Saturday, June 25, 2022 6:00 AM 

Much Quieter Weather Ahead This Week

From Brown Grass to Top 10 Wettest Apr-June

Over the past 10 days, central Minnesota has had a stunning reversal. Through the first 19 days of June, St. Cloud had only picked up 0.15 inch of rain, 2.34 inches below average. This had somewhat reversed the trend since May, as brown grass popped up where there wasn't daily watering. However, around the two hot periods in the last week, substantial rain fell both on the 20th and over last weekend. Last weekend's rain concentrated in central Minnesota, thanks to the repeated thunderstorms over much of Crow Wing, Morrison, eastern Stearns, and Benton Counties. And, Ottertail County had huge rainfall on Friday night into Saturday. These areas picked up over 8 inches of rain (red areas on NWS Minnesota 7-day rainfall map). While St. Cloud Regional Airport "only received" 4.28 inches of rain (the northeast side of Sartell had 7.11 inches), that pushed the June rainfall to 5.11 inches, 1.87 inches above the June average. Since April 1, usually regarded as the start of the growing season, the St. Cloud Regional Airport has picked up 15.89 inches of rain, 5.87 inches above average. That's the 8th highest April through June rainfall in St. Cloud records, which go back to 1897. The last April-June that was wetter was 2014 (18.82 inches, which is the highest total).

Fortunately, the Mississippi River has remained within its banks in central Minnesota, although it has been approaching an alert level in Fort Ripley. Ditches and streams are bankfull in much of the area, but only minor flooding is going on. Hwy. 10 has reopened between Little Falls and Motley, but the westbound road is down to one lane in the Cushing area (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports).

Storms This Week Will Be Less Important

However, this week will mainly have west-to-east steering winds, meaning little opportunity to bring the mother lode of humid air northward. In fact, dew points in the 60's have been shoved southward into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas (see UCAR hourly dew point chart). While we will have some chances for showers, with the best shot on Wednesday night and Thursday, the potential for heavy rainfall will be quite low.

Strong Sat-Sun Winds Also Eased Overnight

Meanwhile, the forces that produced the rain early in the weekend and the wind Saturday and Sunday have both eased up. The rain left by midday Saturday and the clouds finally broke up by yesterday morning (see clean infrared satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider). However, a series of upper-air lows were pushing from Saskatchewan and Manitoba into northern Minnesota and Ontario (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), bringing very windy conditions to Minnesota from late Saturday through yesterday (see NWS: 72-hours of St. Cloud observations). Wind gusts were as high as 39 MPH midday yesterday. And, the cold pocket of air aloft still produced a number of clouds, which combined with the winds and the much cooler air to limit high temperatures to the lower 70's. There were even some widespread 60's to our north, where the clouds were more persistent (see 4 PM Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

The last of the upper-air lows are pushing through northwest Minnesota now (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). There has been some clearing (see College of DuPage shortwave IR loop), and the wind has calmed (see new NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), so temperatures are in the 40's away from the area that got the heaviest rain. Where it was rainier, temperatures are in the low and middle 50's. There is even some patchy fog.

More Sun, Still A PM Shower Possible, and Warmer Monday

We will see more sunshine this morning than yesterday. There will still be some puffy clouds during the midday and afternoon with a few isolated showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm possible. But, the much drier air near the ground will make any rainfall quite light. And, that last low will be out of Minnesota by this afternoon, allowing highs to return to around 80 degrees. Dew points will remain comfortable.

Scattered Late Mon Nt-Early Tues Storms, Then Warmer, and More Humid

More humid air will try to push into Minnesota during the middle part of the week. Any storms, however, will be weak, so there won't be nearly as much energy for thunderstorms. Still, we will have a chance at a few scattered showers late tonight through midday tomorrow. There should be some sunny periods during the afternoon. Highs will be in the 80's with uncomfortable humidity.

Short Drier Period Tues Nt into Wed

Another short period of drier weather will move in Tuesday night. Lows will be in the lower 50's over the area that got all of the weekend rain. There will be some 40's to the west any north. And, some fog is possible.

Better Chance for Storms (But Nothing Like Thurs-Sat) Wed Night and Thursday

On Wednesday afternoon, the next wave of more humid air will try to move in, so dew points will be in the noticeable upper 50's. Highs will be in the 80's with strong southeast winds. The best chance for storms this week will be late Wednesday night through midday Thursday as the moister air pushes in. We will break out into some afternoon sun on Thursday with only a slight chance of a shower. That will produce another high in the 80's.

Cooler and Drier to Start Weekend

Cooler and drier air will move in Thursday night, so Friday's high will be in the middle to upper 70's with comfortable dew points. This dry air will get the Independence Day weekend off to a comfortable start. The computer forecasts disagree about whether much warmer air can move in late in the weekend and what the chance for thunderstorms will be.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "I Will Have to Remove Five-Foot High Snow Piles to Put Out the Trash"

Monday 6/27/2022: Morning sun, mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, a shade warmer, and not nearly as windy. High: between 77 and 82. Winds:WNW 8-15 MPH with some afternoon gusts of 20-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Monday Night: Clear with light winds evening, clouding up, breezy, and becoming noticeably humid after midnight. A chance of a shower towards dawn. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SW 5 MPH evening, S 5-15 MPH after midnight. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Tuesday 6/28/2022: Cloudy with a scattered morning or midday shower or thunderstorm, then clearing by mid-afternoon. Warmer and uncomfortably humid. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH, becoming NW 15-25 MPH from mid-afternoon on. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Tuesday Night: Clearing, breezy, and much cooler. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NE-E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 6/29/2022: Partly sunny, breezy, very warm, and becoming noticeably humid in the afternoon. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Continuing Snow Melt Will Make It Icy Right Where I Have to Change My Balance and Throw the Snow"

Wednesday Night: Partly clear with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm, breezy, warm, and uncomfortably humid. Low: between 63 and 68. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Thursday 6/30/2022: Maybe an early shower or thunderstorm, then becoming partly sunny, breezy, still warm, and uncomfortably humid. High: between 82 and 87. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH morning, NW 10-25 MPH afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear, windy during the evening, turning cooler, and less humid. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Melting Maven Will Magically Make My Sidewalk Ice Disappear Overnight"

Friday 7/1/2022: Morning sun, mixed clouds and sun afternoon with a slight chance of a sprinkle, breezy, cooler, and drier. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with afternoon gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Seasonably warm over July 4 Weekend??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Monday, 6 Monday night through Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night through Thursday night, 3 Friday.

Yesterday's High: 72°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM Monday): 54°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None (Weekend Total: 4.28 inches since Thursday night); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None (Weekend total: 5.34 inches since Thursday night)

Next Update: Tuesday, June 28, 2022 7 AM (or as needed)

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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