Local Forecast


Tuesday, October 21, 2014 2:44 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Up and Down Temperatures, But Continued Mainly Milder Than Average

The good weather news will continue for most of the rest of the week. Yesterday was supposed to be a "cooler day," but high temperatures still made their way into the middle 60's (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). We will see slightly cooler conditions today. Temperatures are beginning the day in the middle to upper 30's (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop) and will rebound to at least 60, if not 65 again.

Tomorrow, the next system entering the Pacific Northwest (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will approach, kicking up the southeast winds out of ahead of it. Forecasts right now are being based on a deck of low clouds keepingmore clouds around for the better part of a day. That will limit tomorrow's highs to the upper 50's to around 60.

That Pacific system will have a chance of producing a few rain showers Wednesday night, but I'm not expecting a lot of rain from this system. Once we get rid of the clouds on Thursday morning, we will be set up for even warmer days Thursday through Sunday. Upper 60's are guaranteed with 70's possible Thursday and Friday and likely Saturday and Sunday.

The next cold front after Thursday is expected to move in on Monday. We could have a chance of rain showers, since some long range forecasts are developing a strong storm. However, that's not certain. What appears more likely is that we will see a substantial cool off early next week.

See Forecast Below

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Forecast:

Tuesday 10/21: Sunny, not as breezy, and a bit cooler. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, breezy, and not as cool. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 10/22: Clouding up, breezy, and seasonable. A slight chance of rain showers late. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Milder. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: S 10-15 MPH, shifting to SW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Thursday 10/23: Becoming sunny, breezy, and much warmer. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Thursday Night: Partly clear and a shade cooler. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: W 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 10/24: Sunny and warm again, High: between 66 and 72. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and seasonably mild. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH evening, becoming NW 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 10/25: Sunny, light winds, and even toastier. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and seasonably mild. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/26: A slight chance of a morning shower, then partly sunny and continued warm. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: S 5-15 MPH, becoming WNW 5-15 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Cloudy and turning cooler Monday with a chance of rain showers.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 9 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 6 Thursday, 5 Thursday night through Saturday, 4 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 66°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM): 38°F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Monday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Monday): None

Normal Temperatures for October 21 - High: 54F; Low: 33F
Next Update: Wednesday, October 22, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast