Tuesday, December 9, 2025  6:10 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Series of Unfortunate Storms Continues With Snow-Ice Mix Later Today and Tonight

The parade of storms across parts of Minnesota continued yesterday. The National Weather Service area snowfall map has a combination of snowfalls from yesterday's early morning system (0.8 inch in St. Cloud with up to 2 inches in the Alexandria area) and from another wave of snow that pushed across Minnesota late yesterday afternoon and evening (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Pillager's and Nisswa's reports are from 8 PM last evening and show a bit more than 2 inches.

As of 6 AM, St. Cloud had another 1.2 inches from last night, on top of the 0.8 inches yesterday morning.

That snow has pushed into the Arrowhead and Wisconsin during the early morning hours, but there will only be a short interlude until the next storm, now moving through northern British Columbia (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop), races through central or southern Minnesota by this evening. This will be a stronger storm, more similar to the second of our snowstorms during Thanksgiving week, so it will have the potential to produce half an inch of liquid precipitation or more in a narrow band across central Minnesota. The difference between this storm and the one on Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend is that tonight's system will have much milder air to its south (see wedge of highs in the 40's in South Dakota on yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). So, areas in the center and the southern half of the precipitation band will see the precipitation begin as a mixture of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain, slowing down the accumulation in the center of the band, and creating a potential icing issue at the southern edge of the band. In addition, the most recent computer runs have tended even faster with this system than earlier, which would reduce the precipitation potential. And, the two main forecast models still differ a bit on the track.

Potential Accumulations from Tuesday PM-Wednesday Early Morning Storm

My area of most likely snow will be between Fargo, Fergus Falls, Brainerd, Aitkin, and Pine City, in the region of half inch liquid amounts forecast in the Day 1 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast. In that region, where less of the snow will be mixed, I would forecast between 4 and 7 inches of snow (a little bit lower than the snowfall shown on the 18 UTC Wednesday tab, noon CST Wednesday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Over Ortonville, Alexandria, Willmar, St. Cloud, Big Lake, Mora, and Taylors Falls, we will have that mixed bag of snow beginning some time during the middle of this afternoon, then turning over to a fluffier snow during the evening before tapering to flurries after midnight. I have dropped my accumulations to between 2 and 5 inches because of the faster movement of the storm. And this is a bit further to the south than the prime areas shown on the 18 UTC Wednesday tab of the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). I still am expecting an overnight changeover to some snow in the Twin Cities, Hutchinson, Redwood Falls, and Benson, but there will be a period of freezing rain or sleet breaking out later this afternoon. There is still some chance for the larger snow amounts, better in the northern Twin Cities suburbs than in the southern half of the metropolitan area, but that is more uncertain. I would put the forecast as an icy mix from mid-afternoon through early evening, then between 1 and 3 inches of wet snow until around midnight, but with a chance for more snow in the northern portion of the Twin Cities. Further south, the precipitation will be lighter, but there is still a threat for some light freezing rain or sleet (set time tab to 12 UTC, 6 AM CST, Wednesday, and precipitation type to freezing rain on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). That, and the possibility that some of the heavier precipitation could drift a bit southward. That's why the National Weather Service has most of the area from the Minnesota River Valley to southwestern and south central Minnesota in a winter storm watch. The winter storm warning covers the northern part of the area I see with the mixed bag turning to snow (I would extend the area south and west to Willmar, Monticello, and Maple Grove) and stretches northward to Duluth, Grand Rapids, and Walker.

Chance for White Out Conditions At Tail End of Storm

Since this storm is expected to be strong, there will be strong winds on the back side of it. Since the snow pack in parts of central and southern Minnesota is already in the 4-10 inch range (see dark blue on the NWS NOHRSC snow depth map) and the snow expected this evening will be fluffier, some areas could end up with the 10-inch snow pack with some fluffy snow on top. That would be enough to cause major blowing and drifting problems on roads during the end of the snow and late at night, when the winds will be strong (15-30 MPH with some gusts over 50 MPH; see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). In any case, travel will be difficult, if not impossible from the middle afternoon, when mixed precipitation is most likely through overnight (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports for the latest conditions).

Colder Than Average Wednesday and Thursday, Similar to the Weekend

We will get more of a break between tonight's storm and the next potential front (due sometime Thursday night and Friday). While it will be windy through midday tomorrow, the air behind this system won't be colder than what we've seen for much of the past week. Highs will generally be in the teens to perhaps 20 on Wednesday and Thursday and we will have a good shot at sub-zero lows Wednesday night and perhaps a chance if we are clear through midnight on Thursday night.

Slab of Truly Arctic Air to Visit Friday Through Sunday

The next storm system will be a minor one in advance of the slab of cold air now associated with the high spread from northeastern Alaska to the western Northwest Territories. Considering the time shift, the midday temperatures yesterday still ranged from the minus 20's to the minus 40's, although time of day doesn't mean much with so few sunlight hours. That cold air is still forecast to come barreling through south central Canada by late Thursday and into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Friday through the weekend. The latest forecasts have slowed the movement of this true arctic air a bit, so it appears Minnesota will linger within it from Friday, when temperatures will fall, then steady in the plus single digits, through Saturday, when the high may stay below zero, into Sunday, when highs could only be a few degrees off of zero. Having a day that the temperature is below zero all day is a sign of a major arctic outbreak in Minnesota, despite whatever hype is going on. Temperatures Friday night will fall to the minus single digits to perhaps minus teens and lows on Saturday night will be at least in the minus teens and could hit -20 (another sign of a true arctic air mass).

Serious Wind Chills Means Be Prepared

Even if the winds stay up, we will have wind chills bordering on -25 on Saturday and Sunday mornings. Those wind chills are serious enough to cause frostbite issues for unprotected if you are out for 30 minutes or more (white number range on the NWS Wind Chill chart). You will definitely need to pack your cold weather supply kit for your car. You can stay up to date on the latest temperatures, winds, and wind chills using the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up).

We are due for a return all the way to near average temperatures early next week, so the weather pattern will keep moving, but the real cold this weekend will be more prolonged than I had thought. This cold air will come with a chunk of the Yukon high, so we will have another bad period for those with joints or sinuses sensitive to major pressure changes Friday through Sunday.

Only Light Snow Threats Either Side of Weekend Cold

There will be a chance for light snow or flurries, both as the slab of arctic air moves in Thursday night and Friday morning and as it begins to be replaced by seasonably warm air (Sunday night? Monday?). These systems won't be nearly as strong as tonight's system, so there will only be the chance for a light accumulation, similar to what we've seen earlier this week, and not everyone will get one.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Winter Storm Warning Tues PM and Tues Night

Tuesday 12/9/2025: Maybe some fog or sunny breaks early in the morning, then thickening clouds with a mixture of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain developing by mid-afternoon and continuing until dark. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: light SW during the morning, SE 8-15 MPH during the middle and late afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10% during the morning, 90% during the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Steady mixed wet snow and sleet turning to a drier snow by mid-evening, but tapering to occasional light snow or flurries after midnight. Turning windy with some blowing snow in open areas. Between 2 and 5 inches of new snowfall are likely between the middle of Tuesday afternoon and midnight Tuesday night. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: becoming N-NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts late evening through early morning. Wind chill: between -10 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 70% evening, 30% after midnight.

Wednesday 12/10/2025: Cloudy, windy through the morning, and turning colder. Perhaps some flurries plus blowing snow in open areas producing low visibility. Little or no new accumulation expected. Temperatures falling to near 10 by mid-morning, then rebounding to between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts through midday, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -15 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and a bit colder. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: light NW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 12/11/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, light winds, and continued cold. Perhaps a flurry. High: between 12 and 17. Winds: light NW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Partly clear, calm, and cold by midnight, but cloudy with fog or flurries possible during the early morning hours. Low: between 0 and +5 early, rising into the teens towards morning. Winds: light SE, becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts near morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 12/12/2025: Any lingering snow tapers off during the early morning with a small chance for between a dusting and an inch. Then, partial clearing, windy, and much colder. Low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. Early morning temperatures in the teens, falling into the plus single digits during the middle of the day. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH during the morning, 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -25 and -5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly clear, a bit of a biting breeze, and much colder. Low: between -15 and -5. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Spotty wind chill: between -30 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/13/2025: Ineffective sunshine, light winds, and likely the coldest day of the season thus far. High: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -25 and -5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Continued very cold on Sunday (lows in the minus teens, highs near zero), then a milder trend early next week??? Another uncertain chance for Sunday night or Monday snow???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 5 Thursday night, 4 Friday, 5 Friday night through Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 21°F (set at midnight Monday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 16°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Tuesday): 16°F; High Today (through 6 AM): 25°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 4 AM Tuesday): 0.07 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Tuesday): 1.2 inches snow/0.05 inch liquid (total since early Monday: 2.0 inches of snow, 0.08 inch liquid)

Next Update: Wednesday, December 10, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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