Friday, December 26, 2025  2:15 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Gloomy Warmth Continues Through Saturday Night, Then Much Colder by Midday Sunday

Some Spotty Ice, Especially to Our North This Morning

The fog eased after yesterday morning, but the persistent clouds hung around (see College of DuPage shortwave infrared satellite loop) all day. The weak storm system moved from Washington state into Minnesota (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), producing a fair amount of radar echoes (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but only light precipitation at the ground (see only scattered reports during the evening hours, between 00Z and 06Z, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). The amount of air colder than freezing was limited, so there were rain showers in southern Minnesota, but mostly freezing rain or freezing drizzle in northern Minnesota. The MnDOT Minnesota road reports show patches of ice on main roads from Hwy. 2 northward, so untreated surfaces could be slippery.

Some Dense Fog to Our South to Merely Give Way to Clouds During the Day

To the west of the departing system, there is a wind shift from light south winds in central Minnesota to light northwest winds in the Dakotas (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Drier air is located in parts of the central and western Dakotas (dew points in the 20's, rather than in the 30's in Minnesota; see UCAR hourly dew point chart). Unfortunately, we will have the low clouds hanging around with some patches of dense fog until that wind shift works into Minnesota this morning. Spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle is possible during the late night and first part of the morning.

So, the winter weather advisory continues until 6 AM in central Minnesota, until 9 AM in north central Minnesota, and until noon in the Arrowhead. And, the dense fog advisory continues in west central, southwestern, and south central Minnesota through the morning commute, for those of you who are commuting.

Continued Mild With More Fog Tonight, Possibly 40 Tomorrow

The mild and murky weather will continue through Saturday night. We might see a few breaks of sun this afternoon if some of the drier air from the Dakotas works into Minnesota. Temperatures will edge back into the middle 30's. Dense fog could again form this evening, but a more persistent south wind should develop late tonight. Since the fog's extent ranges from southern Minnesota and South Dakota to northeast Kansas (see dark gray areas of a dense fog advisory on the NWS National Watch-Warning map), we could have fog persist for much of the night.

Saturday is likely to be the mildest day of the period with a shot at some 40 degree highs, thanks to a stronger south wind flow. Still, I think the chances for sunshine are low. Mild temperatures will continue for most of Saturday night, as temperatures should remain above freezing past midnight.

Blustery and Much Colder Midday Sunday Through Monday...

Then, a slab of the mother lode of the cold air (producing records in the Yukon and extremes in Alaska) extending from northern and central Alaska through the Yukon and Nunavut (see dark blue area moving from northwestern Canada to the northern Dakotas, while becoming lighter blue as it arrives in Minnesota, as you use the right arrow on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb potential temperature map to get later in the forecast) will push into the Northern Plains. The main effects will be much colder air arriving on very strong northwest winds, which could gust to 40-60 MPH from midday Sunday through Sunday evening and will persist at 10-20 MPH through Monday. The colder air will drop temperatures from near freezing early Sunday morning to the teens by midday. The combination of clouds and wind will limit the fall to between 0 and +5 by Monday morning, but produce wind chills in the minus teens and some -20's late Sunday night and early Monday.

A Little Snow Possible Sunday

The system that brings in the colder air will again have little moisture associated with it, so there will only be a small chance of a rain shower in central and southern Minnesota Saturday night, but there could be spotty freezing rain in northern Minnesota. On Sunday, there will be a chance for occasional light snow or flurries as the colder air moves in, but there won't be much moisture available, so accumulations will be in the dusting to 2 inch range at most.

Beyond Monday, we should see temperatures return to more seasonable levels by Tuesday. Then, even the temperature prediction will be difficult as we remain near the area between the southern edge of January-like cold and the much milder air to our south. The latest forecasts have another cold dip for the second half of next week, but I don't trust the ability of the computer forecasts to pick out the temperatures that far in advance. Any precipitation threat is uncertain, but likely to be light.

Major Rain and Snow Potential in California Up Through Christmas

That West Coast storm is drifting northward (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), so the flooding threat will continue in southern California, but extend up the coast today (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) and another day of heavy snow in the eastern California mountains (more than a foot possible on the 00 UTC Sat tab of the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Also, the storm passing northern Minnesota tonight could spread measurable snow to western New York by tomorrow evening (set tab to 00 UTC Sat) and could mess up the major mid-Atlantic airports on Saturday (set tab to 00 UTC Sun).

Ground and Air Travel Links

• Minnesota
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Nebraska
• Iowa
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Air Travel Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday 12/26/2025: Morning areas of dense fog, then mostly cloudy and continued mild. High: between 33 and 36. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Some evening fog, then mostly cloudy with a bit of a breeze during the early morning hours, and mild. Low: between 28 and 32. Winds: light during the evening, SE 5-10 MPH during the early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Saturday 12/27/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and mild. High: between 37 and 42. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for rain showers, then blustery and colder during the early morning hours. Icy spots possible by morning. Temperatures in the 30's evening and early morning, falling back into the middle 20's towards morning. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH through midnight, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Sunday 12/28/2025: Mostly cloudy, blustery, and much colder. Occasional flurries or light snow possible. Between a dusting and 2 inches could accumulate. Low visibility in falling and blowing snow. Temperatures falling through the teens. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with gusts of 45-50 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and +7. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy through the evening, perhaps some partial clearing during the early morning hours, still windy, and even colder with serious wind chills. Low: between 0 and +5. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during evening, NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the early morning hours. Wind chill: between -27 and -10 during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/29/2025: Sunny during the morning, more clouds during the afternoon, not quite as windy, and still cold. High: between 3 and 8. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH. Wind chill: between -25 and -15 early, between -20 and -10 by late in the day. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, a bit of a breeze, and turning a bit milder. Temperatures holding between 5 and 10. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, SW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/30/2025: Cloudy with a chance of midday light snow or flurries. Not as cold. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 5 MPH during the morning, NW 8-15 MPH midday and afternoon. Wind chill: between -25 and -15 early, between -20 and -10 by late in the day. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Extended: Major temperature swings possible through New Year's week with uncertain light precipitation chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 5 Friday through Saturday, 3 Saturday night, 4 Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 35°F (set at midnight Thursday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 32°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 32°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): 0.01 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): TBA

Next Update: Saturday, December 27, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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