Wednesday, January 21, 2026  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Freeze Weather Ahead

The Type of Cold Ahead Will Be the First Since...

We have been in a period of relatively mild winters. However, there have been some periods of extreme cold over the past 7 years. 

The coldest temperatures seen so far this winter were in the middle of December (13-14). With a single high of zero or colder and a single low of -20. The last time that St. Cloud had three straight days with temperatures below zero was during the week before Christmas in December 2022. There were also 3 scattered days with a high colder than zero in January 2022. That month included a low of -28 degrees on January 7 and a cold high of -7 on New Year's Day. But, the low temperature on January 19, 2025 was -9, the coldest since January 30, 2019, when we last had a high of -10 or colder (a record cold of -17). The longest extreme cold period St. Cloud had seen in recent years was in February 2021. There were 5 straight days with temperatures colder than zero and 8 out of 10 days with a low of zero or colder.  There were also 3 straight days and 4 out of 5 with a low of -20 or colder. The coldest low was also -28. That's the coldest low since those last two days of January 2019, when the low last reached -30 or colder.

Still, the 1996 period in late January and early February (from NWS Twin Cities climate page, use NOWData, daily data for a month, St. Cloud area, and set time to 1996-01 and 1996-02) produced 6 straight days with a high of zero or colder, and 20 straight days with a low of zero or colder, including the 6 straight days with a low of -30 or colder, including the last -40 low in St. Cloud on February 2.

Again, I don't see potential for a record cold day. It would take a Friday or Saturday high of -16 or a Saturday low of -42 to break a record. 

Actual Average January Cold Today With a Few Flurries

We are now having our brief break from the serious cold (note that the 24-hour temperature change in Minnesota is in the plus teens and 20's on the Penn State ewall chart). You can see on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop that the patches of green yesterday morning have given way to only blue colors where skies are clear early this morning. Dark blue isn't quite as cold as the green on this infrared satellite loop. The actual temperatures are in plus territory with even some teens (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). There is a patch of clouds (blue and green moving southeastward from the Canadian Prairie Provinces) and a few stray snow showers (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) associated with a low pressure system running between the cold outbreaks, although most of it is flurries (visibility 5 miles or greater). 

We will have on and off light snow or flurries at times today and tonight, with the best chance for accumulation during today and the most likely location being southern Minnesota (set tab of 24-hour snowfall probability on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance to 00 UTC Thurs, 6 PM Wed CST, for daytime snow potential; set tab to 18 UTC, noon CST, Thurs for overnight snow potential). In central Minnesota, we have a small chance for a dusting to a few tenths of an inch.

But, this will be the mild period with high temperatures between 20 and 25, back to the January average. Overnight, temperatures will fall back to near zero.

Coldest Air in North America to Produce Cold Weather Warnings From Thursday Through Much of Weekend

Then, the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere begins to move in. Extreme wind chills will be back beginning tomorrow afternoon in central Minnesota and beginning in northern Minnesota tonight (already a cold weather warning in far northern Minnesota in the Boundary Waters and along the Canadian border, see dark blue, and a cold weather advisory for the rest of northern Minnesota (see light blue) southward to Detroit Lakes, Brainerd, and Hinckley.) The rest of Minnesota and Wisconsin have an extreme cold watch for Thursday night through Saturday morning.

The coldest of the cold, which can be seen by the dark blue at the ground (see Pacific clean infrared satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider), and the blue and white areas on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature chart) is now beginning to ooze southward from eastern Nunavut along the northwest side of Hudson Bay. That southward movement will allow the leading edge of the cold air to go by tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to northwest early tomorrow and increase to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH for the midday and afternoon. Temperatures may hold in the plus single digits for a while tomorrow morning, then fall below zero during the afternoon. That will put wind chills in the -35 to -15 range during tomorrow afternoon (you can find the latest temperatures, wind gusts, and wind chills on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). The core of the cold air will be over Minnesota on Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures will be in the minus teens and could drop into the -20's Friday night and Saturday with enough wind to produce wind chills in the -45 to -25 range. High temperatures are likely to stay below zero on Saturday and may have trouble topping -10. The bitter wind chills will continue through most of the day.

There is some question about a weak potential low pressure system that could push some clouds and perhaps a few snow flurries into Minnesota on Saturday night and Sunday. The air will be so dry that it would be hard for anything but flurries to fall, but the clouds could temper the Saturday night and Sunday cold a little (lows in the minus teens or even minus single digits? highs near zero). However, other computer forecasts don't have these clouds, which would allow for another potential -20 low and another below zero high on Sunday. 

The best chance of temperatures climbing above zero will be on Monday afternoon. Again, that could come off another low in the minus teens or -20's early Monday. There is some moderation in the forecast, since the coldest of the cold air will pass into eastern Canada and the Northeast by early next week. Still, there are conflicting signs about how much temperatures will moderate (highs in plus single digits? Teens?? Perhaps a day of average temperatures, in the +20's) through the middle of next week. 

Serious Wind Chills, Extreme Low Temperature Safety Precautions for Late This Week

We will see periods of wind chills colder than -35 (dark blue on the NWS wind chill chart), at which exposed skin can freeze in 10 minutes or less.  I usually note the need for that cold weather survival kit for any travel when wind chills get to -25 or colder. But, the big risk in the conditions from Thursday night through Saturday is if you get stranded (I noted several fender-benders due to patchy ice on the St. Cloud area roads yesterday). With these severe wind chills, you won't be able to be outside or even in an unheated car waiting for help for a long period of time. So, the safest step may be to minimize travel plans. An actual temperature of -20 or colder is possible Friday night and Saturday morning with at least a shot at others on Saturday and Sunday nights. These temperatures are cold enough to cause starting trouble for any vehicles left outside.

Getting your car battery and vehicle in tip-top shape during the middle of this week would be a good idea.

Weekend Surge of Arctic Air Will Cause Screaming to Our South and East, Even Though We Will be the Coldest

If misery loves company, the coldest air will get much further to the south within the US over the weekend with the chance of a snow (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook) and even freezing rain storm much further south than usual. Much more of the country will be more than 20 degrees colder than average with a good chunk 30 degrees colder than average, instead of the mere 20 degrees below average right now in Minnesota (see upper left panel of the current temperature departure from average from the Penn State ewall).

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 1/21/2026: Mostly cloudy with a chance of morning or midday occasional light snow or flurries. Between a dusting and an inch of new snow is possible by evening. Some partial sunshine during the afternoon. Not as cold. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: SW 5–10 MPH during the morning, NW 10–20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear during the evening, then clouding up after midnight. Perhaps snow showers late at night. Low: between 0 and +5. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, then SW 5-10 MPH during the early morning hours, shifting back to NW 8-15 MPH towards morning. Wind chill: between -20 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday 1/22/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, becoming windy, and turning colder. Perhaps a stray flurry. Serious wind chills during the afternoon. Morning temperatures between 0 and +10, falling below zero during the afternoon. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH during the morning, increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -35 and -15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday Night:  Mostly clear and breezy with brutal cold, and dangerous wind chills. Low: between -22 and -15. Winds: NW 10–20 MPH during the evening, 8–15 MPH during the early morning hours. Wind chill: between -47 and -30. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 1/23/2026: Useless sunshine, brutal cold, and lighter winds, but dangerous wind chills continue. High: between -15 and -8. (record cold high: -16 in 1936). Winds: NW 8–15 MPH. Wind chill: between -47 and -25 during the morning, between -40 and -20 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and extreme cold. Low: between -27 and -18 (record cold low: -42 in 1904). Winds: W 5 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -45 and -25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 1/24/2026: Ineffective sunshine with some afternoon clouds, brutal cold, light winds, with spotty dangerous wind chills. High: between -10 and -4. (record cold high: -16 in 1897). Winds: SE 5–10 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -45 and -25 during the morning, between -25 and -10 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, light winds, and not quite as ridiculously cold. A slight chance for flurries. Low: between -18 and -8 (record cold low: -40 in 1894). Winds: SE 5 MPH during the evening, NE 5-10 MPH during the early morning hours. Spotty wind chill: between -35 and -18. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Sunday 1/25/2026: The Ice Age continues. Partly sunny, perhaps a stray snowflake, and breezy, with spotty dangerous wind chills. High: between -10 and 0. (record cold high: -13 in 1972). Winds: becoming NW 8-15 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -35 and -15 during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Sunday night lows in the minus teens??? Monday afternoon temperatures back above zero??? Uncertain how quickly the cold will ease during the middle of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday through Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Monday and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 11°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 7°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): TBA

Next Update: Thursday, January 22, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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