St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Florida-like Humidity on our Doorstep

Today begins a series of days with uncomfortable (dew points in the 60's) to oppressive (dew points in the Florida-like 70's) humidity that will probably last through the upcoming week. We will also be hotter, as yesterday afternoon's highs in the lower 80's (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) should easily extend through much of the week, peaking tomorrow with highs well into the 90's. 

Morning Thunderstorms to Rumble Through Central Minnesota...

There are strong showers and thunderstorms blossoming in the Dakotas (see College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop). These storms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop, but note that Sioux Falls radar is still out), fueled by the extremely warm and humid air from Nebraska and Iowa southward (see UCAR hourly dew point chart), produced a swath of straight-line damaging winds and some large hail from yesterday afternoon into the overnight hours (see NWS Storm Prediction Center June 27 storm reports).

The strongest surge of the sultry air over the top of yesterday's cooler and drier air will move into Minnesota for the first half of the day. I expect the showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) as they push into Minnesota before sunrise and linger for a good chunk of the morning and midday. There will be a chance that some storms could produce straight line damaging winds and large hail in Minnesota (category 2 of 5 in southern Minnesota, which could spread into central Minnesota). The slow-moving storms will also produce some locally heavy downpours (small chance for Day 2 excessive rainfall ; see potential quarter inch to half inch rain amounts on the Day 1 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) and certainly enough lightning (last week was the NWS Lightning Safety Awareness week; lightning is a threat in any thunderstorm) to likely move this morning's festival activities indoors.

...With Excessive Humidity Arriving This PM

Those storms will also crank the dew points well up into the 60's if not the oppressive 70's. There may still be enough lingering clouds to keep today's highs in the lower portion of the 80's, but heat indices will be pushed into the 90's (see hourly heat indices of 88 or higher on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). 

Storms Again Late Today and Tonight (Mostly to Our North?)

There is a good chance that showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and evening in northern and parts of central Minnesota, but most storms could remain to our north.

Excessive Heat Warning Monday

That will set up southern and central Minnesota for the most oppressive conditions. Tonight's lows will likely be 70 degrees or higher, making sleep difficult for those without air conditioning. And, tomorrow's highs will likely be in the 90's, perhaps the middle 90's, with those sultry dew points. The NWS has a heat advisory in southwest Minnesota this afternoon, which could see enough sun to push temperatures into the upper 80's today. Much more of Minnesota has an excessive heat warning tomorrow, lasting all day.

Heat and Sun Safety

You can find safety steps for intense heat and humidity on the NWS heat safety page (kids and seniors are the most vulnerable.)  Also, keep your exposure to ultraviolet sunlight to a minimum (there is no such thing as a safe tan).

Air Quality Expected to Be Moderate (Perhaps a Bit Worse?)

There is also the potential for air quality issues. The extreme heat will likely build ozone levels, although high humidity could temper the readings a bit. There will also be potential for smoke issues. The large Utah fires are already pushing a plume of smoke aloft into the western Dakotas (see EPA fire and smoke map), so sunshine will be hazy.

While north-to-south flow isn't as likely during the next couple of days, there are a number of wildfires in central Canada (drag EPA fire and smoke map to Canada), especially across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The season so far isn't quite as bad as last year's second worst Canadian fire season on record, but wildfire smoke could become an issue in Minnesota if we get a Canadian air mass.

How Hot and Humid Will It Be The Rest of the Week? 

The main forecast question for the rest of the week is how quickly a weak cold front can push the worst of the heat and humidity to our south. There are signs that the warm front could push far enough to the south on Monday night to displace the 70's dew points out of central Minnesota (red areas on the NWS Heat Risk forecast pushed into southern Minnesota by Tuesday). However, the forecasts show a series of weak lows, each one pushing the main southwestern Canada low (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) into the Prairie Provinces. Since the forecast for these lows are a bit uncertain, it's hard to pin down where the heat will persist and who will have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms (and when those storms will be most likely). 

Monday Night Storms?

The front coming through late Monday or Monday night has the potential to produce all types of severe weather threats (category 2 of 5) in Minnesota. The storm potential in northern Minnesota appears to be more clear cut (best chance for significant rainfall on the Day 2 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but there is enough uncertainty in the development of central and southern Minnesota to make the thunderstorm forecast not as confident as during today.

Second Wave of Storms Tuesday? (or to the South?)

From Tuesday on, the forecast gets more uncertain. If the Monday night front hangs up in southern Minnesota, there would be a chance for more showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southern Minnesota is outlined in the computer forecasts, but these storms could be in central Minnesota if the front doesn't move as far to the south or could be in northern Iowa if Monday night storms develop further southward than expected. That's also the reason for a mere category 1 chance for severe weather.

The dew points may hold around 70 on Tuesday even if the front comes through, because of the evaporation of rain from the wet ground. And, high temperatures may get to 90 again if the Monday night storms move eastward fast enough to keep lingering clouds out.

Continued Fairly Humid and Very Warm Rest of the Week....

The rest of the work week will continue with uncomfortable dew points in the 60's (although they could be in the oppressive 70's if rain is nearby) and highs at least in the 80's. A drier, sunnier day could push highs in the 90's. That will leave Minnesota near the border of the heat risk potential, so I would expect a good chance of a heat advisory. There could be a prolonged period of low temperatures no cooler than the middle 60's. If we have 70's, that would increase the heat risk for those who have no air conditioning.

...With Uncertain Chances for Thunderstorms

I have at least a 1 in 3 chance for daily showers and thunderstorms each day. The computer forecasts themselves have a bigger threat on Saturday, but they are notoriously bad at forecasting the thunderstorm potential in a warm and humid pattern beyond a couple of days. The really humid air means that the NWS Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a small chance of heavy rainfall in Minnesota with significant rainfall shown in Minnesota on Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). 

June 2026 Will Finish Warmer Than Average Despite Recent Cool Spell

The long June period without an 80-degree high has dropped the June average St. Cloud temperature to within a degree of average through Friday. It's still above normal because 10 of the first 12 June days had highs in the 80's. Our lone 90-degree high so far this season was set on May 27. This average will get pushed up dramatically during the last 3 days of June.