Local Forecast


Thursday, May 5, 2016 2:43 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Spring Has Sprung
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We have finished our one-day cool interlude. High temperatures were held in the middle 60's yesterday(see 3-day loop of NWS/University at Albany high temperature maps) with those gusty north winds blowing up to 30 MPH (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). There was abundant sunshine to go with those cooler temperatures. Overnight, temperatures have dropped into the 30's (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map).

However, the heat continues just to our west (see 3-day loop of NWS/University at Albany high temperature maps). In fact, that warmer air has begun to move in aloft. There is a small patch of clouds that has moved from Manitoba into Minnesota (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) with even a few stray showers (NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). We will clear out and break into the toasty air once again today with highs climbing to near or even above 80 degrees. The winds will keep blowing tonight, so it will be a much milder night with lows staying in the 50's. Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the year so far with highs climbing well up into the 80's. A few 90's may be possible in the Minnesota River Valley or southwestern Minnesota. The May 6 record warm high is a relatively cool 87 degrees (most records are near or above 90 degrees), so we have a shot at it.

Another cool front will come through late on Friday, but this Canadian air won't have much moisture with it, so any shower chances will be quite small. Temperatures over the weekend will remain spring-y with highs near 70 on Saturday and in the middle 70's Sunday.

Early next week, the storm that is just arriving on the California Coast now (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) will move out into the Plains. The track of the system is uncertain, but some of the forecasts have it coming close enough to Minnesota to give us a good chance of some rain. There will be a cool front pulled southward ahead of it, so it looks like our toasty weekend will give way to cooler conditions early next week with a shot at rain showers by Monday night or Tuesday. The timing and how much rain we could see is still uncertain.

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Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Thursday 5/5: Some early clouds with a slight chance of a shower, then sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, breezy, and much milder. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 5/6: Sunny, breezy, and summer-like. A slight chance of a late day shower. High: between 84 and 88 (record warm high: 87 in 1918 and 2000). Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and still mild. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Saturday 5/7: Sunny, breezy, and not quite as warm. High: between 66 and 72. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, diminishing wind, and a shade cooler. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: light NE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 5/8: Sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and milder. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 10-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 5/9: Cloudy, breezy, and cooler. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: A chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday?? Highs in the 50's???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Wednesday through Thursday, 7 Thursday night and Friday, 6 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 3 Monday, 2 Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 66F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM): 39F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Normal Temperatures for May 5 - High: 66F; Low: 41F
Next Update: Friday, May 6, 2016 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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