Monday, September 26, 2016 3:18 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Slow Improvement Through Mid-Week

Pesky Low to Hang Around One More Day

The low pumping all of the moisture over Minnesota has finally arrived in Minnesota overnight (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). Over the past week, this system has dropped between 2 and 5 inches of rain in much of central Minnesota (1.47 inches at the St. Cloud Airport; NWS will update this map later this morning) with much more in the northwestern Twin Cities and in south central and southeastern Minnesota. The rain has slowed down, but the persistent clouds have remained over Minnesota (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) with rain showers lingering across northeastern Minnesota. The flood warnings have continued in south central and southeastern Minnesota.

The upper low is getting stronger as it moves through Minnesota, but the good news is that it will drift southeastward during the next two days. That will be far enough away for us to see some improving weather during this work week. I think today will be the last day of completely cloudy weather. The air will be slightly more stable, so I only think there will be some spotty showers or sprinkles this afternoon, instead of the persistent rain. Late tonight, the storm will have moved far enough away to allow us to see some clearing. Tomorrow, we could actually see some morning sunshine before skies cloud up completely in the afternoon. By Wednesday, we could finally have a good supply of sunshine.

Highs will be in the 60's today and only around 60 tomorrow. All of the clouds will keep the lows in the 40's. There will also be a strong wind, so the combination of clouds and wind will make it feel much cooler than we are used to.

Sunshine by Mid-Week and Lingering For a While

This low is actually forecast to stall out across the Southern Appalachians for the bulk of the week. The strong low will block the advance of any other weather systems. This will be good news for Minnesota since the low is expected to move far enough away to allow us to stay in the sunshine, starting on Wednesday and continuing through the (don't jinx it) weekend. As sunshine returns, highs will likely return to the seasonably middle to upper 60's for the end of the week and could be in the 70's over the weekend.

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Monday 9/26: Mostly cloudy, windy, and cooler. A chance of some spotty sprinkles or showers. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: WNW 15-30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Clearing, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 9/27: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon, breezy, and continued cool. High: between 58 and 64. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and continued cool. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 9/28: A cloudy start, then becoming sunny, light winds, and more seasonable. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Wednesday Night: Clearing, light winds, and cooler. Patchy fog possible by morning. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 9/29: Sunny, light winds, and seasonably warm. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clear and not quite as cool. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Friday 9/30: Sunny, breezy, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: An actual sunny weekend??? Highs in the 70's???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday through Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 3 Friday.

Yesterday's High: 67°F (set at 5 AM Sunday); Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 51°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): 0.03 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): TBA

Total Rainfall Since

Normal Temperatures for September 26 - High: 66°F; Low: 43°F
Next Update: Tuesday, September 27 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS WPC surface map menu
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS WPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS WPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS WPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State RAMDIS Menu
• Colorado State Western IR Loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western Water Vapor Loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Summer Weather Safety from the National Weather Service
• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis

Ground and Air Travel

• Minnesota (high bandwidth)
• Minnesota (faster loading)
• Iowa
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Tuesdys)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.