Thursday, June 22, 2017 8:00 AM

(forecast below this discussion)

Natural Air Conditioning Gets Turned Up This Weekend

Morning Rush Hour Showers to Move Out and Stay South of St. Cloud This Afternoon

A weak storm system moved into the western Dakotas overnight. This system has pumped some warmer and more humid air over the seasonably cool air at the ground. There isn't a lot of lift from this system, but it managed to create scattered showers and thunderstorms in northeastern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota yesterday afternoon (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) that moved across central Minnesota during the early evening. There was a brief tornado touchdown near Foxhome in Wilkin County around 6:30 PM last evening with some golf ball hail in Dalton and wind gusts of up to 74 MPH in Fergus Falls. There's another line of showers and thunderstorms pushing across central Minnesota early this morning (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). This system has produced wind gusts of 60 MPH in eastern South Dakota. The line will continue to push eastward (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop) but it will also drift southward by the time of the morning rush hour.

In the immediate St. Cloud area, we will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms between now and 7 AM with a longer period of storms in the Twin Cities.

The weak system will continue to drift southeastward today. So, there will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms developing in the southern third of Minnesota this afternoon. The slow moving showers means that there could be some heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Minnesota since there could be several rounds of storms. Some storms may also contain large hail or straight-line wind damage.

Nearly all of the afternoon storms will stay to the south of St. Cloud, so I only have a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower. So, the net result is that most of the day from mid-morning on should be dry. Temperatures will be in the middle 70's.

April Temperatures and Afternoon Shower Chances, Especially Saturday

Cooler air will move in tomorrow, but on both Friday and Saturday, the cooler air will be accompanied by an upper-level low. The large temperature difference between the ground and aloft will produce the chance for mainly afternoon showers. The best chance of these occasional showers will be on Saturday, but we could see one or two on Friday. It won't be a completely washout Saturday, since the showers will come and go, but have rain gear on hand for any outdoor activities. Highs will be much cooler, in the middle 60's tomorrow and only in the lower half of the 60's on Saturday with gusts northwest winds, especially during the showers. Early morning temperatures could dip into the 40's.

After Saturday, we'll gain some degrees each day and decrease the chance of showers. There will be more sunshine on Sunday, but there still will be afternoon clouds and perhaps a shower. Highs will be near 70. Monday will be more seasonable with highs back in the middle 70's, but still a few isolated afternoon showers.

80's to Stay Away Until Middle of Next Week

We did make it past 80 degrees yesterday (see 3-day loop of high temperatures from NWS/University of Albany). When will those readings return? Perhaps by next Tuesday. You can also see the triple digit highs as close to us as north central Nebraska with 110's in the northern California Central Valley.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Eat Papers and the Rug While I'm Forecasting"

Thursday 6/22/2017: Morning showers and thunderstorms ending by noon, then partial clearing, breezy, warm and drier. A slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: N 5-15 MPH, becoming SW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% through midday, 20% the rest of the day.

Thursday Night: A chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm, then clearing, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday 6/23/2017: Morning sun, afternoon clouds, windy, and cooler. A slight chance of an afternoon shower. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Friday Night: Clear and chilly evening, clouds late at night with a chance of a shower. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday 6/24/2017: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and continued cool with occasional showers. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Nudge Me in the Leg for More Petting and Less Forecasting"

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy and cool again. Maybe a few showers late. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 6/25/2017: Morning sun, afternoon clouds, breezy, and not quite as cool. A slight chance of an afternoon shower. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Have Great Insight on That Storm Due 4 Days from Now"

Sunday Night: Clearing and continued cool. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 6/26/2017: Morning sun, afternoon clouds, breezy, and seasonably warm. A slight chance of an afternoon shower. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Extended: Sunny and more summerlike on Tuesday with highs in the 80's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 6 Thursday through Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Sunday night and Monday, 2 Tuesday

Yesterday's High: 82°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 50°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 4 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 4 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Friday, June 23, 2017 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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