Local Forecast

Tuesday, October 25, 2016 3:36 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


"Here Comes the Rain Again"

Add in some sunshine and take the wind down a few MPH and seasonably cool conditions can feel rather pleasant. We only had a few clouds to dim the sunshine yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), so high temperatures in the lower half of the 50's (see UCAR 4 PM surface chart) felt pleasant. This morning isn't quite as cool as yesterday morning so far (St. Cloud's coolest morning of the season so far with a low of 27 degrees; see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). Temperatures have been hovering in the 30's for a good chunk of the night (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart), but the high clouds and east winds have helped to keep temperatures up a bit. The exception is along the Iron Range and the Boundary Waters where temperatures have again fallen into the 20's. Perhaps we will see Embarrass or some other town drop below 20 degrees once again.

However, the increase in high clouds is a sign of our upcoming weather. Swept up in the southwest winds ahead of the strong storm off the British Columbia coast is a storm system in Arizona (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu),that will be pushed into the Dakotas and Minnesota by tonight. There is a decent amount of moisture in Oklahoma (total precipitable water of three-quarters of an inch to a bit over an inch on the College of Dupage PW chart) with this system, so this storm has the potential of producing a soaking rain over Minnesota from late this afternoon until the early morning hours tomorrow.

Thursday will be a brighter day. We'll begin with some thick frost and temperatures in the lower 30's, but see readings climb back above average into the upper 50's in the afternoon.

As a series of storms continues to affect the West Coast, another storm system will get caught up in the southwest flow to the east of it and push towards the Northern Plains by Friday. We will see some warmer air pumped in for a while, followed by a cold front passing Friday evening. However, it looks like there will be far less moisture available for this Friday storm, so I only have a chance of some scattered rain showers late Friday or Friday night. Highs will climb into the 60's with at least partial sunshine.

Cooler air will push in behind the cold front and that cool air will be unstable. So, we will have sunshine mixed with a lot of clouds on Saturday. Highs will be limited to the low to middle 50's and there will be a strong northwest wind. We could see a chilly low Saturday night, with temperatures bottoming out in the 20's or near 30 on Sunday morning, then another warm up will begin with readings moderating into at least the middle to upper 50's on Sunday and possibly warmer on Monday.

With the strong storm off the West Coast, heavy rain is possible this week with the highest mid-week rain totals likely along the northern California and southern Oregon coast.

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Confidence Level: "The Next 2 Weeks Will Seem Like Three Months"

Tuesday 10/25: Thickening clouds with rain or showers in the afternoon. Breezy, but cool. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% in the morning, 70% by mid-afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Steady rain through early morning, tapering to occasional rain showers or drizzle late at night. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 90%.

Wednesday 10/26: Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain or sprinkles, breezy, and even chillier. Maybe a few sunny breaks by late in the day. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: E 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%

Wednesday Night: Partial clearing with areas of fog forming. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: S 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 10/27: Some early fog, then partly sunny and more seasonable. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Thursday Night: Partly clear, and not quite as cool. Maybe some fog. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "There Will Be Life After This Election"

Friday 10/28: Mixed sun and clouds with a chance of a rain shower, breezy, and warmer. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Friday Night: Maybe an evening rain shower, then partial clearing, breezy, and continued relatively mild. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 10-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "There Will Be Intelligent Life After This Election"

Saturday 10/29: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy, and cooler. High: between 52 and 56. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Extended: Becoming warmer again Sunday into Monday.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 6 Thursday and Thursday night, 4 Friday and Friday night, 3 Saturday, 2 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 54F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 34F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): None

Normal Temperatures for October 25 - High: 52F; Low: 32F
Next Update: Wednesday, October 26 8:00 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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