Wednesday, November 29, 2023 2:30 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus
Arctic Shot Ended Yesterday Morning
The temperature bottoming out lasted from Sunday afternoon to about mid-morning yesterday (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). We had our high of only 19 degrees on Monday and a Tuesday morning low of 3 (see NWS: 72-hours of St. Cloud observations). By late morning, however, temperatures had rocketed up into the 20's and reached a near average high of 33 yesterday afternoon. Overnight, the much milder air and a persistent west wind has kept temperatures in the 20's. Even though there are few clouds (see GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider) and the winds have lightened up, note that dew points (lower left number around station circle on the WS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) are in the lower 20's, so this morning's low is likely to be milder than Monday's high.
Warmer Air Well to West and Well to NW
The northwest-to-southeast steering winds are continuing (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), but the cold that was in Alaska and the Yukon has been cleaned out (see 3 PM Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Note that yesterday's high temperatures were in the 40's in most of Alberta and even in the 30's in far northwestern Alberta. That's because this air has descended the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies over the weekend.
Mildest Day (40's) Likely Today
Since the warm front pushed through Minnesota overnight, today will be the warmest day of the past few and likely through this weekend. We will eventually see some high clouds move in from the west (see GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider), but temperatures will climb from the lower 20's likely into the 40's in most of central and southern Minnesota.
Seasonable Cold (30's) Thursday into Next Week
A weak cold front will push through tonight, but our air will be coming from northern Alberta or southern Nunavut, so high temperatures will likely remain in the 30's from tomorrow into early next week. There is a small chance of a few stray snowflakes late tonight and tomorrow with more persistent clouds through at least tomorrow night. Even on a mainly clear night, I see lows in the 20's or the teens into the weekend.
Uncertain Chance for (Light) Snow? Saturday Night?? Sunday???
The main storm action will take the storm along the California coast (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) into the Gulf Coast by tomorrow and to the southeast from Friday into the weekend (see Days 2-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). With another strong storm hitting the Pacific Coast late week, the only chance of precipitation for Minnesota may be when much warmer air tries to push the seasonably cold air out of the way. The long-range forecasts have been inconsistent about a possible snow threat for Sunday or Monday. There is more agreement about the chance for a little light snow Saturday night into Sunday, but the forecasts are debating whether there will be enough moisture to produce anything more than a few flurries or a very light snow. So, I've bumped the chances for snow to 1 in 3 for Saturday night.
Decent Chance of Milder Than Average Temperatures Next Week
There is a possibility that the warm air from off the Rockies will push towards Minnesota next week, but the computer forecasts are inconsistent about whether the warm air makes it to the ground in Minnesota. So, I'll lean towards average to above average temperatures into the middle of next week.
7th Driest November Likely; Mild, but Not Top 10 Mildest November
With the only snow threat in forecast for the weekend, St. Cloud will hold at 0.08 inch for November, tied with 1904 for the 7th driest November in St. Cloud records. Our 0.1 inch snowfall from Sunday morning means that this November won't tie the 13 Novembers with no measurable snowfall, the most recent one being in 2009. There have been 16 Novembers with no more than 0.1 inch of snow.
Through Monday's statistics, the St. Cloud November average temperature fell another degree to 36.2 degrees (from NOWData, set to St. Cloud area, daily data for a month, and the period to 2023-11), dropping out of the 10 warmest Novembers. That's still 4.5 degrees above average. We will likely end up around 3 degrees warmer than average.
Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast
Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"
Wednesday 11/29/2023: Sunshine through some afternoon high clouds, light winds, and milder. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Wednesday Night: Partly clear, turning breezy late, and cool. A slight chance of a late night flurry. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: SW 5 MPH evening, becoming NW 5-10 MPH in the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.
Thursday 11/30/2023: More clouds with a few sunny periods, perhaps a stray snowflake, breezy, and seasonably colder. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.
Thursday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and cool. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Friday 12/1/2023: Cloudy, light winds, and continued seasonably cold. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy and still milder than average. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Saturday 12/2/2023: Cloudy, breezy, and continued seasonably cold. A chance of a late day snow flurry. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.
Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"
Saturday Night: Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries. Low: between 30 and 34. Winds: SE 5 MPH, becoming SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.
Sunday 12/3/2023: Light snow or flurries ending in the morning, but still cloudy and mild the rest of the day. High: between 32 and 36. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.
Extended: Milder into the middle of next week??? Some chance of precipitation Monday.....maybe???
Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday through Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night, 4 Saturday, 2 Saturday night and Sunday.
Yesterday's High: 33°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 24°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): Trace
|November 29 Historical Data||High||Low|
|Record Temperatures||59°F (1998)||40°F (1913)|
|-1°F (1958)||-16°F (1985)|
Next Update: Thursday, November 29, 2023 6 AM
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
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