Friday, June 13, 2025  9:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

OK...Let's Try This Again

Central Minnesota Along the Rain Train This AM....Now Tapering Off

Whatever I said 8 hours ago...forget it! Despite the development of the strong thunderstorms over Nebraska into Kansas (see College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop), the line of expected storms moving from South Dakota into Minnesota did develop along the cool side of the front (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Those showers added substantially to the rain from yesterday afternoon (0.38 inch). Another .70 inch fell between 4 and 9 AM (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) pushing the total so far to 1.08 inch. On the other hand, Paynesville had picked a total of 2.88 inches.

We will now get the forecast break in the steady rain, but will remain cloudy with occasional sprinkles or showers. There is a chance of more showers and thunderstorms developing along the front later this afternoon, but it looks like the best chance of redeveloping showers during the afternoon hours will be to our east. So, I am looking for a period of spotty showers and drizzle the rest of the day, starting now. High temperatures will again remain in the 60's with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity.

And, the persistently high levels of air pollution have eased down from orange (unhealthy for sensitive groups) in southern Minnesota this morning.

Scattered Storm Chances Continue Through Monday (Better Chance At Night)

There aren't any strong low pressure systems due to move near the stalled front to our south through Sunday night. However, the front is expected to stall either in northern Iowa or southern Minnesota. There is still expected to be weak flow from the warmer and more humid air over the southern edge of the more seasonable and humid air over us. That will continue at least some threat of showers and thunderstorms over central Minnesota from tonight through Sunday night. I have a better chance for rain each night with less of a chance each weekend day. The forecasts are trying to push the front further to the north as the weekend goes on, but the overnight thunderstorms will produce cooler air produced by falling rain evaporating into the dry air aloft, so that factor will make it harder for the front to make much warmer progress. So, the weekend forecast is really uncertain, both concerning the chances of showers and thunderstorms and how warm we will get each day. I don't have any all day or all night washouts (I have the highest rain chances today with that threat of light rain showers, then a 50-50 shot at Friday night showers), but we will have a lot of clouds around. I am knocking my highs back into the 70's, which would be warmer than today or tomorrow, through Sunday. I have a better chance of central Minnesota breaking out into the warmer air to the south of the front on Monday, so I have highs in the 80's. And, humidity is likely to be uncomfortable through the period.

Likely a Break from Wildfire Smoke Through Early Next Week

The good news is that the air pollution issues should ease, even over southern Minnesota after today. Our winds will be coming from the east, so the air circulating from Quebec into Michigan and Wisconsin will move into Minnesota. Those areas have better quality than the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces (see EPA fire and smoke map), so I don't see any air quality alerts this weekend.

Change in the Pattern Delayed Until At Least Tuesday Night and Wednesday

There is supposed to be a Pacific storm that will have a better chance of finally pushing this front out of Minnesota. As time goes on, the computer forecasts get more uncertain about when that low can push through Minnesota and how strong it will be. The new forecast runs have delayed that chance to Tuesday night and Wednesday. When that happens, there will be a chance for heavier rainfall.

Until that happens, the humidity and chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Monday and Tuesday. For now, I have the warmer air winning in central Minnesota on Monday, since there isn't forecast to be a good push of warmer air over the cooler air, but that could easily get messed up. It will stay uncomfortably humid with shower and thunderstorm chances close to us even if they miss.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 6/13/2025: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and still cool. Steady rain tapering to drizzle or light rain by mid-morning. A few steadier showers possible during the afternoon. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: E 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for rain showers. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday 6/14/2025: Mostly cloudy with perhaps some sunny breaks. A bit warmer. A chance for a scattered afternoon shower. Still fairly humid. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Continued with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 53 and 58. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday 6/15/2025: Morning lingering showers and thunderstorms, then some midday and afternoon sun. Warmer and uncomfortably humid. A slight chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% during the morning, 20% during the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, warm, and humid. A chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 67. Winds: E-SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Monday 6/16/2025: Mixed sun and clouds, warm, and uncomfortably humid. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Monday Night: A chance for evening showers or thunderstorms, then not quite as warm. Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Tuesday 6/17/2025: Mixed clouds and a few sunny breaks, fairly humid, but not quite as warm. A better chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Extended: More showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night with lingering showers Wednesday??? Uncertain chance for showers the rest of the work week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Friday, 5 Friday night through Saturday night, 4 Sunday and Sunday night, 2 Monday through Tuesday. .

Yesterday's High: 68°F; Overnight Low (through 9 AM Friday): 52°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 9 AM Friday): 1.08 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Friday): 0.53 inch

Next Update: Monday, June 16, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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