Local Forecast


Monday, September 26, 2016 3:18 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Slow Improvement Through Mid-Week

Pesky Low to Hang Around One More Day

The low pumping all of the moisture over Minnesota has finally arrived in Minnesota overnight (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). Over the past week, this system has dropped between 2 and 5 inches of rain in much of central Minnesota (1.47 inches at the St. Cloud Airport; NWS will update this map later this morning) with much more in the northwestern Twin Cities and in south central and southeastern Minnesota. The rain has slowed down, but the persistent clouds have remained over Minnesota (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) with rain showers lingering across northeastern Minnesota. The flood warnings have continued in south central and southeastern Minnesota.

The upper low is getting stronger as it moves through Minnesota, but the good news is that it will drift southeastward during the next two days. That will be far enough away for us to see some improving weather during this work week. I think today will be the last day of completely cloudy weather. The air will be slightly more stable, so I only think there will be some spotty showers or sprinkles this afternoon, instead of the persistent rain. Late tonight, the storm will have moved far enough away to allow us to see some clearing. Tomorrow, we could actually see some morning sunshine before skies cloud up completely in the afternoon. By Wednesday, we could finally have a good supply of sunshine.

Highs will be in the 60's today and only around 60 tomorrow. All of the clouds will keep the lows in the 40's. There will also be a strong wind, so the combination of clouds and wind will make it feel much cooler than we are used to.

Sunshine by Mid-Week and Lingering For a While

This low is actually forecast to stall out across the Southern Appalachians for the bulk of the week. The strong low will block the advance of any other weather systems. This will be good news for Minnesota since the low is expected to move far enough away to allow us to stay in the sunshine, starting on Wednesday and continuing through the (don't jinx it) weekend. As sunshine returns, highs will likely return to the seasonably middle to upper 60's for the end of the week and could be in the 70's over the weekend.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Monday 9/26: Mostly cloudy, windy, and cooler. A chance of some spotty sprinkles or showers. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: WNW 15-30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Clearing, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 9/27: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon, breezy, and continued cool. High: between 58 and 64. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and continued cool. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 9/28: A cloudy start, then becoming sunny, light winds, and more seasonable. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Wednesday Night: Clearing, light winds, and cooler. Patchy fog possible by morning. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 9/29: Sunny, light winds, and seasonably warm. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clear and not quite as cool. Low: between 42 and 46. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Friday 9/30: Sunny, breezy, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: An actual sunny weekend??? Highs in the 70's???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday through Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 3 Friday.

Yesterday's High: 67F (set at 5 AM Sunday); Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 51F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): 0.03 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): TBA

Total Rainfall Since

Normal Temperatures for September 26 - High: 66F; Low: 43F
Next Update: Tuesday, September 27 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast