Local Forecast


Thursday, October 30, 2014 3:21 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

"When the Gales of November Came Early"

The old cool air mass managed to produce its second day of highs only in the 40's yesterday (Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). In fact, St. Cloud's high of 43 degrees was the coolest seen in St. Cloud since April 27. Given the lack of sunshine and still a bit of a biting breeze, it was a bit of a shock to the system.

Overnight, a new batch of clouds from the west has pushed in (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). There were a couple of hours of clear skies early in the evening(see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations), but thicker clouds and even a bit of measurable rainfall have pushed in late this evening (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). Temperatures are cool enough aloft that some of the spotty showers have even had some light mixed precipitation (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map). This batch of clouds and light precipitation is associated with a low pressure system, dragging a reinforcing cold front into the Northern Plains (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). Today will work out a lot like Tuesday with a lot of low clouds as the new air mass surges in. We could see those sprinkles or light showers linger into the midday hours and may see a stray raindrop or snowflake in the afternoon. High temperatures will remain stuck in the middle to upper 40's with some more brisk northwest winds developing. However, I don't expect it to be as windy as Tuesday.

The air behind this front is even cooler than what we've had the past two days. At this point, however, it looks like the lower atmosphere is dry enough behind this system to allow more sunshine than we've seen the past couple of days. That should allow high temperatures tomorrow to stay in the middle to upper 40's. However, clearing skies overnight will likely allow low temperatures to drop well down into the 20's. St. Cloud's coolest low so far this fall was 27 degrees, set on October 11. We could see a low in the lower 20's or even near 20 degrees, most likely early Saturday morning if we can hold off the high clouds. That could end up being our coldest temperature since the 19 degree low on April 18. More specifically, for Halloween evening activities, note that temperatures will be falling quickly as the sun goes down, so readings are likely to be in the upper or even middle 20's Friday evening between 6 and 9 PM. At least the winds will be light, however. And, there won't be a Halloween blizzard.

We will see another chilly day on Saturday with filtered sunshine through high clouds. Temperatures will recover from the early 20-degree lows to climb well up into the 40's and perhaps make it to 50 degrees. A bit of moderation will continue on Sunday and Monday with highs probably making it into the 50's and lows "only" in the 30's.

However, the overall weather pattern well into next week will continue to feature upper-air winds from northwest to southeast across western Canada (as you can see right now on the water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). That will allow a continued series of cooler than average air masses. The next cooler air mass after Friday will be due late Monday. So, Tuesday and Wednesdsay will likely have highs will likely be limited to the 40's with possible lows in the 20's. The most unfortunate part of these temperatures is that they are pretty close to average for and early November. There could be more reinforcing cool air masses later in the week, so don't expect any 60's soon.

Also, note that Saturday night marks the end of Daylight Savings Time. We turn our clocks back an hour to Standard Time at 2 AM Sunday morning. This chart from timeanddate.com shows how much of the world uses Daylight Savings Time and when it comes to an end. Here's a current worldwide time zone clock to check your time as well.

The 0.01 inch of rain in the early morning hours so far still leaves the St. Cloud rainfall since September 10 short of an inch (0.98 inch) since September 10 in St. Cloud. The average over this period is 4.50 inches. At the end of September, St. Cloud's total rainfall ranked as the 4th highest through September. However, the slow down in rain means that the January through October rainfall total of 34.08 inches only ranks in 6th place among the first 10 months of the year. St. Cloud is still a bit more than an inch short of climbing into the top 10 wettest years on record. Despite the recent coolness, the St. Cloud Airport average temperature for October is still 49.5 degrees, 3.3 degrees warmer than normal. That will go down through tomorrow, but will end up being probably at least a couple of degrees milder than average.

The heavy rain pattern along the Pacific Northwest has now produced a wide area of over 5 inches of rain from the coast of Washington into northern California. The next batch of rain is moving into Oregon right now (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) with at least some rain pushing into the northern Central Valley and San Francisco Bay area over the next couple of days.

See Forecast Below

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Forecast:

Thursday 10/30: Mostly cloudy with a chance of morning rain showers and a few afternoon sprinkles, windy, and continued cool. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and colder. Low: between 24 and 28. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 10/31: The coolest day of the season so far. Sunshine returns. High: between 42 and 46. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, diminishing wind, and quite chilly. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NE 5 MPH, becoming SE 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 11/1: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and slightly milder. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and not quite as cool. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 11/2: Partly sunny, breezy, and more seasonable. High: between 52 and 56. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: Clouding up, breezy, and a bit milder. Low: between 38 and 44. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 11/3: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and not quite as mild. Perhaps a sprinkle. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SW-W 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and cooler. Perhaps a stray sprinkle or flurry. Low: between 32 and 36. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 11/4: Some early clouds, then sunshine returns. Breezy and on the cool side. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued reinforcing shots of cool air through next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Thursday through Saturday, 7 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 4 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 43°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 35°F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Wednesday): 0.01 inch; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Wednesday): TBA

Normal Temperatures for October 30 - High: 49F; Low: 30F
Next Update: Friday, October 31, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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