Wednesday, January 14, 2026  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

January Temperatures (and Below) Return for Most of the Next 10 Days

Snow Pack Dwindling, But Not Fast Enough for Some

We are now halfway into January, so the grace period given to the snow cover and cold by those people who only want it for Christmas has passed by. That comes despite living in Minnesota where the snow season is typically November through March (and sometimes October and April). Even the snow enthusiasts are grumbling a bit, since the lack of precipitation has even eliminated the snow in parts of west central and south central Minnesota (see 14-day loop of snow depth from NWS NOHRSC) and the recent period of above freezing temperatures has reduced the snow cover elsewhere. Despite that, Charlie, a small dog that I walked at the Tri-County Humane Society yesterday, still enjoyed the snow, alternating between walking and flopping over sideways to roll in the snow pack.

First Wave of Colder Air Moving In

Last night's dip of temperatures back below freezing (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) will make the snow hard-packed and is the first taste of a much colder weather pattern. We will begin the colder period with a temperature roller coaster, as readings fall from the 20's last evening to near 10 by morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Winds have gusted as high as 40 MPH last evening and over 35 MPH during the overnight hours, pushing wind chills below zero (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for latest winds, temperatures, and wind chills). Temperatures will only recover to the teens today and fall back into the plus single digits this evening.

One More Mild Interlude Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night

The upward branch of the temperature roller coaster will be in effect after midnight tonight, as temperatures climb back into the teens by Thursday morning, reach the middle 20's by Thursday afternoon, and likely get near 30 tomorrow evening.

Next Storm To Bring Cold and Wind from Friday Through Weekend

But, a longer and colder period will begin Friday. The next low pressure system is now pushing through southeastern Alaska into the Yukon Territories (see counterclockwise circulation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). This storm will get caught up in the northwest-to-southeast flow seen from Alberta eastward, racing to Lake Superior by midday on Friday. My most confident part of the forecast is that this system will cause blustery winds late Thursday night through Friday and those winds will grab a chunk of the arctic air in northern Alaska (blue and white on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map) and push it into Minnesota and the Dakotas during the day on Friday (use right arrows to advance in time) and keep it here until early Sunday. This will be a more prolonged cold period that what we have seen lately.

So, temperatures will be around 30 degrees on Thursday evening, fall back to the middle to upper 20's by Friday morning, then drop to the teens by midday and the plus single digits by Friday evening. It won't be quite as windy Friday night and Saturday, but temperatures will fall back to a couple of degrees on the minus side with wind chills in the -30 to -15 range by Saturday morning. Highs will only recover to a couple of degrees above zero with some wind chills colder than -25 during the morning. On Saturday night, the high pressure system will be over Minnesota, but we will have partly cloudy skies and a light wind. Lows may drop to -10 by midnight, but temperatures will head back towards zero by dawn.

New Coating of Snow Likely in North Central and Northeast MN Thursday Night and Friday

As the low goes by, there will be a chance of some fluffy accumulating snow, but it won't really refresh the snow cover much, except in north central and northeastern Minnesota on Thursday night and Friday with pockets of 2-4 inches of snowfall (set tab to 18 UTC Fri, noon CST Fri, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). In central Minnesota, there could be a short period of light precipitation on Thursday afternoon and evening. If we see some steady precipitation, it will fall as light snow, but some low clouds and freezing drizzle may be possible. Later Thursday night into Friday, we will have occasional light snow or flurries, but any accumulation will be limited to between a dusting and 2 inches total.

Not Much More Than Flurries Rest of the Weekend

There will be a series of reinforcing lows pushing into Minnesota and the Great Lakes through the weekend and early next week. However, none of these systems appear to be that strong, so flurries, rather than a persistent snow shower, will be more likely Friday night and Saturday. There will also be a chance for light snow or flurries on Sunday as milder air tries to push the back end of this cold out of the way. I don't have any accumulation at this point, but there is only the chance for a coating of snow on Sunday.

Cold Period to Persist Next Week

Beyond Sunday, the northwest-to-southeast flow will continue, so I would only expect painfully slow moderation of the cold by Tuesday. We may see highs no better than the teens and lows still below zero. Once the northwest to southeast flow locks in, it would tend to persist for much of next week. Average to colder than average temperatures will likely continue most of next week, but the computer forecasts can't agree about where the wedge of the coldest air will be, so specifics about how cold and when are still questionable.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 1/14/2026: Sunny, windy, and colder. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with gusts of 35 MPH. Morning wind chill: between -15 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Clear evening, clouding up late at night, lighter winds, and cold. Low: between 3 and 8 near midnight, rising into the teens by morning. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, SW 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday 1/15/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and milder with a slight chance of freezing rain or snow showers. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: S 8-15 MPH through the morning, SW 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy and turning blustery with a chance for flurries or snow showers. Evening temperatures near 30, then falling into the middle 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH early evening, then NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts late evening through daybreak. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Friday 1/16/2026: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries, blustery, and turning colder. Between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow could fall from Thursday night through Friday. Temperatures falling through the teens. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Afternoon wind chill: in the minus single digits. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Friday Night: Cloudy, windy, and colder with a chance of flurries or occasional light snow. Serious wind chills. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill: between -30 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 1/17/2026: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries, blustery, and colder. Little new snow accumulation if any Friday night and Saturday. High: between 0 and +5. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -15 during the morning, in the minus teens during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and colder. A slight chance for a flurry. Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, SE 5-10 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -25 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Sunday 1/18/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cold. Perhaps some light snow or flurries. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: in the minus teens during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Much colder than average next weekend through Tuesday??? Average to colder than average temperatures the rest of next week??? Any precipitation threat will be light????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night, 4 Thursday, 5 Thursday night through Saturday, 4 Saturday night, 3 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 42°F (set at 2 AM); Yesterday's Daytime High: 40°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 20°F; Top Wind Gust (through 2 AM Wednesday): 40 MPH at 5:53 PM;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): Trace

Next Update: Thursday, January 15, 2026 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Earth Sciences Department home page.