forecast for the next 5 days.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 7/1/2025: More sunshine mixed with fewer midday and afternoon clouds, breezy, and warmer. A slight chance for an afternoon sprinkle. Still noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. High: between 83 and 88. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, still warm, and a shade humid. A slight chance for a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday 7/2/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, warm, and uncomfortably humid. A chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 83 and 88. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, warmer, and uncomfortably humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 63 and 68. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Thursday 7/3/2025: Perhaps an early shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, a mixture of clouds and some sun, warm, and uncomfortably to oppressively humid. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 86 and 92. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30% in the morning, 40% in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Perhaps an early evening shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, very warm, and breezy with oppressive humidity. Low: between 70 and 75. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday 7/4/2025: Mixture of clouds and some sun, very warm, and oppressively humid. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 86 and 92. Winds: SW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, very warm, and breezy with uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 68 and 74. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday 7/5/2025: A good chance for morning showers and thunderstorms, then mixed clouds and sun, not as warm, but still uncomfortably to oppressively humid. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% during the morning, 30% during the afternoon.

Extended: Seasonably warm Sunday into Monday (highs near or just above 80) with uncertain storm chances??? Still uncomfortably humid???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 5 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 3 Thursday through Friday night, 2 Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 80°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 65°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): Trace (0.99 inch since midnight Sunday night); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None (0.83 inch since midnight Sunday night)

Next Update: Wednesday, July 2, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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