Tuesday, October 28, 2025  2:15 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Cool Rain, Especially in Western and Central Minnesota; Hurricane Melissa to Clobber Jamaica, Cuba

The long-promised rain episode began overnight (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) as the slow-moving cold front eased eastward (see north-south band of College of DuPage clean infrared satellite loop). The slow-moving pattern will continue today as the southern piece of the large low pressure system over western North America moves from the Dakotas (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) moves into Nebraska and Kansas today. This will keep the thick clouds and periods of rain over western and central Minnesota, although the rain will become more occasional as the day wears on. There is a chance that far less rain falls east of the Mississippi to the St. Croix Valley. Even the Twin Cities could see less rain than St. Cloud and Alexandria (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The combination of clouds, light rain, and a southeast winds will mean that temperatures will remain close to the early morning levels (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) with highs remaining in the 40's and the 1 AM temperature of 48 possibly being today's high temperature (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

The piece of the low sagging to the Lower Mississippi Valley will drift through the Southeast over the next couple of days, allowing drier air circulating around the Quebec high pressure system (see 4 PM Monday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so we will see some sunshine tomorrow and Thursday. Highs will return to the lower 50's after an upper 30's low tomorrow. Highs will get back to the middle 50's after some early fog and lows in the middle 30's on Thursday.

The blocking effect of the high in eastern Canada and the slow-moving southeast low will set up northwest-to-southeast steering winds from late this week well into next week. A reinforcing cold front will push into Minnesota on Thursday night and its upper-air low will drift over Minnesota on Friday. That system will have much less moisture available than today's system, but there will be a lot of lingering clouds on Friday with a few light showers. Temperatures will be colder than we have today, so there will be a chance that a few of the sprinkles could fall as flurries. Overall, I only have a 1 in 3 shot at seeing the streets wet on Friday. The small chance for flurries will not likely produce any brief coating of snow. Temperatures will only be in the upper 30's to lower 40's on Friday with temperatures in the 30's during any precipitation.

From Saturday into Monday, there will be a chance for more fast-moving northwest-to-southeast moving storm systems. None of these systems will carry much moisture, but the timing for any sprinkles or flurries varies between the computer forecasts. I have highs in the 40's on Saturday, but I can only produce a forecast of either average temperatures or cooler than average temperatures from Sunday into early next week.

Overnight, Hurricane Melissa drifted westward parallel to the Jamaican coast (see southeast corner of the College of DuPage clean infrared satellite loop), but made a slow turn to the northeast late at night (see zoomed-in infrared satellite close-up from University of Wisconsin SSEC). The storm is due to make landfall this morning, carrying top winds of over 170 MPH. That will produce tornado-like wind damage over a wide area, major coastal flooding, and inland flooding and landslides due to ridiculous rainfall. Damage has been already taking place in southern Jamaica during the past day. The storm is due to strike eastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas tomorrow. And much of Haiti could also see major flooding.

The damage is likely to be similar to Hurricane Dorian, which stalled across two larger islands of the Bahamas in 2019, or Hurricane Maria that devastated Puerto Rico in 2017. The rainfall will be close to the amount of rain seen in the Houston area from Hurricane Harvey in 2017.

You'll see plenty of reminders this week, but Daylight Savings Time ends this upcoming Saturday, November 1. Turn the clocks back one hour before you go to bed Saturday night.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 10/28/2025: Cloudy with occasional rain or showers. Cooler. High: between 43 and 48. Winds: SE-E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 90%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and raw. Occasional rain during the evening, tapering off to spotty drizzle late at night. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60% evening, 30% after midnight.

Wednesday 10/29/2025: Cloudy with perhaps some spotty drizzle during the morning, then becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. Seasonably cool. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NE-N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20% during the morning, 10% during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear with light winds and areas of fog. Cooler. More clouds late at night. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: light E evening, SE 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 10/30/2025: Mixed clouds and sun and a bit milder. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Thursday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and cool. A slight chance for a late night rain shower. Low: between 33 and 38. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH, becoming NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 10/31/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and colder. A chance for spotty rain showers or snow flurries. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy and cooler. A chance for sprinkles or flurries. Low: between 33 and 36. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Saturday 11/1/2025: Lots of clouds with a few sunny breaks, light winds, and continued cold. A slight chance for a stray sprinkle or flurry. High: between 43 and 48. Winds: NE-SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Extended: Continued cooler than average through Saturday and no milder than average Sunday into early next week?? Uncertain chances for light rain.....or flurries over the weekend???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 3 Thursday night through Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 61°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 47°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): 0.12 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): TBA

Next Update: Wednesday, October 29, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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