Friday, September 13, 2024  2:40 AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Leaving You With (What Else) Partly Cloudy, Chance of Showers

Best Chance of Weekend Showers (1 in 3) on Saturday

With the low-level smoke easing (see EPA Fire and Smoke Map), although we will still see hazy sun through the middle atmosphere smoke today, the main weather issue upsetting potential August-like or even July-like warmth (highs in the low or even middle 80's) and noticeable to uncomfortable humidity (dew points upper 50's to lower 60's; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) is the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The current Montana low means that the showers and thunderstorms from Montana into North Dakota overnight (set number of frames to at least 96 on the College of DuPage north central US map) are moving more northward into Canada rather than eastward. There will be a small chance for showers and thunderstorms as this low gets steered northeastward and the next low follows it from the Alaska south coast (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) into California by Sunday. The best chance appears to be tomorrow with the first low over Canada and perhaps a little moisture leaking in from the northwestern remnants of Hurricane Francine (showers seen in Missouri on the College of DuPage north central US map). But, these storms will be few and far between (see Days 1-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There is also very little chance for severe weather. However, more clouds could hold high temperatures closer to 80 tomorrow than they will be today or Sunday.

Better Chance for Storms Some Time in the Middle or Second Half of Next Week

Eventually, the Alaskan low reaching California on Sunday will drift through the Northern Rockies and into the Plains. That would again produce at least more clouds to cut back on highs in the middle (or perhaps upper 80's) and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. However, it doesn't appear that Minnesota has a better than 1 in 3 chance for showers until at least Tuesday night. At this point, the rest of next work seems to hold a better chance for showers, but there is the usual uncertain of who might get a significant amount of rain that far in advance (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

The update statistics on Francine show 5-plus inch rainfalls inland as far as Arkansas and 100-plus MPH wind gusts in Louisiana.

Next Forecast: Monday, September 23

There will be no forecasts next week. Janet and I are taking this time to spread the ashes of our late daughter Shirley (died August 2023) around some of her favorite hiking places on the North Shore. Did you know that it is legal to put the ashes of any person in a body of water in Minnesota without a permit? The forecast will return on Monday, September 23.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 9/13/2024: Partly sunny, breezy, and still very warm with noticeable humidity. High: between 83 and 88. (record warm high: 91 in 1927, 1939, 1998) Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Partly clear and continued warm. Noticeably to uncomfortably humid. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 9/14/2024: Mixed clouds and sun, warm, and uncomfortably humid with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear,warm, and uncomfortably humid. A slight chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 67. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 9/15/2024: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and continued warm and humid. A slight chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 87. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, warm, and still uncomfortably humid. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 67. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 9/16/2024: Mixed clouds and sun, windy, and continued warm and humid. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 87. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Monday Night: Partly clear, breezy, warm, and still uncomfortably humid. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 67. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Tuesday 9/17/2024: Mixed clouds and sun, windy, and continued warm and humid. A slight chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 87. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Above average warmth into next week??? Better chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through the end of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Friday, 5 Friday night through Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 86°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 65°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, September 23, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.