Friday, March 7, 2014 9:15 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Best of Warm Surge to Come Late Weekend

Update: Icy Start to Day

A line of freezing rain and sleet showers have been moving through central Minnesota during the pre-dawn (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop ) . You can tell the precipitation is in the form of freezing rain by the sideways S and double arrow symbols on the (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop). This line is easing southward as the cold front (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) comes through. Unfortunately, it's just enough freezing drizzle and freezing rain to put a complete layer on all pavement and even snow pack. Also, temperatures did not make it above freezing overnight, so we are likely to see temperatures only around 30 over the next couple of hours, then falling back into the 20's. So, any untreated surface will have a coating of ice, making it quite the skating rink. Conditions will ease when the pavement is treated and even more when the sun breaks out later today. Until then, it will be treacherous in spots. Note the large number of accidents on MnDOT's travel map.

Dirty Air Problems As Well

The eastern two-thirds of Minnesota are under an air pollution health alert today. Along and in the vicinity of a cold front that just came through, air particles are producing air-quality indices above 100. That means that sensitive groups of people with a history of heart and lung problems, asthma, kids, and the elderly should avoid being outside until the winds pick up this afternoon and blow cleaner air into the region. This advisory includes Brainerd, St. Cloud, the Twin Cities, Rochester, Duluth, and Virginia.

Otherwise A Bit Cooler, but More Sun Later

This cold front will bring in cleaner and slightly cooler air, which also will allow better mixing near the ground. So, I expect a lot more sunshine to develop today. Northwest winds will be strong for a while this morning (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop), with speeds of 15-25 MPH common. However, without any recent snow, there won't be much in the way of blowing and drifting. Look for temperatures to kick up a few degrees to the lower 30's after the cold front passes, then settle back into the 20's.

We will have this relatively cooler interlude, although compared to the past couple of days, the only difference will be some colder low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night. We could make a run at 0 again by tomorrow morning and see lows in the single digits Saturday evening. Look for highs tomorrow to return to the 20's, only with less wind than today.

Next Warm Surge Begins Sunday

The next system due to start the heat pump will begin doing its work on Saturday night. In this case, the warm air appears to be even drier than what we had, so I don't expect any precipitation with the warm front pushing through Saturday night and Sunday morning. The big question is whether we can get the warmth all the way to the ground or will the cold air remain trapped, keeping temperatures down. The warm air push looks a bit stronger in this weekend's case, so I'm going for middle to upper 30's Sunday and 40's on Monday. That crucially depends on few clouds and enough wind to help push the cold air along.

Not As Cold Midweek As I Had Earlier Thought

We should see another minor cool down for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Highs may only be around freezing on Tuesday and in the 20's again Wednesday. The overall steering winds will turn more to the west-northwest. However, the long-range forecasts don't have any really cold air in west central Canada, so we could be back on the temperature uphill as early on Thursday. The best news is that there doesn't appear to be any major storm system in the forecast for the next week, so we won't be adding to the snow cover.

See Forecast Below

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS HPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State Pacific RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Atlantic Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• Yesterday's Regional severe weather reports from NWS Chanhassen
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
  Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey
• US weather related deaths

Ground and Air Travel

• Minnesota (high bandwidth)
• Minnesota (faster loading)
• Iowa
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud April 2012 weather summary.
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• Minnesota State Climatology drought report from MN State Climatology Office (updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Air Quality Health Advisory Through This Afternoon

Friday 3/7: Cloudy this morning, then clearing this afternoon. Turning windy. Temperatures holding between 28 and 32 this morning, falling into the 20's this afternoon. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH early, then becoming NW 15-25 MPH by late morning, 10-20 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10% after 7 AM.

Friday Night: Clear, diminishing wind, and colder. Low: near 0. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday 3/8: Sunny to partly cloudy, and continued seasonably cool. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday Night: Clear early, some high clouds late, becoming breezy, and not quite as cold. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: SW 5 MPH evening, 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 3/9: Sunny, breezy, and actually warm for this time of year. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear and not as cool. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 3/10: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warm again. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Monday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and mild with a slight chance of a snow shower. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday 3/11: Partly sunny and not quite as warm. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Tuesday Night: Clear and colder. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: light. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 3/12: Partly sunny and a bit colder. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Milder again on Thursday. Highs above freezing

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Friday through Saturday, 7 Saturday night, 6 Sunday through Monday, 5 Monday night, 4 Tuesday, 3 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Thursday.

Yesterday's High: 28°F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 25°F
St. Cloud Storm Total Precipitation: 0.08 inch/0.1 inch ice; SCSU Precipitation: 0.07 inch/0.1 inch ice

Normal Temperatures for March 7 - High: 34°F; Low: 16°F
Next Update: Monday, March 10, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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