Tuesday, November 25, 2025  4:05 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Between This Afternoon and Tomorrow Morning Most Difficult Travel Period of Thanksgiving Week

Last 24 Hours Favor Plowable Snow in Central Minnesota (A Bit Farther to the South Than Forecast Yesterday)

The southern stream storm pushed from the Desert Southwest to the Mid-Mississippi Valley (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). Only south central and southeastern Minnesota got some of the light rain from this system (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). However, this brought some modest amounts of low-level moisture to southern Minnesota. At the same time, the northern stream low pushed from off the Washington coast into Montana (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). Radar echoes have developed over the Dakotas, although it's taking a while to moisten up the low-level cold air, so there are only a few snow reports at the ground, mostly in western North Dakota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR surface map).

The last day of computer forecasts still have this Montana low pushing over Minnesota and into western Wisconsin by this evening. As the low gets into Minnesota, there will be more moisture available thanks to the southern stream storm going by overnight. So, there is still the potential of at least half an inch of total precipitation in the center of that 100-mile band. Air cold enough to support at least some wet snow mixing into the rain will get into Minnesota by midday, but ground air cold enough to allow accumulating snow (32-34 degrees) is still in western North Dakota, so it will take until middle afternoon for accumulation to occur in west central Minnesota and likely until sunset for the ground to get cold enough in central Minnesota. So, I still see the potential for between 3 and 6 inches of snowfall from this snow band.

The Arrowhead will have the potential for the greatest snow, since temperatures will allow the precipitation to turn to snow more quickly. And, the strongest rising air may be over that area for a prolonged period from midday today through early tomorrow morning. 6 inches or more are possible in the Arrowhead, especially where the northeast winds are lifted over the hills along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Twin Cities Now Getting into Heavy Snow, With Further Drift to South Possible

The forecast track of this heavy precipitation band is about 50 miles further to the south than it was yesterday. The current position has Ortonville, Wheaton, Alexandria, St. Cloud, Little Falls, Brainerd, Mora and Pine City in the midst of the snowband, but Willmar, Redwood Falls, and the northern half of the Twin Cities in the southern section of the heaviest precipitation. Since more track movement is possible in future forecasts, I will continue the southern track drift and put the most snow between Little Falls and the northern half of the Twin Cities with Brainerd, Park Rapids, and Duluth getting closer to the northern edge of the major accumulation. However, any further movement to the south could put even Little Falls and St. Cloud in lower accumulation.

On the other hand, the area between I-94 and the Minnesota River Valley is trending towards heavier snow. Places like Mankato and Marshall now could expect accumulating snowfall (between 1 and 3 inches) with higher amounts possible if the snow area drifts further to the south.

Details for St. Cloud

So, I expect light rain to develop by late this morning or midday, then a mixture of wet snow and rain during the afternoon. However, I don't expect any accumulation until after sundown. Between a dusting and an inch of slush could accumulate during the evening rush hour with another 2-5 inches possible by early tomorrow morning.

The winds will get blustery as soon as the low pushes to our south. There will be a switch to north winds by around sundown and the winds will becoming northwest by early evening. The winds will speed up to 20-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH or high (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for latest wind speeds, temperatures, precipitation, and wind chill). The wet snow will be difficult to blow and we won't have the 10 inch snow pack needed to blow the snow that has fallen over ditches and onto roads. However, the combination of falling and blowing snow will produce low visibility during the late afternoon and evening when the snowfall is heaviest.

Watch for Ice Lurking Under Snow By Tomorrow Morning

There will be more problems due to temperatures falling below freezing. I expect temperatures to arrive at freezing shortly after sundown and fall back into the 20's late at night. This will allow any slush or wet areas lurking under the snow pack to freeze. So, anywhere when the snow isn't cleared and the roads salted will have the risk of ice lurking underneath the snow. This will continue difficult driving conditions from the evening commute through tomorrow morning's commute. You should also be careful walking on any driveway, parking lots, and sidewalks that have been cleared of snow, but not salted.

The final snow depth will probably be closer to between 1 and 4 inches, since the early wet snow and slush will easily compact.

The National Weather Service has extended the winter storm warning to include St. Cloud,  Twin Cities, and even the Minnesota River Valley. Only the I-90 corridor is out of the warning. When lower amounts of snow are expected, a wind advisory is in effect.

Unusually Heavy Weight of Snow

The final issue from this snow will be that the period of wet snow or rain will make the density of the snow pack heavier than usual, so the snow will be difficult to remove (even snowblowers will have difficulty removing plow piles). Make sure you are up for the job.

December-Like Cold Wednesday Through Friday...

The storm will move quickly, so the snow will taper off in central Minnesota shortly after midnight, and in the Twin Cities during the early morning hours. After that, the teeth of the December-like cold will move in. High temperatures are likely to remain no higher than the 20's from Wednesday through Saturday. Highs might remain in the upper teens on Friday through the rest of the weekend. The blustery conditions with wind gusts to 40 MPH will continue through tomorrow. And northwest winds will still be blowing at 8-15 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday. That will put morning wind chills in the plus single digits and perhaps near zero and afternoon wind chills in the plus single digits to teens. That won't be the high danger range of the wind chill (see NWS Wind Chill Chart), but staying warm for an hour or more in case of an accident will be difficult. That's why you should pack the ingredients for a cold weather survival kit in your vehicle before doing any Thanksgiving weekend travel.

...With Major Snowfall to East and South of Great Lakes

There will be major snowfall problems after tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior as the December-like air moves over the very warm Great Lakes. That will produce major snowfall Wednesday and Thursday (see Days 2-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast; set tab to both 00 UTC Thurs and 00 UTC Fri and set amounts to 6 inches or more on the NWS WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance). Travel will be quite difficult through Thursday in northern Wisconsin or Upper Michigan.

Links to Ground and Air Travel Conditions

I will be on duty all of this week, due to the high demand for updated weather information. That includes Thanksgiving morning as well as next weekend. As usual, I will have the following link of ground and air travel links all week

• Ground Travel
  • Minnesota
  • Surrounding States
    • Iowa
    • North Dakota
    • South Dakota
    • Nebraska
    • Wisconsin
    • Michigan
  • Surrounding Provinces
    • Manitoba
    • Ontario
• Air Travel
  • Flight Aware Misery Map
  • Flight Aware Delays and Cancellations

Travel Issues This Weekend Mostly to Our South (Unless You Don't Like the Cold)

There will be a major storm later in the weekend (from the complex of low pressure systems along the western Aleutian Islands; see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), but it will primarily affect the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving (see Days 2-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), then cause an outbreak of showers and thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The situation in the south could cause major flight delays, since it could affect Dallas-Ft. Worth and Atlanta.

Parts of southern and perhaps central Minnesota will be on the fringe of the precipitation as this storm moves to the Lower Mississippi Valley. That would create the potential for a light snowfall on Friday night (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). It's a bit early to take that as seriously as I did for today's storm, but I have thrown in a forecast of light snow or flurries on Friday night with the potential for between a dusting and an inch. Zero is included in that forecast. Another shot of colder air will move in on the northwest flank of this system, so high temperatures may have difficulty getting out of the teens during the day and could fall to zero or colder between Sunday and Monday. Beyond that, the forecast becomes nearly impossible.

So, we have the potential for temperatures remaining below freezing from tomorrow into early next week. However, it will still be much too early to try out the ice cover on lakes, especially given the snowfall and strong winds, which are not great conditions for ice development. Keep in mind the Minnesota DNR recommendations for ice safety.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Winter Storm Warning Tuesday Afternoon and Evening

Tuesday 11/25/2025: Rain or showers developing during the morning, then a mixture of rain and wet snow during the afternoon, turning to mostly wet snow and accumulating just after sundown. Between a dusting and an inch of slush accumulation is possible 4-6 PM. Turning blustery and colder. High: between 37 and 42 during the morning, falling to near freezing during the late afternoon. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH, shifting to N 20-35 MPH by late in the day. Afternoon wind chill: between 15 and 25. Chance of measurable precipitation: 60% during the morning, 90% during the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: All precipitation turning to wet snow and falling at a moderate rate by early evening. Steady snow tapering to occasional snow showers or flurries after midnight. Between 2 and 5 inches of new snow could fall overnight, producing a total accumulation of between 3 and 6 inches. Low visibility in falling and blowing snow. Ice forming underneath snow pack. Turning colder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 20-30 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH especially late at night. Wind chill: between 5 and 20. Chance of measurable snowfall: 90% during the evening, 40% during the early morning hours.

Wednesday 11/26/2025: Cloudy with a few morning flurries, then a mixture of clouds and sun during the afternoon. Still blustery with December-like cold and a biting wind. Temperature holding between 20 and 28. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with gusts to 45 MPH through early afternoon, 15-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH during the middle and late afternoon. Wind chill: between 0 and 20. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Clearing, still a biting breeze, and even colder. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 0 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Thursday 11/27/2025: Sunny in the morning, mixed clouds and sun during the afternoon, still a biting breeze, and December-like. High: between 22 and 28. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: plus single digits during the morning, teens during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear, calm winds, and colder. Low: between 5 and 15. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light NW late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday 11/28/2025: Sunshine through thickening middle clouds, light winds, and still cold. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: light during the morning, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Friday Night: Clouding up with a chance of light snow or flurries late at night. Light winds, but not quite as cold. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: light W. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 11/29/2025: A chance of light snow or flurries early; otherwise, becoming partly sunny for the midday and afternoon. Between a dusting and an inch of new snow is possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. Still cold. High: between 18 and 24. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Even colder Sunday and Monday?? Uncertain beyond Monday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 6 Thursday through Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Sunday and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 48°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM Tuesday): 29°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 4 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, November 26, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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