Wednesday, June 19, 2013 5:38 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Partly Cloudy, Increasing Chance of Storms Late Week and Weekend

Despite a fair number of clouds yesterday afternoon, we've kept the showers away. However, the infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu shows that storms aren't far away. There were a few scattered storms that developed from Montana into Kansas overnight. There is still some trouble with drier air near the ground, so there aren't huge numbers of radar echoes (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop), but it shows the beginning of the moisture increase. The warm front marking the leading edge of the warm and sticky air will push through tomorrow and tomorrow night, so the chances of showers and thunderstorms will slowly ramp up from this afternoon through tomorrow night. Look for the chance of a few scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a better chance of storms late at night. Still, we should see a break in the storms from mid-morning through the afternoon tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely with the possibility of severe weather Thursday night. There could also be some heavy rain.

We will be in the more humid air from Friday through Sunday. The biggest uncertainty will be how good the threat of storms will be each day, but it looks like we will have a better chance of storms overnight into the early morning hours each night. This will continue until the main cold front passes through, which should happen on Sunday night.

There have been 8-10 inches of rain since April in the St. Cloud area and just to the northeast into eastern Morrison and Mille Lacs County. The wet weather won't help the slow planting season we've had so far. This week's Minnesota Crop Weather Report shows adequate or surplus moisture in more than 90% of both the surface and subsoil. About half the week was suitable for field work, which is nearly average, but doesn't allow catching up from the slow start. The cool wet conditions also mean a bumper crop of ticks and mosquitoes and ridiculous pollen levels (which are not being rated high enough to justify my runny nose and watery eyes on the Pollen.com forecast).

The fire situation continues to be bad in the interior West where it continues to be dry. Conditions are good for fires to spread in the Central Rockies with 15 large fires ongoing from California to Colorado. Here is a link to the latest smoke and fire that can be viewed by satellite. Note that the smoke is more widespread in southern Canada than the US.

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS HPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State Pacific RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Atlantic Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• Yesterday's Regional severe weather reports from NWS Chanhassen
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
  Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey
• US weather related deaths

Road Reports

• Minnesota Road Reports
• North Dakota Road Reports
• South Dakota Road Reports
• Wisconsin Road Reports
• Iowa Road Reports
• FlightAware.com's live flight tracking page (for flight delays)
• FlightAware.com flight cancellations

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud April 2012 weather summary.
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• Minnesota State Climatology drought report from MN State Climatology Office (updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Wednesday 6/19: Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms and milder. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday 6/20: Partly sunny, warmer, and more humid with a good chance of especially afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. More humid. Low: between 64 and 68. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Friday 6/21: Chance of morning showers and thunderstorms, then partly sunny with a slight chance of more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% in the morning, 20% in the afternoon.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Friday Night: Good chance of late night showers and thunderstorms, still warm, and sticky. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday 6/22: Morning storms, afternoon sun, warm, and sticky. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: ENE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Sunday 6/23: Mixed clouds and sun, warm, and sticky with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Extended: Still warm, but not as sticky through Tuesday. Not quite as great a threat of storms??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night, 4 Friday, 3 Friday night, 2 Saturday through Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 75°F; This Morning's Low (through 5 AM): 53°F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Precipitation (Through 5 AM): None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 5 AM): None

Normal Temperatures for June 19 - High: 79°F; Low: 55°F
Next Update: Thursday, June 20 8:00 AM
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.