Friday,  August 1, 2025  2:40 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Great Weather, If You Don't Have to Breathe

Air Quality Alert Continues Until At Least Saturday Afternoon

The seasonably cool (highs in the 70's: see 18-21Z, 3-6 PM on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) with comfortable 50's dew points (see green on UCAR hourly dew point chart) moved into most of Minnesota (see 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) as the Canadian high pressure area parked along the Minnesota-Canadian border. Unfortunately, that air continues to carry plenty of wildfire smoke (see hazy area during daylight hours of the College of DuPage 'true-color' visible satellite loop). Most air quality indices in Minnesota were in the red category (unhealthy for all) much of the day (set pollutant to 2.5PM and station to St. Cloud on the MPCA hourly time series). The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency's air quality alert continues all through today into tomorrow afternoon in all of Minnesota.

The actual number of fires is a little bit below average for Canada, although the area is large and concentrated in western Canada from the Yukon into Ontario (see North America wildfire map from the FIRES US-Canadian site). The Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Ontario fires have been growing (they have missed the rain from further to the south) and that air has been caught up in the clockwise-circulating air around the northern Minnesota high.

Our winds are forecast to turn around from the northeast of the past couple of days to light southeast today. Those winds won't be strong enough to bring in air from outside Minnesota today and tonight; however more persistent southeast winds are expected to develop tomorrow and keep blowing through the weekend. Unfortunately, that air will still be caught up in the high pressure circulation, so southeast winds will likely bring in air from Michigan, rather than the Gulf Coast. Note from the EPA fire and smoke map that the air in eastern Michigan is still showing orange (unhealthy for sensitive people) air AQI. Even though the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency forecast maps show improvement by Sunday, at least marginal air quality could hold on into Saturday night or even Sunday (their forecaster discussion notes this possibility).

That increased southeast flow will eventually air with dew points back in the uncomfortable 60's from the area closer to the front in the Ohio Valley (see 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), but it will take a while. We should see dew points creep back into the noticeable upper 50's by tomorrow or Sunday and possibly see those 60's Monday, if not on Sunday. There will be a series of weak low pressure systems moving in the northwest-to-southeast flow dominating the northern portion of the College of DuPage North America mid-tropospheric water vapor loop. Eventually, some moisture moving southwest-to-northeast within the eastern Rockies will help out and allow these systems to produce significant rainfall somewhere in the Plains. That could be close to Minnesota by the second half of next work week. Until then, I have a small chance of showers and thunderstorms back in the forecast beginning perhaps Sunday with a 1 in 3 chance for Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be able to approach or top 80 more frequently.

The numbers for July 2025 are  final. Along with the wet period (7th wettest June-July in St. Cloud records), St. Cloud was warmer than average, mainly because of the warm low temperatures. That means 26 of the past 27 months have had above average temperatures in St. Cloud. I'll assessment that, including how warm the last 12 months were to the previous 12 months, and what kind of conclusions can be applied to the global warming issue in the July 2025 St. Cloud weather summary now on-line.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Air Quality Alert Through 5 PM Saturday

Friday 8/1/2025: Poor air quality. Morning hazy sun, afternoon puffy clouds, and a slight chance for a sprinkle. Continued comfortable humidity. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and continued relatively dry. Smoke continues. Low: between 53 and 58. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday 8/2/2025: Sunshine through haze plus some afternoon high clouds, breezier, and becoming noticeably humid. A slight chance of a late day sprinkle. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, a bit of a breeze, and not quite as cool. Noticeably humid. Still smoke issues? Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday 8/3/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezier, and noticeably to uncomfortably humid. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Still smoke issues? High: between 77 and 82. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, milder, notable humidity and a slight chance for a rain shower. Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 8/4/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, continued seasonably warm, with a return to uncomfortable humidity. More of a chance for late day scattered showers or thunderstorms. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. Perhaps a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Tuesday 8/5/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with uncomfortable humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Extended: A better chance for warm and humid weather during the second half of next week?? At least chances for more widespread thunderstorms the second half of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday through Friday night, 7 Saturday, 6 Saturday night, 5 Sunday, 3 Monday and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 79°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 60°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, August 4, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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