Monday, November 10, 2025  3:15 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Don't Box Up Early Fall Clothes Yet!

First Taste of December Last Weekend

The colder air delivered the occasional flurries, as a slow-moving upper-air low hung around the Great Lakes (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) and our first prolonged streak of below freezing temperatures from Saturday evening through this morning (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). Yesterday's high of 26 degrees (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) was our coldest high since March 1. Temperatures got as chilly as 18 degrees on Sunday morning with wind chills briefly dropping to 9 degrees. If you watched any weekend football from Iowa or Chicago, you saw the either light rain and drizzle on Saturday and snow showers on Sunday (yes, I will watch a game just to watch the snow fall), but there were 3-6 inches of snow in the Sioux Falls area and 1-3 inches in southwestern Minnesota Friday into Friday night (set time period to 48 or 72 hours on the NWS snowfall analysis). And, the first lake effect storm of the season dumped 4-12 inches on the south shore of Lake Superior in Upper Michigan. We had some stray snowflakes at times from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Even though temperatures were cold enough for accumulation on Sunday, there wasn't enough snow to generate any accumulation here (1-2 inches over the Boundary Waters away from Lake Superior).

Transition to Much Warmer Than Average by Later in Work Week

This morning, where skies have cleared in the Dakotas and northern Minnesota, so you can see the warmer water of the Missouri River, Devils Lake, and some of the northern Minnesota lakes as darker colors (see College of DuPage shortwave IR loop ), temperatures have cooled under calm winds so there are low teens and even single digits in the Dakotas (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). However, note that the upper-air low that has pumped in the really cold air continues to push eastward. At the same time, high pressure (clockwise circulation) over the US and especially the Canadian Rockies (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) is already replacing the unseasonably cold air with milder conditions. While the December-like readings extended through the Dakotas and much of the Canadian Prairie Provinces yesterday (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), note that highs had returned to the 40's in central Montana and even 50's in western Alberta. We will see this major warming trend, especially from tomorrow on. By Thursday afternoon, 50 degrees should be possible (warmer than the average Halloween). Friday will have a shot at highs well into the 50's and perhaps approaching 60. Lows will moderate to the 20's from tonight on, although breezy conditions will keep some wind chills in the lower 20's or upper teens. We will see lows near freezing later in the week.

However, Veterans' Day celebrations will still require some warm clothes. Temperatures will bottom out near 30 late tonight with wind chills in the upper teens to middle 20's through part of tomorrow morning.

Continued Dry Through Week

There are some fairly impressive looking cloud tops as the warmer air flows over the top of the Canadian Rockies into the rest of Alberta (see red areas on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). The strong lift of the warm air over both the mountains and the leftover cold air is producing these really cold clouds. However, low level moisture is really lacking (less than 15 mm, 0.6 inch) from Alberta eastwards, so we will see periods of high and middle clouds during our temperature recovery, but there won't be a good shot at precipitation (chances in the 10 percents tonight, but that's about it).

Weekend: ????

The weather pattern by the end of the week shows weather systems moving mostly west-to-east over North America, but there will be the possibility of weather systems split between northern and southern storm tracks. If the tracks unite, there would be a chance for a wetter system to push from the West closer to us by late in the weekend. However, there is a recent trend to keep the tracks separate, which would make it more difficult to get a decent amount of moisture into any northern track storm that might affect us. So, the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast has some precipitation getting closer to us during Days 6 and 7, but that's a shaky forecast. The uncertainty also makes it hard to do a temperature forecast for next weekend. Several possibilities show the potential for above average temperatures to continue, but a stronger northern storm track could bring in at least seasonably cold air. Overall, my weekend forecast is ???? at this point.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 11/10/2025: More sunshine through some high clouds, less windy, and not quite as cold. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH, becoming SW by afternoon. Early wind chill: in the teens. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cold, but still a chilly wind. A slight chance of a flurry or sprinkle. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 18 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 11/11/2025: Early November-like temperatures return. Early morning clouds yielding to sunny to partly cloudy skies, breezy, and milder. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH early in the morning, becoming NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts from late morning on. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Partly to mostly clear, still breezy, and continued cool. Low: between 28 and 34. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Late night wind chill: between 18 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday 11/12/2025: Sunshine through some high clouds, continued breezy, and a bit colder. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: in the 20's during the morning. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear with lighter winds and a bit colder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5 MPH, becoming SW late. Wind chill: between 18 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 11/13/2025: Partly sunny and not as breezy with temperatures returning to near Halloween averages. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, a bit more breezy, and milder. Low: between 32 and 37. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between 26 and 32. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Friday 11/14/2025: Sunshine through high clouds and windy with a return to mid-October temperatures. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Morning wind chill: between 28 and 35. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Next chance for significant precipitation Saturday or Saturday night??? Not quite as warm through weekend???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday, 7 Monday night, 8 Tuesday and Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night, 6 Thursday through Friday, 2 Weekend

Yesterday's High: 26°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Monday): 23°F; Top Wind Gust Last 24 Hours (through 3 AM Monday): 36 MPH at 8:53 AM Sunday
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): Trace Snow; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): Trace Snow; Coldest Wind Chill Last 24 Hours (through 3 AM Monday): 9°F at 5 AM Sunday

Next Update: Tuesday, November 11, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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