Monday, June 30, 2025  5:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Still a 50-50 Shot at Monday Showers, Then Return to 80's Mid-Week

Some Damage Surveys from Recent Severe Storms

While the Lake Superior North Shore, a part of the Twin Cities, and extreme southeastern Minnesota had some Sunday afternoon thunderstorms (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), yesterday ended up being the driest day of the past several statewide. The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities surveyed the pair of tornado tracks in the southwestern suburbs from Saturday. The surveys of the South Dakota into western Minnesota tornadoes show an EF1 and an EF2 tornado. The spotter reports of the tornado between Watertown, SD and Canby, MN had indicated a wedge-type tornado. And, Janet and I had a chance to walk along the Sauk Rapids bike trail from Municipal Park past Island View Park. We saw several large tree branches downed or broken and even a few trunks snapped off or uprooted from our Saturday night wind storm.

Huge June Rain in Parts of Central and Southern Minnesota

All of the rain from the past week (more than 2 inches in most of central and southern Minnesota, yellow on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map, when you set the date to yesterday and the time period to last 7 days; over 5 inches, red, from Lake Benton through Granite Falls to Renville; even some spotty rains over half an inch, green, along Hwy. 2 and in spots along the Canadian border) has pushed the June rainfall totals over 6 inches in the southern half of Minnesota and along the Iron Range (red, on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map, when you set the date to yesterday and the time period to last 30 days) with Granite Falls, and most of Kandiyohi (Willmar) and Meeker (Litchfield) Counties between 10 and 15 inches (cyan).

5:20 AM Update for Overnight Rainfall

The overnight rainfall at the St. Cloud Regional Airport was 0.92 inch, 0.90 inch within an hour. So, the June rainfall total is now 7.74 inches of rain, St. Cloud's rainiest month since May 2012 (8.76 inches) and the 10th rainiest June on record. The last June with more rain was in 1990 when 10.52 inches of rain fell, St. Cloud's 5th rainiest month of all time (click on all-time rainiest months). There have been 16 days with measurable rain in June, the most since June 2014 (16 days). The June record is 20 days with measurable rainfall, set in 1914. St. Cloud State University has seen 8.45 inches of June rain with measurable rain on 19 of the 30 days.

Warm, Humid, But Fewer Sunday Daytime Storms

After the leftover showers from the Dakotas began to dissipate yesterday morning, parts of central and western Minnesota even had a good supply of sunshine (see College of DuPage shortwave infrared satellite loop), allowing temperatures to climb to the middle 80's (set time to 20Z-23Z, 3-6 PM on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). St. Cloud Regional Airport reached 87 degrees, two degrees warmer than on Saturday (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). Dew points continued in the uncomfortable middle and even upper 60's. Slightly drier air is working its way from Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and North Dakota into Minnesota with dew points back in the 50's (light green or yellow on the UCAR hourly dew point map).

Better Chance for Monday Storms Without Severe Weather Threat

However, the odds of St. Cloud remaining rain-free on Monday are small. An upper-air low pressure system has been pushing southward through Manitoba and into North Dakota (see counterclockwise circulation center on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). That low will be in northern Minnesota during the morning and midday hours today. There have already been a few late night scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing through central Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) with more storms in southern Manitoba (see radar from NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). These storms have been caused by the large temperature difference between the ground and 5 miles up in the atmosphere. Those puffy cumulus clouds will spread even more after the sun comes up, heating the ground (see more clouds that popped up yesterday midday afternoon in Manitoba during the daytime hours of the College of DuPage visible satellite loop), producing brief showers and even a few thunderstorms. Those showers will give us a 50-50 shot at some brief measurable rainfall today, mainly during the morning and midday hours.

Slightly cooler air will also move in underneath the cold air pocket, so highs will be close to 80, rather than being in the middle to upper 80's.

Fewer Showers, Warmer Tuesday

Tuesday will be our best chance for a dry day this week. Canadian high pressure will take over, calming the winds, so tomorrow morning's lows are likely to be in the 50's. There could be some fog. Tomorrow afternoon, we will only have a few puffy afternoon clouds. Still, the residual amount of moisture will create a slight chance of a stray raindrop. Highs will be back to the middle 80's.

Scattered Wed-Thu Showers (1 in 3 Chance)

Minnesota will continue to be near the storm track, that will bend from the northwest-to-southeast flow seen this morning (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) to a more west-to-east flow. That will keep the boundary between the slightly drier air from south central Canada and the oppressively humid air that was in Iowa and Kansas yesterday afternoon (see 4 PM Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) near Minnesota. That will keep the chance for significant rainfall near Minnesota during Wednesday and Thursday. We might see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (I have a 1 in 3 chance) both days.

More Storms Either Side of July 4 (Might Disrupt Fireworks?)

In fact, that front should surge northward into central Minnesota by Thursday night, giving central and northern Minnesota a better chance for thunderstorms. If the leftover showers and thunderstorms push far enough away to take the clouds with them, we could have a shot at a hot and steamy Friday. While a high well up in the 90's is uncertain, dew points will likely be well up in the 70's. That will come off a Thursday night when lows will be in the upper 60's if we get storms and in the 70's if we don't. It looks like the next strong low along the front will push it back to the south sometime on Friday night, so there will be an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms that may disrupt fireworks displays (or could bring the best chance for storms during the early morning hours of Saturday).

You can see that the pair of front passings will generate the potential for more significant rainfall (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). This storm doesn't appear to be as strong as the ones that produced the severe weather last week, but it's too early to be sure.

Saturday will have an uncertain chance for storms, perhaps favoring the morning. It appears that our next break would come Sunday into Monday with another shot of cooler air.

Canadian Air Also Cleaner

Despite the on-going Canadian wildfires, recent rain has reached into the Canadian Prairie Provinces, so the low-level smoke is much lower than a month ago. So, our Canadian air will not have the smoke hazards we saw early in June.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 6/30/2025: Mixed clouds and sun with scattered showers or thunderstorms from morning into early afternoon, windy, and not quite as warm, but still uncomfortably humid. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, becoming NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Monday Night: Clearing with diminishing wind and merely noticeable humidity. Maybe some late night fog. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light W late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 7/1/2025: More sunshine mixed with midday and afternoon clouds, breezy, and seasonably warm. A slight chance for an afternoon sprinkle. Still noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. High: between 83 and 88. Winds: W-NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Tuesday Night: Clear through the evening, partly clear late at night, still warm, and a shade humid. A slight chance for a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Wednesday 7/2/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, warmer, and uncomfortably humid. A chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 83 and 88. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, warmer, and uncomfortably humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 63 and 68. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday 7/3/2025: Perhaps an early shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, a mixture of clouds and some sun, warm, and uncomfortably to oppressively humid. A slight chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 83 and 88. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, very warm, and breezy with uncomfortable to oppressive humidity. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 68 and 74. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday 7/4/2025: Mixture of clouds and some sun, very warm, and uncomfortably to oppressively humid. A chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 86 and 92. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Extended: A good chance for Friday night showers and thunderstorms into Saturday morning??? Still humid with uncertain storm chances Saturday afternoon??? Seasonably warm Sunday into Monday with uncertain storm chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 4 Saturday, 5 Saturday night, 4 Sunday through Monday, 3 Tuesday, 2 Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 87°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Monday): 62°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 5 AM Monday): 0.92 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Monday): 0.83 inch

Next Update: Tuesday, July 1, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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