Wednesday, December 10, 2025  6:50 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Forecast, Snow, Shovel, Repeat To Take a Break Second Half of Week

Heaviest Snow in Central Minnesota to Our North

The latest storm to hit parts of Minnesota had the warp engines in good shape as it raced from northern British Columbia midday yesterday into central Minnesota by midnight last night (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop). The speed of the storm was still the primary forecast issue, since the snow broke out in central Minnesota around noon, about 2-3 hours earlier than expected (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) and continued heavily until around 6-7 PM. The moisture was relatively limited and concentrated ahead of the storm, so the precipitation tapered off to light freezing rain and freezing drizzle during much of the evening hours. There was more snow along the northern cold front (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), but that band is narrow, so there will likely be only another dusting to an inch or two when it comes through.

Most main roads along the path of the snow band are at least partially snow or ice covered (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports for the latest conditions), but at least the sequence of snow, followed by freezing rain or drizzle, has reduced the icing issue. Since the additional early morning snow won't be that much, expect road crews to do a fairly good job removing the snow. Still, the strong winds due at the back of the system will produce some low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas, especially where the snowfall totals are the highest. The heaviest snow reports as of evening were from the Grand Forks and Thief River Falls areas (8 inches), Motley and Willow River (7 inches), with generally 4-6 inches from Fargo through St. Cloud to the northern half of the Twin Cities. The south side of St. Cloud and St. Stephen had 4.5 inches as of 11 PM with 4.1 inches in Albany. These areas can also expect wind gusts of 35-40 MPH, which could produce some low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas.

I measured 5.6 inches of new snow at St. Cloud State University at 6 AM. The snow depth is now an average of 11 inches.

Strong Winds to Kick In Late Night and Early Morning

The low pressure system is fairly strong, judging by the number of isobars (brown lines noting the pressure every 0.12 inches or 4 millibars on the NWS WPC Continental US 24-hour surface loop) around the low center. However, those isobars are closest together on the western and northwestern flank of the low, so we haven't seen the strong winds yet. Those winds are expected to gust to speed of 55-60 MPH from west central to south central Minnesota, so the National Weather Service has a high wind warning out until the morning rush hour. There will be a chance of a little light snow in these areas, so there will be the chance for areas of near zero visibility in blowing snow early this morning.

Quieter Rest of the Week, But Much Colder Friday Midday Through Sunday

During the second half of this week, the constant parade of storms will ease up. The main weather-related issue will be the first significant arctic outbreak of the winter as a piece of the high parked over the Yukon and Nunavut (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will push into Minnesota by Sunday. This still will be a glancing blow of the arctic cold core, since we will only catch the southernmost piece of the cold air (see blue colors advance between now and the weekend on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map; use right arrow to advance). That air will catch longer daylight hours as it moves southeastward, but the now deep snow cover over central and southern Minnesota means that a lot of the sun's warmth will get reflected back to space by the bright white snow pack, so warming will be limited. At this point, I see a good shot for Saturday's temperatures to stay below zero all day and get close to a record cold high (-3, set in 1985). The low temperature early Sunday could get into the -20's. And, the wind chill on the way down will get into the serious mid-minus 20's Friday afternoon and could be as cold as -30 early Saturday. That means it's time to make sure your cold weather supply kit is in your car (it should already be there in case you get into an accident on slippery roads today). You can stay up to date on the latest temperatures, winds, and wind chills using the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up).

There will be a chance for a few flurries or a little light snow both Thursday evening and again Friday morning on the leading edge of the colder air. The best chance for an inch or two of light snow will be across west central and south central Minnesota (a set time to the 18 UTC Friday tab, noon CST Friday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance), but I expect little more than flurries here. Given the current snow depth, any additional snow will produce low visibility problems as winds pick up on Friday.

The coldest of the cold air will linger through the weekend, but the steering winds will become more west-to-east by the end of the weekend, so temperatures should begin rising as early as Sunday night with highs back in the teens on Monday and in the 20's or possibly 30's, if we don't get caught in fog, by next Tuesday.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 12/10/2025: Cloudy, windy through the morning, and turning colder. Perhaps some flurries plus blowing snow in open areas producing low visibility. Between a dusting and an additional inch is possible from 6 AM on. Temperatures falling to near 10 by mid-morning, then rebounding to between 18 and 23. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts through midday, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -15 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and a bit colder. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: light NW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 12/11/2025: Some morning sun, but thickening midday and afternoon clouds, light winds, and continued cold. Perhaps a late day flurry. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: light during the morning, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Perhaps an early evening flurry, then partly clear, calm, and cold by midnight. More late night clouds with perhaps a flurry. Low: between 0 and +5 early, rising into the teens towards morning. Winds: light SE, becoming NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 12/12/2025: Any lingering snow tapers off during the early morning with a small chance for between a dusting and an inch. Then, partial clearing, windy, and much colder. Low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. Early morning temperatures in the teens, falling into the plus single digits during the middle of the day, then dropping to near zero by sunset. Winds: NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH by midday and continuing in the afternoon. Wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly clear, still windy through the evening, and much colder. Low: between -12 and -5. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -30 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/13/2025: Ineffective sunshine, lighter winds, and likely the coldest day of the season thus far. High: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -30 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly clear, calm, and likely the coldest night of the season so far. Low: between -25 and -15. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, light late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday 12/14/2025: Sunshine through afternoon high clouds, a light biting afternoon breeze, and still quite cold. High: between -3 and +3. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -25 and -5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Warming up Sunday night into Monday with temperatures at least in the teens??? Even milder Tuesday and Wednesday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 5 Thursday night through Saturday, 4 Saturday night, 5 Sunday, 3 Monday and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 26°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Wednesday): 20°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 6 AM Wednesday): 0.51 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Wednesday): 5.6 inches snow/0.46 inch melted

Next Update: Thursday, December 11, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Earth Sciences Department home page.