Wednesday, June 20, 2018 5:10 AM

More Sun, Fewer Clouds, But Still Some Lingering Humidity (Chance for Storms?)

(Note: I will be away for two weeks after today. Next forecast - Monday, July 9)

Flooding Closes Roads in East Central MN, Parts of Wisconsin

The aftermath of the weekend flooding continues in northeastern Minnesota. Several major roads and many secondary roads continue to be closed in northern Wisconsin. And, the St. Croix River is still way above average after hitting record heights yesterday. Hwy. 48 is closed east of Hinckley on the border. And, Hwy. 23 remains closed southwest of Duluth. Hwy. 47 near Glen has water still on the road (see Minnesota road reports map) and there is minor flooding expected along the Mississippi near Fort Ripley. There is also some flooding expected in Eau Claire. (see NWS Duluth summary of the flood)

Meanwhile, yesterday morning's showers (starting just as I went out to mow the lawn) only produced a trace at the St. Cloud Airport but definitely wetted my lawn. Still, St. Cloud through Paynesville and Willmar and southeastward to Clear Lake and the areas to the west of the Twin Cities are the "dry pocket in the rainy pattern that hit much of central and northeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin over the past week.

The active front produced another large blob of thunderstorms over Nebraska and Kansas last evening (see Shortwave Albedo loop from Colorado State slider satellite menu). High and middle clouds have streamed into the Dakotas and Minnesota from these storms, but most of the storms have remained in those states in Iowa ((see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). We've seen only a few sprinkles in central Minnesota, but the lingering clouds have again kept low temperatures in the 60's (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart). Dew points remain in the noticeable upper 50's (yellow on the UCAR hourly dew point map) while staying uncomfortable in the 60's in southern Minnesota and points south.

Storm Slowly Pulls Showers to South, Leaving Us With Warmer, Moderately Humid Days With Perhaps a Scattered Storm

The Northern Rockies storm system has two lows, one in Montana and the other nearby in Wyoming (see Mid-Tropospheric Water Vapor loop from Colorado State slider satellite menu). The eastern system will continue its leisurely trip eastward, reaching Iowa by tomorrow and staying there through the end of the week. That will continue to keep humidity noticeable to uncomfortable and raise the possibility of a few scattered showers. In central Minnesota, we will have the chance for morning sprinkles continuing, but will have a better chance for seeing some afternoon sun. That will allow temperatures to climb closer to 80 degrees.

For tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday, we will see lows near 60 with perhaps some fog. During the days, it will be at least partly sunny with highs in the upper 70's with more clouds, but in the low to middle 80's if we get a decent supply of sun, which I favor. There may be a few scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but I wouldn't let this threat dampen my outdoor plans. Humidity will remain noticeable to uncomfortable through the period.

Continued Much of the Same Into Next Week

We might get a little warmer on Sunday, with highs possibly being in the middle 80's. Another slow-moving West Coast storm is expected to push into the Northern or Central Plains early next week. If it sets up to our south, we will keep a low chance for storms, but remain fairly warm with significant humidity. If the next system eventually tracks over us, rain will be more widespread over Minnesota early next week.

Confidence Level: "I Will be Up Early to Make the Forecast"

Wednesday 6/20/2018: Morning clouds with perhaps a sprinkle, then afternoon sun, warmer and noticeably humid. A chance of a late day scattered shower or thunderstorm. High: between 77 and 83. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and continued mild. Low: between 58 and 63. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will See the Light On and Want Petting Instead of Forecasting"

Thursday 6/21/2018: Mixed clouds and sun with a slight chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Uncomfortably humid. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and noticeably humid. Low: between 60 and 66. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Shed Information on the Upcoming Weather, Rather Than Just Fur in My Hand"

Friday 6/22/2018: Partly sunny, warmer, and uncomfortably humid. A chance of a scattered late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 77 and 84. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, mild and humid. Low: between 60 and 66. Winds: light NE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 6/23/2018: Partly sunny, warm, and sticky with a chance of a scattered afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 78 and 88. Winds: light S. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, mild and humid. Low: between 60 and 66. Winds: light NE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 6/24/2018: Partly sunny, breezy and fairly humid. A slight chance of a scattered afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 78 and 84. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Warm and humid, but with little chance for rain through Monday??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Will more of your hair fall out, Bob?"; 0 - "Will the winning PowerBall Numbers be encoded in your lost hair, Bob?"): 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 6 Thursday and Thursday night, 5 Friday, 4 Friday night, 3 Saturday and Saturday night, 2 Sunday. .

Yesterday's High: 71°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Wednesday): 63°F
St. Cloud Airport 24 Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Wednesday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (through 5 AM Wednesday): 0.12 inch

Next Update: Monday, July 9, 2018 8 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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