Thursday, May 25, 2017 2:20 AM

(forecast below this discussion)

Brightening for Late Work Week...

There still were a lot of lingering clouds across Minnesota yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), but St. Cloud got through the day dry for the only the third time in the past 10 days. High temperatures didn't get much beyond where they were on Tuesday, topping out in the lower 60's (see 3-day loop of high temperatures from NWS/University at Albany). The low level clouds have eroded a bit more overnight, but temperatures have remained in the 40's to near 50 (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart).

Our warming trend will finally return us to near average temperatures for late May, meaning that we will see temperatures climb back into the 70's over the next three days. That doesn't guarantee dry days, however. A warm front will approach Minnesota this afternoon, so there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and especially overnight. The chance won't be huge, however. We should see more sunshine than we have during most of the work week thus far.

Tomorrow should be a gorgeous day and, unfortunately, the best day of the long weekend most likely. After a few morning clouds, we will break out into sunshine and temperatures will climb well into the 70's.

By Saturday, however, the slow moving storm now moving across southwestern Canada will begin to push southeastward. This will trigger a lot of afternoon clouds with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be able to make it into the 70's again, but it won't be as bright and sunny as on Friday.

...But More Showers Over the Weekend

It now appears that the cold front from this system will push through Minnesota late Saturday, and the upper-level low will follow the front, moving into Minnesota for Sunday and Monday. That will create a lot of clouds, cooler temperatures, and the chance for occasional rain or showers. The most likely time for rain will be Sunday midday through evening. Temperatures will be knocked down to the 60's both Sunday and Monday.

Again, the showers I am forecasting will be scattered and relatively brief. So, I wouldn't cancel any outdoors plans, but I would be prepared for some periods of rain during any outdoor activities.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Eat Papers and the Rug While I'm Forecasting"

Thursday 5/25/2017: Partly sunny, breezy, and seasonably warm. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 68 and 73. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain shower. Mild. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Nudge Me in the Leg for More Petting and Less Forecasting"

Friday 5/26/2017: Early clouds and perhaps a lingering shower giving way to abundant sunshine, breezy, and warmer. Sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 72 and 76. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and mild. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Have Great Insight on That Storm Due 4 Days from Now"

Saturday 5/27/2017: Morning sun, lots of afternoon clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH with gusty winds in storms. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Still mild. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 5/28/2017: Rapidly becoming mostly cloudy with a better chance of occasional midday and afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Cooler. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: W 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain or drizzle. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 5/29/2017: Morning clouds with perhaps some lingering rain or drizzle. Mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon with still a chance of a widely scattered shower. Breezy, and cooler. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Extended: Lots of clouds with occasional showers through Wednesday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 6 Thursday and Thursday night, 5 Friday and Friday night, 3 Saturday through Sunday, 2 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 61°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM): 46°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Next Update: Friday, May 26, 2017 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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