Thursday, July 3, 2025  2:50 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Another Sultry Summer Taste, Followed by Natural Fireworks on Independence Day

Warm and Relatively Sticky Wednesday....

Minnesota had another relatively warm day Wednesday (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) with dew points creeping up through the 60's (see brown areas on the UCAR hourly dew point map). There are even some Florida-like 70 dew points in southern Minnesota early this morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). The generally warm and humid conditions continued the recent pattern of leading to a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, most notably from Brainerd to Lake Mille Lacs (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Those dissipated as the sun went down, but you can see the thunderstorms fueled by the increased mid-level moisture within the south-to-north flow from the Mexican Plateau rounding the northwestern flank of the high (clockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) and pushing from Montana and Wyoming into the far western Dakotas (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop).

...To Become Hot and Sultry Friday

That will set Minnesota up for a taste of the heat seen in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma (highs in the 90's on the 4 PM Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), except where more persistent clouds remained in Oklahoma and Texas. Highs in the 90's will be likely tomorrow. On top of that, the residual ground moisture will continue to produce the increasing moisture seen in southern Minnesota and Iowa, so our dew points are headed for the oppressive 70's by tonight and tomorrow.

The National Weather Service has already covered much of Minnesota in a heat advisory for Friday from midday through early evening. More areas may be added to this advisory later. The area of west central Minnesota has a heat advisory for this afternoon with another one likely tomorrow.

Storms as Humidity Increases Today

Today will be a transition day as the hottest and most humid air moves over our very warm and uncomfortably humid air. Today's high temperature may be a bit suppressed by more afternoon and evening clouds and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (40% shot) than we saw yesterday. There is a small chance for severe weather (category 1 of 5 in the NWS Storm Prediction Center outlook), mainly straight-line damaging winds or large hail. I still have highs in the upper 80's, although middle 80's may be possible if the clouds thicken enough. The bulk of the storms should push to our north and east by midnight, so the second half of the night will end up quite warm and uncomfortably humid. The evening shower has a shot to knock low temperatures into the upper 60's, but the higher humidity and a persistent south to southwest wind should keep temperatures in the steamy lower to even middle 70's after midnight.

Tomorrow will be the one sultry day of the next several. Assuming there are no leftover clouds from the Thursday night storms moving eastward from North Dakota into northern Minnesota and that the cold front stays to our west, we will have a shot at a high of 90 or above. Combined with the dew points in the lower 70's, heat indices should climb to the upper 90's (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for latest temperatures, dew points, and heat indices). There will be a strong southwest wind, helping conditions somewhat.

Storms As Cooler Air Tries to Push In Friday Night and Saturday

Then, we have the following round of showers and thunderstorms. The computer forecasts favor the best chance for storms on Friday night, but there will still be a good shot at storms during the middle and late evening, which could disrupt Independence Day evening concert and fireworks events. Again, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has category 1 of 5 severe weather threat for these storms. Part of the low category forecast is the assumption that temperatures remain in the lower 80's in Minnesota tomorrow and part of the lower category outlook is that the computer forecasts disagree about how quickly the cold front will push into Minnesota on Friday night.

Main Threat Heavy Rainfall

The threat for severe storms won't be as high as last week, since the upper-level winds will be weaker than during last week's severe weather outbreaks. That also means the heavy rain shaft from any slow-moving thunderstorm could linger over an area. And, there is the potential for several waves of storms hitting the same area between the late day activity today and the Friday night and Saturday shower threats. At this point, the NWS WPC has the lowest category of flood risk in its excessive rainfall outlook from Friday morning to Saturday morning (Day 3). The best chance of rain is forecast over northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota (see Days 1-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), which haven't seen the heavier rainfall common across central and southern Minnesota over the past month, but the southern portion of the Red River Valley has seen heavier rainfall (set time period to month and June 2025 on the NWS Water Prediction Service northern Plains rainfall map).

Uncertain About Saturday Afternoon

I am more uncertain about the second half of Saturday than Friday night into early Saturday. Because the computer forecasts cannot agree on how quickly the cold front eases through Minnesota, I am a bit more uncertain about where the afternoon and evening storms will develop. We are likely to have a break between the Saturday morning showers and thunderstorms and any Saturday afternoon activity. Right now, I am leaning towards the trend that more of the storms will be to our south and east, which would set us up for a decent supply of afternoon sun. That would push highs back into the 80's. Humidity will remain uncomfortable to stifling for a last day. And, I still have a 40% shot at afternoon showers and thunderstorms, partly in case the front remains closer to us and partly since the air behind the front will still be warm and moist enough to allow some scattered storms.

Back to Partly Cloudy, Chance of Storms Sunday (small chance) Well Into Next Week

After Saturday, air from the Canadian Prairie Provinces will allow the humidity to fall a bit. However, the continued wet ground will continue to support dew points mainly in the uncomfortable 60's with a few upper 50's into much of next week. That also means there will be a chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. I have a 1 in 5 shot for isolated Sunday afternoon showers. By late Monday, the weak winds will begin to blow the higher humidity air to our south back towards Minnesota, so I have a 1 in 3 chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

The larger features of next week's pattern include the hot high refocusing on the Rockies with cooler air over eastern Canada and the Northeastern US. However, that puts Minnesota again along or near the storm track, meaning a series of storms will move along the front. So, my best guess is that temperatures remain in the 80's with still uncomfortable dew points and uncertain chances of showers and thunderstorms. That's consistent with the 'blobs' of forecast rains over or near Minnesota on Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Air Quality Again a Canadian Issues, Which Makes it a Minnesota Issue

Any flow from Canada now means that the smoke plume near the Minnesota-Canada border (see daytime hours of the GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider) could work into Minnesota. Overnight, the low-level smoke concentrations that are orange or even red in southern Manitoba and central Saskatchewan (see EPA fire and smoke map) have gotten into the Boundary Waters (see Minnesota hourly air quality index from Minnesota Pollution Control Agency).

The winds will turn to the south, keeping that pollution in northern Minnesota today, but our winds will turn back to the northwest after Saturday's front goes by. There will be some rain the next 2-3 days in south central Canada, so some of the smoke might be washed out, but we will again have to monitor the pollution levels to see if we have another dirty air interlude this weekend or next week. The MPCA forecasters also note that particle pollution increases on Independence Day due to fireworks. However, all of the thunderstorms expected Friday night and Saturday could keep those effects small.

June 2025 St. Cloud Weather Summary Available

The June 2025 St. Cloud weather summary has been posted. In it, I discuss the temperature records, both warm and cool, and specifically note how often we get low temperatures of 80 or warmer, like on June 22. Also, I note the various rainfall totals (St. Cloud made it to a top 10 rainiest June) and how often we get a month with nearly 8 inches of rain. I have also linked the storm surveys from all of the Minnesota severe weather outbreaks during the second half of June.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 7/3/2025: Mostly sunny during the morning, mixed sun and clouds during the afternoon, continued very warm with uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 85 and 90. Winds: SE 8-18 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% during the morning, 40% during the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Perhaps an evening shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, partly cloudy, breezy, and even warmer with oppressive humidity. Low: between 68 and 73. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH evening, becoming SW 8-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% before midnight, 20% during the early morning hours.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday 7/4/2025: Mixture of clouds and sun, hot, and oppressively humid. A chance for a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Some storms could produce heavy rainfall or severe weather. High: between 90 and 95. Winds: SW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially from late evening on. Heavy rainfall likely with severe weather possible. Still uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. Low: between 67 and 72. Winds: SW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts in storms. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% before 9 PM, 80% after 9 PM.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday 7/5/2025: Cloudy with morning showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall is possible. Then becoming a mixture of sun and clouds during the midday and afternoon. Still, a chance for an middle or late afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Not quite as warm, but still uncomfortably to oppressively humid. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70% during the morning, 40% during the afternoon.

Saturday Night: A chance for an early evening scattered shower or thunderstorm, then partial clearing, not as warm, and not nearly as humid. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW-N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 7/6/2025: Partly sunny, breezy, and not quite as warm with merely noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. Areas of fog by morning. Low: between 63 and 68. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 7/7/2025: Sunny during the morning, partly sunny during the afternoon with a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Seasonably warm with humidity becoming more uncomfortable by afternoon. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH during the morning, becoming SW during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Extended: Seasonably warm and remaining humid with uncertain thunderstorm chances during the middle to end of next work week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Thursday, 5 Thursday night through Friday night, 3 Saturday, 4 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 89°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 67°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Next Update: Friday, July 4, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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