St. Cloud State University

Friday, July 3, 2009 4:54 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Storms To Our South Today Through Tomorrow, But Dry and Seasonable Weekend Here

It's yet another mostly clear and seasonably cool morning, as you can see on the UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop. It's also noticeably humid as dew points have climbed into the middle 50's in the southern half of Minnesota. On the Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour water vapor loop, the old Great Lakes storm has given way as it finally is moving eastward, so there's a lot of clouds on our western doorstep, as you can see on the College of DuPage North Central infrared satellite loop. There are heavy showers and thunderstorms moving through Nebraska on the College of DuPage North Central radar loop, but these storms are already beginning a turn to the southeast. That's where the bulk of these showers and thunderstorms will go today as a weak low pressure system, now in eastern Colorado on the NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map, will slide eastward along the Nebraska-Kansas border during the next day, as you can see on the NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map.

That means that severe thunderstorms will be possible across Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa and heavy rainfall will be possible in South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa. I do have a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm here as there will be a pretty big difference between temperatures in the middle atmosphere and afternoon ground temperatures, meaning that the air will be a little bit on the unstable side, one ingredient for thunderstorms. However, another key ingredient is a process to lift the air; with the front well to the south of Minnesota, I think we will be lacking that lift to get the storms going, so our odds of seeing storms are small. The best chance of storms in Minnesota will be late today in southwestern Minnesota and tonight in southwest and south central Minnesota, but most places to the north of Hwy. 14 won't see any storms.

Central Minnesota will most likely see a few more clouds than we've seen the past couple of days. High temperatures will again rise to the upper 70's today and to around or a little bit warmer than 80 tomorrow. We will likely see low temperatures tonight staying around 60 degrees due to the slightly more humid air over us.

Another weak front system will be hanging around northerm Minnesota on Saturday night and southern Minnesota on Sunday, so I have a slight chance of showers in the forecast. Most likely, however, we will be dry for the entire holiday weekend. I expect more sunshine on Sunday, so look for high temperatures to remain near normal levels, at or a little above 80.

More Humid More Storms Next Week?

Next week, the heat and humidity will get closer to Minnesota. The upper-air low of this week will yield to a more southwest to northeast steering wind pattern by the middle of next week. That has already allowed the area with high temperatures in the 100's or even 110 in southeastern Texas and Louisiana, to build northward with upper 90's seen in southwestern Kansas and most of Oklahoma on Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany. The hot air will stay in place through the weekend, but begin to push further northward next week. That could bring more humid air into central Minnesota by next Tuesday and Wednesday. It's hard to figure out, however, when we'll have a chance of significant rain from showers and thunderstorms as the soupy air gets pulled over the cooler air we've had this week. How much sun we get will also determine whether we'll have highs in the 80's or have a run at the 90's.

Climate Junk

This week's National Drought Mitigation Center's Drought Monitor shows that moderate drought has now spread into the Upper Minnesota River Valley in the Redwood Falls, Granite Falls, and Montevideo area. This week's Minnesota Drought Report from the State Climatology Office shows that these areas missed the thunderstorms from last weekend and are now 5-6 inches behind for this growing season. The continued dry conditions in central and east central Minnesota highlight my June St. Cloud weather summary. Also, the cool weather that dominated the first half of June is highlighted in that report.

The National Weather Service has a nice year-at-a-glance graph of St. Cloud conditions on its St. Cloud climate web page.

Forecast Outage

I'm back again and will be here for a while. My next trip due to my continuing family situation will be in mid-July.

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy
• NWS HPC Short-Range forecast map
• NWS HPC 0-7 day forecast map loop
• US Air and Sports Net MN Wind Chill map
• NWS NOHRSC Upper Midwest snow depth chart

Satellite

• College of DuPage national infrared satellite loop
• College of DuPage national 24-hour water vapor loop
• College of DuPage Canadian infrared satellite loop
• College of DuPage North Central infrared satellite loop
• College of DuPage Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State Pacific RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Atlantic Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC eastern US water vapor loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop
• NWS GOES Geostationary Satellite Menu (Tropics)

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• NWS National Radar Loop
• College of DuPage US radar loop
• College of DuPage North Central radar loop
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• SCSU alumnus Amanda Graning's Winter Weather Page at NWS Duluth
• NWS Duluth wind chill page
• NWS Wind Chill chart
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Twin Cities Winter Weather Page
• NWS Chanhassen current watch warning map
• NWS Storm Prediction Center Current Watch/Warning Map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire map
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• Snowmelt flood potential for Red River Valley
  • Area River Status from North Central River Forecast Center
  • NWS Flood Safety brochure
  • National Flood Insurance Program
• Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com
• post-storm survey

Road Reports

• Minnesota Dept. of Transportation road reports
• Iowa Department of Transportation road reports
• North Dakota Department of Transportation road reports
• South Dakota Department of Transportation road reports
• Wisconsin Department of Transportation road reports

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• January 2009 St. Cloud weather summary
  • St. Cloud Weather Summaries by month
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall table
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals, Records, and Extremes
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page
• NWS National High/Low Temperature Table and 2 Day Forecast

Drought

• Minnesota State Climatology drought report from MN State Climatology Office (updated on Tuesdays and Thursdays)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Friday: Mixed sun and clouds and not quite as warm with a slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy and not quite as cool with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 58 and 62. Winds: light NE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny with a slight chance of a morning sprinkle. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: NW 5-12 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Saturday Night: Partly clear with a slight chance of a shower. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: light N. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday: A mixture of sun and clouds with a slight chance of a shower and continued seasonable. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: light N. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday: Partly sunny and a little warmer. High: between 80 and 85. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only. Your Weather May (and Probably Will) Vary

Monday Night: Partly clear. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: light SE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday: Sunny to partly cloudy, warmer, and more humid. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Turning warmer and more humid next week??? A better chance of storms by mid-week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Friday, 7 Friday night, 6 Saturday and Saturday night, 5 Sunday and Sunday night, 4 Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.
Yesterday's High: 80°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 59°F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Precipitation: None (Airport through 6 AM)
St. Cloud Precipitation (April 1-July 2): 6.47 inches; Normal St. Cloud April-June Precipitation: 9.87 inches
Normal Temperatures for July 3 - High: 81°F; Low: 57°F
Next Update: Monday 6:00 AM or as needed
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department temporary home page.