St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Potentially 10th Warmest July (Could Easily Climb the List More)

The current heat wave (at least 3 consecutive days with highs of 90 degrees or higher) extended through yesterday. The slightly less humid air (dew points in the 60's between 3-5 PM on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up) still produced a 91 degree high at the St. Cloud Airport with a maximum heat index of 93 (see NWS: last 24 hours of St. Cloud observations). That's 11 July days with at least a 90-degree high, the most since the 15 July days in 2006. After a brief drop of the average July temperature (74.1 degrees through last Thursday) due to the cooler days a week ago. However, the average through yesterday is now 75.2 degrees, which would rank as the 9th warmest July in St. Cloud records, even warmer than 2006.

The slightly less humid air (dew points in the middle to upper 60's; see UCAR hourly dew point map) has allowed low temperatures to fall out of the 70's. We have seen 3 lows of 70 or warmer this July, although last July had 4 days (average is 1.7 days). That makes 4 for this year so far (1 in June), above the average of 3 days.

Today is likely to be hotter than yesterday (highs in the lower 90's) with dew points again in the upper 60's to perhaps lower 70's. So, the heat indices may be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday (see temperature, dew points, and heat indices from 88 and up on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). While the heat indices are expected to be short of 95 degrees in northeastern Minnesota, many businesses and homes do not have air conditioning, so the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for today.

With Extreme Rain Shortfall Main Weather Related Problem

Meanwhile, St. Cloud has seen little rain since July 8. If we stayed at 2.15 inches of July rainfall, which would be 1.45 inches below the July average, the rain shortfall over the past 12 months (since August 1, 2025) would be 19.43 inches, 7.78 inches below average and the 10th driest August-July in St. Cloud records and the lowest since 1987-1988.

That's why the Mississippi River gauge below the dam in St. Cloud has streamflow close to the record low level (brown area on the graph when you click on the easternmost St. Cloud site). The general streamflow in Minnesota is at the lowest 10 percent of flows along the Mississippi River through Little Falls and again from St. Cloud southward.

Rain Threat Sometime Thursday and/or Thursday Night

Thursday and Thursday night is the best hope for producing major rainfall in Minnesota (see NWS WPC Excessive Rain Outlook Days 3-4). A storm will come out of the trough (shift from northwest to southwest flow on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) along the West Coast and push through the Dakotas by tomorrow afternoon. At this point, it appears that western and northwestern Minnesota have the best chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day on Thursday, but central and southern Minnesota will have a better chance for storms on Thursday night. The storms could linger across south central, east central, and southeastern Minnesota part of Friday (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The potential severe weather threat is relatively small (category 1 of 5 on the Day 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlook). 

The dew points will likely climb back into the oppressively 70's tonight and tomorrow, but how hot we get tomorrow will depend on how many leftover clouds from tonight's storms in the Dakotas hang around. So, I have a chance to extend the heat wave tomorrow (high upper 80's to lower 70's), that would put the heat index in the 95-100 range, enough for at least a heat advisory. However, more clouds would keep the highs in the lower half of the 80's.

Drying Out and A Bit Cooler Saturday and Sunday

We will get drier air from the eastern slopes of the Rockies after tomorrow's storm pulls far enough to our southeast. Highs would likely be in the 80's.

Uncertain Chances for Storms Sunday Night into Mid-Week

The persistently hot weather pattern will continue to be in the Intermountain West (see NWS Heat Risk for Saturday and Sunday). Some of the heat will push into Minnesota. At this time, the hottest air would move in during Sunday night with a cold front coming through early Monday, so it may not produce another scorching day. However, if the forecast timing is off by half a day, we could end up with a sweltering Monday. After that, Canadian air is forecast to push into either the Great Lakes or Ontario, so we would either be on the cool side of the front or in the area that would have a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the middle of next week. So, I have little confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday.