St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Given this weekend's important events (Mother's Day, Minnesota Fishing Opener, and most importantly, the premiere of The Sheep Detectives), the main weather issues for outdoor activities will be another cool and windy shot of air coming over the weekend. This will make three weather-relative issues:

1. Dressing for the cooler weather expected (unlike today's brief warmer spell)
2. Continued very high to extreme fire danger
3. Lingering flooding near lakes and low-lying portages in the Boundary Waters between Ely and the end of the Gunflint Trail 

Climbing to Near 70 Today After Early Frost

We are in the process of climbing the temperature roller coaster once again. After temperatures came within a degree of a record cold low yesterday (24 degrees; see 7-day St. Cloud temperature graph from MesoWest), highs finally return to a near average 60 degrees yesterday afternoon (see 4 PM CDT Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). 

We do have a clear (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), calm night, so temperatures will bottom out near freezing and in the 20's a bit to our north (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). However, we will get some of the air that was in the Dakotas yesterday (see 4 PM CDT Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so highs will end up near 70.

Cooler and Breezy Weekend, But Not Quite as Cold as Earlier This Week

However, this will only be a one-day excursion to the warmer side of average. The steering winds in western Canada remain northwest-to-southeast (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). That means that another low caught up in the central Canada whirlpool will move from Hudson Bay to western Ontario by tomorrow, ushering in the next shot of cooler air. The cold will push through early tomorrow morning, bringing a chance of some scattered rain showers late tonight and early tomorrow, then the cooler air will follow. This weekend won't be as chilly as Tuesday and Wednesday were, but highs tomorrow will be limited to the upper 50's with Sunday's high in the middle 50's. This cooler air will come with a lot of wind, with gusts of 25-30 MPH likely tomorrow afternoon and gusts over 30 MPH likely on Sunday (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for latest temperatures, winds, and overnight wind chills). The breeze will remain up on Saturday night, so we might see near freezing temperatures, but there will be a better chance for Monday morning frost when the winds calm down.

Extreme Fire Danger Today, Very High Fire Danger Both Weekend Days

Despite the chance for early Saturday rain showers, the air both today and later in the weekend will be very dry with strong breezes, so the fire danger will be either very high or extreme from today through the weekend. If you plan to camp this weekend, you should not roam from your fire and make sure it is put out before leaving.

High Water in Central and Western Boundary Waters

The Boundary Waters flood advisory is in effect through Monday afternoon. There will be portions of trails and portages under water. And, all lake water levels will be high and very cold with rapidly moving currents.

60's Return for Much of Next Week

The weather pattern is expected to change next week as the central Canada low will finally weaken. That will turn our steering winds to a more west-northwest to east-northeast pattern, so our air will be coming from Alberta rather than the Yukon. This will likely mean highs in the 60's on any sunny day. We will also have a bit more moisture available for any storm system, so there will be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday.

By later in the week, the flow will be strong enough to warm up the air as it heads down the Canadian Rockies, so we could see more persistent temperatures in the 70's. How quickly that warming happens is a bit uncertain.

We'll Be Sheeping Out

Meanwhile, Janet and I will spend part of this weekend baa-ing...