Local Forecast


Sunday, May 29, 2016 2:42 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Slow Improvement Rest of the Weekend

Discussion Links Forecast

Important Rainfall With Bad Timing

The timing may not have been the best, but the rainfall of the past week has been badly needed. The St. Cloud Airport has picked up 1.17 inches of rain since Monday. That has closed a gap in spring rainfall (since March 1) from two and a quarter inches down to 1.60 inches (5.16 inches actual, 6.76 inches average). Yesterday, the bulk of the rain stayed in northern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, and western Wisconsin since the low pressure system that moved into Minnesota had a large dry slot on its southern and eastern flanks (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). We've still had a lot of persistent clouds and some of the light rain showers have been pulled back into central Minnesota as the low has drifted northeastward (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). All of the clouds have kept temperatures down in the 60's for the second straight day.

Slow Improvement Begins With A Little Sun, Fewer Showers Today

There will be an improving weather trend as this low over Minnesota nudges northeastward over the rest of the weekend. That will finally allow some drier air to push into Minnesota. Today, our best chance of some sunshine will be from late this morning through early afternoon. The early morning leftover showers will dry up, allowing this sunshine. The low will remain close enough to us to allow a changeable afternoon sky and some isolated afternoon showers. The sun will push high temperatures back into the upper 70's to near 80. The best chance of those afternoon showers will be in Wisconsin, where they could even be an isolated funnel cloud or a brief tornado touchdown, since again, there were a couple of sightings in northwest Iowa and eastern South Dakota yesterday.

Memorial Day Best Weather of the Weekend

As promised, tomorrow will be the nicest day of the holiday weekend. We will have the most sunshine with temperatures climbing into the 80's. There will still be some instability clouds and a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm.

Next Storm to Drop Monday Night-Wednesday Rain

However, in this busy weather pattern, the next storm, now moving ashore into British Columbia (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will push into Montana by Tuesday and Minnesota by Wednesday. In advance of that storm, the flow of stickier air will produce a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night with lingering rain showers on Tuesday. There will be some chance of severe weather on Tuesday, although we may remain too far into the cooler air to see it. There will be the potential for another half inch to inch of rainfall over a wide area.

The upper air low will drag a cool pocket of air into Minnesota for the middle portion of the week. So, highs will be limited to the lower 70's Tuesday and Wednesday and may not get out of the 60's on Thursday.

Finally, some drier air will push in late in the week, so we have a chance of seeing more sunshine Friday into next Saturday. Highs will climb back to the more typical 70's to begin June.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Dumping Carolina Rain

The second tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season (I had this wrong yesterday), Bonnie, has developed near the South Carolina coast (large picture from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu; close-up loop from NWS/Satellite Services Division). Top winds are 40 miles per hour. Thunderstorms from Bonnie have already pushed into South Carolina, leaving the center poorly organized. Heavy rainfall is likely from the South Carolina coast northward into Pennsylvania and New Jersey during the rest of the weekend.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Sunday 5/29: Cloudy in the morning with a few lingering showers or drizzle, then mixed clouds and sun with a chance of an isolate afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Still humid. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear and less humid. Areas of fog possible by morning. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 5/30: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, and less humid. A slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: S 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday Night: Clouding up with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 80%.

Tuesday 5/31: Cloudy with spotty showers or drizzle. Cooler. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Tuesday Night: Good chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, then partial clearing, breezy, and beginning to dry out late at night. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: SE evening, becoming W 8-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Wednesday 6/1: Some morning sunshine, mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Breezy, and seasonable. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: W 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and cooler. Maybe a sprinkle. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 6/2: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and cooler. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Returning to more average temperatures (70's) late in the week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 6 Sunday through Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday

Yesterday's High: 64F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 60F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Sunday): 0.07 inch; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Sunday): TBA

Normal Temperatures for May 29 - High: 72F; Low: 48F
Next Update: Tuesday, May 31, 2016 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast