Tuesday, October 23, 2018  2:20 AM

Enjoy the Sunshine While It Lasts First Half of Week

We had one more windy and seasonably mild day yesterday. Temperatures managed to climb into the upper 50's in central Minnesota with lower 60's to our southh. It was yet another windy day with wind gusts as high as 36 MPH yesterday afternoon (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). However, a colder air mass has been moving southeastward under yet another high pressure area from central Canada (see NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). High temperatures under this high were only in the 40's with a few 30's (see high temperature map from NWS/University at Albany), although the coldest temperatures were caused by low clouds that persisted across Manitoba and western Ontario (see Shortwave Albedo from Colorado State slider satellite menu).

We will see at least a mixture of sun and clouds as the high pressure area moves to our south today. It won't be as windy, but temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. We will recover from a low in the upper 20's to highs in the upper 40's. Tonight, the high pressure area will be close enough to Minnesota to allow calm winds and clear skies. Temperatures will again fall off into the 20's. We will see at least partly sunny skies on Wednesday with highs returning to the near average 50's.

Cloudy With Light Rain or Drizzle Late This Week

While you can clearly see the general northwest-to-southeast flow of weather systems continuing from central Canada into the Great Lakes on that Shortwave Albedo from Colorado State slider satellite menu, there is a change in the flow pattern brewing that will make all of the sunshine we've seen lately a lot more scarce during the second half of the week. There has been a strong low pressure system (actually two centers of counterclockwise circulation orbiting each other over Nevada and Utah; see Mid-
Tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider menu) over the Mountain West. This series of storms is moving northward and is forecast to push eastward during the second half of this week. The southwest-to-northeast flow from the Pacific coast of Mexico is going to drag some tropical moisture, including the leftovers from Hurricane Willa and Tropical Storm Vicente, towards New Mexico and the Gulf Coast.

That kind of moisture won't make it here, but this series of systems will bring a lot more clouds and modest amounts of moisture into the air in Minnesota. That will make the second half of the week quite cloudy with periods of occasional rain and some persistent drizzle from late Wednesday night through Friday. The air over us won't be that cool, but the lack of sunshine and the moisture will give us some clammy temperatures hanging mostly in the 40's from Thursday through Friday night.

Once the series of Western US storms moves by, the northern branch of the flow we are in now could also shove some fronts our way during the weekend. At this point, it looks like a cooler air mass could carry instability clouds into Minnesota on Saturday. Eventually, this northwest flow should be drier, but at least the US forecast is bringing in another reinforcing system for Sunday, so clouds may linger into then. The cooler flow means highs near 50 at best.

Confidence Level: "The Bulb on That Hard-To-Reach Light in the Foyer Will Burn Out"

Tuesday 10/23/2018: Partly sunny, not quite as windy, and a bit cooler. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear and still cold. Low: between 24 and 28. Winds: light SE. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 10/24/2018: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and seasonably mild. High: between 50 and 56. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Every Time I Try to Put in a New Bulb, the Light Fixture Will Try to Detach From the Ceiling"

Wednesday Night: Thickening clouds, breezy, and milder. Rain or showers developing late at night. Low: between 38 and 42. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20% evening, 60% in the early morning hours.

Thursday 10/25/2018: Cloudy, breezy and cool with occasional rain or drizzle. High: between 43 and 48. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 80%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy and not quite as cool with occasional light rain or drizzle. Temperatures holding near 45. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Friday 10/26/2018: Cloudy with periods of steady rain. Continued cool. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: S 5-15 MPH, becoming NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Confidence Level: "The Only Way I'll Be Able to Change the Bulb and Hold the Fixture in Place Will Be to Yell At It"

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with occasional drizzle or light rain. A bit colder. Low: between 37 and 42. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday 10/27/2018: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and continued cool. Perhaps a stray sprinkle. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Continued cloudy and cool through the weekend??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump, Objecting to Me Yelling at the Light Bulb"; 0 - "I Will Be Hosting a DIY Show on Home Repairs"): 8 Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night and Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 58°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 30°F
St. Cloud Airport 24 Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, October 24, 2018 8 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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