St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Minnesota has seen its occasional 80-degree high this spring, with 3 isolated April days (2 of which set records; see red number at top of column on that NWS St. Cloud April 2026 high-low temperature graph) and 2 in a row earlier this May. The May graph really shows the roller-coaster temperatures that have dominated May so far, including our most recent frosts last Wednesday and even a few spots last Thursday.

Much of Minnesota made it to 80 degrees yesterday (see 4 PM CDT Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), including St. Cloud getting to 82 (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). However, 80-degree highs are going to stick around for much of this work week, thanks to a stalling weather pattern.

Stalling Storm Track Will Keep Heat in the Area

The main system that will stall is the strong low approaching British Columbia (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop). Over the next two days, that low is expected to intensify as it moves into California, which will cause it to stall in the central and southern Rockies for much of the work week. While that is going on, all other storms will remain in Canada, allowing high pressure to intensify over the Plains. This will end up producing highs in the 80's most of this week in Minnesota.

There has also been an increase in humidity, as dew points (blue line on the 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperature and moisture from MesoWest) have edged from the 30's, allowing last week's frost to the lower 50's yesterday and today. Given the flow of warmer air over the top of what's left from last week's cool shot, there were scattered showers and thunderstorms both early yesterday morning, and last night, with the strongest storms across southern Minnesota (see number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). There were even a few reports of gusty winds near Mankato and hail damage in southern Minnesota.

The warmest of the warm air and the most humid air will remain over Minnesota today and tomorrow, so we will have a shot at topping that 87 degree high from April 22. The first 90-degree temperature of the season is possible. Record highs are 93 degrees today and 95 degrees tomorrow. And, the overnight rain will allow southern Minnesota dew points near 60 (yellow on the UCAR hourly dew point map) to even climb when the sun evaporates the water from the wet ground later this morning. over Arkansas and Oklahoma. That's why I'm keeping a 1 in 5 shot at showers and thunderstorms in central Minnesota today and tonight.

The exception will be in northern Minnesota. There is a slightly better chance for storms to redevelop this afternoon. An isolated storm could drop some large hail (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook).

But, Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Air Due Wednesday (With Tuesday Night Storms)

The one weather system that is expected to keep moving is a reinforcing cold front pulled by one of the Canadian lows. That system will push into eastern Canada and the Northeast US by Wednesday, but the western edge of its cold front looks like it will push southwestward through northern and central Minnesota Tuesday night into Wednesday (see the 12Z, 7 AM CDT, Tuesday through Wednesday panels of the NWS WPC short-range forecast maps). The passing front will increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms. I have a 50-50 chance for showers tomorrow night into early Wednesday.

Severe Weather Unlikely, Only Localized Significant Rain

Given the weak winds aloft, the NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasts expect that our Tuesday-Wednesday thunderstorms will probably not be severe (see Days 2 and 3 of the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook). Rainfall isn't expected to be that heavy in general (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but slow-moving thunderstorms could produce pockets with significant rainfall.

After the front comes through, our air flow will be from southern Canada, bringing back slightly cooler and drier air into Minnesota. That will only back our highs down to near 80 on Wednesday and Thursday, but the dew points should ease back into the merely noticeable middle to upper 50's.

This cold front is the reason that the NWS WPC Heat Risk shows the most likely period of very warm temperatures and uncomfortable humidity in Minnesota today and tomorrow (orange on Days 1-2). However, the orange area shrinks by Wednesday.

Probably Warm Weekend, But Uncertain Storm Chances

The forecast gets less certain as we approach the weekend. The main western low looks like it will track into the southern half of the US to the east of the Rockies, so the best chance for important rainfall will remain to our south (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Meanwhile the position of the Northern Plains high gets more uncertain, so I am not sure whether there will be a chance of another front traveling in the main storm track in Canada pushing into the Northern Plains. So, I am leaving highs somewhere between 75 and 85 with at least noticeable humidity.  The chance for storms is uncertain.