Wednesday, June 19, 2013 5:38 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Partly Cloudy, Increasing Chance of Storms Late Week and Weekend
Despite a fair number of clouds yesterday afternoon, we've kept the showers away. However, the infrared loop from College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu shows that storms aren't far away. There were a few scattered storms that developed from Montana into Kansas overnight. There is still some trouble with drier air near the ground, so there aren't huge numbers of radar echoes (see NWS
Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop), but it shows the beginning of the moisture increase. The warm front marking the leading edge of the warm and sticky air will push through tomorrow and tomorrow night, so the chances of showers and thunderstorms will slowly ramp up from this afternoon through tomorrow night. Look for the chance of a few scattered late day and evening showers and thunderstorms with a better chance of storms late at night. Still, we should see a break in the storms from mid-morning through the afternoon tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely with the possibility of severe weather Thursday night. There could also be some heavy rain.
We will be in the more humid air from Friday through Sunday. The biggest uncertainty will be how good the threat of storms will be each day, but it looks like we will have a better chance of storms overnight into the early morning hours each night. This will continue until the main cold front passes through, which should happen on Sunday night.
There have been 8-10 inches of rain since April in the St. Cloud area and just to the northeast into eastern Morrison and Mille Lacs County. The wet weather won't help the slow planting season we've had so far. This week's Minnesota Crop Weather Report shows adequate or surplus moisture in more than 90% of both the surface and subsoil. About half the week was suitable for field work, which is nearly average, but doesn't allow catching up from the slow start. The cool wet conditions also mean a bumper crop of ticks and mosquitoes and ridiculous pollen levels (which are not being rated high enough to justify my runny nose and watery eyes on the Pollen.com forecast).
The fire situation continues to be bad in the interior West where it continues to be dry. Conditions are good for fires to spread in the Central Rockies with 15 large fires ongoing from California to Colorado. Here is a link to the latest smoke and fire that can be viewed by satellite. Note that the smoke is more widespread in southern Canada than the US.
Wednesday 6/19: Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms and milder. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.
Thursday 6/20: Partly sunny, warmer, and more humid with a good chance of especially afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. More humid. Low: between 64 and 68. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.
Friday 6/21: Chance of morning showers and thunderstorms, then partly sunny with a slight chance of more showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% in the morning, 20% in the afternoon.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Friday Night: Good chance of late night showers and thunderstorms, still warm, and sticky. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Saturday 6/22: Morning storms, afternoon sun, warm, and sticky. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: ENE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Saturday Night: Partly clear with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Sunday 6/23: Mixed clouds and sun, warm, and sticky with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.
Extended: Still warm, but not as sticky through Tuesday. Not quite as great a threat of storms??
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night, 4 Friday, 3 Friday night, 2 Saturday through Sunday.
Yesterday's High: 75°F; This Morning's Low (through 5 AM): 53°F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Precipitation (Through 5 AM): None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 5 AM): None
Normal Temperatures for June 19 - High: 79°F;
Next Update: Thursday, June 20 8:00 AM
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.