Local Forecast


Tuesday, June 30, 2015 4:16 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Slightly Cooler(!) and Drier(?) Midweek

Discussion Links Forecast

Large Hail in Eastern Minnesota Yesterday Afternoon

A low pressure system moved from the Canadian Prairies to Upper Michigan yesterday (see water vapor loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). As it pushed through Minnesota, it triggered some severe thunderstorms during the afternoon. There was hail between 1 and 3 inches (softball-sized) in diameter and wind gusts up to 60 MPH with these storms as they moved mainly within 30 miles of the Wisconsin border from Duluth to LaCrescent. St. Cloud did get clipped by these storms at around 7 PM, but all the area received was 0.04 inch of rain.

Next Storm Stays to Our West, So We Stay Storm-Free (??!!)

Slightly cooler and drier air has moved in behind the storm. Most dew points from northern Minnesota northwestward are in the 50's (yellow) with pockets in the 40's in Manitoba and Ontario.

It looks like another storm developing in Alberta (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) is poised to spread showers and thunderstorms into Minnesota today. However, the high pressure over northern Manitoba (see NWS WPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) is stronger than this next storm, so the low will track further to the southwest across South Dakota and Nebraska over the next day. That will keep the showers and thunderstorms associated with it in the central and eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, and a bit of southwest Minnesota.

So, look for sunshine dimmed by some high clouds at times today. We may also see some smoke from forest fires from northern Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Northwest Territories. So, it is unlikely that we see complete sunshine. Temperatures will back off a little to around 80 degrees today and it will feel slightly drier than yesterday. As the system continues to southwest tonight, we may see some high clouds and a persistent east breeze, so low temperatures will again hang in the upper 50's to near 60. I have a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the forecast in case the storm to our west is a bit further to the east than forecast.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be a repeat of today, except temperatures will be a shade cooler, staying mainly in the middle to upper 70's on Wednesday and around 80 on Thursday.

Heating Up for the Weekend???

By the weekend, a chunk of the really hot air out west, which produced triple-digit highs as close to us as eastern Montana yesterday, will try to push in. The pump of sticky air over the cooler air near the ground doesn't look to be that strong right now, so I only have a small chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night. The push should get high temperatures back into the 80's over the weekend. Depending on how many clouds we have, highs on Sunday could make a run at 90.

The heat looks to be temporary as we will continue to have Canadian air push in over the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota through the Great Lakes with the next surge coming Monday and Tuesday. There could be some strong storms on Sunday night as the cold front comes through, but that's a shaky forecast now.

By the way, I have a lot of question marks in the forecast. That's because the position of the storm track (swinging well northward into British Columbia, then southeastward into the Great Lakes) looks to be pretty certain, with us lying close enough to it to have a threat of showers and thunderstorms. However, the individual storms in this flow are very hard to forecast since some will come from Baja California and some from the Pacific (both areas where we don't get a lot of data). Thus, this shaky forecast.

Overall, however, we will continue the drier trend that has slowed the heavy rainfall from May and the first half of June.

 

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Tuesday 6/30: Sunshine through high clouds, not quite as warm, and a bit drier. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: NE-E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cool. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday 7/1: Mixed clouds and sun with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Not quite as warm. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Wednesday Night: Partly clear and a shade cooler. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 7/2: More sunshine and seasonably warm with a slight chance of an isolated late day shower. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear and drier. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 7/3: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy, warmer and more humid with a slight chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Friday Night: Partly clear, warmer, and more humid. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 7/4: Sunny, breezy, warm, and becoming uncomfortably humid with scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Breezy, warm and humid. A chance of an overnight thunderstorm. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 7/5: Partly sunny, continued warm and sticky. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 86 and 92. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Extended: Good chance of Sunday night showers and thunderstorms??? Warm on Monday, turning a bit cooler Tuesday

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 6 Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night and Friday, 3 Weekend.

Yesterday's High: 83F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 60F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Tuesday): 0.04 inch (0.33 inch since Friday); SCSU Precipitation (Through 4 AM Tuesday): TBA (0.41 inch since Friday)

Normal Temperatures for June 30 - High: 81F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Wednesday, July 1, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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