Wednesday, March 12, 2014 3:59 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Vacation from the Thaw Today, Then Meltdown Continues

A cold front went through Monday night, but temperatures still managed to climb into the 40's in Minnesota yesterday (see 3-day loop of high temperatures from SUNY-Albany). While the high temperature was well short of a record, St. Cloud missed by one day setting a record warm low temperature. Yesterday's low temperature was 35 degrees, which would have been warm enough to tie the record on March 9 or 10, but the March 11 record warm low is 45 degrees.

This morning; we have cooler air, but a persistent northwest wind (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop) has kept temperatures falling much beyond 20 degrees. Today will be the "chilly" day with highs topping out in the middle to upper 20's. That is nearly 10 degrees colder than average, but still much warmer than what we've had most of the winter. The northwest winds will ease off a bit and switch to southwest before the end of the day.

We are beginning the day with clear skies (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), but there is a patch of low clouds streaming from Manitoba into eastern North Dakota. Those clouds are associated with the leading edge of the much milder air (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). That front will begin to push eastward again as a warm front by this evening. We have a shot at some light snow or flurries this time as the front goes through. If we get any accumulating snow, it would only be the second time in the past two weeks and would be limited to between a dusting and an inch.

However, the big change will be the surge of warmer temperatures again for Thursday and Friday. Highs will make it well into the 40's tomorrow and to around 40 on Friday with lows likely near or even above freezing Thursday night. We may see a brief rain shower when the cold front comes through tomorrow evening, but that will about do it.

We will continue the alternation between the thaw and cooler than average (but nothing like the teeth of this winter) temperatures into next week. Saturday and Sunday, we'll see the cooldown with highs limited to the middle 20's, but the next wave of 40's should develop for early next week. The weekend cold surge has the potential to pull some of the really cold air from northern Alaska and the Yukon southward into Ontario, Quebec, and the Northeastern US Sunday into early next week, but it will merely brush the Arrowhead. Most storms will pass to the north of St. Cloud, so that gives us very little chance of seeing any precipitation.

The temperature roller coaster will continue well into next week. I don't trust any storm forecast 7-10 days out, but anyone that looks like it could affect Minnesota one day disappears from the forecast the next run, so there's nothing to point at for a potential storm. So, we will continue this nice, steady meltdown, just what we need to minimize the threat of snowmelt flooding.

See Forecast Below

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS HPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State Pacific RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Atlantic Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• Yesterday's Regional severe weather reports from NWS Chanhassen
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
  Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey
• US weather related deaths

Ground and Air Travel

• Minnesota (high bandwidth)
• Minnesota (faster loading)
• Iowa
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud April 2012 weather summary.
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• Minnesota State Climatology drought report from MN State Climatology Office (updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Wednesday 3/12: Sunny, but colder. Some increasing clouds late. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH, becoming SE 5-10 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries, breezy, and milder. Between a dusting and an inch of new snow is possible. Temperatures in the teens early, rising into the 20's by sunrise. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Thursday 3/13: Increasing sunshine, breezy, and warmer again. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance of a rain shower, then turning breezy. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 3/14: Sunny, and not quite as mild. High: between 36 and 42. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance of a flurry or snow shower in the evening, then windy and turning more seasonably cold. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 3/15: Sunny, breezy, and colder. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear and colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 3/16: Sunny in the morning, some high clouds in the afternoon, not as windy, and continued cold. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH, becoming SE during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Sunday Night: Cloudy, windy, and turning milder. Low: between 15 and 20 with rising temperatures late at night. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Monday 3/17: Sunny, breezy, and warmer. A slight chance of a late day rain shower. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and mild with a slight chance of a rain shower. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: becoming NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Tuesday 3/18: Sunny, breezy, and not quite as warm. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued alternating between cooler than average and melting through much of next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Tuesday through Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday. 3 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 43°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 20°F
St. Cloud Storm Total Precipitation: None; SCSU Precipitation: None

Normal Temperatures for March 12 - High: 37°F; Low: 18°F
Next Update: Thursday, March 13, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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