Friday, November 7, 2025  2:05 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Thanksgiving Temperatures During Early November This Weekend Through Monday

First True Cold Air Now Moving into Manitoba

While we are a lot colder than that early October 90-degree weather, we still haven't seen a really cold blast so far this cold season. Even on the cooler days of late October, high temperatures have climbed at least into the upper half of the 30's in St. Cloud (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). We have yet to see a low temperature in the teens (last one April 8). Highs in the lower 30's and lows in the teens would be typical Thanksgiving readings.

One reason is that it has been hard to generate cold. Arctic Ocean ice cover was among the 10 lowest during the usual time of minimum ice cover in September and snow and ice have been slow to build across northern Canada (although most of Alaska is now covered) so far this cold season. Snow and ice cover are needed to generate the truly cold air seen in winter since the snow and ice cover reflects nearly all of the little bit of solar energy back to space.

However, the next shot of cold air that has built up in northern Manitoba and Nunavut is the coldest seen so far this season. The low temperatures in the single digits (see yesterday's NWS WPC North America zoom-in map from 6 AM) are finally cold enough to be show with the same color as middle clouds off the Florida coast (see College of DuPage North America infrared satellite loop). That means the ground temperatures in Nunavut are as cold as those middle clouds temperatures. Any truly cold air should be to do that. That cold air is headed for Minnesota by tomorrow. It will take another day, since cold air is being delayed a bit by the upper-air low that moved to the North Dakota-Manitoba-Minnesota border overnight (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), but the northwest-to-southeast flow pattern will resume over southern Manitoba into Minnesota after the low goes by this morning. Today will be much colder than yesterday, but temperatures will manage to be in the 40's as the upper air low pushes across northern Minnesota. There have been some radar echoes from the cold front that went through Minnesota yesterday (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but only a few scattered cold rain showers so far in north central and northeastern Minnesota (set time to 00Z-current, 6 PM Thursday and later, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Highs in the 30's, Lows in 20's (Perhaps Teens) With Biting Winds Tonight Through Monday

Tomorrow through Monday, we will see highs only in the 30's, perhaps only the middle 30's on Sunday, and most lows in the 20's, since we will have some lingering clouds all but Sunday night, and a persistent northwest wind. Only Sunday night has a shot for a low in the teens. With the wind blowing, it will be tougher than we're used to late night and early morning whether you are deer hunting, or football tailgating. Daytime wind chills will be in the 20's to lower 30's at best and overnight wind chills will be in the teens (see NWS hourly Minnesota weather round-up for latest temperatures, wind gusts, and wind chill). To our north, single digit low temperatures will be possible tomorrow and Sunday nights, depending on whether the winds calm down.

Good Chance to See Snow Flakes; Accumulation Tough to Come By Anywhere in Minnesota

There has been a bit more hype than I would like to see about the threat of seeing snowfall. While the upper air low will sail by today, favoring some light precipitation, and a wave will develop along the new cold front tomorrow, with the best chance of precipitation in southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, and Iowa, the chances for accumulating snow aren't that good anywhere in Minnesota. Note that only southern Minnesota tomorrow into tomorrow night (Day 2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) has a good shot at measurable precipitation with the best chance in Iowa. Otherwise, I can't see better than a 1 in 3 shot at measurable precipitation. While the air temperatures aloft will be cold enough to produce some snow flakes mixed in with the rain showers during the days today in northern Minnesota and tomorrow in southern Minnesota, ground temperatures are likely to be in the middle 30's during the days. For a decent chance for accumulating snow, the precipitation will have to fall late at night or early in the morning when temperatures are likely to be around freezing. The best chance for a dusting to a slushy inch will be in northeastern Minnesota today. Otherwise, the chances for any accumulation aren't great, except in southern Minnesota. There is enough uncertainty in tomorrow's system to hold out the chance for a dusting. Yes, there will be colder temperatures than that during the overnights through the weekend in central and northern Minnesota, but there will be a much smaller chance for measurable precipitation when it is that cold.

There is also a chance for a dusting to a slushy inch tomorrow and Sunday along the south shore of Lake Superior as those areas get a shot of lake-effect precipitation as the newly cold air moves over the fairly warm lakes.

So, expect a good chance of seeing some snow flakes in the air, but little chance for any accumulating snow. Note on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance that only the tip of the Arrowhead has a small chance for seeing an inch ending at 6 PM tonight (00 UTC Saturday) and southern Minnesota has an even smaller chance in the 24 hours ending at 6 AM Sunday (12 UTC) Any area that has a cold, heavier snow shower will only see a dusting of snow at most.

This chilly air isn't that broad or deep (note my earlier discussion about the slow development of Arctic ice and snow), so temperatures will moderate back to early November norms (highs back in the 40's) by Tuesday. Wednesday will likely be a similar day, but we could easily see highs in the 50's Thursday and Friday. The chance for important precipitation will remain small through at least next Friday.

There might be some potential for significant rainfall by early the following week. A strong low pressure system is expected to push into the West by the weekend. There is a chance that this system produces a major Plains storm early next week, but the computer scenarios wildly differ (one trying to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into the Great Lakes, the other progressing the western system into the central Plains). At Day 10 into the forecast, I don't have much confidence in the scenario.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 11/7/2025: Cloudy, windy, and much cooler. Scattered morning rain showers with perhaps a stray snow flake, then perhaps some sunny periods during the afternoon. Most snow flakes should melt on contact with the ground. High: between 41 and 46. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late morning. Morning wind chill: between 28 and 35. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with diminishing wind and turning colder. A chance for a late night stray snow flake. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, N 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between 18 and 23. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 11/8/2025: Mostly cloudy all day with occasional light snow or flurries, mainly during the morning, then windy during the afternoon, and even colder. A small chance for a brief morning dusting. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: N 5-15 MPH during the morning, NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Wind chill: between 23 and 34. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy and windy with Thanksgiving-like temperatures. A slight chance for a stray snow flake with little if any accumulation. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: between 10 and 15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 11/9/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, still windy with Thanksgiving-like temperatures. Perhaps a stray flurry or two. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: teens during the morning, 20's midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, not as windy, but still quite cold. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, 5 MPH after midnight. Late night wind chill: in the teens. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 11/10/2025: More sunshine with some high clouds, less windy, and not quite as cold. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Early wind chill: in the teens. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Monday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and not quite as cold, but still a cold breeze. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: SW 5 MPH evening, S 8-15 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between 18 and 25. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday 11/11/2025: Early November-like or even late October-like temperatures. Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, and milder. High: between 46 and 52. Winds: becoming NW, and increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during the middle of the day, then NW 10-20 MPH late in the day. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Seasonably cool (highs in the 40's) Wednesday?? Warmer (50's) Thursday and Friday??? Still only small precipitation chances through Saturday??? Uncertain late in weekend???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Friday through Sunday, 6 Sunday night and Monday, 4 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 54°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 39°F; Top Wind Gust Last 24 Hours (through 2 AM Friday): 41 MPH at 12:37 PM
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; Coldest Wind Chill Last 24 Hours (through 2 AM Wednesday): 37°F at midnight Thursday night

Next Update: Monday, November 10, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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