Local Forecast


Tuesday, May 3, 2016 1:44 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Sunnier, Dry, With a Late Week Warming Trend
Discussion Links Forecast

We will continue with the seasonably mild weather through the first half of the week. There is a cold front in Ontario and Manitoba poised to move through Minnesota today. That system has some clouds in North Dakota and Minnesota (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) but I've seen no reports of rainfall as yet in either Minnesota (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop) or southeastern Manitoba (see Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop). The front will come through early this morning, but the air will remain warm enough to support a high in the lower 70's. There might be a few stray afternoon showers as the cooler air comes in aloft. We will also have very strong west-northwest winds blowing at 15-30 MPH with some higher gusts.

Behind that cool front, slightly cooler air will move in for tomorrow. Lows will drop to around 40 or the upper 30's with a bit of a northwest wind. Tomorrow, look for highs to remain in the 60's.

However, the brunt of this cool air will push into eastern Canada and the Northeastern US. That will again allow warmer air into Minnesota. After a cool start, Thursday's high will climb well into the 70's and perhaps make a run at 80 degrees. Friday will likely be the warmest day of the season so far with a high in the 80's. Another cool front temporarily drops slightly cooler air into Minnesota on Saturday, so highs will hang around 70. However, we could see 80 degrees again on Sunday.

Weather systems will be creeping their way across the country with major storms in the West and along the East Coast. The storm that will stay in the west late week into Saturday shows some signs of moving out into the Plains states by early next week. If it comes far enough northward, we could have at least a chance at some significant rainfall early next week. Until then, however, the dry air from Canada will keep us mostly rain-free.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Tuesday 5/3: Sunny in the morning, mixed clouds and sun with a chance of a shower in the afternoon, windy, and still seasonably warm. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: WNW 15-30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Tuesday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and a shade cooler. Low: between 38 and 42. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Wednesday 5/4: Sunny, breezy, and a shade cooler. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear and cool. Low: between 38 and 42. Winds: NE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Thursday 5/5: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clear, breezy, and much milder. A slight chance of a rain shower. Low: between 52 and 57. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 5/6: Sunny, breezy, and summer-like. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and not quite as mild. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 5/7: Sunny, breezy, and not quite as warm. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Sunny and warmer again Sunday with a slight chance of a late day shower. High in the 70's to near 80.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Monday and Monday night, 6 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 5 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 4 Thursday and Thursday night, 3 Friday, 2 Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 68F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 44F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None

Normal Temperatures for May 3 - High: 65F; Low: 40F
Next Update: Wednesday, May 4, 2016 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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