Monday, January 19, 2026  1:40 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Serious Cold Today, Brutal Cold Late in the Week?

The arctic cold pushed into Minnesota during the second half of yesterday, setting the stage for a colder than average next 7-10 days. However, we won't approach historic cold until the second wave pushes into Minnesota on Thursday night through at least Friday.

30 Years Ago, MLK Jr. Day Was as Cold as Any Day in Recent Memory

St. Cloud, MN has only hit -40 degrees 4 times since 1900 (set NOAAData from NWS Twin Cities to St. Cloud area, Monthly summarized data, time range to period of record, por, variable to Min Temp, summary to Number of Days, and threshold to <= -40). One of those days was January 19, which was also Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, of 1994 (see table of St. Cloud temperatures from Weather Underground). This was the last of 7 consecutive days of temperatures no warmer than zero (set NOAAData from NWS Twin Cities to St. Cloud area, daily data for a month, and the time to 1994-01). That was one day short of the longest sub-zero streak in St. Cloud records, which was set in 1899. There was also wind by sunrise, plunging wind chills towards -50. The reason I remember this so well? My daughter had chicken pox, and gave it to me!

This is in contrast to the most recent -40 day on February 2, 1996, which set the Minnesota record for the coldest temperature (-60 in Tower). This was the last of 5 complete days colder than zero, but produced 6 straight lows of -30 or colder. That day had no wind.

Cold Enough Today and Tomorrow for Cold Weather Advisories

The current cold isn't quite to that level. The wind chills dove into the minus -30's overnight in St. Cloud, thanks to wind gusts of 35-40 MPH yesterday afternoon and evening and still above 25 MPH overnight (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). There have been several wind chills in the -30's, but I haven't seen a -40 quite yet (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest wind gusts, visibility, temperatures, and wind chills). The National Weather Service has a cold weather advisory for nearly all of Minnesota until noon today (areas from North Dakota to Pennsylvania and West Virginia also have cold weather advisories). Note that exposed skin can freeze in 30 minutes or less with a wind chill of -25 or colder (light blue) and in 10 minutes or less with a wind chill of -35 or colder (dark blue).

The combination of wind and fluffy snow on the ground (amounting to between an inch and an inch and a half) has closed roads in far northwestern Minnesota from Ada through Grand Forks to the Canadian border (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports). The North Dakota side of the Red River also has no travel advised, including Fargo and Wahpeton. I-29 is closed from Grand Forks to the Canadian border. Otherwise, there are only a few roads with snow over parts of the road in Minnesota. If you plan on any travel today or tonight, you should pack your cold weather survival kit in your vehicle, in case you get stuck.

The cold air mass that we will have today and tonight will be no colder than what we have already seen this month or in December.

You can see the northwest-to-southeast flow pattern on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop. Most of the extreme cold has clear skies, so you can see the advance of the blues into Minnesota overnight (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), but the coldest of the cold air (greens, as cold as the middle clouds producing the snow in eastern New England on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) is surrounding Hudson Bay. That's where yesterday afternoon temperatures were in the minus teens and -20's (see yesterday's 3 PM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). That coldest of the cold is caught up in the counterclockwise cold low pressure system over Hudson Bay, so it will head towards northern Ontario over the next day or two. We will get this sideswipe from the cold today through tomorrow morning. High temperatures this afternoon will recover to a couple of degrees above zero with those -35 to -20 wind chills through midday. The winds will still be blowing at 10-20 MPH. Tonight, the winds will lighten, but some clouds will move in. So, lows could be in the minus single digits or in the minus teens. If there are puffs of wind of 5 MPH, some spotty areas will see wind chills in the -30 to -15 range.

Some Moderation and Perhaps a Little Snow Tuesday and Wednesday

We will get a slight amount of relief on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will climb to near 10 on Tuesday afternoon and remain in plus territory Tuesday night. Highs will be in the teens on Wednesday. We will get a break from the -20's wind chills from the middle of Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. There will be a chance for light snow or flurries. At this point, the computer forecasts are keeping the best potential for another dusting to 2 inches in southern Minnesota (set tab to 18 UTC, noon CST, Wed on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance), but there is a small chance that the steadiest snow could end up here.

Coldest Air in North America Hitting Minnesota Thursday Night Through Sunday?

While we moderate into the middle of the week, that coldest of the cold air will swirl around Hudson Bay (see blue and white areas on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map), then swoop southward towards Minnesota by Thursday night (use right arrow to advance in time). The major change in the forecast is that this southward push is stronger than what had been forecast late last week or earlier in the weekend. The latest forecasts push the coldest of the cold air into Minnesota Thursday night through Saturday. If that happens, actual temperatures will likely fall below zero on Thursday afternoon, possibly drop into the -20's Thursday night, then have trouble getting back to -10 on Friday. Saturday would also be another potential sub-zero day. There will also be 10-20 MPH winds with this cold air outbreak on Friday. If that happens (it's harder to get to -20 or colder with wind), wind chills would easily be colder than the -35 levels (exposed skin freezes in 10 minutes or less with a wind chill of -35 or colder) and would be in the -40's, perhaps even -50. Right now, I am hedging about pushing both the temperatures well down in the -20's with strong winds, but there is the possibility that Friday and Saturday could be 'stay indoors days' due to the brutal cold.

Chances for Record Cold for Friday and Saturday? Slim

The winds are expected to ease up Friday night, which could give St. Cloud a shot at its first -30 low since January 30-31, 2019 and a second straight day of sub-zero highs on Saturday. Record cold highs for Friday and Saturday are -16, so that would be a hard temperature to reach (Feb. 2, 1996 had a high of -20, tying St. Cloud's coldest high temperature on record). The record cold low on Saturday is -42 (temperatures colder than -40 have only been reached in St. Cloud earlier than the 1920's). Friday's record cold low of -33 might be achievable if the winds die out quickly Friday evening. As I noted in the December 2025 weather summary, St. Cloud hasn't set a record cold low during the winter months since December 18, 2013.

After that, the cold shouldn't be quite as extreme, but the computer forecasts disagree on how quickly the worst of the cold will move out.

Much of the country to the east of the Rockies will share our cold, although they won't be as cold as Minnesota or the Dakotas. That could also allow a major snowstorm over the weekend in an area that doesn't deal well with the snow (see Days 6 and 7 on the NWS WPC Day 4-7 winter weather outlook).

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 1/19/2026: Sunny with a few afternoon clouds, still windy, and bitterly cold. A slight chance for a stray snowflake. High: between 0 and +5. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -35 and -20 during the morning, between -25 and -15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly clear, lighter winds, and bitterly cold again. Low: between -15 and -5. Winds: W 5 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -30 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 1/20/2026: Sunshine through some high clouds during the morning, but more clouds during the afternoon. Perhaps some late day light snow or flurries, lighter winds, and not quite as bitterly cold. High: between 8 and 13. Winds: SW 5 MPH during the morning, 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -10 during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a chance for occasional light snow or flurries. Not quite as cold. Between little or no snow and 2 inches of new snow are possible between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Low: between +3 and +8. Winds: light S-SW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Wednesday 1/21/2026: Mostly cloudy with a chance of occasional light snow or flurries. Breezy and colder than average, but not as cold as Sunday and Monday. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH during the morning, NW 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and colder again. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -25 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday 1/22/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and colder with occasional light snow or flurries. Serious wind chills during the afternoon. Morning temperatures between +3 and +8, falling below zero during the afternoon. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: between -30 and -15 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Partly clear and breezy with brutal cold. Low: between -25 and -15. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -45 and -25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 1/23/2026: Useless sunshine, brutal cold, and dangerous wind chills continue. High: between -15 and -5. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -45 and -25 during the morning, between -35 and -20 during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Another day of brutal cold Saturday (highs below zero, lows in the -20's or perhaps -30's if the winds die down)?? Cold easing Sunday and Monday, but the question is how fast???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Sunday through Monday, 6 Monday night through Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday through Thursday, 5 Friday through next Sunday???

Yesterday's High: 12°F; Overnight Low (through 1 AM Monday): -9°F; Top Wind Gust (through 1 AM Monday): 41 MPH at 6:26 and 7:03 PM Sunday
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 1 AM Monday): 0.06 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): TBA; Coldest Wind Chill (through 1 AM Monday): -32°F at 11 PM Sunday

Next Update: Tuesday, January 20, 2026 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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