St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Extremely Warm, Windy, and Dry Yesterday....

Mother Nature flipped the switch to warm and windy yesterday afternoon (see 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) as highs reached the 60's after more than a 40-degree swing from the morning lows in the lower 20's (see red line on the 7-day St. Cloud temperature and moisture graph from MesoWest). However, the dew points remained in the teens and the 20's (see blue line on the 7-day St. Cloud temperature and moisture graph from MesoWest), thus, the extreme fire danger in southern and central Minnesota.

There are a few burning wildfires in Minnesota at this time.

...Warm and Dry, But Not as Windy Today

Given the warm weather expected today and tomorrow, the fire danger will remain elevated. Today will be slightly warmer (highs in the lower 70's), but not as windy (top wind gust of 34 MPH in St. Cloud; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), so I expect the fire danger to remain yellow, rather than red, except in northeastern Minnesota (see NWS Duluth Northeastern Minnesota weather story). Eventually, the modest moisture to our south (dew points in the 30's and 40's from Iowa southward on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) will push tomorrow's relative humidity higher. Still, the stronger winds and even warmer temperatures (highs near or in the 80's) will keep the fire danger very high with some pockets of extreme fire danger.

Better Chance of Some Thursday Rain

The one way to ease the fire danger is to get a lot of rain. The next chance for significant rainfall will be on Thursday as the low pressure system off the West Coast (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop). The updated forecasts have delayed the time the front goes through to the afternoon, so both central and eastern Minnesota will have a better chance for showers and thunderstorms (note that the red quarter inch or more line is now in central and south central Minnesota on the Day 3 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). 

There will be a threat for severe thunderstorms once again in east central, south central, and southeastern Minnesota (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 3 convective outlook when it is updated after 2 AM). Central Minnesota will have a better chance for thunderstorms than we had last Friday during the midday into the afternoon. There will also be a potential severe weather threat, but it won't be quite as high as in southern Minnesota. 

Potential Record Warm Wednesday and Wednesday Night Temperatures

Wednesday will also approach record warm highs (April 22 record warm high is 86) with the overnight low on Wednesday night near the record warm low (April 23 record warm low is 60, but the temperature will likely be cooler Thursday evening than during the early morning hours Thursday).

Friday and Weekend Cooler

Friday through Sunday will be cooler than Wednesday's near record highs, but will remain warmer than average. Highs will be near 60 on Friday, but back in the 60's on Saturday. Sunday might be warmer, but that will depend on any clouds from the approaching storm mentioned below.

Any Significant Rain Chance Beyond Thursday?

The latest computer forecasts have the possibility of significant rainfall Sunday night into early next week (see Days 6-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The storm would be some combination of the low off the California coast and another low in the main northern storm track near Alaska (see counterclockwise circulation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) The forecasts are consistent with each other, but have jumped the position of the low two states from the past days. So, I would punt the forecast for early next week at this time.