St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

The general weather-related issues for today through early next week remains similar:

1. Very high to extreme fire danger today and tomorrow (red flag warning, highest level of fire danger, today)
2. Showers and thunderstorms at times Sunday afternoon through Monday with heavy rainfall (see Days 4 and 5 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) and severe weather (see Days 3 and 4 of the NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks)

Extreme Fire Danger Today, Elevated Danger Tomorrow

The air mass coming in behind yesterday afternoon's thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) is extremely dry the further west you go (dew points fall from the 30's through the  20's or even teens from the Dakotas to Montana and Alberta; see Thursday 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Today will have the worst combination of high temperatures (80's), low humidity, and strong winds. Tomorrow, it won't be as breezy nor quite as warm (upper 70's to near 80), but the dry conditions will continue.

There will also be areas of lower visibility due to blowing dust (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest)

Until we get significant rainfall, avoid outdoor burning.

Update on Sunday-Monday Thunderstorm Threat

The shower and thunderstorm threat for late in the weekend into early next week has gotten more complicated. A bigger spread in the timing and location of the key low and fronts has developed. I am leaning towards the slower European forecast over the faster US one (which shows a slowing trend in recent runs. If that is true, the best chance for widespread thunderstorms over Minnesota may hold off until Monday afternoon and evening, instead of being Sunday. However, there is some chance that some storms develop from this strong system in western Minnesota on Sunday and move through central Minnesota during the late afternoon and early evening, followed by a late night break in the storms. I can't rule out the threat of severe storms for Sunday at this point. The additional uncertainty means that I have dropped the chance for rain on Sunday and Sunday evening to a 50-50 shot and wouldn't go for heavier rainfall Sunday into Monday than during the day and evening Monday. Note that Days 3-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast seem to have the same outlook as it appeared yesterday.

There could easily be more changes, since the slower progress of the storm could end up pushing rain chances later

Still, given the Storm Prediction Center's outlook for severe weather both Sunday and Monday (with Minnesota in at least category 2 of 5 on both days), I would plan on monitoring the severe weather watches and warnings on-line or through a NOAA Weather Radio, especially if you have outdoor plans or are traveling back from those activities. 

Behind the Monday storm, the computer forecasts agree more about the cooler temperatures coming in for the middle of the week. The latest indicates highs only in the 50's both Tuesday and Wednesday. I don't see a clear, calm night at this point, so I don't see a near freezing low at this point. Unless we get huge rainfall, there will be that potential.

However, there is another issue I must deal with....

Aside (Slipping Through the Stones)

I began preparing this forecast between 12 and 1 AM Friday, but that wasn't the most important activity going on in our house at that time. Janet has been parked in the living room as the final episode of Outlander was released on-demand. 

I suppose that I am responsible for us getting trapped at Craig na Dun

Janet has been looking at the genealogy of her family for the past year, and has been interested about especially the European history (and some US history as well) that was skipped in school history classes, especially after the migration to the Americas began. Being an extreme geek, I had some vague knowledge about a show in which the main character(s) traveled back to earlier history in Europe, but didn't know anything more. We have been tied to Lallybroch and Frazier's Ridge ever since.

So our early Friday routine is now:

1. Janet watches the episode and gets annoyed by certain elements.
2. I need to hurry through the forecast, so I can watch the episode, so that Janet can note the pluses and minuses of the episodes over coffee.
3. Janet has to go on to all of the Outlander fan sites to disagree or agree with the complaining.
4. We have to spend the rest of the week exploring cockamamie (at least that comes from 19th century France, rather than conspiracy) theories about the next episode or the season.
5. Then, we also have to read all of Diana Gabaldon's books to compare what has changed and whether we like it.

Then, we have the overall discussion of where Season 8 has gone wrong, and whether the series has

1. Jumped the Shark
2. will have a last episode that ends up like the end of Seinfeld
3. has had a final season as bad as Lost.

Obviously, I am wasting time posting this rant, so without seeing the final episode, my ending theories, heavily influenced by Ronald D. Moore being involved include:

1. Claire will again say "This has all happened before (as she has before in the series and the books)," but she will finally say "this will all happen again," so the Cylons take over the American Revolution.
2. Since the children seem to be able to see people both in the past and in the future, they will unite, especially with Fanny, and the Star-Children will save the Universe (like the terrible ending of V The Final Battle)
3. Admiral Kathryn Janeway will beam down to the final battle sight, scaring all of the combatants away, and resolving the issue, exclaiming, "Time travel gives me a headache!"

Oh, right....this is supposed to be a weather forecast....