Weather

St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Friday, May 26, 2017 2:20 AM

Bob Weisman
Meteorology Professor
Saint Cloud State University
Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department

(forecast below this discussion)

Memorial Day Weekend Warmth Front-Loaded

While this weekend weatherwise will be a tremendous improvement over last weekend, I'm afraid that earlier forecasts through the weekend may have oversold how pleasant this weekend will be. We do have a chance for highs in the 70's, but that will be limited to today and tomorrow. Cooler air will move in for Sunday and Monday, so highs will stay in the 60's. And, while I don't see any repeat of the cool wash-out we had last Saturday, we will have a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms each day, with the better chances today and Sunday.

Lingering Clouds, Humid, and Perhaps More Showers Today

Sunshine was dimmed by some middle and high clouds yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). This kept temperatures from climbing out of the 60's (see 3-day loop of high temperatures from NWS/University at Albany). The clouds were being produced ahead of a weak warm front pushing through the Dakotas. Overnight, some spotty rain showers pushed from western Minnesota across parts of central and northern Minnesota (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). These showers produced a brief period of late evening rainfall at the St. Cloud Airport (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). In the wake of these showers, temperatures are quite mild in the 50's (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart). Also, the dew point has climbed to noticeably uncomfortable levels, the middle to upper 50's (see UCAR hourly dew point map) Those showers have pushed eastward, but the main storm in the Canadian Prairie Provinces will drag its cold front through Minnesota by late afternoon. There are currently spotty showers in South Dakota and Nebraska which may not get to St. Cloud this morning. However, as the humid air continues to lift over the air at the ground, more showers and thunderstorms could develop this morning through early afternoon. This system does not have the moisture that last weekend's storm did, so I don't expect a huge amount of rain. We should clear out late in the afternoon and given the relatively warm air around, temperatures will climb into the 70's by late afternoon.

Fewer Showers and 70's Saturday

Slightly drier air will push into Minnesota overnight. Temperatures will fall back to near 50 under partly sunny skies. Tomorrow, we will still be in the warm air, so temperatures should break into the 70's. Still, a reinforcing cold front is due to pass in the early evening, so there will be a chance for scattered showers in the afternoon. There will be a lot of clouds around, but the chances for showers will be a bit less than this morning through early afternoon.

Cool Down with Afternoon Showers Sunday and Monday

The main upper-air low in southern Canada will move southeastward over Minnesota for Sunday and Monday. This means cooler temperatures with highs only in the 60's. This also means a lot of clouds after perhaps a sunny start and occasional brief showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. It won't be a continuous rain, but if you are outdoors, you should have a plan for an occasional rainy period. During the showers, temperatures will fall back to the upper 50's to near 60, so it will feel quite chilly.

The chances for afternoon showers aren't quite as great on Memorial Day as they are for Sunday, but expect a lot of clouds around and temperatures even a shade cooler with highs struggling to get to 65.

The upper-air low is expected to move eastward by Tuesday (of course), so we could return to near 70 with highs in the 70's by Wednesday. However, the long range forecasts show another cooling trend possible during the second half of next week.

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Eat Papers and the Rug While I'm Forecasting"

Friday 5/26/2017: Mixed clouds with some sunny breaks, and a good chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Noticeably humid. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50% through 3 PM, 20% after 3 PM

Friday Night: Partly clear, drier, and not quite as mild. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 5/27/2017: Morning sun, lots of afternoon clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH with gusty winds in storms. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Still mild. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Nudge Me in the Leg for More Petting and Less Forecasting"

Sunday 5/28/2017: A sunny start, then lots of clouds with a better chance of occasional afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Cooler. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain or drizzle. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 5/29/2017: Mixed clouds and sun with still a chance of scattered showers mainly in the afternoon. Breezy, and cooler. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.


Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Have Great Insight on That Storm Due 4 Days from Now"

Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy and cooler. A slight chance of a shower. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Tuesday 5/30/2017: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, not quite as cool, and drier. High: between 66 and 72. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Highs in the 70's Wednesday with a chance of late day storms??? Not as warm Thursday?????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday through Saturday, 6 Saturday night, 5 Sunday and Sunday night, 4 Monday, 3 Monday night, 2 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 69°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM): 46°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): TBA

May 26 Historical Data High Low
Average Temperatures 72°F 47°F
Record Temperatures 93°F (1914) 76°F (1898)
48°F (1932) 30°F (1992)

Next Update: Tuesday, May 30, 2017 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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