St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Friday, July 20, 2018 5:40 AM

Bob Weisman
Meteorology Professor
Saint Cloud State University
Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department

Showers Leftovers Today; More Sun, But Still Sticky Weekend

Huge Rain Amounts in Western and Central Minnesota, But Not Quite to Little Falls, St. Cloud, Buffalo

The slow moving low pressure system spent yesterday drifting across Minnesota (see Mid-Tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State slider satellite menu). The rain was continuous and heavy in a swath of west central Minnesota from Breckenridge through Wheaton and into northeastern South Dakota. Some reports showed 2-3 inches of rain in this area. Parts of central Minnesota just to our west had heavy rainfall, including 3.15 inches in Paynesville, 2.09 inches in Sauk Centre, 1.60 inches in Alexandria, and 1.52 inch in Long Prairie. However, from St. Cloud eastward, the amounts dropped off with 0.41 inch in Buffalo, 0.37 inch in Little Falls, and St. Cloud Airport picking up 0.28 inch of rain. The cold air pocket aloft allowed a few isolated thunderstorms to produce funnel clouds near New London, Sanborn, and Benson late yesterday afternoon.

Occasional Showers or Drizzle Likely Today and Tonight

That low is in extreme western Wisconsin early this morning. You can see both the clouds (see Shortwave Albedo from Colorado State slider satellite menu) and the light rain showers (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop) circulating around the center. The heaviest rainfall is over in Minnesota, but the air is unstable enough that any attempt at clearing will quickly allow new clouds and rain showers to form. So, we will generally continue the on-and-off rain showers today. Rainfall won't be anything like the heavier amounts seen in west central and southwestern Minnesota, but there will be moisture in the air at all times with temperatures getting no higher than the lower 70's.

Warmer and Uncomfortably Humid Through Weekend With Some Scattered Showers

The low will linger in Wisconsin and Illinois into Saturday, so we will continue to have a lot of clouds around with the chance of some spotty showers or drizzle tonight. We could begin tomorrow with some sunshine, but there will be a lot of midday and afternoon clouds with a few scattered showers. More sunshine will allow temperatures to climb into the middle or perhaps the upper 70's, but it will still feel uncomfortably humid.

The sticky feel will continue through at least Monday since the winds won't be strong enough behind this low to bring in air from a region that didn't have rain. We should do a little better with sunshine on Sunday, but there will again be afternoon clouds. Highs will climb to near 80 with that uncomfortable humidity.

Eventual Cooling Trend Next Week, But Still Relatively Humid Monday and Tuesday

A cold front is due to push into Minnesota late Sunday night, so we could see a few more rain showers either with the front in the early morning or after the humid air gets heated in the afternoon. Highs will again climb into the lower 80's.

The cooler and drier weather pattern is still ahead of us for the middle of next week, but the latest computer information has slowed the push of the really dry air until Wednesday. That means a secondary cold front could produce some scattered storms Tuesday afternoon and it will still feel humid with highs near 80. It now appears that 70's and drier weather will rule central Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday. Temperatures up north could be quite cool with highs not making it out of the 60's and lows possibly in the 40's.

Confidence Level: "I Will be Up Early to Make the Forecast"

Friday 7/20/2018: Mostly cloudy with occasional rain or showers. Still sticky. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers or drizzle. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will See the Light On and Want Petting Instead of Forecasting"

Saturday 7/21/2018: Morning sun, lots of afternoon clouds with a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Continued uncomfortably humid. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partial clearing with areas of fog by morning. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 7/22/2018: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy in the afternoon and still uncomfortably humid. A slight chance of a shower. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Shed Information on the Upcoming Weather, Rather Than Just Fur in My Hand"

Sunday Night: Partly clear with a slight chance of a rain shower. Areas of fog possible. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: light and variable. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 7/23/2018: Partly sunny, breezy, warmer, and still uncomfortably humid. A chance of an afternoon scattered shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday Night: Clear, calm, cooler, and drier. Maybe some fog by morning. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: light and variable. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Tuesday 7/24/2018: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, breezy, a shade cooler and less humid. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Even cooler and less humid Wednesday through Friday (highs in the 70's)

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Will more of your hair fall out, Bob?"; 0 - "Will the winning PowerBall Numbers be encoded in your lost hair, Bob?"): 7 Friday, 6 Friday night, 5 Saturday through Sunday, 4 Sunday night through Monday, 3 Tuesday through Friday.

Yesterday's High: 71°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Friday): 63°F
St. Cloud Airport 24 Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Friday): 0.28 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 5 AM Friday): 0.30 inch

July 20 Historical Data High Low
Average Temperatures 83°F 59°F
Record Temperatures 105°F (1901) 80°F (1901)
66°F (1927) 41°F (1950)

Next Update: Monday, July 23, 2018 8 AM (or as needed)





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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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