Tuesday, May 12, 2026 1:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

True May Weather Returns

Overnight Rain Showers Can't Get Rain to Ground

After a few days of cool temperatures, especially during the morning (see NWS St. Cloud May 2026 high-low temperature graph), Minnesota made it back to seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's (see 4 PM CDT Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). A low pressure system is moving from Saskatchewan into Manitoba (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), producing some pop-up showers and thunderstorms (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), but the very dry air over Minnesota (dew points still in the 20's, white areas, on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) kept afternoon relative humidities in the 10-30 percent range away from the Lake Superior shore (see afternoon versions of the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up), so the showers that have developed (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) with even some near midnight thunder in St. Cloud (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) are producing little rain at the ground (see absence of red dots at stations on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Near Average May Temperatures Through Thursday, Even Warmer Friday into the Weekend

Even though the cold front will come through Minnesota early this morning (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), temperatures will get no cooler than the 60's (today and perhaps tomorrow) with 70's more likely Friday through the weekend. There may be a shot at 80 on Friday.

We will have extremely dry conditions today through tomorrow. It will be even windier today than yesterday, so expect another red flag warning, the highest category of fire danger, over parts of Minnesota today. It will still be breezy tomorrow, so fire danger will remain high to very high.

Small Chance of Thursday Rain

We will have a warm front coming into Minnesota on Thursday and Thursday with another shot at scattered showers and thunderstorms. The air will slowly get a bit more moist with dew points climbing through the 40's to perhaps 50 by then. Still, there will be only a 30 percent chance for rain to get to the ground (see Day 3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation outlook). 

Warming Up and Turning Noticeably Humid Late Week

The Thursday system will be a warm front, so Friday's high temperature will be in the upper 70's to perhaps lower 80's. At times over the weekend, the dew points will climb into the noticeable upper 50's and perhaps brush the uncomfortable lower 60's.

Still, Friday's dew points may remain in the 40's with temperatures approaching 80. The winds will also be strong so there will be a risk of extreme fire danger in parts of Minnesota.

Uncertain Shot at Significant Rain Late Weekend And/Or Early Next Week

The next shot at showers and thunderstorms could be during the second half of the weekend. There are still differences in the potential storm track, so it is uncertain which parts of Minnesota will have the best shot at storms or the timing of these storms (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation outlook). There is even more uncertainty about any rain threat early next week, as shown in Days 6-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation outlook.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level (high): "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"    

Tuesday 5/12/2026: Morning sun, midday and afternoon clouds, blustery, and seasonably warm. A slight chance for a midday or afternoon sprinkle. Extreme fire danger. High: between 62 and 67. Winds: NW 20-35 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Clearing, diminishing wind, and cooler. Low: between 38 and 43. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.  

Wednesday 5/13/2026: Morning sun, partly sunny midday and afternoon. A shade warmer. Extreme fire danger. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%. 

Wednesday Night: Partly clear and not as cool. Low: between 43 and 48. Winds: light evening, SE 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%. 

Confidence Level (medium): "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"  

Thursday 5/14/2026: Partly sunny, blustery, and warmer. A chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, then partly clear late. Mild with noticeable humidity. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts through midnight, SW 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.  

Friday 5/8/2026: Mostly sunny, blustery, warmer, and a little drier. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level (low): "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"      

Friday Night: Clear, breezy during the evening, and not quite as warm. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.  

Saturday 5/9/2026: A sunny start, then increasing high and middle clouds midday and afternoon. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: light early, SE 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Uncertain chance for Saturday night and Sunday showers and thunderstorms?? Perhaps one day of cooler temperatures Monday??

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 4 Thursday and Thursday night, 5 Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday.                

Yesterday's High: 67°F; Overnight Low (through 1 AM Tuesday): 59°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Tuesday): None

May 12 Historic Data
Temperature Category High Low

Average Temperatures

 68°F 43°F

Record Temperatures

 95°F (2000) 60°F (1906)
39°F (1953) 21°F (1946)

Next Update: Wednesday, May 13, 2026 6 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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