Friday, August 1, 2014 3:19 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Summer Weather Continues in Force Through Weekend

We have now arrived at above average temperatures over the past two days with highs topping out in the middle 80's (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). There hasn't been quite as much sunshine as some haze from fires in the Canadian Northwest Territories near Great Slave Lake blew into Minnesota.

However, you can see that any major push of thunderstorms has been shunted northward into the Canadian Rockies of Alberta (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). That's where the strongest flow over more humid air over the warm, but dry air has been diverted.

We will continue with the generally warm and dry conditions into the weekend with only a slight increase in humidity. We will continue with more clouds in the afternoon than the mornings and there will be a small chance of late afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, but the general dry air near the ground will limit the threat. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80's again today with a chance of a 90-degree reading tomorrow afternoon. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50's to middle 60's.

The weather pattern will eventually change as we head into the new week. The hot and more humid air will become better established over the Dakotas, so the same boundary now over Alberta will push into Minnesota next week. That means we will have a better chance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The bulk of the storms should develop overnight and there will be a threat of severe weather as well as heavy rainfall. While southern Minnesota and northern Iowa are highlighted for this heavy rain, the position of the weather systems 3-5 days down the road could push the heavier rainfall our way (or even further to the south). There should be more clouds during the daytime, so highs will be limited to the lower half of the 80's at best and perhaps stay in the upper 70's. You will notice the humidity increase as well.

Right now, the US computer forecast is predicting a stalled storm system to develop over Minnesota and the Dakotas by the middle of next week. I don't trust a system like that this far into the forecast, so I'm going to stay with the idea of showers and thunderstorms. I'm not sure of the timing of any cooling trend towards the second half of next week.

For the weekend, the heavy rains in west Texas and the Southern Rockies (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will continue. There are flash flood watches out now for southern New Mexico into the El Paso area, with daily rainfall expected throughout the weekend over Arizona, New Mexico, and into west Texas. The rainfall amounts aren't high, but these are desert soils which don't limit runoff well, so the flood threat will continue.

The second tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Bertha, has formed to the east of Barbados. Top winds are 45 MPH. The storm is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it hits Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Dominica by tomorrow. There could be a threat in Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and the Virgin Islands over the weekend.

The July St. Cloud weather summary shows nearly average temperatures for the month, thanks to our drier and warmer period over the second half of the month. About the only statistic that is cooler than average is the lack of 90-degree days so far (only 2, compared to the average 7 through the end of July). The drying this month is just as big a story with July likely ending up with 1.25 inch. That's less than the average for March. Despite that, the growing season rainfall and rainfall for the first 7 months of the year both rank in the top 10.

See Forecast Below

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• NWS HPC three-day steering wind forecast
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Snow Analyses

Satellite

• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Colorado State RAMDIS Menu
• Colorado State Western IR Loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western Water Vapor Loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• NWS wind chill chart
• CDC Cold Weather Survival Checklists
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Winter Weather Page
• NWS Current National watch warning map
• NWS Chanhassen Regional watch warning map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• Yesterday's Regional severe weather reports from NWS Chanhassen
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• St. Cloud MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• Minnesota MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire danger
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• US Average Weather Related Deaths from NWS St. Louis
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
  Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey
• US weather related deaths

Ground and Air Travel

• Minnesota (high bandwidth)
• Minnesota (faster loading)
• Iowa
• North Dakota
• South Dakota
• Wisconsin
• Manitoba
• Ontario
• Airline Flight Delays and Cancellations from FlightAware.com

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• St. Cloud April 2012 weather summary.
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's US Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Tuesdys)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Friday 8/1: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon with a chance of a late shower. Very warm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and mild. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: W 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 8/2: Sunny in the morning, partly sunny in the afternoon, hot, with a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 87 and 92. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly clear and mild. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 8/3: Partly sunny and very warm with a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly clear and more humid with a chance of a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 8/4: More clouds with some sunny breaks, more humid, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly early morning and middle to late afternoon. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday Night: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms with severe weather possible. Very humid. Low: between 62 and 66. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Tuesday 8/5: Lots of clouds, maybe some sun, warm and sticky with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Stormy period with more showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday. Highs in lower 80's. Lows in the 60's. Cooling off second half of next week?

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Thursday through Friday, 7 Friday night and Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday, 2 Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yesterday's High: 86°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 61°F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Thursday): None

Normal Temperatures for August 1 - High: 82°F; Low: 58°F
Next Update: Monday, August 4, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.