Friday, December 19, 2025  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Roller Coaster Temperatures Through Weekend With Another Thaw Early Next Week

Some Travel Issues Remaining in NW MN, NE ND

Yesterday's storm pushed through Minnesota to Lake Michigan (see College of DuPage clean infrared North America satellite loop). There are few snowfall reports from eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, but International Falls picked up 3.7 inches. The big issue remains the combination of the snow pack and the strong winds, still gusting to between 30 and 40 MPH in western Minnesota (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). In areas with recent snow, that is causing enough low visibility that no travel is advised in northwestern Minnesota (purple areas on the MnDOT Minnesota road reports) and northeastern North Dakota, including I-29 (see ND Dept. of Transportation road reports).

Bundle Up for the Start of Today

Otherwise, it's the winds and the falling temperatures. Wind gusts have been as high as 40 MPH in St. Cloud (see some noon to 9 PM reports on the NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) and were over 50 MPH in parts of western Minnesota (set time on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up to 4-9 PM). Since temperatures dropped below zero at midnight, the wind chill has fallen to -20 with lower half of the -20's and even some -30's in west central and northwestern Minnesota (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). Temperatures will drop below -10 in western Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and approach -10 in central Minnesota. The winds will ease up a bit late tonight, but there will be some wind chills in the -35 to -25 range for a while. That's cold enough to cause exposed skin to freeze in 30 minutes or less. The National Weather Service has a cold weather advisory in northwestern Minnesota until noon today, but that's the only advisory leftover from the rainbow of statements yesterday.

But Only Short Sideswipes of Really Cold Air Today and Sat Nt-Sun

Even though the 'coldest of the cold air' now extends from Nunavut into northern Saskatchewan, most of Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario (areas where the green color, which is ground temperature, is as cold as middle clouds in the Continental US on the College of DuPage clean infrared North America satellite loop), the brunt of that air is headed through Ontario into Quebec, because the main belt of the winds steering weather systems is now west-to-east from the northeastern Pacific through the Great Lakes (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). That means Minnesota will only have a couple of brushes with the reservoir of cold air (dark blue on the Alicia Bentley North America 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map), both now through this morning and again Saturday afternoon and evening (step forward in time using the right arrow). For the most part, Minnesota will be along the northern edge of the temperature change zone (narrow bands of color), with temperatures below average to near average through the weekend and climbing back above average for a good chunk of next week.

So, our temperature roller coaster will feature

• Cold today through early evening: highs near 10
• Rising temperatures tonight and tomorrow morning: temperatures in the 20's
• Colder temperatures tomorrow afternoon through Sunday: Temperatures in the teens tomorrow afternoon, between -10 and -5 by Sunday morning and in the plus single digits to near 10 Sunday afternoon
• Turning much milder by Monday afternoon: Temperatures rising into the 20's by Monday morning and topping out in the 30's Monday afternoon
• A brief return to average temperatures Tuesday: highs back in the 20's
• Above average highs (30's) likely much of next week

The precipitation chances will be small:

• 1 in 3 chance for a snow or sleet shower this evening (set tab to 12 UTC, 6 AM CST, Sat and precipitation type to freezing rain on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance)
  • Perhaps an inch or two in northeastern MN
• 1 in 5 chance for a snow or sleet shower Sunday evening.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 12/19/2025: Some sunshine through high clouds during the morning, then thickening clouds during the afternoon. High: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 5 MPH during the morning, SE 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Morning wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance for evening sleet or snow. Milder. Temperatures holding in the teens during the evening, then rising into the 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH evening, becoming SW 5-10 MPH towards morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Saturday 12/20/2025: Some early clouds, then becoming sunny, windy, and seasonably cold. High: between 22 and 27 during the morning, falling through the teens during the afternoon. Winds: WNW 10-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH. Afternoon wind chill: between -15 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Clear, diminishing wind, and colder. Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, 5 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -30 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/21/2025: Sunny during the morning, sunshine mixed with high clouds during the afternoon. Colder. High: between 8 and 13. Winds: S 5 MPH during the morning, SE 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -15 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Sunday Night: Thickening clouds, windy, and milder. Maybe a flurry or a sprinkle. Temperatures rising through the teens into the 20's by early morning. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +10. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Monday 12/22/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. Maybe a flurry or a sprinkle. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and still mild. Low: between 20 and 25. Winds: SE 5 MPH evening, NW 5-10 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday 12/23/2025: Sunshine through high clouds and a bit cooler. High: holding in the 20's. Winds: NE-E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued mild Wednesday through Friday???? Uncertain but small precipitation chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday, 5 Friday night through Sunday, 3 Sunday night through Tuesday, 2 Wednesday and Thursday.

Yesterday's High: 39°F (set at 1 AM Thursday); Yesterday's Daytime High: 38°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): -4°F; Top Wind Gust: 40 MPH at 12:21, 3:56, 6:25, 6:54 PM Thursday
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): TBA; Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Friday): -23°F 1 AM

Next Update: Saturday, December 20, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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