Wednesday, March 12, 2014 3:59 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Vacation from the Thaw Today, Then Meltdown Continues
A cold front went through Monday night, but temperatures still managed to climb into the 40's in Minnesota yesterday (see 3-day loop of high temperatures from SUNY-Albany). While the high temperature was well short of a record, St. Cloud missed by one day setting a record warm low temperature. Yesterday's low temperature was 35 degrees, which would have been warm enough to tie the record on March 9 or 10, but the March 11 record warm low is 45 degrees.
This morning; we have cooler air, but a persistent northwest wind (see UCAR
Minnesota surface chart loop) has kept temperatures falling much beyond 20 degrees. Today will be the "chilly" day with highs topping out in the middle to upper 20's. That is nearly 10 degrees colder than average, but still much warmer than what we've had most of the winter. The northwest winds will ease off a bit and switch to southwest before the end of the day.
We are beginning the day with clear skies (see infrared loop from College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), but there is a patch of low clouds streaming from Manitoba into eastern North Dakota. Those clouds are associated with the leading edge of the much milder air (see NWS
HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). That front will begin to push eastward again as a warm front by this evening. We have a shot at some light snow or flurries this time as the front goes through. If we get any accumulating snow, it would only be the second time in the past two weeks and would be limited to between a dusting and an inch.
However, the big change will be the surge of warmer temperatures again for Thursday and Friday. Highs will make it well into the 40's tomorrow and to around 40 on Friday with lows likely near or even above freezing Thursday night. We may see a brief rain shower when the cold front comes through tomorrow evening, but that will about do it.
We will continue the alternation between the thaw and cooler than average (but nothing like the teeth of this winter) temperatures into next week. Saturday and Sunday, we'll see the cooldown with highs limited to the middle 20's, but the next wave of 40's should develop for early next week. The weekend cold surge has the potential to pull some of the really cold air from northern Alaska and the Yukon southward into Ontario, Quebec, and the Northeastern US Sunday into early next week, but it will merely brush the Arrowhead. Most storms will pass to the north of St. Cloud, so that gives us very little chance of seeing any precipitation.
The temperature roller coaster will continue well into next week. I don't trust any storm forecast 7-10 days out, but anyone that looks like it could affect Minnesota one day disappears from the forecast the next run, so there's nothing to point at for a potential storm. So, we will continue this nice, steady meltdown, just what we need to minimize the threat of snowmelt flooding.
See Forecast Below
Ground and Air Travel
Wednesday 3/12: Sunny, but colder. Some increasing clouds late. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH, becoming SE 5-10 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries, breezy, and milder. Between a dusting and an inch of new snow is possible. Temperatures in the teens early, rising into the 20's by sunrise. Winds:
8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.
Thursday 3/13: Increasing sunshine, breezy, and warmer again. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Thursday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance of a rain shower, then turning breezy. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Friday 3/14: Sunny, and not quite as mild. High: between 36 and 42. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance of a flurry or snow shower in the evening, then windy and turning more seasonably cold. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.
Saturday 3/15: Sunny, breezy, and colder. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Saturday Night: Partly clear and colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Sunday 3/16: Sunny in the morning, some high clouds in the afternoon, not as windy, and continued cold. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH, becoming SE during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Sunday Night: Cloudy, windy, and turning milder. Low: between 15 and 20 with rising temperatures late at night. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.
Monday 3/17: Sunny, breezy, and warmer. A slight chance of a late day rain shower. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and mild with a slight chance of a rain shower. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: becoming NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Tuesday 3/18: Sunny, breezy, and not quite as warm. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Extended: Continued alternating between cooler than average and melting through much of next week.
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Tuesday through Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday. 3 Sunday.
Yesterday's High: 43°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 20°F
St. Cloud Storm Total Precipitation: None; SCSU Precipitation: None
Normal Temperatures for March 12 - High: 37°F;
Next Update: Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.