Thursday, December 25, 2025  3:55 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Dense Fog and Thursday Night Icing Minnesota's Main Weather Issues

Best Wishes for a Joyous and Peaceful Season of Good Times and Good Health

Merry Christmas! Happy Kwanzaa (beginning tomorrow)! A belated Happy Chanukah to those of you who celebrated it! For all other, and including everyone else, may the season usher in a year of peace and tranquility.

How Extreme Can Christmas Day Be? It is Minnesota

When I think about recent Minnesota weather on Christmas, I recall the cold wave we had in December 2022, when our highs were in the plus single digits at best and lows were in the minus teens. That was certainly helped by two major snow storms leading up to that week, one on December 14 and 15 (12.2 inches) and the other on December 21-22 (5.0 inches). The strong winds, especially behind the second storm, limited the low temperatures to the minus teens, but produced near blizzard conditions, plus wind chills in the -45 to -25 range. Still, we'd have to go back to December 1983, the coldest December in St. Cloud records, to see record cold lows (set NWS Twin Cities NOAAData to St. Cloud area, and date to 1983-12). Even then, more records were set near Christmas in 1996 (set NWS Twin Cities NOAAData to St. Cloud area, and date to 1996-12) with a low of -25 on December 25 and a record low of -34 on December 26. The actual record cold low for Christmas Day was -42, set during the pioneer days of 1884. 1996 did provide the record cold highs on both December 25 (-12) and 26 (-6).

On the other hand, we've had several recent mild years around Christmas Day. The current record holder is 2023 with 3 record warm highs, including 52 on the 24th, 3 record warm averages, and 3 record warm lows (above freezing all of December 23-25). That warmth also came with a major rain storm that produced nearly two and a half inches of rain in St. Cloud. This period helped December 2023 become both the warmest and wettest December in St. Cloud records.

I seem to be able to recall the milder years more easily than the colder ones. I think first of the number of late afternoons I was walking home from St. Cloud State University in the darkness, due to the early sunset, when I smelled the charcoal from barbeques set up in open garages. Or I'm just annoyed being on my current diet.

December Has Been On the Colder Side, But With Recent Milder Air

This December has been running well on the chilly side (average temperature of 12.3 degrees, 6.7 degrees below average through Tuesday), but the last two weeks have featured ups and downs since we bottomed out at -20 on December 14 (see 14-day St. Cloud temperature graph from MesoWest). Over the past few days, our temperature hasn't dropped below 15 degrees, thanks to milder air since last weekend. We will continue that mild trend through Saturday.

Gloomy, Foggy Side of Mild Ahead

Unfortunately, that mild weather will mainly come on the strength of much warmer than lows rather than highs in the upper 40's. To the east of the major storm plaguing California with heavy rain and snow this week (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), we have quite a few middle clouds moving in the west-to-east flow near the US-Canadian border. Even though temperatures fell back into the teens in St. Cloud last evening with some single digits further to the north (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), low-level moisture has built up from the stalled front in northern Missouri northward (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). That area has turned into a large bank of fog, now extending from eastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota, Iowa, northern Missouri, southern Wisconsin, much of Illinois, and northern Indiana (see all the reports of horizontal parallel lines from southern Minnesota southward on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). In response, the National Weather Service has a huge area of the Northern Plains in a dense fog advisory (dark gray areas on the NWS National Watch-Warning map). The fog may also be squeezing out spotty freezing drizzle in southern Minnesota, since temperatures are hanging around freezing. So far, the MnDOT Minnesota road reports do not show any icing, but this may be possible.

Patchy Light Freezing Rain or Freezing Drizzle Possible Late Today and Tonight

A weak system will break off from the large West Coast storm and move through southern Minnesota by tomorrow. The lift from this system isn't great, but any middle and upper clouds will reinforce the low clouds over us. The best chance for steady precipitation will be near the Minnesota-Canada border (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Cold air is marginal in this system, so the best chance for a light accumulation will be in the Boundary Waters and the Arrowhead (set tab to 00 UTC Sat, 6 PM CST Friday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Unfortunately, areas to the south of that have a good chance of having some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. Central Minnesota is within the small area with a freezing rain chance in the 24 hours ending by 6 PM tonight (set tab to 00 UTC Fri and the precipitation type to freezing rain), but there's better than a 50-50 shot (blue) at some accumulation of freezing rain or drizzle between 6 PM tonight and 6 PM tomorrow night (best shot tonight, set tab to 00 UTC Sat). And, northern Minnesota has a 1 in 3 shot from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon (set tab to 00 UTC Sun). There isn't a tremendous chance of measurable precipitation in the St. Cloud area (1 in 5 shot tonight; 1 in 5 shot Saturday afternoon and Saturday night), but I can't rule out fog becoming dense enough to drop some spotty freezing drizzle.

That's why the National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory out for all of northern Minnesota and central Minnesota along and to the north of I-94. The advisory is in effect for the St. Cloud area from 3 PM this afternoon through 9 AM Friday.

Cloudy and Mild Friday into Saturday

That storm will go by, but a lot of the low-level clouds will hang around through Friday and Saturday. Temperatures have a good shot at climbing above freezing both days. If we get some thinning of the fog from stronger winds on Saturday, we could easily see a high near 40 degrees.

Perhaps Light Ice or Snow to Our North Sat Nt-Sun

The next weather system to go by will also stay along the US-Canadian border. That cold front is now scheduled to come through central Minnesota early Sunday morning. Northern Minnesota will again have a shot at some light snow or mixed precipitation (the middle atmosphere on Saturday night will be milder than it will be tonight) Saturday night with a chance for light accumulating snow on Sunday. In central Minnesota, our best chance at precipitation will be Saturday night with rain the most likely precipitation form as temperatures will probably be above freezing.

Back to the Cold and Wind Sun, Mon

The major change with the Sunday morning cold front is a brief blast of much colder air that will last through Monday. The timing of the cold is now a little later, so temperatures will only dip back below freezing just before Sunday's sunrise. We will have falling temperatures on Sunday with readings dropping through the teens, possibly reaching the plus single digits by sunset. The temperature drop will continue Sunday night with temperatures bottoming out near zero. This cold air will be carried by a strong high pressure system breaking off from the mother lode of cold air over the Yukon (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so we will have lots of wind. Winds will pick up to 10-20 MPH by early morning Sunday, then increase to 20-35 MPH with some gusts over 45 MPH from late morning Sunday through the evening. Even on Monday morning, the wind will still be blowing at 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. These winds, along with the colder temperatures, will bring the wind chills to the edge of serious readings. We could see wind chills in the minus teens by late Sunday, then in the -27 to -10 range Sunday night and Monday morning.

Beyond Monday, Minnesota will remain near the large temperature difference between the southern fringe of the arctic air in Canada and the much milder air being brought down the eastern slopes of the Rockies. That will set us up for a milder Tuesday. The long-range forecasts have another shot of intense cold moving across Ontario and Quebec later in the week, but argue about where Minnesota will be relative to the edge of the cold. So, I have no confidence in a temperature forecast beyond Monday.

Major Rain and Snow Potential in California Up Through Christmas

That California storm will finally begin to move on after today, but the flooding could still be aggravated today. The heaviest snow period is from now through tomorrow in the Sierra Nevada range of California (note the chances of a foot or more persist at both 00 UTC Fri and 00 UTC Sat on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Also, the storm passing northern Minnesota tonight could spread measurable snow to western New York by tomorrow evening (set tab to 00 UTC Sat) and could mess up the major mid-Atlantic airports on Saturday (set tab to 00 UTC Sun).

Ground and Air Travel Links

• Minnesota
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Nebraska
• Iowa
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Air Travel Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday 12/25/2025: Thickening clouds, breezy, and a bit cooler. Perhaps some spotty freezing drizzle late. High: between 27 and 32. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance for rain showers. Dense fog and spotty freezing drizzle are possible by morning. Temperatures holding between 29 and 32. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH evening, light winds late. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Friday 12/26/2025: Some early fog, then becoming breezy by midday, with perhaps some afternoon sun. Continued mild. High: between 33 and 36. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Some evening fog, then mostly cloudy with a bit of a breeze during the early morning hours, and mild. Low: between 28 and 32. Winds: light during the evening, SE 5-10 MPH during the early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Saturday 12/27/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and mild. A slight chance for a rain shower. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for rain or snow showers, then blustery and colder during the early morning hours. Icy spots possible by morning. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH early evening, shifting to NW by late evening and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Sunday 12/28/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, blustery, and much colder. Perhaps a flurry. Temperatures falling through the teens. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partial clear, still windy, and even colder with serious wind chills. Low: near 0. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during evening, NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning hours. Wind chill: between -27 and -10 during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/29/2025: Sunny during the morning, more clouds during the afternoon, still breezy and cold. High: between 3 and 8. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. Wind chill: between -25 and -15 early, between -20 and -10 by late in the day. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Major temperature swings possible through New Year's week with uncertain light precipitation chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 5 Thursday, 4 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night, 4 Saturday, 3 Saturday night, 4 Sunday and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 34°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 15°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Next Update: Friday, December 26, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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