Thursday, April 24, 2014 3:25 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Soaking Rain To Resume Later This Morning

Late April Showers To Resume Late in the Weekend

The slow-moving storm system has reached the Central Plains (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). We've had mostly a break of from the steady rainfall overnight (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations), but that won't last. Showers and thunderstorms blossomed from Nebraska to Oklahoma yesterday afternoon and evening and have been pushing northeastward through the night. Those showers, which have reached the Minnesota-Iowa border in the early morning hours (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop), will continue to drift northeastward this morning, so the rain will resume shortly after daybreak and continue through midday. There could be some thunder in this rain. This could add more substantial rainfall to the 0.38 inch we've already picked up since yesterday afternoon.

As this slow-moving storm continues to ease eastward, we will see some improvement. The morning rain will taper off to just occasional showers this afternoon into early evening with partial clearing likely by tomorrow morning. The sunshine will finally return tomorrow midday and afternoon and stay with us through Saturday. Temperatures will remain in the miserable, wet 40's today and drop back to the upper 30's tonight. But, with the return of sunshine, readings will climb back into the 50's tomorrow and Saturday.

However, there's quite a traffic jam of storm systems from the West Coast out into the middle of the Pacific (see Pacific infrared loop from Colorado State RAMDIS). The second in the series of storms (not the one landfalling in Washington, but the one producing the clouds to the south of the Alaskan Aleutian Islands) will push southeastward into California by tomorrow, then strength as it moves through the Central Rockies and into the Southern Plains. That will drag loads of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and pull it northward. In the meantime, the cool Canadian high that will allow our weather to clear out tomorrow will stay in southern Canada, locking in cool air near the ground. The southern storm will pump warm air over top of the cool air, producing the ingredients for more substantial rainfall.

Clouds will redevelop on Saturday night as that warm air begins to rise over the cool air near the ground. We could see some on-and-off rain showers late Saturday night and Sunday, but it won't be a complete washout. The heaviest precipitation will come from leftovers from the likely severe weather outbreak in the Southern Plains, beginning Sunday and continuing into early next week. This raises the possibility of some heavy rainfall here beginning Sunday night and continuing through the first part of next week.

It will remain quite cool during this rainy period with temperatures again stuck in the 40's. On top of that, the strong high will produce strong east winds at 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

This rain is needed to help green up the surface plants and to relieve the moderate drought conditions in central and southwestern Minnesota.

It is warm season severe weather awareness week this week. Today's the day of the statewide tornado drill. You can find information about safety steps in severe weather through links provided by the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

See Forecast Below

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS HPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State RAMDIS Menu
• Colorado State Western IR Loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western Water Vapor Loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• Yesterday's Regional severe weather reports from NWS Chanhassen
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
  Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey
• US weather related deaths

Ground and Air Travel

• Minnesota (high bandwidth)
• Minnesota (faster loading)
• Iowa
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud April 2012 weather summary.
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• Minnesota State Climatology drought report from MN State Climatology Office (updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Thursday 4/24: Showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in the morning. Heavy rain possible. Steady rain tapering to occasional showers this afternoon. Still very cool. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: E-SE 5-15 MPH in the morning, becoming NW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 100% this morning, 50% in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Chance of evening rain showers, then cloudy and a shade cooler. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday 4/25: Becoming partly sunny and not as miserable. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: WNW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, still breezy, and cooler. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: E-NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 4/26: Mostly sunny and continued a bit on the cool side. High: between 54 and 58. Winds: E 10-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Thickening clouds, windy, and cold with a chance of rain or showers developing. Low: between 34 and 38. Winds: E 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday 4/27: Cloudy with a chance of occasional rain showers, windy, and chilly. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: E 15-30 MPH Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: Rain and showers likely. Continued chilly. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: E 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Monday 4/28: More rain likely. Continued chilly and windy. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: E 15-25 MPH Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Slow improvement towards the middle of next week. Highs near 50 on Tuesday. Good supply of sunshine returns Wednesday. Highs in the 50's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 9 Thursday, 8 Thursday night and Friday, 7 Friday night and Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 47°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 41°F
St. Cloud Prison Storm Total Precipitation (through 3 AM): 0.38 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM): TBA

Normal Temperatures for April 24 - High: 61°F; Low: 36°F
Next Update: Friday, April 25, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.