St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Wildfire Issues Continue, Especially Tomorrow

A storm system on the Alberta-Montana border (see counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage mid-troposphere water vapor loop) will push along the border to northern Minnesota today. However, there isn't much moisture available (dew points only in the 30's until northern Missouri; see blue on the UCAR hourly dew point chart), so the scattered showers ahead of the front (see small blobs in Montana and the western Dakotas on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop and the few echoes on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) won't produce that much rain as they come through this afternoon and early evening (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). And, what little moisture we gain from those showers will be lost after the front goes by.

So, the main weather issue between now and Saturday is that even warmer high temperatures (in the 70's today and Saturday, in the 80's tomorrow), low humidity, and strong winds (especially tomorrow) will continue the very high to extreme fire danger we have seen so often recently. 

The worst conditions will be tomorrow (the National Weather Service has already issued a fire weather watch for tomorrow, orange area in both northern and central Minnesota). A red flag warning, the highest level of fire danger, is likely across much of Minnesota tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, the red flag warning now shown (red area in most of western Minnesota) is for today's conditions. The dry part of today (morning into at least early afternoon) will also be dry enough for the extreme fire danger.

Tuesday's round of strong winds also produced blowing dust issues in southwestern and south central Minnesota, so we could see more problems today and tomorrow.

There aren't any watches or warnings out for Saturday yet. Saturday is expected to be a bit less windy, but still very warm. The increasing moisture from the south won't have much of an effect, so expect very high fire danger to continue.

Keep in mind that people are the number one cause of wildfires. You should postpone any burning until we get important rainfall (most likely during the Sunday-Monday period).

Potential for Helpful Rainfall (Severe Weather?) Sometime Sunday into Monday

As noted above, there is now hope for significant rainfall across much of Minnesota from Sunday through Monday (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The set-up will involve thunderstorms, so it's hard to pin down what part of Minnesota will have the best chance. However, it appears that one swath of heavy rainfall is possible some time Sunday night into Monday. The National Weather Service even has a small chance for enough rain to cause flooding problems (see Day 5 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). Given the lack of ground moisture (see US Drought Monitor, to be updated later this morning), it would take an area being hit by several thunderstorms to produce enough rain for flooding issues.

There will also be a chance for severe weather. The NWS Storm Prediction Center long-range convective outlook has some of Minnesota in its Days 5-6 forecast (will be Days 4-5 after the 2:30 AM update). The latest series of forecasts seem to indicate that the best chance for central Minnesota severe weather may be late Sunday into Sunday night, but it's too early to be sure.

So, a few showers and thunderstorms may be possible on Sunday morning, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will push across Minnesota some time from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, or perhaps into Monday morning if the timing slows a bit. Another wave of Monday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop. The cold front may be through much of northern and central Minnesota by Monday midnight, so the bulk of the storms could be concentrated in southern Minnesota or further to the south. At this point, I am going for a cooler, but humid Monday with the chance for scattered showers.

Cooler With Small Rain Chances Rest of Next Work Week?

We will dry out again on Tuesday with much cooler air than we will have between today and Saturday. The computer forecasts have been inconsistent with how cool the new air mass would be. Highs much of next work week would most likely be in the 60's most of next week, which is now a bit cooler than the mid-May average. There is even a chance of a high stuck in the 50's on Tuesday. Low temperatures might be in the 40's or even 30's next week.

There will also be a series of storms moving in more west-to-east steering winds. Right now, I see the chance for some rain showers next week with uncertain timing and mainly light amounts possible.