Weather

St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Monday, November 20, 2017 6:25 A

Bob Weisman
Meteorology Professor
Saint Cloud State University
Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department

Temperature Roller-Coaster to Continue Thanksgiving Week

Sun Returned With Weekend Cold

The up again, down again temperature pattern continued for a big chunk of last week, although the biggest chances were in the low temperatures. There were two lows of freezing or milder last week and Sunday morning's low temperature was 13 degrees. Despite that cold start, the temperature climbed all the way to 40 degrees yesterday afternoon.

Quick Mild Shot Today

Last night, it wasn't quite as cold as over the weekend. The cold is limited to the calm winds in northeastern Minnesota, where readings are in the teens or even single digits (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart). However, the rest of Minnesota has lows in the 20's, in areas that a southeast wind is blowing. And that trend will continue as high and middle clouds are moving from North Dakota into Minnesota (see College of Dupage GOES-16 infrared loop). This will break our streak of brilliant sunshine, but also give us a shot at the milder air that has been pulled down the east slopes of the Rockies. So, temperatures will climb well into the 40's this afternoon. The southwest wind will be strong, but the warmer feel will dampen the effect of the wind.

Another Chilly Period Tuesday into Wednesday

The back-and-forth temperature pattern will still continue this week. The next downward trend will begin late tonight as the next cold front over Alberta (see NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) will get pulled southward through the Northern Plains overnight. Temperatures will fall back into the 20's tonight, but remain in the middle to upper 20's tomorrow. We will also have strong northwest winds behind the cold front, so wind chills will be back in the teens. There may be a shot at a few stray flurries, but that will be about it.

The next cold high will push over Minnesota on Tuesday night, so low temperatures could fall back into the plus single digits.

Maybe A Few Wednesday Night and Thursday Flurries

We'll repeat the warm front-cold front pattern on Wednesday into Thursday, but much more quickly. Highs will recover to near or above freezing on Wednesday with lows staying in the 20's Wednesday night. There might be a coating of light snow with the cold front Wednesday night. Thanksgiving Day will again have temperatures in the 30's with mostly cloudy skies, but at least relatively light winds.

Drizzle and Fog Early on Black Friday?

You may find this week's biggest weather problem traveling to Black Friday sales. The next warming trend will develop Thursday night, but there may be enough low-level moisture to produce some fog or spotty drizzle. Temperatures will stay in the low to middle 30's Thursday night, then climb well up into the 40's on Friday.

More Ups and Downs in the Foreseeable Future

We will remain near the boundary of colder-than-average air and relatively mild air, so there is the potential for more wild temperatures swings. At this point, it doesn't appear that we will see major precipitation. The main threat for that will be in the Pacific Northwest (some of which will be snow today) and along the Southeast US coast.

Links to Travel Information

Since this is such a big travel week, I've included and updated the links to road and air travel conditions below:

Ground and Air Travel

 

Confidence Level: "The Leaves Will Fall in My Yard"

Monday 11/20/2017: Maybe some sun through high and middle clouds, breezy, and milder. High: between 42 and 46. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Monday Night:: Cloudy, breezy, and cold. Maybe a stray snowflake. Low: between 24 and 28. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH in the evening, NW 10-18 MPH after midnight. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday 11/21/2017: Mixed sun and clouds, blustery, and colder. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%


Confidence Level: "The Neighbors' Leaves Will Blow into My Yard"

Tuesday Night:: Partly clear with diminishing wind, and colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: W 8-15 MPH in the evening, 5-10 MPH late.Wind chill in the plus single digits. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%

Wednesday 11/22/2017: Sunshine through increasing high clouds, light winds, and not quite as cold. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%

Wednesday Night:: Cloudy with a chance of some flurries or a little light snow. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: S 5-15 MPH in the evening, NW 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%

Thursday 11/23/2017: Cloudy with perhaps a flurry and continued seasonably cold. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%


Confidence Level: "The Yard Fairy Will Secretly Rake Up All of My Leaves During the Week"

Thursday Night:: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. Some drizzle or fog possible. Temperatures holding in the low to middle 30's. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Friday 11/24/2017: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SW-W 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Extended: Not quite as warm Saturday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Will more of your hair fall out, Bob?"; 0 - "Will the winning PowerBall Numbers be encoded in your lost hair, Bob?"): 8 Monday, 6 Monday night and Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night through Thursday, 3 Thursday night and Friday.

Yesterday's High: 40°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM): 21°F 
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 6 AM Monday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 6 AM Monday): None

November 20 Historical Data High Low
Average Temperatures 36°F 20°F
Record Temperatures 64°F (1962) 43°F (1990)
6°F (1921) -18°F (1921)

Next Update: Tuesday, November 21, 2017 8 AM (or as needed)

Links

Surface

Satellite

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Weather Safety

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.