St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Making Excuses for Yesterday's Intense Cool

Oh, those stubborn rings (the large area of counterclockwise circulation from Manitoba to Quebec on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). You try splitting the steering winds, drying out the ground, whipping the breeze up for better mixing, but you still get 'Ring in Central Canada.'

The instability clouds were even more persistent than I had expected yesterday, because that big low circulation pushed a smaller low from Saskatchewan to Minnesota. The cold air aloft associated with those lows kept allowing instability clouds to hold all day in northern and central Minnesota and redevelop in southern Minnesota as the day went on (see white area on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). Keeping the sun away combined with the stiff northwest breeze (wind gusts over 20 MPH on the NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) kept daytime temperatures no milder than the middle 40's in central Minnesota with upper 30's in northern Minnesota (see 4 PM CDT Wednesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). This was about 10 degrees short of the May 6 record cold high (need snow on the ground to get there). The wind combined with early morning temperatures near freezing to produce wind chills in the 20's. Afternoon wind chills were in the 30's. Those highs were more typical of late March than early May. 

Improvement Today (50's After Early 20's)...

When will it get any better? We will see some improvement the next 3 days, but will have yet another cool surge for much of the weekend.

The smaller upper-air low spent the night drifting across Minnesota (see the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), which has finally allowed the low clouds to break up during the early morning hours (see white areas shrink on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). But, the bad timing of the clearing and reduced winds have produced many temperatures in the 20's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). The clouds broke up around midnight in central Minnesota, so we could also see those chilly temperatures this morning.

The air aloft is cold enough to produce some midday and afternoon instability clouds, but they should allow a bit more sun through. So, temperatures will moderate about 10 degrees from yesterday, climbing into the middle or upper 50's.

...And Better Tomorrow (60's After Another Frost Chance)...

The moderation will continue through tomorrow. The winds will lighten tonight again, but there will be more persistent high clouds, so temperatures will still get down into the 30's, but the frost threat will be lower than the past 2 nights. We will actually have west winds Friday instead of the chilly northwest winds. Temperatures will finally return to middle to upper 60's, near the early May average.

...But Mostly 50's Weekend

Still, another cool down will begin on Saturday. The next low pressure system in the continued northwest-to-southeast steering winds is the small circulation moving from the Yukon into Nunavut and northwestern Alberta (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). The cold front from this system will arrive early Saturday morning, bringing the next shot of northern Canadian Prairie Province air to Minnesota from mid-morning Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the 40's on Friday night with a 1 in 3 shot at an early Saturday shower within a few hours of daybreak (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but the generally dry air won't produce much precipitation.

After that, Saturday's high temperatures will be in the upper 50's to near 60. Mother's Day will be even cooler (highs in the middle 50's), but still 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. There will be frost chances both early Sunday and Monday.

Seasonably Warm (60's) First Half of Next Week (Warmer Late Week?)

The steering winds will finally shift by early next week. We will still have a northwest-to-southeast flow, but it will be coming from British Columbia and Alberta instead of the Yukon, so we will see a warming trend during the week. There are a series of storms forecast to push near Minnesota, so there will be some chance for rain showers, but I don't see a major northward moisture surge, so the potential precipitation will be light. I see highs back in the 60's during the early and middle portion of next week. There will be the potential for warmer weather during the second half of next week.

Persistent Dry Conditions and Little Rain Chance Will Keep Fire Danger High to Extreme

The milder temperatures and lack of rain will still bring high fire danger to much of western and central Minnesota. There is the possibility for a red flag warning in parts of northern Minnesota today. Warmer temperatures tomorrow and windier conditions much of Saturday could again push the fire danger to extreme levels.