Local Forecast


Friday, July 3, 2015 4:04 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Go Fourth and Celebrate

Discussion Links Forecast

Minor Storm Chances Until Sunday Night

The cooler Canadian air did take hold of Minnesota yesterday. While there was a better supply of sunshine (still dimmed a bit by the smoke from the northern Canadian Prairie Province fires; see milky areas on the visible loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The high temperature made it make into the upper half of the 70's, thanks to the increased sun (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). You could also feel that drier air.

Overnight, we've been clear (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), cool, and calm (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map), so there are widespread temperatures in the lower half of the 50's. As of 3 AM, Paynesville has dropped to 47 degrees with St. Cloud Airport approaching 50 degrees (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations).

80's Return Today and Tomorrow

For the next couple of days, we will only see small chances of showers and thunderstorms, as the forecast warming takes hold. Today, a weak storm system (see counterclockwise swirl on water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) crosses northern Minnesota. There are a couple of early morning showers there (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop) and there is a chance of more showers flaring up this afternoon, especially in the Arrowhead and northern Wisconsin. Still, I'd give no more than a 1 out of 3 chance for central Minnesota to see a shower. Highs will be back in the lower 80's and dew points will climb back into the noticeable upper half of the 50's.

Tomorrow, the next surge of the hot and humid air will take hold. It looks like we could see more sunshine than I had earlier forecast, so I'm raising high temperatures on Saturday into the middle to upper 80's and on Sunday to near 90 degrees. As more humid air gets pumped into Minnesota from the southwest, we may have a shot at a shower or thunderstorm Saturday night, but I'd rate the chances right now at 1 out of 5, so I wouldn't worry about any Independence Day celebrations. The main safety tip for the holiday is to bring sunscreen and plenty of water, since it will get uncomfortably humid, especially Sunday, and we aren't used to this heat (only a single 90-degree day so far in St. Cloud).

90(?) Sunday, Followed by Sunday Night Storms

The main threat for showers and thunderstorms over the next four days will be when the cold front comes through on Sunday night into Monday. It looks like there will be enough hot air aloft to suppress thunderstorms until the cold front goes by, so that would keep the best chance for storms to Sunday night and Monday morning. Some of the storms could be strong, but there may be stronger storms to the south, robbing our storms of severe weather potential. Still, this situation should be watched. With the humid air around, there could be the potential for heavy rain, but it looks like this front will have a steady southeast push to it, which would limit the threat for enough rain to cause flooding.

This cold front will once again beat back the hot air dominating the West (100's yesterday throughout the Pacific Northwest, Idaho and even southeastern British Columbia), so it looks like drier and cooler air will push in. If we clear out the clouds early enough on Monday, we could still see highs in the lower 80's, but today's comfortable humidity levels will return. The Canadian air will be in full effect Tuesday with morning temperatures near 50 rising only to the middle to upper 70's.

We will remain along the main storm track, so we could see storms Wednesday or Thursday of next week, but that's a shaky forecast right now.

June Near Average Temperature, and Drier the Past 10 Days

We are now one-third through meteorological summer with the start of July. In June, St. Cloud has seen the very wet pattern that dominated May and the first 20 days of June ease off, so that June rainfall was about half an inch above average. The combined May-June rainfall ranks as the 25th wettest in St. Cloud records. Temperatures were within a degree of normal. You can find more details on my June 2015 St. Cloud weather summary later this morning.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Friday 7/3: Hazy sunshine, warmer and noticeably humid with a chance of a scattered afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, not quite as cool, and more humid. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 7/4: Mostly sunny, very warm, and noticeably humid. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, warm and humid. A slight chance of an overnight thunderstorm. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 7/5: Sunny, breezy, hot, and uncomfortably humid. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 87 and 92. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.


Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"

Sunday Night: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce severe weather. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Monday 7/6: Early showers giving way to afternoon sun, breezy, not quite as warm, and turning less humid as the day goes on. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly clear, breezy, cooler, and drier. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 7/7: Sunny and warm with comfortable humidity. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: W 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Next chance of storms Wednesday??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday through Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 4 Monday night and Tuesday, 3 Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 77F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 51F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Friday): None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 4 AM Friday): None

Normal Temperatures for July 3 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Saturday, July 4, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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