Monday, December 15, 2025  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Major Mid-Week Wind Storm Will Be the Only Weather-Related Issue

Our early week mild period will peak today through tomorrow night. The southeast winds began blowing during the early morning hours (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), so temperatures have headed upwards since the evening (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). That will continue today as highs will climb above freezing for the first time since the afternoon of November 25 (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), the first of the pair of Thanksgiving week storms, and possibly reach 40 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures will dip back to the teens or even plus single digits tonight, but we should see another high in the middle or perhaps upper 30's tomorrow. Temperatures are likely to remain at or above freezing tomorrow night as well as a strong low pressure system approaching.

The main weather system of this work week is in the northeast Pacific Ocean this morning (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) and will head either through southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario or northern Minnesota on Thursday. This system will mainly produce precipitation on its northern flank (see Days 2-5 on the NWS WPC quantative precipitation forecast) and there is the possibility of milder air mixing into the system at the start, so northern Minnesota has chances for both accumulating snow (set tab to 00 UTC Fri, 6 PM CST Thurs, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance and try both snow and freezing rain precipitation type). The precipitation chance in central Minnesota looks to be small with a chance of wet snow or rain on Wednesday night and a chance for some snow showers on Thursday with little accumulation likely with the current storm track.

However, this low is expected to be quite strong, so there will be wind gusts of 35-40 MPH as the storm approaches on Wednesday and 40-50 MPH as the storm departs on Thursday. The upcoming period of above freezing temperatures will mean that the snow pack will have a crust on it, since there will be melting, then refreezing. Only the areas receiving significant snow will have blowing and drifting snow issues. However, the strong winds will be enough to shove vehicles around. That problem will be more serious since Wednesday night temperatures will likely be above freezing, followed by temperatures falling into the 20's by midday Thursday, so untreated surfaces could be slippery.

Beyond Thursday, we will have the strong west-to-east flow with rapidly moving weather systems, mostly moving along or to the north of the Canadian border. That will keep the bulk of the precipitation chances along or north of the Canadian border (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC quantative precipitation forecast). What this pattern will mean is quick temperature changes that will be hard to predict beyond 3 or 4 days. We will be colder Friday (lows below zero, highs in the teens), but could see milder temperatures Saturday. Beyond then, there could be another cold surge on Sunday, but that is beyond the period of even decent forecast confidence.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 12/16/2025: Some early fog possible, then sunshine through high clouds, windy, and much milder. High: between 36 and 43. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH during the morning through early afternoon, becoming W 10-25 MPH by late afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Some early evening clouds and windy, then clearing with winds diminishing during the early morning hours. Low: between 8 and 14. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH with higher gusts through midnight, then NW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 12/17/2025: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds with a slight chance for a sprinkle, turning windy again and still mild. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: S 5-15 MPH during the morning, SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and windy with a chance for snow or rain showers. A coating of snow or slush is possible by morning. Still mild. Low: between 32 and 35. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH evening, becoming W during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 40%.

Thursday 12/18/2025: Mostly cloudy, blustery, and turning colder. A chance for occasional flurries. Icy spots on untreated roads. Sunrise temperatures near freezing, but temperatures falling into the 20's by midday and the teens by the afternoon. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH during the morning, NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH during the afternoon.Wind chill: between -15 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Clearing, diminishing wind late at night, and colder, but not as extreme as during the past weekend. Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts evening, NW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Evening wind chill: between -27 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday 12/19/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and cold. A chance for occasional light snow or flurries by late in the day. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Morning wind chill: between -10 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance for evening flurries, then partial clearing late at night. Milder. Low: between 0 and +10 evening, rising into the teens during the early morning hours. Winds: S 5 MPH evening, NW 8-15 MPH during the early morning hours. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 12/20/2025: Partly clear, blustery, and colder. High: between 22 and 27, falling into the teens during the afternoon. Winds: WNW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: between -15 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Still cold Sunday (lows sub-zero, highs in the plus single digits)???? Temperature roller coaster into next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Tuesday through Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night, 3 Friday, 2 Friday night and Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 21°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 4°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, December 17, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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