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Monday, February 6, 2012 6:18 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Synopsis: A Taste of Winter Later This Week
During this week, we will actually have an interlude of really winter cold for the first time in a while. The whole area of arctic air that was plaguing Alaska and northwest Canada for much of January has now been pushed temporarily to the north of Alaska by a strong warm surge that has temperatures above zero in nearly all of Alaska this morning and readings in the teens to 30's in central Alaska on the NWS
HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map. That's only about 70-90 degrees warmer than it was in that region about 10 days ago.
That cold air will be pushed southeastward by the steering winds which are now blowing from north to south across central Canada (see water vapor on Hemispheric Products from the College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), which will allow the mother lode of frigid air to push into Hudson Bay and Labrador later this week. We will get into a piece of that colder air during the second half of the work week, but it will be merely a glancing blow. Look for high temperatures to stay in the teens both Friday and Saturday with perhaps one or two sub-zero lows.
In the meantime, we will remain warmer than normal through early Thursday. After a Sunday relapse of low clouds, those low clouds are finally moving out of the area. The Colorado
State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product shows that those clouds have been swept mostly into Wisconsin and Iowa, although some of them are drifting northward into places like Pine City. The clearing skies have allowed temperatures to drop into the teens in St. Cloud for the first time since last Monday.
There is a cold front on our doorstep, as can be seen on the NWS
HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map, so we only have one more day to take advantage of the much milder air. Highs will jump well into the 30's and possibly make a run at 40 degrees. There aren't many clouds around the cold front on the infrared loop from the College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu, so we may just see a few flurries tonight. Temperatures tonight will fall back to around 10 degrees, colder than it has been lately, but still a good 5 degrees milder than the average early February low. Tomorrow, the sun will return with seasonably warm temperatures in the low to middle 20's and a good supply of sunshine. We might get close to zero tomorrow night as the winds calm down, but we should see highs temperatures well up in the 20's on Wednesday and possibly cracking freezing on Thursday morning.
Then, we go into our cold period from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. Wind chill will be significant on Thursday night and Friday, holding in the minus teens and perhaps minus 20s. However, the warm-up should begin again on Sunday with highs back into the 20's to lower 30's. We could see highs well into the 30's on Monday, but as was the case in this last mild period, we'll have to keep an eye on the fog developing.
Final Official January Statistics Show....It Was Mild
The average January 2012 temperature is now final with a January 31 low temperature of 31 degrees. That nudges the average January 2012 temperature to 20.3°F, 8.7°F above normal. So, January did remain as the 8th warmest January in St. Cloud records, but came within one-tenth of a degree of tying for 7th place. That average temperature is more typical of the last week of February than January. More importantly, the combination of December 2011 and January 2012 are the second warmest Dec.-Jan. combo in St. Cloud records, only falling short of 1913-1914. You can find more details about our warm January, including the extraordinary number of highs above 45 degrees, and how we finally got some snow in small doses in my January 2012 St. Cloud Weather Summary.
Southern Storm Soaks Lower Mississippi Valley, Buries Colorado
A final summary of the late week storm shows that as much as 2-4 feet of snow fell in the higher terrain of Colorado with 21 inches in some foothill cities like Boulder, a wide swath of a foot of snow across Nebraska, and several reporting stations with as much as 5 inches of snow in Iowa. The 16 inches of snow in Denver broke the February record for single storm snowfall. There were also a widespread 2-5 inches of rain in parts of eastern Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana with even higher amounts in eastern Texas.
You can see the swath of new snowfall on this morning's NWS NOHRSC national snow analysis, but our snow cover has taken a beating with the mild and foggy weather of the past few days.
Links:
Surface
Satellite
Radar
Current Watches/Warnings
Road Reports
Climate
Drought
Forecast: Monday: Mostly sunny and mild this morning, some afternoon clouds and turning breezy. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH in the morning, becoming NW 8-15 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Monday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and cooler with a slight chance of a flurry. Untreated surfaces will turn icy. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: N 8-12 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Tuesday: Sunny, breezy, and not as mild. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Tuesday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and chilly. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: W 4-8 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Wednesday: Sunny, breezy, and milder. High: between 28 and 32. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Wednesday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and mild. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Thursday: Clouding up, turning windy and colder with a slight chance of a flurry. Morning temperatures between 30 and 35, falling back into the 20's during the afternoon. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW 15-25 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Thursday Night: Clear to partly cloudy, breezy, and colder. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Friday: Sunny, breezy, and much colder. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Friday Night: Clear and colder. Low: between -10 and 0. Winds: light. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Saturday: Sunny and not quite as cold. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Saturday Night: Partly clear and not as cold. Low: between 0 and 10. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Sunday: Sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 28 and 32. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to N. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Extended: Even milder next Monday???
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday and Monday night, 7 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 6 Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night and Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Saturday night and Sunday.
Yesterday's High: 30°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM): 17 °F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Airport Precipitation (through 6 AM): None; SCSU Precipitation:
None
2011-2012 St. Cloud Snowfall: 16.2 inches; Normal
2011-2012 Snowfall: 29.2 inches
2011-2012 St. Cloud Days with a Snow Cover: 31 days;
2010-2011 St. Cloud Days with a Snow Cover (thru Feb 6): 79 days
Normal Temperatures for February 3 - High: 24°F;
Low: 4°F
Next Update: Tuesday 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.
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