Friday, October 10, 2025  2:30 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Seasonably Warm With Next Few Drips Possible Sunday

Temperatures climbed back into the 70's yesterday afternoon (see 4 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) for the first time since the end of our August backlash at the start of the week (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). That came as the cool high pressure area moved to eastern North America. There was a cold front that came through early last evening (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC continental US surface charts). Moisture was limited, but there was a line of light rain showers that pushed through last evening (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). The St. Cloud Sky Central Airport picked up 0.01 inch (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), our first measurable rainfall of October, but that didn't do much to ease the broadening dry conditions from north central Minnesota eastward (see US Drought Monitor, with updated precipitation through Tuesday). Still, the largest areas missing fall rain are off to our south and east from Illinois into Ohio and also northern New England.

The clouds with the cold front have moved to our east (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). The upper-air low driving the cold front is pushing from Manitoba towards Ontario (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), so we will have a dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are beginning today (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) milder than yesterday (see Continental US 24-hour temperature change from Penn State ewall), but we will have a short period of cooler conditions today and tomorrow, although it won't be nearly as cool as the start of this week. Highs will be back in the middle 60's today (which is now more than 5 degrees warmer than average) and low in the upper 30's will be possible tonight.

By Sunday, the strong upper air low off the Washington and Oregon coasts (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) will push through the northern US and Canadian Rockies, allowing a cold front to approach. This system will have a bit more moisture than last evening's system, so there will be a better chance for rain showers from late Saturday night into Sunday morning and again on Sunday afternoon. Still, the amount of moisture will be limited, so there won't much of a chance for significant rainfall (most of Minnesota only within the 0.01 inch, brown, contour on the Day 3 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

That next low could even produce accumulating snow in Montana (set time to 00 UTC Mon Oct 13 on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance).

We will have cooler air move in behind that Sunday storm, so highs are more likely to be in the 50's, a shade cooler than average, on Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30's and 40's. Despite the cooler conditions, southwest-to-northeast steering winds will remain over the western third of the US, so we will be near the boundary for warmer air. That will set us up for uncertain rain chances during the middle and late part of next work week (see Days 6-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

The progression of fall colors has caused more than half the trees to turn in a swath of central Minnesota just to our north. for Minnesota. Peak color should develop over the next two weeks. In Wisconsin, the northern half of the state has substantial color with peak near the Upper Michigan border.

I will be away over the next week plus, so the next forecast update will be Tuesday, October 21.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 10/10/2025: Becoming mostly sunny, windy, and a bit cooler. High: between 63 and 68. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, light winds, and cooler. Low: between 36 and 42. Winds: NE-E 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday 10/11/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday Night: Thickening clouds, breezy, and milder with a chance for early morning rain showers or thunderstorms. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Sunday 10/12/2025: Mostly cloudy with morning rain showers. Maybe a few afternoon sunny breaks, but a chance for more showers and thunderstorms developing. Windy and a bit cooler. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday Night: Maybe a lingering evening rain shower, then partial clearing, windy, and cooler. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH, becoming NW 10-20 MPH after midnight. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Monday 10/13/2025: Sunny, windy, and cooler. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: WNW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Monday Night: Partly clear, lighter wind, and chilly. Low: between 28 and 34. Winds: N 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 10/14/2025: Perhaps a few sunny breaks mixed with sun and continued cool. A slight chance for a rain shower. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Highs in the 50's or 60's with uncertain rain chances during the middle of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Friday through Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 72°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): 53°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): 0.01 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): TBA

Next Update: Tuesday, October 21, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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