Friday, September 30, 2022 3:05 AMBob WeismanMeteorology ProfessorSaint Cloud State UniversityAtmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department
Weather News Dominated by Hurricane Ian, Other Recent Storms
Of course, much of our attention, prayers, and charity are aimed at Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian with some hopefully leftover for eastern Asia. The devastating storm surge and high winds clobbered southwestern Florida, while still hurricane force winds and up to 20 inches of rain has produced major inland central Florida flooding. And, the storm has regained hurricane strength off the Georgia coast. For now, most of the heavy rain is just offshore Georgia and South Carolina (see College of DuPage longwave satellite loop), because more of the large circulation (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop) is now pulling in air from over land. Aanother less severe landfall is expected in South Carolina today. There will be a localized area of storm surge with some coastal flooding (not as widespread as Wednesday), and also widespread heavy rainfall, causing more potential flooding in the Carolinas and Virginia. And, the clean-up from Supertyphoon Noru in the Philippines and Vietnam continues. And, the earlier storms hitting Japan and Puerto Rico will require a long-term massive clean-up effort.
Not as Much Frost Yesterday AM in Central MN, But Second Hard Freeze in Northeast (and Recovery Back to Near 70)
Our weather continues to be relatively uneventful. Yesterday produced a second hard freeze in northeastern Minnesota with Embarrass and Celina getting down to 22 degrees. Forest Lake, Long Prairie, Mora, and Rice made it to 29 degrees again yesterday morning, but a decent southeast wind and some middle and high clouds kept the frost more scattered than on Wednesday morning. Those patches of high and middle clouds (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage longwave satellite loop) actually produced some showers coming out of those clouds (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US loop). Those clouds are being produced by much warmer air (highs in the 80's and a few 90's in the High Plains from South Dakota to Texas; see 4 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) moving over the top of the departing cool air mass. However, there is little moisture near the ground (dew points still only in the 30's to near 40; see UCAR hourly dew point chart), so much of the rain has either evaporated before making it to the ground or only produced sprinkles. So, a good supply of sunshine and a stiff southeast wind ended up pushing temperatures yesterday into the lower 70's in much of central and southern Minnesota (see 4 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Overnight, the winds have kept up (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and there is another patch of middle clouds (see College of DuPage longwave satellite loop) with a few middle-cloud showers (see College of DuPage north central US loop). Again, most of these showers are not reaching the ground with only a few sprinkles.
Warm, Breezy With A Small Chance of Showers Through Monday
From today through Monday, we will continue to have southwest-to-northeast flow as the Idaho-Montana low (see mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) can only drift eastward since the combination of Hurricane Ian and an older upper-level trough will wobble over Virginia and West Virginia after today's landfall. This means we will keep the persistent south to southeast winds and a mixture of clouds and clear sky. With relatively small amounts of moisture present, I only have a 1 in 5 chance for a shower or thunderstorm today through tomorrow. This also means more sun than clouds, so highs today and tomorrow will climb into the 70's. The partial cloud cover and the southeast wind persisting overnight means that we are done with the sub-freezing lows for a while. Temperatures will bottom out in the 50's or perhaps upper 40's.
As time goes on, more moisture will get into the system. I have put the chance for showers at 1 in 3 tomorrow night through Monday, but there will still be plenty of dry periods. With more clouds around, I have highs around 70.
Better Chance for Monday Night, Tuesday Showers
Right now, it appears that the northern Rockies low will get close enough to Minnesota to pull its cold front into the state by Tuesday. So, I have increased the shower chances to 40% Monday night and 50-50 on Tuesday. Still, there won't be huge amounts of moisture so a lot of rain probably won't occur.
Turning Much Cooler Wednesday into Late Next Week
It looks like cooler air will move in during the second half of next week as the flow over Canada shifts to a northwest-to-southeast direction. The long-range forecasts show the next shot of cool air to be colder than the one we had earlier in the week.
Confidence Level: "I Will Have to Remove Five-Foot High Snow Piles to Put Out the Trash"
Friday 9/30/2022: Partly sunny, breezy, and back to Labor Day temperatures.
Confidence Level: "The Continuing Snow Melt Will Make It Icy Right Where I Have to Change My Balance and Throw the Snow"
Friday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and even milder. A slight chance of a shower. Low: between 52 and 57. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH evening, 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Saturday 10/1/2022: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and continued warm.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and mild. A better chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: E-SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Sunday 10/2/2022: Maybe a morning shower, then partly sunny, breezy, and continued warm.
Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and warm once again. A chance of a shower. Low: between 52 and 57. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Monday 10/3/2022: Mixed clouds and sun, windy, and warm. A chance of a shower.
Confidence Level: "The Melting Maven Will Magically Make My Sidewalk Ice Disappear Overnight"
Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and even warmer. A better chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm? Low: between 53 and 58. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.
Tuesday 10/4/2022: Showers and thunderstorms possible both in the morning and middle to late afternoon. Some sun in between? Still windy.
Extended: Turning much cooler during second half of week??? Some Thursday or Friday sprinkles (or even snow flurries????)
Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Friday, 5 Friday night through Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.
Yesterday's High: 69°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Friday): 54°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None
|September 30 Historical Data||High||Low|
|Record Temperatures||86°F (1976)||60°F (2021)|
|41°F (1985)||24°F (1899)|
Next Update: Monday, October 3, 2022 7 AM
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
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