Monday, February 2, 2026  5:50 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

When The Coldest Air Has Been Used Up...

What February 2 Means in Minnesota

This morning is the 30th anniversary of Minnesota coldest temperature. On February 2, 1996, Tower hit -60 at just after 9 AM. In St. Cloud, we had the most recent low of -40 on record and never got warmer than -20, the coldest high in St. Cloud records. This came at the end of a series of cold. It was during a streak of 20 straight days with a below zero low. The last 6 of those days each had a low of -30 or colder.

That cold was produced by an arctic air mass that spent nearly all of January 1996 parked over the northern two-thirds of Alaska. Low temperatures were typically between -40 and -70 in Alaska before the air moved on to Minnesota. Similar to our air mass that bottomed out last weekend (3 straight lows in the -20's), the movement of the extreme cold air into Minnesota used up that air mass, so the rest of February had highs in the 30's and 40's above zero (from the NWS Twin Cities NOWdata, select St. Cloud area, daily data for a month, and February 1996).  

This cold snap, producing temperatures 35 to 43 degrees colder than average, is the main reason that St. Cloud's coldest average low temperatures are in early February, while the coldest average high temperatures are during the last couple of days of January.

Temperature Rebound Last Weekend...

However, this past weekend completed our rally from last weekend's cold to actually milder than average temperatures yesterday (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). The high of 27 degrees was our mildest since the first half of January (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). That's despite the continued northwest-to-southeast steering winds (see College of DuPage North America water vapor satellite loop), which helped to create the Carolinas snow storm over the weekend. But, there's no colder highs than the minus single digits in the Canadian Prairie Provinces (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

A Little Colder Today and Tomorrow, Then Milder Than Average Wed-Thurs

We will be a little bit colder today and tomorrow (highs in the teens). The next warmer wave will come Wednesday (highs back in the 20's) and Thursday (highs near or above freezing).

Colder, But Uncertain Friday and Saturday

Another cold front will be due on Thursday evening, but the computer forecasts disagree wildly about how cold it will be on Friday and Saturday. I will keep the highs a little cooler than average, but this will be another brief cold air shot. 

Yesterday's snowfall of between 1 and 3 inches will likely be the only possibility of even a light snow accumulation through next weekend. St. Cloud State University had 2.6 inches of new snow.  

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 2/2/2026: Sunny in the morning, mostly cloudy during the afternoon, light winds, and a shade colder. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Cloudy evening, then clearing by midnight, light winds, and colder.  Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: N 5 MPH evening, light late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 2/3/2026: Sunny during the morning, mixed sun and high clouds during the afternoon, and continued cold. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Tuesday Night: Clear, light winds, and not quite as cold. Low: between 0 and +5. Winds: light W. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday 2/4/2026: Mostly cloudy and back to seasonably cold temperatures. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and milder. Maybe a snow flurry. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: S 5-10 MPH evening, shifting to NW late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 2/5/2026: Cloudy, a bit of a breeze, and even milder. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Thursday Night: Cloudy, windy, and still mild. Perhaps a flurry. Low: between 18 and 25. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 2/6/2026: Sunny, breezy, and colder. Temperatures holding in the teens to lower 20's. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Average to milder than average temperatures through early next week?? Mostly dry???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Friday, 8 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 27°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Monday): 7°F

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Monday): 0.06 inch (0.14 inch since midnight Saturday night); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Monday): 0.08 inch melted/2.6 inches snow

Next Update: Monday, February 2, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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