Sunday, January 4, 2026  3:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Chance for Freezing Rain or Especially Freezing Drizzle in Central Minnesota

Snow Turning to Freezing Drizzle to Our North

The light precipitation threat for northern and central Minnesota today is still there. Only central Minnesota to our north (Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake and north), and north central and northeastern Minnesota have a good shot at for 1-3 inches of accumulating snow (set tab to 18 UTC Mon, noon CST Mon, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The most likely time for the snow will be from afternoon into early evening.

Threat of Icy Spots This PM and Overnight in Central Minnesota

Otherwise, central Minnesota will only have a small shot at any steady precipitation, which could take the form of freezing rain or snow, with the best chance (only 20%) during today's daylight hours.. However, we are still expected a good shot at fog behind the storm, which could produce freezing drizzle. When you switch the precipitation type to freezing rain and set the time to 12 UTC Mon, the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance has a 50-60% shot (blue) from St. Cloud through the Twin Cities, but that is smaller than the 80- 90% (orange, like the snow outlooked area) chance shown yesterday. So, be aware that any untreated surface could be icy, especially by tomorrow morning. That would include driveways, sidewalks, parking areas, and perhaps some secondary roads.

Even northern Minnesota could see light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in fog after the snow tapers off late this afternoon. The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory in parts of northern and northeastern Minnesota for the combination of snow, followed by ice. East central Minnesota (basically from Hwy. 371 and US 10 eastward from Walker through Brainerd and Elk River, then in all of the Twin Cities area) is also in a winter weather advisory for some light sleet or freezing rain with perhaps a few snowflakes mixed in. More of the area has the threat of fog and freezing drizzle tonight.

Another Chance for Mixed Precipitation in a Narrow Band Tomorrow Night.....But Where in Central or Southern Minnesota?

There is now a second threat for light precipitation, mainly Monday night. This system will likely track over southern Minnesota or northern Iowa as it heads west-to-east. It won't have a lot of moisture available and it isn't that strong, so there won't be a lot of precipitation. However, there is the potential for a narrow band of either mixed precipitation or rain either over central or southern Minnesota. Temperatures will likely be within a couple of degrees of freezing and those degrees will make all the difference for precipitation type. The NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance (set tab to 18 UTC Tue, noon CST Tue, and set precipitation type to freezing rain) shows a high probability of freezing rain right over the Twin Cities. This type of narrow band of a good chance for freezing rain is a pretty good guess, but again this band could set up anywhere from slightly to the north of St. Cloud to southern Minnesota. So, I would put out a wider area of 30-50% precipitation across the southern half of Minnesota, but I wouldn't have any higher chances until there is more consistency in the forecast.

Some Daytime Above Freezing Temperatures Possible

Otherwise, the trend towards some thawing will continue. After this morning's chilly start (temperatures in the plus single digits in the St. Cloud area and sub-zero in some areas like Brainerd, Bemidji, and Hibbing; see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), temperatures likely won't drop below 15 through Wednesday night, with most lows in the 20's. As noted above, temperatures will hover around freezing on Monday night. High temperatures will be limited to the 20's today, thus the freezing precipitation threat. However, highs are likely to break freezing each day of Monday through Thursday.

A Wetter Pattern for Central US (some part of it) Develops by Late Next Week

I noted the possibility of a weather pattern change yesterday. That would involve more strong storms hitting the West Coast of the US. Instead of stalling or only taking a northern track, these systems will have the potential to move through the central Rockies and into the Plains. That would make the flow east of the Rockies southwest-to-northeast, meaning that any storm that gets into the Plains will have the opportunity to ingest a lot more moisture than during recent systems. The first of the systems under the new pattern would be a potential cold front coming through late Wednesday night or Thursday, but the computers are already 12 hours off on the timing of such a front and whether this system would have the chance to drop some rain or snow showers as it comes through. The large difference means that we could have a really mild day on Thursday if the front is slower or a high in the 30's on Thursday morning with temperatures either steady or falling back into the 20's the rest of the day. I am going for only a 20% chance of precipitation early Thursday and temperatures holding in the 30's until midday.

Late Week Storm Prediction? Even for Thursday, I Like My Vikings' Prediction Better (Best Guess: They Will Play the Packers)

There is the potential for a stronger system moving from the West Coast mid-week somewhere into the Plains by the end of next week. However, the computers are way off on position (difference of one or even two states). The only idea I would keep from Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast is that there would be the possibility of heavier precipitation somewhere in the Plains, but I wouldn't feel safe that nearly all of the precipitation is shown to the south of Minnesota.

National Travel Issues Mostly in California This Weekend

In the meantime, the expected flooding from both heavy rain and unusually high tides hit northern California yesterday. The flooding potential will continue today, especially along the slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook).

Ground and Air Travel Links

• Minnesota
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Nebraska
• Iowa
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Air Travel Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

December 2025 finished with two days milder than average (yesterday not shown yet on the NWS St. Cloud December 2025 high/low temperature table), mainly since yesterday began with above freezing temperatures during the early morning hours (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), but it won't be enough to prevent St. Cloud's second colder than average month of the past 32 months since April 2023.

There is a revised December snowfall total of 16.3 inches, thanks to the late month small accumulations. That is still 15th highest December total on record. For the season, St. Cloud has seen 24.3 inches, which is the 20th highest Sept-Dec snowfall in St. Cloud records. While December was only the 2nd of the past 32 months with a colder than average temperature, 2025 still ended up well above normal. My December 2025 and Annual Weather Summary will note how much of the extreme heat ended up being in March, May, and October. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources climatology division mostly rated warm-season weather in the Top 5 Minnesota Weather Events of 2025. While severe weather was limited, the storms that produced major wind damage in Bemidji were rated the #1 event. #2 was the repeated episodes of smoke from Canadian wildfires. Numbers 3 and 4 were heat, both early (May) and late (October).

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday 1/4/2026: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance for steady sleet or freezing rain. Otherwise, some spotty freezing drizzle possible. Seasonably cool. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with some areas of dense fog possible. Spotty freezing drizzle is possible in the fog. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: light N. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Monday 1/5/2026: Some early fog, then mostly cloudy, but even milder. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few rain or mixed precipitation showers late at night. Low: between 28 and 34. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH, shifting to NW late. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Tuesday 1/6/2026: Perhaps some rain or mixed precipitation early, then some sunshine developing for midday and the afternoon. Continued mild. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear with perhaps some late night fog. Still mild. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: NW 5 MPH. becoming SW 5 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Wednesday 1/7/2026: Some early fog, then partly sunny and even milder. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear early. Some increasing clouds late. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Thursday 1/8/2026: A slight chance for an early rain or snow shower. Some sun possible during the afternoon. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SE 5 MPH early, shifting to NW 5-10 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Extended: Low confidence especially on precipitation for Thursday?? Too early to speculate about a potential Friday-Saturday storm threat...or miss???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 5 Sunday through Monday, 3 Monday night through Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night and Thursday, 0 Friday and Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 20°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Sunday): 8°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 3 AM Sunday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 3 AM Sunday): None

Next Update: Monday, January 5, 2026 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Earth Sciences Department home page.