St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

First Storm of the Week Produced Little But Wind

The major weather pattern change began yesterday as a low pressure system with a tight counterclockwise circulation moved from North Dakota across northern Minnesota (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop). While we had plenty of clouds (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop), keeping the warmest temperature to only 51 degrees (and that was set at noon; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), the radar echoes remained mostly in the northern half of Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). And, the dry air underneath the clouds evaporated most of the rain before it reached the ground (see very few rain reports underneath the radar echoes between 18Z, 1 PM yesterday, and 06Z, 1 AM early this morning on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

The main effect from that low going by was the strong winds overnight (gusts over 35 MPH in northern Minnesota on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). The St. Cloud Sky Center Airport had a gust of 40 MPH at 10 PM; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

Better Chance for Showers and Thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday Night

We will have better chances at rain, most notably showers and thunderstorms, from the weekend into early next week as a series of storms, beginning with the storm in the eastern Pacific (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop), will push into the Plains states.

In advance of this storm, persistent south to southeast winds will blow, bringing the summerlike Gulf of Mexico humidity from southern Texas and Louisiana (see UCAR hourly dew point map) into the Plains, so this system has the potential to produce significant rain in parts of Minnesota (see Days 3-7 on the NWS quantitative precipitation forecast).

In Minnesota, it appears that the first wave of showers and thunderstorms will develop on Saturday, with the best chance for central Minnesota being in the middle of the day into the afternoon. That will occur as the leading edge of really warm air tries to push into southern and central Minnesota from Iowa. There could still be a few showers Saturday night. However, I think the best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come late Sunday into Sunday night after we spend Sunday in the very warm and at least noticeably humid air. 

Temperature Backslide Today, Seasonably Mild Tomorrow, Still Cool-ish Saturday

Temperature-wise, we won't be as cool as we were on Monday and Tuesday, but cooler air behind the northern Minnesota low will knock high temperatures back into the 40's. Tomorrow will also be sunny with highs in the 50's.

Saturday will have a lot more clouds and the chance of showers and thunderstorms as the much warmer air moves over the top of the leftover cool air. The combination of clouds and showers will likely keep the high close to 50 degrees. 

Very Warm Sunday (Records?), Merely A Shade Cooler Monday

The best chance of being in the warmest of the warm air will come on Sunday. The current scenario of Saturday night showers leaving central and southern Minnesota would allow maximum sunshine on Sunday, so I have pushed the high temperatures well up in the 70's with southern Minnesota having a good shot at some 80-degree highs. St. Cloud has a small chance of breaking 80 as well, which would put the high close to the April 12 record warm high of 82. The cold front will come through Sunday night, but we will still see a Monday high at least in the 60's and possibly near 70 since we have a good chance to be sunny at least through early afternoon.

Then, we will cool to near average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. The weather pattern will allow frequent air mass changes with the possibility of cooler than average temperatures during the second half of the week.