Wednesday, December 17, 2025  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Temperature Swing From Above Freezing to Colder Than Average Tomorrow (Some Snow Chances)

36 Hours of Wind, Temperature Change, and Perhaps a Little Precipitation Ahead

We have another 24 hours of these mild conditions until much colder air begins to move in tomorrow. The storm causing the major temperature change will be strong enough to really crank up the winds from this afternoon through tomorrow evening. However, the main precipitation threat will be to our north, with only a few rain or snow showers possible tonight and perhaps some light snow tomorrow. The falling temperatures will produce icing of any untreated wet spots during tomorrow.

Finishing the 68 Degree Climb Yesterday

We completed the 68-degree swing from Sunday's -20 low to yesterday's 48 high (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). That was because the strong west winds brought the warm air from the Dakotas early yesterday morning (see 6 AM Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) brought the warmth to Minnesota yesterday afternoon (see 3 PM Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), our first day above freezing since the Thanksgiving week snow storms. On the average, St. Cloud has 9 days with a high of at least freezing in December.

Temperatures hung above freezing through much of the evening (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), but fell back into the 20's during the early morning hours. That's still nearly right on the average high for December 17.

Still Mild Today and Tonight....

We have another mild day and a night ahead despite the cold front passing from the north (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC Continental US surface maps). While we probably won't hit 40 degrees today, highs will be in the middle to upper 30's today with temperatures remaining near or above freezing for much of tonight. Last evening's winds, gusting as high as 38 MPH (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), will ease off a bit this morning, but pick up during the afternoon as the next storm, now approaching the British Columbia coast (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop), will race into northern Minnesota by tomorrow morning.

And Even Windier, Especially Tomorrow PM

This storm will be quite strong by tomorrow morning, so we will see even stronger winds developing than we had overnight. By this afternoon, wind gusts will reach 35 MPH and could remain above 30 MPH overnight (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest winds and wind gusts). But, our strongest winds will occur tomorrow, especially from midday on, after the cold front from this system passes through. There will be wind gusts over 40 MPH, and perhaps approaching 50 MPH.

As noted above, our temperatures will remain mild today and tonight until early tomorrow morning. But, once the front comes through, the colder air in south central Canada will move in, so temperatures will fall back to the 20's by midday tomorrow and could reach the teens by the middle or late afternoon. Since the temperatures will be near seasonable levels during the middle of the day, the wind chills will only dip a little below zero tomorrow afternoon.

Narrow Band of Accumulating Snow in Northern Minnesota...

The bulk of the expected precipitation will be along or north of the storm track. Since the forecast of that storm track has shifted a bit further to the south during the past day, the area with the best chance for between 2 and 5 inches of snow has shifted to Minnesota to the north of Hwy. 2 (set tab to 00 UTC Fri, 6 PM CST Thursday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The temperatures will be warm enough for some rain late this afternoon and this evening, so there will be a chance for some freezing rain, mainly in northeastern and east central Minnesota (set precipitation type to freezing rain, tab to 12 UTC Thurs, 6 AM Thurs CST, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance).

Central MN: Few Sprinkles or Flurries Tonight, Perhaps Some Light Snow Tomorrow

Central Minnesota will be south of that storm track, so I only see the chance for a scattered rain or snow shower tonight (1 in 3 chance) with little accumulation. There will be a shot at the back side of the snow area tomorrow midday and afternoon. I have a 50-50 shot at seeing some snow flakes, but the odds of even an inch of accumulation are small right now (set tab to 00 UTC Fri, 6 PM CST Thursday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Note the narrow bands of color just to the north of St. Cloud in the latest forecast. That means that any further southward change in the storm track will give central Minnesota a better shot at this lingering snow. I don't see a lot of snow, even if the storm track is further south, so I have an accumulation of between a dusting and 2 inches possible as a worst case threat.

The National Weather Service has a winter storm watch from North Dakota and the Red River Valley to International Falls and the western edge of the Boundary Waters. While the snow pack will have a crust on it from the melting and refreezing cycle of yesterday and today, any major snow combined with the wind has a chance to produce some blizzard conditions in open areas.

But Any Wet Spots Will Ice Up Tomorrow as Temperatures Fall

The winds and the temperature drop are far more reliable forecasts than the precipitation. That means that any wet spots from either light precipitation or melting will freezing tomorrow morning, so expect patches of ice on any untreated surfaces. That will be even more of a threat during the strong wind period from midday tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening since any strong wind gust could shove a vehicle into an icy area. Tomorrow, expect to see the National Weather Service issue a wind advisory and a high wind warning for parts of central and southern Minnesota not affected by the winter storm conditions.

Rapid (Less Extreme?) Temperature Changes Friday Into Next Week

Beyond Thursday, we will have a series of fast moving storms going by. There doesn't appear to be much moisture with any system, so the precipitation chances won't be great (see Days 2-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). However, this will continue a series of quick temperature changes, but they won't be as extreme as the last 4 days. There will be some spotty wind chills in the -20's to perhaps -30 on Thursday evening as the winds stay up (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest temperatures, winds, and wind chills), but Friday morning's low will bottom out a couple of degrees below zero. Temperatures will return to the teens Friday afternoon and likely hold or even rise into the 20's early Saturday morning. The next cold front will allow temperatures to fall back into the teens Saturday afternoon with a near zero low by Sunday morning. Temperatures will be back in the plus teens on Sunday afternoon. However, a more persistent mild streak is more likely next Monday into the middle of next week.

But, this fast-moving pattern with quick temperature changes is a low confidence pattern in which day would be mild and which day would be cold.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 12/17/2025: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds with a slight chance for a sprinkle, turning windy again and still mild. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH during the morning, SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and windy with a chance for snow or rain showers. Perhaps some partial clearing by morning. Little or no accumulation is possible by morning. Still mild. Low: near 32. Winds: SE-S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, SW 10-20 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Thursday 12/18/2025: Mostly cloudy, blustery, and turning colder. A chance for occasional flurries or light snow. Between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow are possible by evening. Low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. Icy spots on untreated roads. Sunrise temperatures near freezing, but temperatures falling into the 20's by midday and the teens by the afternoon. Winds: W 10-20 MPH during the morning, NW 20-35 MPH with gusts over 45 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -10 and +5 afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Thursday Night: Clearing, diminishing wind late at night, and colder, but not as extreme as during the past weekend. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, NW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Evening wind chill: between -27 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 12/19/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and cold. A chance for occasional light snow or flurries by late in the day. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH during the morning, SE 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Morning wind chill: between -10 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance for flurries. Milder. Temperatures holding in the teens during the evening, then rising into the 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: S 5 MPH evening, light during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 12/20/2025: Cloudy with perhaps some morning flurries, then partial clearing, breezy, and seasonably cold. High: between 22 and 27 during the morning, falling into the teens during the afternoon. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a chance for evening flurries, then partial clearing late at night. Milder. Low: between 0 and +10. Winds: W-NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/21/2025: Partly clear, a light breeze, and colder. Temperatures in the teens during the morning, falling to the plus single digits during the afternoon. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Milder first half of next week???? Temperature roller coaster much of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night, 5 Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 48°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 29°F; Top Wind Gust: 38 MPH at 7:40 PM Tuesday
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Thursday, December 18, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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