St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast
Thursday, March 30, 2017 3:20 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Saint Cloud State University
Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department
(forecast below this discussion)Spring Returns After One Day Interlude
Brushed by Clouds Through the Morning
The large storm to our south did move northeastward yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), filling in the high and middle clouds and bringing rain showers as far north as the Twin Cities early this morning (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). Temperatures didn't get quite as warm yesterday due to the thickening clouds (see 5-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) and were also warmer in northern Minnesota, where there was more sun, than southern Minnesota (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany).
Despite the impressive looking counterclockwise circulation, the big storm is a bit weaker than it was at this time yesterday and will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward today. So, we have the thick clouds this morning, but eventually, the low level dry air from the high in central Canada (see NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) will begin to erode the clouds this afternoon. So, highs will climb back into the middle 50's this afternoon.
Drying Out for Friday and Saturday
Then, we will resume the pleasant spring weather tomorrow and Saturday. Highs will return to near or above 60 with lows in the 20's to near 30.
Another Fringe Festival on Sunday and Sunday Night?
The next strong storm system that pushed into Nevada and Idaho overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will continue into the Plains states through the end of the week. By Sunday, this system will be moving northeastward, so we will again be on the northern fringe of the possible precipitation. Yes, I've noticed the severe back-and-forth in my Sunday forecast: yesterday, I had sunny with a shot at 70 and today, I have clouds and sprinkles with highs in the 50's, so the storm track has been jumping around a lot. However, I think there were hints the storm would come further north in yesterday's forecast and I ignored them. So, I'm putting us in the clouds for Sunday with some sprinkles and the chance for some light steady rain on Sunday night into Monday.
While we've been basking in the nice part of the weather pattern, a strong storm moved from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains overnight triggering a large outbreak of thunderstorms, some of them in Texas producing severe weather, from Nebraska to Texas yesterday. In the early morning hours, storms have produced wind gusts over 80 MPH in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. The rain is no closer to us than eastern Nebraska and Iowa but we have seen the high clouds try to move into Minnesota overnight. We will remain on the fringe of the storm track into the middle of next week. There may be a better chance for some mid-week precipitation, but it's too early to be sure.
March Making One Last Push for Above Average
The March average St. Cloud temperature continues to climb, reaching 29.8 degrees through yesterday. That's 0.6 degrees above average, so we still could end up less than 1.5 degrees warmer than average. If we did, it would be the first month since last summer to come this close to average temperatures. The most rain I expect today and tomorrow is an early morning sprinkle, so we will remain near 0.67 inches in March, now -0.75 inch from normal. While there has been above average precipitation beginning just to our south and east, central and northern Minnesota has dodged most of the March precipitation with the least falling over the Lake Traverse area..
Thursday 3/30/2017: Morning clouds and spotty drizzle, maybe some afternoon sunny breaks, and a shade cooler. High: between 52 and 56. Winds: ENE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Thursday Night: Cloudy evening, some clearing late and a touch cooler. Low: between 24 and 28. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Friday 3/31/2017: Sunshine through high clouds, and mild again. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Want Petting with One Hand, While I'm Typing the Forecast"
Friday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and cool. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: E 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Saturday 4/1/2017: Mixed clouds and sun and warmer. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Saturday Night: Clear evening, clouding up late. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: E 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Sunday 4/2/2017: Mostly cloudy with a chance of sprinkles or light rain. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Forecast That Most Precipitation Will Be in the Form of Lettuce"
Sunday Night: Cloudy with periods of rain. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: SE 5 MPH, becoming W 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Monday 4/3/2017: Morning clouds, afternoon sun, and not as chilly. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Extended: A chance for more precipitation Tuesday??
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 4 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Sunday night and Monday.
Yesterday's High: 52°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 37°F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Thursday): None
|March 30 Historical Data||High||Low|
|Record Temperatures||79°F (1968)||50°F (1967)|
|13°F (1923,1969)||-7°F (1969)|
Next Update: Friday, March 31, 2017 8:00 AM (or as needed)
- Full UCAR surface chart menu
- NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
- NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- MesoWest: Last 48 hours of St. Cloud Observations
- Full NWS Aviation Center Zoom-In Map
- Full College of DuPage surface map menu (click on surface map and area)
- NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
- NWS WPC surface map menu
- Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
- NWS WPC Short-Range forecast map
- NWS WPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
- NWS WPC three-day steering wind forecast
- US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
- NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses
- College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
- Colorado State RAMDIS Menu
- NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
- NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
- NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropical Atlantic)
- University of Wisconsin-Madison SSEC US Real-Time Satellite Imagery
- NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
- NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
- NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
- NWS Chanhassen radar loop and derived products (from College of DuPage)
- NWS National Radar Loop
- College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu (links to velocity and dual polarization data)
- Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
- Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
- US Watch/Warning Map from National Weather Service
- NWS Twin Cities Regional watch warning map
- Today's NWS Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
- Active Tropical Cyclones in eastern Pacific and Atlantic from NWS National Hurricane Center
- Potential Flooding Areas from the NWS Weather Prediction Center
- Air Quality Index from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
- NWS Weather Safety Page
- CDC Natural Disaster and Severe Weather Safety
- Hot Weather Safety from the National Weather Service
- Severe Weather Safety from the National Weather Service
- NWS Sun/Ultraviolet Safety
- NWS Winter Storm Safety
- NWS Cold Weather Safety
- Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
- NWS Hurricane Safety Page
- NWS National Hurricane Center overview of storm surge (coastal flooding)
- Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
- Minnesota DNR Wildfire danger
- US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS
Ground and Air Travel
- Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
- St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
- Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
- Minnesota State Climatology Office create your own precipitation table
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
- This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
- Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
- National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site
- Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
- Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
- NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast
- Sunrise/Sunset Tables from US Naval Observatory
- St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
- National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
- Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
- DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
- NWS Create Your Own Rainfall Map
- More Drought Links (from the State Climatology Office, Minnesota DNR)
- Minnesota Major City Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
- DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
- Minnesota Pollution Control Agencu lawn watering tips
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.