Local Forecast


Friday, August 1, 2014 3:19 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Summer Weather Continues in Force Through Weekend

We have now arrived at above average temperatures over the past two days with highs topping out in the middle 80's (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). There hasn't been quite as much sunshine as some haze from fires in the Canadian Northwest Territories near Great Slave Lake blew into Minnesota.

However, you can see that any major push of thunderstorms has been shunted northward into the Canadian Rockies of Alberta (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). That's where the strongest flow over more humid air over the warm, but dry air has been diverted.

We will continue with the generally warm and dry conditions into the weekend with only a slight increase in humidity. We will continue with more clouds in the afternoon than the mornings and there will be a small chance of late afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, but the general dry air near the ground will limit the threat. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80's again today with a chance of a 90-degree reading tomorrow afternoon. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50's to middle 60's.

The weather pattern will eventually change as we head into the new week. The hot and more humid air will become better established over the Dakotas, so the same boundary now over Alberta will push into Minnesota next week. That means we will have a better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The bulk of the storms should develop overnight and there will be a threat of severe weather as well as heavy rainfall. While southern Minnesota and northern Iowa are highlighted for this heavy rain, the position of the weather systems 3-5 days down the road could push the heavier rainfall our way (or even further to the south). There should be more clouds during the daytime, so highs will be limited to the lower half of the 80's at best and perhaps stay in the upper 70's. You will notice the humidity increase as well.

Right now, the US computer forecast is predicting a stalled storm system to develop over Minnesota and the Dakotas by the middle of next week. I don't trust a system like that this far into the forecast, so I'm going to stay with the idea of showers and thunderstorms. I'm not sure of the timing of any cooling trend towards the second half of next week.

For the weekend, the heavy rains in west Texas and the Southern Rockies (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will continue. There are flash flood watches out now for southern New Mexico into the El Paso area, with daily rainfall expected throughout the weekend over Arizona, New Mexico, and into west Texas. The rainfall amounts aren't high, but these are desert soils which don't limit runoff well, so the flood threat will continue.

The second tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Bertha, has formed to the east of Barbados. Top winds are 45 MPH. The storm is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it hits Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Dominica by tomorrow. There could be a threat in Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and the Virgin Islands over the weekend.

The July St. Cloud weather summary shows nearly average temperatures for the month, thanks to our drier and warmer period over the second half of the month. About the only statistic that is cooler than average is the lack of 90-degree days so far (only 2, compared to the average 7 through the end of July). The drying this month is just as big a story with July likely ending up with 1.25 inch. That's less than the average for March. Despite that, the growing season rainfall and rainfall for the first 7 months of the year both rank in the top 10.

See Forecast Below

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Forecast:

Friday 8/1: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon with a chance of a late shower. Very warm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and mild. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: W 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 8/2: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, hot, with a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 87 and 92. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly clear and mild. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 8/3: Partly sunny and very warm with a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly clear and more humid with a chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 8/4: More clouds with some sunny breaks, more humid, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly early morning and middle to late afternoon. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday Night: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms with severe weather possible. Very humid. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Tuesday 8/5: Lots of clouds, maybe some sun, warm and sticky with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Stormy period with more showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs in lower 80's. Lows in the 60's. Cooling off second half of next week?

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Thursday through Friday, 7 Friday night and Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday, 2 Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yesterday's High: 86°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 61F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Thursday): None

Normal Temperatures for August 1 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Monday, August 4, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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