Wednesday, April 23, 2024  2:50 AM

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Get Your Yard Work Done Today or Tomorrow

Few Showers Yesterday

The upper-level low moved on from Minnesota (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) yesterday, but not before the eastern half of Minnesota saw some scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). In Sartell, we even had some pea-sized or smaller hail for a minute.

...With Near Freezing Temperatures Likely by Morning

The clouds dissipated after sunset (see Shortwave Albedo on the Colorado State satellite slider menu) , since they were caused by the large temperature difference between the ground and the middle atmosphere. Since the upper air low has now pushed into Lower Michigan (see Mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), we won't have a repeat of the clouds of the past two days. There have been a few patches of wind, keeping temperatures near 40 through the evening, but in the clear areas, temperatures have fallen back into the 20's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Most of us will see temperatures below freezing by sunrise.

Sunnier Weather Today and Tomorrow

Today will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 50's to near 60, but lighter winds and more sunshine will make it feel warmer than yesterday.

Tonight, warmer air will try to move back in. There is a small chance for a late night or early Thursday morning shower, but the low levels will be dry. The southeast winds will keep the temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. Tomorrow, after the early clouds move northeastward, we should have a good supply of sunshine and temperatures will return to the 60's.

Clouds and Rain Periods Especially Friday and Sunday

From Friday through the weekend, a parade of eastern Pacific storms (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) will push into Minnesota, setting the stage for substantial rain, this time all through the state (see Days 2-6 on the on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation chart). That's good news, because the fire danger will remain high today and especially tomorrow for areas that haven't picked up much rain.

Friday will likely have two waves of showers and thunderstorms, one from late Thursday night through much of Friday morning and another wave in the afternoon and evening. Central Minnesota will remain to the north of the warm front, so I don't think we will be able to break the clouds much between the showers, so I'm keeping highs in the middle 50's. Southeast winds will be strong once again.

Less Saturday Rain But Lingering Clouds

The first system will drift over Minnesota Friday night, then push into Ontario on Saturday. The heavier rain will be over early Saturday, but we will have a lot of clouds around, so temperatures will remain in the middle to perhaps upper 50's.

The second storm system will approach on Sunday and push through Minnesota on Sunday night. Again, central Minnesota will be in the cool air north of the warm front, so temperatures are likely to stay in the 50's. We will have a chance for showers again late Saturday night with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday into Sunday evening. That system will move past Minnesota on Monday, but it may be close enough for lingering clouds and perhaps a few showers on Monday.

Once we get rid of the second storm system, Minnesota will be set up for a period of sunshine and warmer temperatures with at least 60's likely.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 4/24/2024: After some early fog, more sunshine, light winds, and continued seasonably warm. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear evening, more clouds late, and not as cool. Low: between 37 and 42. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday 4/25/2024: Clouds with a slight chance of an early shower. Later, partly cloudy, breezy, and a bit warmer. High: between 63 and 68. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH in the morning, 15-25 MPH with higher gusts in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, windy, and milder. A good chance of late night showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 43 and 48. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Friday 4/26/2024: Showers and thunderstorms, both in the morning and late in the afternoon. High: between 53 and 58. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 80%.

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain or showers. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: E 10-20 MPH evening, becoming NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday 4/27/2024: Mostly cloudy with perhaps some late day sunny breaks. A chance of scattered showers with the best chance in the morning. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW-N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy and breezy with a chance of rain or showers, especially towards morning. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH evening, 10-20 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday 4/28/2024: Cloudy, breezy, and cooler. Occasional showers and thunderstorms. High: between 53 and 58. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Extended: Lingering showers into Sunday night??? Improving weather with warmer temperatures by the middle of next week????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night, 5 Thursday through Friday night, 3 Saturday through Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 62°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 40°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): TBA

Next Update: Thursday, April 25, 2024 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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