Friday, June 6, 2025  2:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

First Wave of Scattered Rain Chances Through Early Next Week

Rain moved back into parts of Minnesota overnight. This is the first rain chance of several we will see between now and next Tuesday. However, the rain will be mostly occasional, and the overall shower intensity won't be great (see Days 1-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), so I don't see any complete washout day. However, today and Sunday are likely to have more clouds than sunny periods with no better than a mixture of clouds and some sun the rest of the days.

Approaching Storm Will Continue Some Light Rain This AM, Few Scattered Showers PM

The next storm system pushed through Montana and Wyoming (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), driving an area of clouds into Minnesota yesterday (see College of DuPage shortwave infrared satellite loop), and producing light rain and showers from the Dakotas into Minnesota overnight (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). This system doesn't have a great deal of moisture available, so the rain has been fairly light, but enough to produce a wetting (0.11 inch at St. Cloud Regional Airport through 2 AM; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

The system will push eastward this afternoon, but the clouds and spotty rain area will persist through the morning hours. And, there is enough middle-level moisture to keep a lot of clouds around today with still a chance of a scattered light afternoon shower. Rainfall amounts won't be that impressive, but the persistent clouds will limit today's high to the lower 70's.

Northwest Winds Triggering Air Quality Alert in Northern Minnesota Through Today

This system has managed to push the slow-moving front in Manitoba and northern Minnesota (see 4 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) further into Minnesota this morning. North to northwest winds are blowing across northern Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). That means northern Minnesota will see air flow from southern Manitoba and far western Ontario for a while today. Air pollution levels are in the red (unhealthy for all) category in the Winnipeg area with a few purple levels in southeastern Manitoba (see EPA fire and smoke map). So, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency issued another air quality alert for northern Minnesota, which is in effect until 7 PM this evening. The winds are expected to shift to the southwest later, so the smoke particles will drift out of northern Minnesota beginning this afternoon. Until then, you may need a Plan B for sensitive people (kids, seniors, people with heart or lung issues) and even reduce prolonged activity for everyone (see EPA safety steps for AQI categories).

Stronger System Due Saturday Night

A stronger storm system will move from the northern British Columbia and Alberta (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) into Manitoba by Sunday morning. This system will yank the part of the cold front seen in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) into Minnesota on Saturday night. That will allow a chance of showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm when the cold front comes through on Saturday night. There might be a shower as early as Saturday afternoon, but that's not certain at this point. So, we will have a dry period tonight into at least tomorrow early afternoon. That will come with some partial clearing tonight, but the light winds will allow patchy dense fog to develop. We may begin tomorrow sunny, but there will be quite a few afternoon clouds. Highs will climb back into the middle 70's ahead of the front.

Instability Showers Linger Both Sunday and Monday, Mainly PM

The cold front will come through Saturday night, but the upper-level storm will then intensify and slow down, spending most of Sunday and Monday drifting across the northern half of Minnesota. The cold air pocket aloft will create the needed 80-degree temperature difference between the ground and the middle atmosphere both Sunday and Monday, so there will be lots of puffy cumulus clouds and some scattered showers (perhaps even a thunderstorm) with more of them on Sunday than on Monday. Since the upper air low will be close by on Sunday night, there may even be a couple of light rain showers with the best chance across northern Minnesota.

Much Cooler Sunday and Especially Monday

The cooler air behind the cold front will keep Sunday's high in the lower half of the 70's and Monday's high only in the 60's. We will have strong northwest winds developing right behind the front from late Saturday night through all of Sunday.

...With More Canadian Wildfire Smoke Possible

Since our air flow will be from the northwest throughout Minnesota, the air will be passing over the Canadian Prairie wildfires. Yesterday, the smoke plume extended from central Saskatchewan into southern Manitoba (see the haziness during the daylight hours on the GeoColor satellite loop). Poor air quality from ground smoke is limited now to parts of east central Alberta and central Saskatchewan (see EPA fire and smoke map), but the air behind the cold front will be sinking, so there is a chance of another dense smoke plume near the ground moving into Minnesota Saturday night and continuing Sunday into early next week. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency notes the uncertainty for air quality, but also the need to keep monitoring conditions.

Warming Back to Summerlike Second Half of Next Week

After the upper air low goes by, high pressure will take over for a good chunk of next week. That should allow temperatures to become summer-like again with highs back to at least the 70's on Tuesday and 80's possible during the second half of the work week. The flow will also bring in more moisture, spreading at least some chance for showers and thunderstorms into at least northern Minnesota by the end of the work week. Shower and thunderstorm chances could affect Minnesota some time between the end of next week and the following weekend, but it's much too early to pin anything down right now.

May and Spring 2025 Weather Summary Available (Correction)

Thanks to Corey Daubanton, I've corrected the St. Cloud May and Spring 2025 weather summary. The month was warmer than average with slightly higher than average rainfall. The month did have 4 record warm temperatures tied or broken, but did manage to set a record cool low on May 17, the first record cold temperatures during the past 2 years. Still, there hasn't been a record cold high during the winter since 2021. The last winter record cold low was set in 2014. The summary also notes the huge difference between the number of record warm temperatures and record cold temperatures during the 2020's.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 6/6/2025: Cloudy with a good chance of light rain during the morning. Mostly cloudy during the afternoon with a chance for an scattered shower. Cooler. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: E-SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70% during the morning, 30% during the afternoon.

Friday Night: Cloudy with perhaps a lingering sprinkle, light winds, with a chance for fog. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday 6/7/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance for scattered midday or afternoon showers, breezy, and seasonably warm. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, then partial clearing late. Breezy. Smoke is possible during the early morning hours. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: S 8-15 MPH, becoming NW 10-20 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday 6/8/2025: A sunny start, then a lot of puffy clouds midday and afternoon with occasional showers or perhaps a thunderstorm, windy, and a bit cooler. Perhaps some smoke. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: W 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Sunday Night: Cloudy and cooler with a chance of a shower. Smoke is possible. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: W-NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Monday 6/9/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with scattered showers, but not quite as many as on Sunday. Lighter winds and even cooler. Perhaps some smoke. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Monday Night: Finally some clearing, light winds, and a chance for fog. Smoke is possible. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 6/10/2025: Sunny during the morning, puffy afternoon clouds with a slight chance for a sprinkle. Warmer. Perhaps some smoke. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Warming up by mid-week next week??? Some parts of Minnesota could see showers and thunderstorms late next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Friday and Friday night, 5 Saturday, 6 Saturday night, 4 Sunday through Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 79°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 60°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): 0.11 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): TBA

Next Update: Monday, June 9, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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