Weather

St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Monday, May 27, 2019  4:25 AM

Bob Weisman
Meteorology Professor
Saint Cloud State University
Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department

Gloomiest Day of the Rest of May Ahead

Hold On to Yesterday's Memory Through Mid-Week

For the first time in 10 days and only the sixth time this month, St. Cloud's high temperature topped 70 degrees (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). However, the memory of that warmth will have to carry us for at least a few days, although the weather for the first half of the new week doesn't look to be quite as bad as had been expected.

Midday Wetness and Cooler, But Not an All-Day Washout

Today will still be the gloomiest day. The next storm has pushed into northeastern Colorado (see US Mid-Tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) and has been responsible for a number of severe weather reports including large hail and tornadoes from Colorado into New Mexico and eastward into the High Plains. This is the second straight day with a lot of severe weather, both in the Plains and in the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms have crept northeastward overnight (see Shortwave Albedo satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider menu) and have pushed into southeastern South Dakota, northern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota during the early morning hours (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). The threat for heavy rain continues to be across southern Minnesota into northern Iowa today. There is a flood watch for south central Minnesota, including Mankato, Fairmont, Redwood Falls, Albert Lea, and the southern Twin Cities suburbs. However, the threat for severe thunderstorms appears to stay to our south. Central Minnesota will be on the northern fringe of today's rainfall with our best chance of showers and thunderstorms being during the morning and midday hours. The persistent clouds and northeast winds will likely keep our temperatures from the upper 50's to the lower 60's.

Bulk of the Rain Stays to the South Tuesday and Wednesday

The front marking the boundary between the really warm and humid air at the ground and the cooler air is now in central Iowa, where the winds shift from east to south (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) is expected to stay in Iowa for the next two days as the back storm system in Nevada and California (see Shortwave Albedo satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider menu) works its way into the Plains. However, it appears that the best chance for rainfall will stay to the south, perhaps only brushing central and southern Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, we will only have a few small chances for rain during this periods. There will be a lot of clouds around, but I only have a small chance for rain showers. Brighter than expected skies should allow temperatures to climb well into the 60's and possibly make it to 70 tomorrow and Wednesday.

70's Return Thursday...80 Friday?

We will likely have to wait until Thursday to get a day with as much sunshine and as much warmth as yesterday. Highs will make it well into the 70's on Thursday and could approach 80 degrees on Friday. There will be enough lingering moisture at the ground to spread the chance for a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but most of these days will be dry. St. Cloud's average date of its first 80 degree high is more than 3 weeks ago (May 4), but there have been years when it waits until the last week of May, including 4 years ago. The record for a late 80-degree high was June 21, set in 1945.

On the long-range front, a cold front is expected to push into Minnesota from the north on Saturday, so there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, depending on what time of day the front comes through. However, it appears that the upcoming week will be considerably drier than the past couple of weeks, except for today.

May Not Likely to Make 10 Wettest Mays, Might Not Stay in 10 Coolest Mays

The St. Cloud May rainfall total remains at 5.77 inches with the potential to go up today. However, with St. Cloud expected to be on the northern fringe of the rain, we are not guaranteed to climb into the 10 rainiest Mays. The same goes for the spring (March 1 through the end of May). St. Cloud currently has 10.76 inches and it would take another 0.80 inches to make it into the 10 wettest springs. That's on top of the 47.7 inches of snow in February through May (0.4 inch in May), the 3rd highest late season snowfall in St. Cloud records. The May snowfall (0.4 inch) ranks 7th on record.

Yesterday's temperatures were still a bit below average for the end of May, especially with the 40-degree low to begin the day. That's 10 straight days that have been cooler than average. Only May 14-16 have been warmer than average. The St. Cloud average May temperature has crept up to 50.0 degrees, 5.7 degrees colder than average, cold enough for 5th place among the 10 coolest Mays. Today will likely be the biggest downward push of the rest of the month. However, an increase of only 1.2 degrees by Friday would this May out of the top 10. With mild low temperatures and a drier Tuesday and Wednesday, we may not be able to hang onto that level of cold.

Confidence Level: "The Bulb on That Hard-To-Reach Light in the Foyer Will Burn Out"

Monday 5/27/2019: A chance of morning and midday showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy with perhaps a few afternoon sunny breaks. Breezy, and cooler, but noticeably humid. High: between 55 and 62. Winds: NE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 5/28/2019: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy, and not quite as cool. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of an evening rain shower. Otherwise, cloudy, light winds, and fairly humid. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday 5/29/2019: Mixed clouds and sun with a slight chance of a shower. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear, still mild, and moist. Maybe some fog by morning. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 5/30/2019: More sunshine, fewer clouds, warmer and still humid. A slight chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 72 and 78. Winds: N 5-15 MPH, becoming NW in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "Every Time I Try to Put in a New Bulb, the Light Fixture Will Try to Detach From the Ceiling"

Thursday Night: Perhaps an evening shower or thunderstorm, then partial clearing late. Continued mild. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH, becoming NE 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Only Way I'll Be Able to Change the Bulb and Hold the Fixture in Place Will Be to Yell At It

Friday 5/31/2019: Sunny, breezy, warm, and continued humid. A chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: N 5-15 MPH, becoming NW in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Extended: Warm and sticky Saturday with a better chance of late day showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump, Objecting to Me Yelling at the Light Bulb"; 0 - "I Will Be Hosting a DIY Show on Home Repairs"): 6 Monday through Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 3 Friday, 2 Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 74°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM Monday): 49°F
St. Cloud Airport Total Storm Precipitation (ending 4 AM Monday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None

St. Cloud Daily Average and Record Temperatures
May 27 Historical Data High Low
Average Temperatures 72°F 48°F
Record Temperatures 97°F (1969) 66°F (1934)
45°F (1965) 28°F (1907)

Next Update: Tuesday, May 28, 2019 8 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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