Local Forecast


Wednesday, July 29, 2015 8:43 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Finishing A Wet and Seasonably Cool July

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An Air Mass of A Different Moisture

The showers and thunderstorms quickly wound down yesterday morning (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). We kept the clouds around and the high humidity for most of the day, but the much drier air pushed in late yesterday on northwest winds (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). This morning, temperatures still held in the mild 60's, thanks to the persistently strong winds (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map), but the dew points are in the refreshing upper 40's.

Wind Advisory Today

The strong winds will continue today and tomorrow since there is a big pressure difference (6 brown isobars across Minnesota) between the low pressure area in Manitoba and the high pressure area along the Montana-Idaho border. That means that we will see northwest winds of 20-35 MPH with gusts of 40-45 MPH. There is a wind advisory out for eastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, and all of Minnesota, except southeastern Minnesota from the Twin Cities to Albert Lea and LaCrescent.

Mostly Dry With Only Small Shower Chances Through Sunday

This seasonably warm and dry air mass will dominate the rest of the work week. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80's. If the winds let up enough at night, lows will drop into the 50's. A clear, calm night would have the potential lows in the 40's, but we may see wind and even some clouds at times. There actually will be a weak low pressure system moving from the Canadian Prairie Provinces across Minnesota tomorrow evening, but the much drier air mass will only be able to touch off a few widely scattered showers late tomorrow or tomorrow evening.

Another storm system could produce a few late Saturday or Saturday night showers. There might be a stronger system, but it has been delayed again until Monday, meaning that I have little confidence in that timing.

July Near Average Temperatures, Very Wet So Far

Through yesterday, the July St. Cloud Airport rainfall is 7.18 inches, now the 7th wettest July in St. Cloud records and the wettest since 1986. The May-July rainfall is 17.87 inches, 7.44 inches above average and the 4th wettest May-July total on record. The last late spring and early summer that was wetter was in 1990 (19.41 inches), which featured 10.56 inches in June, the third wettest month in St. Cloud records. This July is also St. Cloud's wettest month since August 1995 (7.35 inches).

Through yesterday, the average St. Cloud July temperature is 70.5°F, only 0.1°F from average. Still, there haven't been any 90-degree highs so far in July. Only July 2009 since 1996 has gone without a 90-degree high. The last time there was one or fewer days with a 90-degree high through the end of July was 1993..

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Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Wind Advisory 10 AM to 5 PM

Wednesday 7/29: Sunny, windy, seasonably warm, and much drier. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Clear, still breezy, and seasonably mild. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 7/30: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, warm, and continued comfortable humidity. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: WNW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear and continued seasonably mild. A slight chance of an evening shower. Low: between 57 and 63. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 7/31: Sunny and continued warm and dry. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear and continued seasonably mild. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 8/1: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"

Saturday Night: Maybe an evening shower, then clearing and continued seasonably mild. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: becoming N-NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 8/2: Partly sunny and warmer with a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Chance of storms Monday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Wednesday through Thursday, 7 Thursday night and Friday, 6 Friday night, 5 Saturday and Saturday night, 4 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 83F; Overnight Low (through 8 AM): 65F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 8 AM Wednesday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (Through 8 AM Wednesday): Trace

Normal Temperatures for July 29 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Thursday, July 30, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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