Local Forecast


Tuesday, November 25, 2014 6:45 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Back to the Deep Freeze for Thanksgiving Week

While temperatures will be riding up and down for much of this week, we will finish November with the same type of cold temperatures that have dominated much of the month. We held on to freezing temperatures through the early morning hours yesterday (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations), but readings went downhill from there. During the daylight hours, the temperature began at 22 degrees and fell back into the teens for most of the day. The strong northwest wind frequently gusted to 30-35 MPH (top wind gust: 35 MPH at 9:57 AM), keeping wind chills near zero for much of the day (see NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up). And, there were wind-whipped snow showers on and off. The St. Cloud Prison did end up with another 0.2 inch of snow, bringing the November snowfall total to 15.9 inches, still the 10th snowiest November on record.

We will remain in this air mass through Wednesday. The cold air has continued to push in behind the strong storm that moved into Quebec overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). Temperatures have fallen back into the lower teens where the low clouds have remained and into the single digits where skies cleared out (see Colorado State RAMDIS Fog/Reflectivity Product). There is enough wind to produce wind chills in the minus single digits (see NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up). We will at least see some sunshine today, which will allow temperatures during the day to climb back into the 20's. With less wind, it will feel a good deal milder than yesterday.

Overnight, the next storm system leading the next push of cold air will move into Minnesota. This is the same system producing the snow in Montana right now. We will see thickening clouds, which will keep our low temperatures in the teens to near 20. That low pressure system will zip through the eastern Dakotas into Iowa tomorrow, spreading a narrow band of accumulating snow to its north and east. There could be 1-3 inches of accumulation from west central into south central Minnesota from late tonight through midday on Wednesday. We will be on the eastern fringe of that snow, so we could again see a very light accumulation (generally under an inch).

Behind that storm, even colder air will push in. Temperatures will remain in the low to middle 20's with a biting north wind. Temperatures will drop back to near or below zero Wednesday night, then stay in the teens on Thursday.

The next attempt for milder air to push back in begins Thursday evening. Temperatures will fall back to around 5 degrees during the evening, then climb back into the teens by morning. The milder air will have a lot of trouble pushing the cold air near the ground out of the way, so temperatures will rebound into the 20's, but stay there. We could have a lot of low clouds and fog during the late week. That could make for some more difficult travel, but it's too early to be sure.

This mild period will last until a low pressure system tracks across northern Minnesota on Friday night, bringing a reinforcing cold front through on Saturday. Again, there will be the threat of a little bit of light snow, mostly likely in northern Minnesota this time, then we will see temperatures fall back from the upper 20's early Saturday to near 20 by the end of the day. Sunday will be a colder day with highs in the teens.

In this pattern of quick temperature changes, the forecast does get iffier more quickly, so the timing of any front after Friday could easily change. The weather pattern continues to look quite changeable for the first week of December, but we could see more of a west-to-east steering flow, meaning that we won't be quite as cold.

There will be two major trouble spots for travelers in the pre-Thanksgiving period. There will be a second East Coast storm developing in the Southeast today that could bring some heavy rainfall over Atlanta in the next couple of days and push that rain northward tomorrow. The track of this storm is very uncertain, so how much precipitation comes inland into the East Coast air travel hubs is unsure. There is also the possibility of some major snowfall over the mountains of West Virginia and Virginia tomorrow. There's a chance that this snow could spread into or close to the major East Coast cities like Washington, perhaps Philadelphia, the north of New York City, and perhaps Boston. There are winter storm watches out, but again the track of this storm looks to be tricky, so there are no sure things yet.

Otherwise, the new storm pushing into the West Coast will continue to produce heavy rain and heavy mountain snows in Washington, Idaho, and Montana through tomorrow. Over the holiday weekend, the next storm could push this precipitation into Oregon and northern Calfornia.

Other than that, the rest of the country east of the Rockies will be complaining as our cold pushes to their areas, but we'll still be colder.

See Forecast Below

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Forecast:

Tuesday 11/25: Partly sunny, not as breezy, and still December-like. High: between 24 and 28. Winds: W-SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Thickening clouds and not quite as cold. A chance of light snow or flurries late. Low: between 17 and 22. Winds: light evening, becoming NE 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Wednesday 11/26: Cloudy with more occasional light snow, especially in the morning, breezy, and continued cold. Between a dusting and an inch of new snow is possible. High: between 22 and 26. Winds: NE-N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50% in the morning, 30% in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Clearing, slowly diminishing wind, and much colder. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: N-NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 11/27: Sunny, light winds, and very cold. High: between 12 and 16. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Thursday Night: Clouding up with a chance of light snow or flurries, breezy, and not as cold. Low: near 5 early, climbing back into the teens by morning. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Friday 11/28: Cloudy with a chance of lingering light snow in the morning. Occasional flurries or freezing drizzle in the afternoon. High: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Friday Night: Cloudy and milder. Perhaps some dense fog and maybe some freezing drizzle. Temperatures holding between 25 and 30. Winds: light. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Saturday 11/29: Cloudy, breezy, and slowly turning colder. A chance of a little light snow or flurries. Temperatures slowly dropping through the middle and lower 20's. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a chance of occasional light snow or flurries. Colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Sunday 11/30: Mixed clouds and sun and colder. High in the teens. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Extended: Temperature roller coaster continues into next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 6 Thursday, 5 Thursday night, 4 Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 32F (set at 1 AM); Yesterday's Daytime High: 22F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM): 7F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation: Trace/0.2 inch snow; SCSU Precipitation (Through 3 AM Tuesday): TBA

Normal Temperatures for November 25 - High: 33F; Low: 16F
Next Update: Wednesday, November 26, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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