Weather

November 2014 Saint Cloud Weather Summary


Early Season Snowstorm Set Stage for Cold, Wet, White November

Saint Cloud Weather Summary for November 2014 and Fall 2014

The November 10-11 snowstorm ranked as the 13th largest snowstorm in St. Cloud records (13.5 inches) and produced the 6th highest 24-hour snowfall (13.2 inches) and the highest November 24-hour snowfall records (Old record: 12.0 inches on November 21, 1898). However, the snowpack also assisted a persistent cold weather pattern to produce the 9th coldest November in St. Cloud records (22.9°F,7.5°F colder than average).

The deep snowpack causes a good chunk of the sun's energy to be reflected back to space, so it has a chilling effect. Add in a persistent flow pattern that had air from the Arctic Circle drain into most of the Canada and the US east of the Rockies and several cold records were established. There were 4 daily record cold temperatures tied or broken in November. The 5 days with a low of zero or colder was the highest November total since 1991. To compare, there were only 6 combined November days with a low that cold between 1998 and 2013.

There were 12 days that were at least 10 degrees colder than the daily average, including 10 of the 11 days during November 11-21. The high temperature was colder than freezing each day between November 10 and November 21. The 12 straight days below freezing was tied with November 1985 for the 4th longest November streak on record.

The big November snowfall accounted for most of the 17.6 inches of snow, 8.7 inches above the average, and the 8th snowiest November on record and the snowiest November since 1991, which had the Halloween blizzard. The November 10-11 snowfall accounted for the largest November snowfall since Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 1985 (16.8 inches). The 9 November days with measurable snowfall was the most in November since 1996.

The amount of liquid in the November 10-11 snowfall also produced a total of 1.24 inch, setting a daily record for precipitation. The 1.25 inch that fell on November 10-11 was as much as the total rainfall in St. Cloud between October 10 and November 9.

The 1.89 inch of liquid in St. Cloud reversed the trend of the previous two months and pushed the 2014 total precipitation to 35.97 inches. That is already the 6th wettest year and the wettest year since 1983. And, there's still a month to go. The 10 days with at least an inch of liquid in 2014 is tied for 7th most in a year and the most since 1971.

The end of November also marked the end of meteorological fall (September 1-November 30) in St. Cloud. Overall, the average temperature fell to 44.1°F, 0.8°F colder than average. The cold November balanced out the warm September and October.

The number one question is whether this cold and snowy November will lead to a cold and snowy winter. In the short-term, the temperatures are likely to continue to be colder than average through much of this week. However, the longer range forecast has a lot to do with the development of El Nino, an abnormally warm ocean current in the tropical Pacific. The sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been running warmer than average over the past couple of months. But they will have to rise further to develop a true El Nino situation. The reason for the focus on El Nino is that the Northern Plains tend to have warmer than average winters during an El Nino. Also, the southern US tends to be wetter than average during an El Nino.

From a climatological perspective, St. Cloud is now coming off two seasons with more than 75 inches of snow, which rank 4th (2012-2013) and 5th (tie; 2013-2014). This marked the first time that St. Cloud had maintained such heavy snowfall for two straight seasons. The average season-to-season drop in snowfall among following the ten snowiest years is nearly 30 inches. Only last season's snowfall stayed within 3 inches of the previous year. So, the odds favor less snowfall, but that's not a promise.

However, if the snow cover put down on November 10 ends up lasting through the bulk of the winter, we might have a chance at one of the longest streaks on record. The 9 longest streaks (each at least 130 straight days) all began in November. It would only take 3-4 days above freezing to melt what we have, if we don't add any more, but a prolonged snow cover will make this winter seem very long.

 

    November 2014 Statistics
Temperatures (°F)
November 2014
Normal
November Average High Temperature (°F)
31.1
39.0
November Average Low Temperature (°F)
14.7
21.7
Mean Temperature for November (°F)
22.9*
30.4
November Extremes
Temperature(°F)
Date
Warmest High Temperature for November 2014 (°F)
57
November 2
Coldest High Temperature for November 2014 (°F)
8
November 27
Warmest Low Temperature for November 2014 (°F)
39
November 3
Coldest Low Temperature for November 2014 (°F)
-7 (set daily record; see below)
November 21
*9th coldest November on record    
Record Temperatures in November 2014
Temperature(°F)
Date
Old Record
Daily Record Cold High
18°F (tied)
November 18
tied record with 1894
Daily Record Cold Average
10°F (tied)
November 16
tied record with 1959
Daily Record Cold Low
-6°F (tied)
November 15
tied record with 1933
 
-7°F
November 21
-3°F in 2000
Temperature Thresholds
Number of Days
Normal
November 2014 Days with High Temperatures <= 32°F
18
9.9
November 2014 Days with Low Temperatures <= 32°F
26
25.7
November 2014 Days with Low Temperatures <= 0°F
5
1.5
Precipitation (in)
November 2014
Normal
November 2014 Precipitation (in)
1.89
1.38
2014 Total Precipitation (in)
35.97$ (+9.06 from average)
26.91
$Already the 6th wettest year in St. Cloud records    
Precipitation Thresholds
Number of Days
Normal
November 2014 Days with Measurable (>= 0.01 inch) Precipitation
10
6.6
November 2014 Days with >= 0.10 inch Precipitation
3
3.0
November 2014 Days with >= 0.25 inch Precipitation
2
1.5
November 2014 Days with >= 0.50 inch Precipitation
1
0.7
November 2014 Days with >= 1.00 inch Precipitation
1
0.2
November Extremes
Precipitation (in)
Date
Most Daily Precipitation in November 2014
1.24 (set daily record; see below)
November 10
 
Record Precipitation in November 2014
Precipitation (in)
Date
Old Record
Daily Record Precipitation
1.24 inch
November 10
0.67 inch in 1998
Snowfall (in)
November 2014
Normal
November 2014 St. Cloud Reformatory Snowfall (in)
17.6#
8.9
2014-2015 St. Cloud Reformatory Snowfall (1 Oct 2014 - 30 Nov 2014)
17.6
9.6
#8th snowiest November on record    
Snowfall Thresholds
Number of Days
Normal
November 2014 Days with Measurable (>= 0.1 inch) Snowfall
9
5.7
November 2014 Days with >= 1.0 inch Snowfall
2
2.6
November 2014 Days with >= 2.0 inch Snowfall
1
1.5
November 2014 Days with >= 5.0 inch Snowfall
1
0.5
November Extremes
Snowfall (in)
Date
Most St. Cloud Reformatory Daily Snowfall in November 2014
13.2 inch (set daily and monthly records; see below)
November 10
Record Snowfall in November 2014
Snowfall (in)
Date
Old Record
Daily Record Snowfall
13.2 inches
November 10
4.3 inches in 1946
November Daily Record Snowfall
13.2 inches
November 10
12.0 inches on Nov.21,1898
Fall (September 1-November 30) 2014 Statistics
Temperatures (°F)
Fall 2014
Normal
Average Fall High Temperature (°F)
54.3
55.3
Average Fall Low Temperature (°F)
34.0
34.5
Mean Temperature for Fall (°F)
44.1
44.9

 

Liquid Equivalent Precipitation (in)
2014
Normal
Fall Precipitation (in)
6.60
7.33
2014 Total Precipitation (January 1-November 30) (in)
23.51
26.91
Snowfall (in)
Fall 2014
Normal
2014-2015 Seasonal Snowfall (1 Oct 2014 - 30 Nov 2014)
17.6#
9.6

#9th snowiest fall

The " Year After" St. Cloud's Snowiest Seasons
Year After Snowiest Seasons Snowfall in following season Difference from average Snowfall the previous season Rank of snowiest season Difference in snowfall between two seasons
1965-1966 25.5 IN -16.4 IN 87.9 IN 1 -62.4 IN
1937-1938 38.0 IN -3.9 IN 84.5 IN 2 -46.5 IN
1951-1952 56.5 IN +14.6 IN 82.0 IN 3 -25.5 IN
2013-2014 75.5 IN +32.6 IN 78.5 IN 4 -3.0 IN
1917-1918 26.5 IN -15.4 IN 75.5 IN 5 (tie) -49.0 IN
2014-2015 ???   75.5 IN 5 (tie)  
1928-1929 51.3 IN +9.4 IN 69.6 IN 7 -18.3 IN
1969-1970 47.6 IN +5.7 IN 66.9 IN 8(tie) -19.3 IN
1979-1980 44.2 IN +2.3 IN 66.9 IN 8 (tie) -22.7 IN
2011-2012 27.4 IN -14.5 IN 66.1 IN 10 -36.7 IN
1975-1976 53.8 IN +11.9 IN 65.4 IN 11 -11.6 IN
Average St. Cloud Snowfall: 41.9 IN Average decrease between 2 seasons: 29.5 inches
Consecutive November Days with 32 degree high or Colder
Rank Days Period
1 14 November 11-24, 1911
2 (tie) 13 November 18-30, 1886
2 (tie) 13 November 13-25, 1900
4 (tie) 12 November 19-30, 1985
4 (tie) 12 November 10-21, 2014
6 (tie) 11 November 1-11, 1991
6 (tie) 11 November 18-28, 1996
8 (tie) 10 November 21-30, 1898
8 (tie) 10 November 18-27, 1921
8 (tie) 10 November 14-23, 1927
8 (tie) 10 November 21-30, 1940
8 (tie) 10 November 15-24, 1997
8 (tie) 10 November 14-23, 2000

 

Historic temperature data provided courtesy of the Saint Cloud National Weather Service Office, and NOAA/NWS
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Send comments to: raweisman@stcloudstate.edu