Thursday, May 23, 2013 4:29 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

"Here Comes the Sun"

Last Day of Rain...Really

The spotty drizzle became a steady light rain again yesterday afternoon, producing yet another 0.12 inch of rain at the St. Cloud Regional Airport (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). That's the seventh straight day with measurable rainfall. The record for consecutive rainy days is 12 days, set in late May and early June 1991. This is the 37th streak of at least 7 days, with the last one in July of 2002.

This brings the total rainfall since Friday to 3.72 inches. The average rainfall for the entire month of May is 2.95 inches. This rainfall is also more than St. Cloud got in the entire months of June through December of last year. However, we are not even close to cracking the top 10 of May rainfall, which includes last May's 8.76 inches. Those drier months were mainly responsible for the ground water shortage coming into this spring (the US Drought Monitor will be updated later this morning).

However, the clouds have finally given way. The infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu shows that the clouds have pushed to the south and east, so we will actually see a good supply of sunshine today. With all of the recent moisture, there will be some afternoon clouds mixing with the sun, but high temperatures will climb well into the 60's, a good 10-15 warmer than the past two days. Skies will remain clear tonight, so temperatures will drop. Some of the dew points in southern Canada are in the 20's, but I think that the leftover moisture on the ground will limit our low temperatures to the middle to upper 30's. Frost is quite possible from Brainerd and points north.

Tomorrow, we'll see a good supply of sun again with highs in the upper 60's to near 70.

More Clouds, Maybe Some Showers Saturday and Sunday

However, by late Friday, we will find ourselves on the north edge of a push of warmer air towards the Northern Plains. Unfortunately, it looks like the warm air will stall out across Nebraska and Iowa, putting us on the cool side of the developing warm front. This could produce some showers and thunderstorms, but in this case, it looks like most of the moisture will be trapped in the cooler air, so it will be hard to generate thunderstorms. Unfortunately, that will create a lot of low clouds that will knock temperatures down again. So, I'm only looking for some spotty rain or drizzle Friday night and Saturday, but I think high temperatures will get stuck in the upper 50's to near 60 on Saturday.

There might be a slightly higher chance of a few thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning, then look for another day with a lot of clouds and perhaps a bit more sun. I don't see any all day rainfall either Saturday or Sunday, so there will be plenty of chances for outdoor activities. We could even see some sunny breaks in the afternoon, especially on Sunday. However, don't expect the feel of summer as highs will remain in the cool 60's at best.

This set-up will continue through early next week with a slow warming trend. There may be a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms after the holiday weekend and temperatures should slowly trend upward in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

At least the ice is finally out on most Minnesota lakes.

The pollen levels will jump today and tomorrow as all of that rain combined with the sunshine will allow the plants to get excited. Look for pollen to be in the high category today and tomorrow.

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS HPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State Pacific RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Atlantic Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• Yesterday's Regional severe weather reports from NWS Chanhassen
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
  Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey
• US weather related deaths

Road Reports

• Minnesota Road Reports
• North Dakota Road Reports
• South Dakota Road Reports
• Wisconsin Road Reports
• Iowa Road Reports
• FlightAware.com's live flight tracking page (for flight delays)
• FlightAware.com flight cancellations

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud April 2012 weather summary.
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• Minnesota State Climatology drought report from MN State Climatology Office (updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Thursday 5/23: Sunny to partly cloudy and drying out. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Thursday Night: Clear and cooler. Maybe some fog. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: light SE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday 5/24: Sunny with some afternoon high clouds and more seasonable. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Friday Night: Cloudy with spotty rain or drizzle. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Saturday 5/25: Mostly cloudy with some spotty rain or drizzle. Cool. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a better chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Sunday 5/26: Early shower or thunderstorm, then mostly cloudy with perhaps a few sunny breaks in the afternoon. Breezy but still cool. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 5/27: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm. Breezy and warmer. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Extended: Better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday?? Highs in the 70's. Lows in the 50's.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Thursday through Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 51°F (set at 8 PM); Yesterday's Daytime High: 50°F; This Morning's Low (through 5 AM): 43°F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Precipitation (Through 4 AM): 0.12 inch; SCSU Precipitation (Through 4 AM): TBA; St. Cloud Airport Rainfall Since Friday: 3.78 inches (average May rainfall: 2.95 inches)

Normal Temperatures for May 23 - High: 71°F; Low: 46°F
Next Update: Friday, May 24 8:00 AM (at conference early next week)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.