Wednesday, November 5, 2025  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Trend to Much Colder By Weekend

Where's My Allergy Relief?

Despite 5 October lows in the 20's in St. Cloud and a low of at least 28 degrees in all of Minnesota (select first freeze of 28 degrees on the first freeze map from Midwest Regional Climatic Center), I am still seeing about half of the ragweed surviving during my volunteer dog walking shifts. So, my sinuses wish to sue the local thermometers, since the ragweed still isn't dead in spots. So, I need more hours with the temperatures in the middle 20's or colder. Wind chill doesn't work.

Probably Weekend Into Monday

Despite yesterday's high in the 60's (set time to 19Z-22Z, 1-4 PM, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), we are two days away from a prolonged cold period that will last Friday through Monday. After having highs in the 50's today and tomorrow, Friday will have highs only in the lower 40's, then Saturday through Monday highs should be only in the 30's. It will also be breezy, so daytime wind chills will be in the 20's and overnight wind chills could be in the teens over the weekend. If the winds die down and we get partial clearing overnight, a low in the teens will be possible. So, that should finally ease my sinuses.

Good Chance to See Some Snow Flakes At Times Friday Through Sunday, But Not Much Chance for Accumulation

I had mentioned the uncertainty about a possible measurable snowfall sometime during that period. The Saturday time period was the most uncertain for that possibility, but the latest information shows that the best chance for a period snow flakes falling will be somewhere between the Minnesota River Valley and the Minnesota-Iowa border (see Day 4 of the NWS WPC winter weather outlook). Northern Minnesota will have scattered snow showers from Friday through Sunday morning (see Days 2-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), so there is also a chance for a light accumulation. Still, this system will be moisture-starved, so the potential accumulation will be small in Minnesota.

In central Minnesota, the only period I have with a 1 in 3 chance for snow when it will be cold enough to accumulate will be Saturday night into Sunday morning. And, I only have a slight chance for a dusting. We will have a shot of seeing snow flakes at times between Friday and Sunday with Friday and Sunday mornings with the best chance. However, only Sunday morning will be cold enough for a small chance for an accumulation.

Moderation of Weekend Cold Possible Tuesday, Likely Thursday On

This turn of the steering winds to a northwest-to-southeast flow is already happening in north central Canada (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). That will allow the colder air to move in. However, high pressure is expected to push into the central US by early next week. There is still a bit of a back-and-forth forecast of temperatures, but the temperatures look milder (at least back to seasonable levels) on Tuesday with a more prolonged warm-up possible late next work week.

You can find the October 2025 St. Cloud weather summary, noting our continued streak of warmer than average months, and also our continued late summer-fall dry spell.

Next forecast: Friday, November 7 (no forecast Thursday)

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 11/5/2025: Mostly sunny, windy, and cooler. Elevated fire danger. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear evening, becoming mostly cloudy late at night, light winds, and cool. Low: between 26 and 33. Winds: light evening, SE 5-10 MPH after midnight. Late night wind chill: between 25 and 35. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Thursday 11/6/2025: Mostly cloudy, windy, and seasonably mild. Elevated fire danger. A slight chance for a rain shower. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH with gusts of 35-40 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy, windy, and continued cool. A slight chance for a rain shower perhaps mixed with a few snow flakes. Low: between 37 and 42. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH during the early morning hours. Wind chill: between 24 and 34. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Friday 11/7/2025: Cloudy, windy, and much cooler. Scattered morning rain showers with perhaps a stray snow flake, then becoming sunny by afternoon. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late morning. Morning wind chill: between 28 and 35. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Cloudy with diminishing wind and turning colder. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, N 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between 18 and 23. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday 11/8/2025: Cloudy during the morning, partly sunny during the afternoon, windy, and even colder. A slight chance of light rain or snow showers. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, windy, and colder. Perhaps a few stray snow flakes. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: between 10 and 15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 11/9/2025: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries during the morning, partly sunny during the afternoon, still windy, and cold. A slight chance for a brief dusting of snow. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Still quite cold Monday (highs in the 30's, lows in the teens or 20's)??? Milder Tuesday and Thursday and Friday??? Still only small precipitation chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night, 3 Saturday, 2 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Monday, 2 Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 62°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 46°F; Top Wind Gust Last 24 Hours (through 2 AM Wednesday): 34 MPH at 12:42 AM
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None; Coldest Wind Chill Last 24 Hours (through 2 AM Wednesday): 34°F at 11 PM Monday

Next Update: Friday, November 7, 2025 6 AM (no forecast Thursday)

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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