Monday, December 15, 2025  2:25 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

We're Out of the Atmospheric Meat Locker!

One Day of Zero or Colder, One Morning With -20..

St. Cloud had its one day without a temperature above zero on Saturday and managed to get to -20 on Sunday morning, the most extreme period we've had since the cold moved in after the Thanksgiving week snows (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). The wind chills got as cold as -31 early Sunday (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

...But Temperatures Have Been Rising Ever Since

However, temperatures have been on the way up ever since early yesterday. St. Cloud reached the plus single digits yesterday afternoon and temperatures have climbed into the lower teens early Monday morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), 20-30 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday (note the 30-40 degree temperature drops along the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas; that's where the most complaining about the cold will be). There is still a breeze early this morning, but the milder temperatures have kept wind chills in the minus single digits (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up).

The milder air moving over the leftover cold air has produced some middle clouds (green and yellow areas that are moving on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). That lift has also squeezed the air enough to produce some radar echoes that pushed through northern and central Minnesota overnight (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but the very dry air near the ground has allowed very little of the snow to reach the ground (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). A few flurries or some fog is possible early this morning.

20's Today, Above Freezing Tomorrow (40's?) and Wednesday (30's)

Otherwise, the promised warm-up will happen. To the west of the warm front, where the air that has descended the eastern slopes of the Rockies has reached the ground, highs were in the 40's and 50's in southern Alberta and much of Montana and Wyoming (see 3 PM Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The deep snow cover over Minnesota (see NWS NOHRSC snow depth map) will keep the 50's out of Minnesota, but we will see a return to average temperatures (highs in the 20's) today with much warmer than average temperatures (upper 30's to lower 40's) likely tomorrow and above freezing temperatures on Wednesday.

Next Storm System Wednesday Night and Thursday...

During the second half of the week, a more west-to-east steering wind flow, seen from the northeastern Pacific into Saskatchewan and Manitoba (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), will allow a parade of storm systems to move from the eastern Pacific, to the south of the Alaska low (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). They will run along the zone of huge temperature change between slabs from the mother lode of arctic air in the Yukon and air warmed by the sinking over the Rockies. This means the storms could be strong, meaning strong winds in the vicinity. However, no storm is forecast to move southwest-to-northeast, so there will be very limited moisture available. In these cases, the bulk of the precipitation will be along and northeast of the storm track.

The next system is forecast to be in south central Canada Wednesday night and Thursday. The best chance for accumulating snow will be in northern Minnesota into Canada (see Days 3-5 on the NWS WPC quantative precipitation forecast), although the track of this system could still change before then.

...With the Main Effect Being Falling Thursday Temperatures (Still Not as Cold as Last Weekend)

In central Minnesota, the main effect will be a fast end to the milder weather. Temperatures are likely to remain in the 30's on Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, but readings will fall rapidly during Thursday's daylight hours. Temperatures will drop into the teens by mid-morning, and the plus single digits by afternoon. Temperatures will approach zero by sunset on Thursday. And, there will be strong winds. However, it won't be as cold as what we had over the weekend. Temperatures could drop to -10 by Friday morning and the wind chills should be in the minus teens to -20's. There could be some blowing snow issues if there is new snowfall Wednesday night or Thursday (most of our snow pack should have a crust due to the early week thaw). That's the most uncertain part of the forecast. Those showers could be either snow or rain if they fall on Wednesday night, when temperatures are likely to be at or above freezing. If they fall on Thursday, they would fall as snow, but it would be a light amount (no more than between a dusting and 2 inches).

Wild Temperature Swings Will Continue Into Early Next Week

After that, the fast-moving weather pattern will continue through the weekend and into next week. That will produce widely varying temperatures from day to day, but the changes will be hard to track. There will be a chance for narrow areas of precipitation with each storm passing, but the location of precipitation areas are too uncertain to pin down.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 12/15/2025: Some sunshine through high clouds with light winds and more seasonable temperatures. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: light during the morning, becoming NW 5-10 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Cloudy with some fog possible, becoming breezy, and seasonably cold. Temperatures between 10 and 15 by midnight, rising into the 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: light evening, SW 5-15 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/16/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, windy, and much milder. High: between 36 and 43. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH during the morning and midday, becoming WNW 10-25 MPH by late afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Tuesday Night: Some early evening clouds and windy, then clearing with winds diminishing during the early morning hours. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts through midnight, then NW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 12/17/2025: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds with a slight chance for a sprinkle, turning windy again and still mild. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: S 5-15 MPH during the morning, S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and windy with a chance for snow or rain showers. A coating of snow is possible by morning. Still mild. Low: near 32. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH evening, NW 10-25 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 40%.

Thursday 12/18/2025: Mostly cloudy, blustery, and turning colder. A chance for occasional light snow or flurries. Icy spots on untreated roads. Low visibility in open areas due to blowing snow. Sunrise temperatures near freezing, but falling temperatures throughout the day, reaching the teens by mid-morning and the plus single digits during the afternoon. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH.Wind chill: between -20 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear, diminishing wind, and colder, but not as extreme as during the past weekend. Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, light winds during the early morning hours. Evening wind chill: between -27 and -15 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 12/19/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cold. A chance for occasional light snow or flurries by late in the day. High: between 12 and 17. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH during the morning, 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Morning wind chill: between -20 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Temperature roller coaster into early next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Sunday, 8 Sunday night, 6 Monday and Monday night, 7 Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night and Thursday.

Yesterday's High: 11°F (set at midnight Sunday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 8°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Monday): 8°F; Top Wind Gust: 33 MPH at 11:52 PM Sunday;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None; Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Monday): -31°F 3 AM Sunday

Next Update: Tuesday, December 16, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Earth Sciences Department home page.