Local Forecast


Saturday, August 1, 2015 7:22 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Comfortably Warm Today with Overnight Storms

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We've enjoyed another dry and sunny day, followed by a relatively mild night (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). However, some changes are nearby. Showers and thunderstorms developed overnight from South Dakota into Nebraska (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), a sign that the hot and more humid air to our south and west is trying to move northward again. The warm front that marks this boundary stretches across eastern Montana into central South Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms will erupt this afternoon along this front, then head eastward. Since the front is expected to move northeastward today, they will be closer to Minnesota at the start and will likely drift across central and southern Minnesota into Iowa tonight. Some storms could end up being severe, especially in the southern third of Minnesota. The main threat tonight will be heavy downpours, straight-line damaging winds, and hail, but there could be a tornado threat near the Iowa border back into South Dakota.

For central Minnesota, look for perhaps a late day shower or thunderstorm, but a better chance of storms overnight. This storm threat could continue late at night as the cold front begins to develop and approach us.

Before the storms, we have a good chance of seeing high temperatures a bit warmer than yesterday, climbing into the middle to upper 80's. Humidity will become noticeable as the day moves on

Canadian A/C With a Higher Setting Early Next Week

That front will come through tomorrow morning, probably bringing an end to the storm threat by the end of the morning. We will likely see some sunshine tomorrow afternoon with a strong northwest wind. However, much cooler and drier air will move in, so highs will be limited to the upper 70's to near 80.

The next batch of Canadian air is cooler than what we have now, so look for highs in the 70's and lows near 50 or in the upper 40's Monday through Wednesday. I don't see much of a threat of storms again until Wednesday night.

July Very Wet With Average Temperatures

The July temperature statistics in my July 2015 St. Cloud weather summary are now final. We didn't get any rain after Tuesday's deluge, but still ended up with the 7th wettest July in St. Cloud records and the 4th wettest May-July combined rainfall. July will likely end up with a near average temperature and the very few incidents of a 90-degree high.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Saturday 8/1: Partly sunny with a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 84 and 88. Winds: W-SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear and milder with noticeable humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, or heavy downpours. Low: between 60 and 65. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Sunday 8/2: Maybe a lingering morning shower, then becoming partly sunny, breezy, warm, and turning less humid. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: becoming NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday Night: Clearing with diminishing wind and cooler. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 8/3: Sunny, breezy, seasonably cool and dry. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and a bit chillier. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 8/4: Sunny, not quite as breezy, and continued seasonably cool. High: between 72 and 76. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and continued chillier. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: light SW. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 8/5: Partly sunny and warmer. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Storms Wednesday night??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Saturday, 7 Saturday night, 6 Sunday through Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night.

Yesterday's High: 82F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 55F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 7 AM Saturday): None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 7 AM Saturday): None

Normal Temperatures for August 1 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Sunday, August 2, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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