Thursday, November 20, 2025  3:05 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

More Sun, More Warmth into Weekend, But December Sampler Likely Near Thanksgiving

Cloudy With Sprinkles Wednesday and Overnight

A weak storm system moved from the Dakotas into Minnesota yesterday (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), but the radar echoes and few sprinkles (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) moved mainly to the north of central Minnesota. However, the persistent low clouds (see College of DuPage North America shortwave infrared satellite loop) remained as new areas developed in west central Minnesota and moved eastward. This kept a misty feel with some sprinkles that evaporated before reaching the ground. The net effect was a cooler high temperature on Wednesday than we had Tuesday (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest).

Sunshine Should Return Midday Today and Last Through Weekend

However, there has been a clearing trend to our west overnight, so sunshine should break out by midday today. The next two days should also have a good supply of sun since the upstream storm system in the northern storm track should remain in south central Canada while the strong California storm system (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will remain to our south. That will allow air that has descended the eastern side of the Canadian Rockies into Minnesota, so highs today and Saturday should climb into the 50's. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler, but still warmer than average, with highs in the middle 40's. Low temperatures will be cooler than the first half of last night (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) since there will be fewer clouds around. Lows should fall back into the 20's tonight and tomorrow night.

Sunday doesn't appear to be as sunny, so highs will end up around 50 degrees.

Next Measurable, But Light Precipitation Threat Monday(??) into Tuesday

By Monday, a stronger storm system will be approaching from the Canadian Prairie Provinces. This isn't the storm approaching Oregon and northern California (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider); that one will follow the southern storm track into the southern Rockies by early next week. Our next system will be the one along the Aleutian Islands, which will stay in the northern storm track, pushing into Minnesota by next Wednesday. This storm has been shown consistently during the past couple of days of forecasts, so I have confidence that we will get a lot colder after its cold front comes through on Tuesday. The inconsistent part is the precipitation forecast. Some of the forecasts have a shot at light rain showers on Monday afternoon, since some of the moisture in the southern storm could be brought in. Other forecasts bring in enough moisture for rain Monday night into Tuesday. It does appear that any Monday or Tuesday precipitation would be rain.

Monday's high temperature will depend on how long the rain holds off. Potential highs would be in the 40's if we have some rain, but again near 50 if the rain holds off until Monday.

Getting Colder Approaching Thanksgiving? Some Wednesday Light Snow or Flurries?

The colder air comes in behind the storm later on Tuesday. The latest forecasts have the upper air low pushing right over Minnesota on Wednesday. While northern Minnesota might be cold enough to have some of the rain showers turn to snow flakes on Tuesday, any occasional light snow or flurries in Minnesota on Wednesday would likely fall as snow. There may be the potential for some light accumulation in northern and central Minnesota, but the most likely area for accumulation will be along the south shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

How cold could we be from Wednesday through Friday? Highs might be in the lower 30's or even the upper 20's with the coldest temperatures more likely Wednesday and Thursday. Moderation of the cold would only begin next weekend.

Winter Hazards Awareness Week Nov 17-21

Winter Hazards Awareness Week continues in Minnesota (also see page from NWS Duluth) and Wisconsin. Today's topic is indoor air quality. Doors and windows remained closed during most of the season, so any build-up of carbon monoxide can be dangerous. Allergy sufferers can also have trouble with mold or mildew build up. Other information is available on winter topics from the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 11/20/2025: Morning clouds with some spotty drizzle, afternoon sun, breezy, and milder. Elevated fire danger during the afternoon. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clearing, light winds, and colder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: W 5 MPH. Wind chill: between 18 and 23. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday 11/21/2025: Sunny, light winds, and not quite as warm. High: between 43 and 48. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Partly clear evening, cloudy late, light winds, and not quite as cool. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: NE 5 MPH evening, S 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 11/22/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Partly clear with light winds, but milder. Low: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, diminishing late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 11/23/2025: More sunshine, perhaps dimmed by high clouds, breezy, and still mild. High: between 47 and 53. Winds: E-SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear and continued mild, but with a biting breeze. Low: between 32 and 37. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Monday 11/24/2025: Clouding up, breezy, and mild with a slight chance for a late day rain shower. High: between 47 and 53. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: A chance of some rain showers Monday night and Tuesday?? Colder Wednesday through Friday??? Perhaps some light snow or flurries Wednesday????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Thursday through Friday, 6 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night, 3 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 43°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Thursday): 41°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Thursday): None

Next Update: Friday, November 21, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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