St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Unfortunately, the past two to three weeks have produced major weather consequences. While severe storms were part of the story (over 750 reports of wind damage, blue on the NWS Storm Prediction Center storm reports for July 4), heat continues to be the number one threat for weather-related deaths with the European heat wave potentially producing thousands of deaths. A big part of the recent problems in the eastern US were power outages, leaving plenty of people without a safe place to cool down. The French problems were aggravated by a large number of people in northern and central France not having air conditioning, since 100-degree temperatures are quite rare (similar to northern New England and the Lake Superior North Shore). The reason we won't see hundreds of deaths reports in the US cities is because each one of those cities have previously experienced a major heat wave causing hundreds of deaths. In 1995, Chicago experienced nearly 800 deaths (revised upwards from earlier estimates) from an intense heat and humidity outbreak with Milwaukee and St. Louis also having major death tolls. The Desert Southwest suffered deaths from intense heat waves in both 2023 and March 2026, the Pacific Northwest had a four-day outbreak in June 2021, and the middle of the country suffered in 1980.

Each of the US cities affected needed that major heat to recognize the threats from a prolonged heat issue. Follow-ups included cities developing a plan for developing cooling centers and getting vulnerable people who still may not have air conditioning or fans to those refuges. Getting kids indoors during the afternoon, rather than having them outside in pools or water slides is another problem. And, we still struggle with leaving kids and pets in hot cars. The National Weather Service has been developing the Heat Risk forecast to alert people when heat and humidity poses various threats to sensitive groups (for sensitive groups, click on overview; for risks at various levels, click on understanding heat risk). Still, there have been an estimated 20 heat-related deaths in the US in this July outbreak; many of the heat related deaths won't be discovered until later, finding people in hot rooms or finding underlying reasons for natural deaths).

Fewer Minnesota Heat Deaths, But Remember Korey Stringer

In Minnesota, there hasn't been a short-term heat wave producing huge numbers of deaths (estimated to be about 19 people since 1990), but the death of Korey Stringer, a Vikings' offensive lineman in 2001, during a practice with temperatures in the 80's and dew points in the upper 70's. Stringer was also taking supplements, making him more susceptible to heat-related illness, but this case still underlines the heat-related threat. 

No Extreme Minnesota Heat Through This Work Week....But (Read On)

Minnesota has mostly remained out of the worst of the heat during the past few days and will continue to do so through the end of this work week (worst conditions from the Carolinas into Florida and in Texas). However, we will continue to be near the main storm track, which will produce thunderstorm outbreaks at least through Wednesday. 

Storm Chances Begin Again Tonight or Early Tomorrow (Better Tomorrow into Wednesday?)

It appears that the most likely time for these potentially strong thunderstorms will be from tonight into early tomorrow, and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. The main storm system (counterclockwise circulation in northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will first push the stalled front to our southwest (see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) through Minnesota as a warm front, then eventually push the front back to the south as a cold front. That will allow this system to be the focus of showers and thunderstorms, especially from late afternoon to early morning.

The best chance for these storms will be when a weak low pressure system moves along the front. However, the computer forecasts aren't good at detecting or tracking these systems. So, I have an increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms, up to a 50-50 chance late tonight and tomorrow morning with more storms possible during the afternoon. I have a 70 percent chance for Tuesday night and Wednesday storms. However, I am not that confident in the forecast (4-5 of 10 for tonight and tomorrow, 3 of 10 tomorrow night into Wednesday).

Slight Chance for Storm Early Today

And, there is a small chance for some storms early this morning. Strong storms developed last night from Montana into North Dakota (see College of DuPage continental US clean infrared satellite loop). Some of these storms (large yellow blobs) have pushed into Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and western Ontario, but the steering winds shift into the northwest-to-southeast direction over Minnesota (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), so a few of the storms will push into northern and perhaps even central Minnesota early this morning (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop).

Warmest Today (of Days Through Friday), Still Humid

Our best chance of a really warm high (upper 80's to perhaps near 90) will come today, since the chance for lingering clouds will be the smallest of the next three days. Tomorrow, there will be sunny periods between the storm threats early and late, but there will be lingering clouds, so I've knocked the high down to the lower half of the 80's. Wednesday will have the best chance for the front to hang up just to the south of central Minnesota, so we will likely have a lot of clouds with only a few sunny breaks possible. Highs will struggle to get to 80 degrees or beyond.

We now have dew points in the uncomfortable middle 60's (see orange on the UCAR hourly dew point map), except for a pocket of 50's just to our northeast (see lower left numbers on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). That level of humidity will continue with perhaps a chance of even near 70 dew points tomorrow as some storms either pass over or nearby central Minnesota. 

After Wednesday, slightly drier air will push into Minnesota from the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces. That will reduce the chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and make conditions a bit more comfortable. That air won't be much cooler, so highs should remain in the 80's.

However, that northwest flow will have a chance of bringing leftover wildfire smoke from the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces (see EPA fire and smoke map) to Minnesota late in the week.

Early Signs of Intense Heat (Maybe) Returning Sunday into Next Week??

The long-range forecast is showing signs of the strong high pressure area causing the intense heat to get stronger and drift northwestward into the Rockies and Plains. If that happens, there would be the potential to see 90-degree highs return to Minnesota some time late in the weekend into early next week. As noted during our late June and early July warmth, those forecasts aren't that great at predicting how hot it will get along the northern edge of the high, so we'll see whether those forecasts work out. While the chances for storms will likely be small, and won't happen in the core of the hot air mass, it does appear that we will have a smaller chance for showers and thunderstorms late this week than during the middle of the week.

Potential Flooding for Some Areas, But Rain Still Needed

And, it's important for us (still pockets of red or orange, below average streamflow, reports on the Minnesota DNR cooperative stream gauging site) to pick up widespread heavy rain (see Days 1-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), even though there will be some flooding potential (see Days 3-4 of the NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook) for those areas that picked up heavy rain during the past few days (see yellow and red areas when you set the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota rainfall map to yesterday's date and the last 7 days). 

June 2026 Weather Summary Available

The top story in my completed June 2026 St. Cloud weather summary is insufficient drought relief (set NWS Water Prediction Center Minnesota rainfall map to the month of June). While parts of central Minnesota from Wheaton to Hutchinson had over 5 inches of June rainfall (red), large portions of Minnesota merely were in the green (two inches, below average for June). The St. Cloud Airport was near average (3.62 inches, average June rainfall 3.75 inches).