Local Forecast


Tuesday, February 9, 2016 3:08 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Febrrrrrrrrruary

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Winds Ease Up A Bit Overnight

After a full day of blowing snow, the winds dropped somewhat overnight (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map). Wind speeds are still 10-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH in much of Minnesota. In southern Minnesota, the winds are still 20-25 MPH with some gusts over 30 MPH (see NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up). There still are some blowing snow problems in parts of south central and northwestern Minnesota, but most roads in southwestern and south central Minnesota are open again (see Minnesota Road Reports from MnDOT). Temperatures have not dropped much more than they did at this time last night with readings mostly in the single digits above zero. Wind chills are mostly in the minus single digits to the minus teens. There are still some icy spots on roads and especially on driveways and sidewalks, but not nearly to the extent of yesterday.

The highest wind gust St. Cloud had between Sunday afternoon and yesterday was 45 MPH at 4:38 PM Sunday.

Below Average Temperatures Through the Week

The cold weather pattern will settle in for this week. High temperatures today will be a shade cooler than yesterday, staying in the low to middle teens. We will still have the northwest winds, blowing at 12-25 MPH, but they won't be quite as strong as yesterday. Morning wind chills will be in the minus teens, then ease into the minus single digits this afternoon.

The winds will ease up tonight, which will allow low temperatures to drop below zero and perhaps get past -10. We will be between cold air pushes on Wednesday, so slightly milder air will push over the top of the cold air near the ground. That will cloud us up in the afternoon and give us a chance of a little bit of light snow or flurries. If we see any accumulation, it will be limited to between a dusting and an inch, mostly on Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will remain around 10 degrees, but lows will stay near or above zero Wednesday night.

On Thursday, temperatures will moderate slightly. Look for highs in the middle teens.

Coldest Day: Friday Night and Saturday?

Colder air will build in on Friday. High temperatures will be in the lower teens on Friday. We may have a clear, calm night Friday night, allowing temperatures to drop into the minus teens. Highs on Saturday will only make it back to the plus single digits.

It looks like we could see some moderation on Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures might hold in the plus single digits Saturday night, then return to the teens on Sunday.

Overall, it looks like we may be locked in to a colder than average weather pattern into next week. It still looks like the coldest of the cold air will push into the eastern Great Lakes and the Northeast over the weekend.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Tuesday 2/9: Sunny, windy, and continued cold. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 12-25 MPH. Wind chills: in the minus teens in the morning, minus single digits in the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, not quite as windy, and colder. Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between -24 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 2/10: Sunny in the morning, clouding up in the afternoon, light winds, and cold. Maybe some late day flurries. High: between 7 and 12. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, becoming SE 5 MPH in the afternoon.Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries. Low: between 0 and 5. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday 2/11: Partly sunny, light winds, and a shade warmer. High: between 12 and 16. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clouding up with a chance of light snow or flurries late. Low: between 3 and 7. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 2/12: Sunny, a bit breezy, and continued cold. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Friday Night: Clear, light winds, and colder. Low: between -15 and -10. Winds: light NW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 2/13: Partly sunny, breezy, and colder. High: between 4 and 8. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Cloudy and milder with a chance of light snow late Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures holding in the single digits Saturday night and rising into the teens Sunday.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday through Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night and Thursday, 4 Thursday night through Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 15F; Overnight Low Temperature (through 3 AM): 6F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (Through 3 AM Tuesday): 0.01 inch/0.2 inch snow; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Tuesday): 0.04 inch/0.9 inch snow

Normal Temperatures for February 9 - High: 25F; Low: 5F
Next Update: Wednesday, February 10, 2016 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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