Sunday, January 25, 2026  1:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

In the Deep Freeze, Only Watching Severe Winter Storm

Weekend Snow and Ice Storm Worst Effects Today and Tomorrow

The arctic air has now penetrated to the Interior South with single digit temperatures as far south as Oklahoma and northern Texas yesterday afternoon (see 3 PM Saturday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), setting the stage for the major snow and ice storm from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic (see College of DuPage continental US loop). As of last evening, there were 8 inch snow totals in Nebraska and Kansas and even Arkansas (also see the NWS Central Plains snowfall reports map) The bigger concern is the sleet accumulations over an inch with some areas in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi climbing over 2 inches and the freezing rain accumulations of half an inch to three-quarters of an inch, happening as far east as northern Georgia and the Carolinas (also move the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map to the Interior Gulf Coast or the Southeast; sideways "S" means freezing rain, triangle with do or question mark mean sleet or ice). The impact on air travel has already been huge, but I still expect huge problems from downed power lines in much colder than average temperatures. 

Today, the dangerous weather continues in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley with the snow spreading to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast and the ice threat will continue in the Carolinas (see Day 1 composite snowfall and ice from NWS WPC). The snow will continue into New England from tonight through tomorrow (see Day 2 composite snowfall and ice from NWS WPC). The NWS winter storm warnings are in effect from eastern New Mexico to New England with ice storm warnings from east Texas to Tennessee and in the Carolinas and Georgia.

And, here's a story about how using a weather app can be misleading during a winter storm, since the transition from one threat to another can be drastic.

While much of the country is now at least 20 degrees colder than average, the coldest temperatures remain in Minnesota. 

After Friday's extremes (high of -10 degrees, coldest St. Cloud high since the -17 degree high on January 30, 2019, low of -23), the winds eased yesterday, but the low temperature fell to 26, still not quite as low as the -27 low on January 21 of last year. But, the worst wind chills were in the -30's, not the -40's (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) like Friday morning.

Similar Cold to Yesterday, But Less Wind

This morning, the winds are lighter, but the calm winds has again allowed temperatures to fall into the -20's with even a few -30's (see near midnight, 06Z, on the  The light winds have only allowed a few scattered wind chills in the -30's and -40's (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up)

Rest of Cold Outbreak Through Monday

The worst of the cold will be this morning and again (temperature-wise) Sunday night. I would expect a good chance for a cold weather advisory again Sunday night and Monday. See details below:

Second Shot of Arctic Air Tonight Through Tomorrow Morning

The first lobe of the coldest air in North America (green shading on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) moved out of Minnesota after yesterday morning's coldest temperatures of the outbreak. Despite clear skies and calm winds, temperatures are merely in the minus teens with only a few -20's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

The National Weather Service has limited the extreme cold warning to northwest Minnesota, with a cold weather advisory across northern Minnesota as close to us as Brainerd and Hinckley.

However, there is a second lobe of the cold air in central and southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This morning, temperatures in that area range from the -20's to the -30's with even a -40 or two (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

That lobe of cold air will move over Minnesota by this evening. We have a weak clipper going by this morning and midday with a few clouds and a slight chance for a flurry. Then, the northwest breeze will blow, but wind chills will mostly be in the minus teens this afternoon. High temperatures could nudge above zero for a couple of hours this afternoon. 

Another Really Cold Night Tonight

Tonight, we will have a shot at another low in the -20's. There will be a bit of a breeze during the evening. That will keep evening temperatures in the minus teens, but will create some wind chills in the -40 to -25 range. The winds will lighten a bit during the early morning hours. If we go calm, we should have another low in the -20's (with a slight chance to reach the -28 degree January 26 record cold low), but lows may hover in the minus teens with those cold wind chills if the winds remain. Either way, I would expect the NWS to issue another cold weather advisory with a cold weather warning in northern Minnesota for tonight into tomorrow morning. 

Cold Eases During Work Week, But Only Somewhat

On Monday, we will see some moderation, beginning a streak of high temperatures back above zero to perhaps near 10. While the coldest of the cold air will have moved out, there will still be colder than average air hanging near the Minnesota-Ontario border (use right arrows to advance the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map). It will be difficult for highs to climb into the upper teens and lows will remain in the minus single digits to perhaps -15. The last of the cold air appears to move past Minnesota by Thursday or Friday, but that forecast is for 5,000 feet above the ground. The low-level cold air may be more stubborn then that.

However, the leftover arctic air will continue to be quite dry, so there will be little chance for significant snowfall. 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Sunday 1/25/2026: Mixed sun and clouds with a slight chance of a snow flurry. Not quite as ridiculously cold. High: between -2 and +3. (record cold high: -13 in 1972). Winds: light during the morning, NW 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Spotty wind chill: between -25 and -10 during the morning, in the minus teens during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, light winds, and very cold temperatures again. Low: between -24 and -18 (record cold low: -28 in 1950). Winds: NW 5-10 MPH during the evening, W 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Spotty wind chill: between -40 and -25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Monday 1/26/2026: Not quite as frigid after a cold start. Sunny during the morning, some afternoon clouds and turning breezy. A slight chance for a late day flurry High: between +10 and +15. (record cold high: -12 in 1950). Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, SW 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -10 during the morning, between -12 and +5 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance for an evening flurry, then partial clearing, breezy, but not nearly as cold. Perhaps a flurry. Low: between -3 and +3. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 1/27/2026: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy, and colder, but nothing like the previous weekend. High: between +3 and +8. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Tuesday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and a bit colder. Low: between -13 and -5. Winds: NW 5 MPH during the evening, SW 5 MPH during the early morning. Spotty wind chill: between -25 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 1/28/2026: Continued partly sunny and colder than average with a bit of a breeze. High: between +3 and +8. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -25 and -10 during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and continued cold. Low: between -13 and -5. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 1/29/2026: Continued partly sunny and colder than average. High: between +3 and +12. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Spotty wind chill: in minus teens during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Still colder than average through the end of next week, but uncertain how quickly temperatures will moderate?? Little chance for significant precipitation??  

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Sunday through Monday, 7 Monday night and Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday.

Yesterday's High: -5°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Sunday): -15°F; 

St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Sunday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Sunday): None; Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Sunday): -27°F at 11 AM Saturday 

Next Update: Monday, January 26, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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