Local Forecast


Thursday, July 24, 2014 4:07 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Some Chances of Storms (Mostly South??) Tonight and Tomorrow

Did You Notice That the Faucet is Now Off?

On top of another warm and dry day with highs in the seasonable lower 80's (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany), yesterday marked the 9th straight day that the St. Cloud Airport has not had any rainfall. While there have been some close misses, that's the longest dry streak we've seen since March 8-17. If we get through today without any measurable rain, it will be the longest dry streak since November 17-December 1 of last year. That's when we were worried about having too little rainfall. The July rainfall total in St. Cloud has been 0.86 inch, 1.66 inches short of average.

If we are going to see substantial rain in the next 5-6 days, it will come late tonight into tomorrow. The next surge of warm sticky air is already triggering some showers and thunderstorms from Montana into the western Dakotas and southern Canada (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu and NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). There are a few showers in the eastern Dakotas, so we will see some morning clouds at times, but most likely, the rain showers will shrivel as they move into the very dry air over us. Our best chance of showers and thunderstorms will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the main push of the warm front moves in. However, it is possible that most of the rain could end up missing us to the south.

After the wave of storms pushes out tomorrow morning, we will again see that warm plume of air aloft that played a key role in temperatures breaking 90 Sunday and Monday. However, the difference will be that we are still stuck on the cool side of the warm front. So, I think we will likely remain dry on Friday from late morning through the afternoon. It will be quite humid, but a lot of leftover clouds will limit high temperatures to around 80.

We could see some more showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, but it won't be as good of a chance as early Friday. A weak front will come through on Friday night, eventually allowing some drier, if not cooler air to push into Minnesota.

The weekend still looks like that push from one extreme to the other. Saturday still looks hot with highs around 90, but with low humidity and a strong west-northwest wind. On Sunday, an upper-level low pressure system will push into Minnesota, producing a lot of clouds and maybe a few rain showers. With luck, we may see a few sunny breaks and fewer clouds in the afternoon, but highs will be kept to the lower 70's at best. There will continue to be a strong wind, this time from the north.

After that, we will settle into some seasonably warm and dry weather for Monday and Tuesday with lows near 50 and highs in the upper 70's to near 80.

The hot and dry conditions in the West have led to an active fire season with one Washington state fire as the largest in history. There are also huge fires in the Northwest Territories as well as most of the western Canadian Provinces.

See Forecast Below

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Forecast:

Thursday 7/24: Sunny in the morning, sunshine through high clouds in the afternoon, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear and warmer with noticeable humidity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday 7/25: Chance of an early shower or thunderstorm, then partly to mostly cloudy and becoming more humid. Chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm as well. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: becoming W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Saturday 7/26: Sunny, breezy, very warm, and drier. A slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 88 and 92. Winds: WNW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms late at night. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday 7/27: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few stray showers, some sunny breaks in the afternoon, breezy and much cooler. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear with diminishing wind and quite chilly. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 7/28: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, not as breezy, and seasonably cool. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Sunny and seasonable Tuesday. Lows in the 50's. Highs near 80.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Thursday, 7 Thursday night and Friday, 6 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night, 4 Sunday, 3 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 82°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 54F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Wednesday): None

Normal Temperatures for July 24 - High: 83F; Low: 59F
Next Update: Friday, July 25, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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