Wednesday, February 18, 2026  2:35 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Snow Total Will be in Feet in NE MN, But Some Slushy Central MN Snow This PM

Snow and Mixed Precipitation to Our North...

We had one last mild day with a high in the middle 40's (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), but the West Coast storm moved into the Dakotas overnight (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). The persistent precipitation (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) was the snow across northern Minnesota (see asterisks from 00Z, 6 PM CST, and later on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Duluth had 1.8 inches of snow as of midnight (on NWS Duluth NOAA data, select observed weather tab and daily climate report for Duluth) and Two Harbors had 3.5 inches. The North Shore was receiving snowfall at 1-3 inches per hour, so there is the potential for over 10 inches of snow (see NWS blizzard warning) with more than 4 inches likely over the rest of northern Minnesota (see NWS winter storm warning). 

Further to the south, temperatures have fallen below freezing in Brainerd, Wadena, and Park Rapids, so there has been some wet snow, sleet (triangles on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), and freezing rain (sideways S or question mark) near midnight. These areas will have the precipitation turn to all snow with the potential for between 1 and 4 inches of snow.

The MnDOT Minnesota road reports shows at least slush on the roads north of Park Rapids, Pine River, McGregor, and Kettle River.

...With Rain Showers Here

Meanwhile, rain showers and a few thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) have rotated around the southern and eastern side of the low (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). Central and southern Minnesota will have a more prolonged break from the rain during the early morning hours as temperatures continue to fall.

Better Chance for Some Slushy Snow in Central MN This PM and Evening

The low will move from the eastern Dakotas to Wisconsin, but it will take all day. The most persistent precipitation will remain over the northern third of Minnesota, where the most snowfall is expected. There will be occasional showers in parts of central Minnesota and temperatures aloft will cool enough to produce snow in those showers today, especially this afternoon and evening. It now appears that ground temperatures will be colder than 35 degrees in St. Cloud, so we will have a shot at between a dusting and 3 inches of slush or snow accumulating between noon and midnight (set tab to 12 UTC, 6 AM CST, Thurs., on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The National Weather Service now has a winter weather advisory until 9 PM tonight covering St. Cloud, Willmar, Morris, and Alexandria.

Mainly Flurries, Except Along North Shore Thursday

The initial low will stall and weaken over Wisconsin, so tomorrow will still produce periods of accumulating snow in northeastern Minnesota, especially along the North Shore (set tab to 00 UTC Fri., 6 PM CST Thurs., on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance) That will bring the potential snowfall to between 1 and 2 feet along the North Shore. The rest of us will continue to be cloudy with an occasional snow shower or flurry.

Second Storm to Produce Snow Coating Mostly Over Southern MN Thurs Nt-Fri

The second storm from interior California (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) is forecast to reach southern Iowa or Missouri by tomorrow evening, then move into Lake Michigan by Friday morning. While there is still some variation in the computer forecasts for this storm (hopefully resolving today as the storm will be within the US upper air observing network this morning), southern Minnesota will have the best chance for a lighter snowfall (between 1 and 3 inches) from late tomorrow night into Friday (set tab to 00 UTC Sat., 6 PM CST Fri., on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). That track would only produce a few flurries in central Minnesota, but we will remain with mostly cloudy skies all the way through Friday.

Cooling Trend From 40's Pre-Dawn to Near Freezing By Late Today...

And, we will be finally done with the warmest temperatures. While readings will likely climb into the 40's as the rain tapers off early this morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), temperatures will fall back into the middle 30's by midday and get to 34 degrees or colder by this afternoon, making a light accumulation of snow or slush possible this afternoon and evening.

...To Lower 30's Tomorrow, Upper 20's Friday, Teens to Near 20 Weekend

Temperatures will be back in the middle 20's by tomorrow morning and only reach the lower 30's by afternoon. Behind the second storm system, the north to northwest winds will get strong again and colder air will move in. Temperatures will only rebound to the upper 20's during the day on Friday, then fall back to near 20, maybe even the upper teens by Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the teens to perhaps about 20 degrees with lows in the plus single digits. There will be a persistent wind, so wind chills will be in the range between -15 and 0. That's not the serious levels we saw during the second half of January, but it will be a lot colder than we've been during the first half of February. High temperatures will remain in the upper teens or lower 20's on Monday, and climb higher to near seasonable levels by Tuesday.

After the second storm goes by, there doesn't appear to be any major precipitation threats through the middle of next week (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"  

Wednesday 2/18/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and colder with occasional light snow or flurries. Between a dusting and 2 inches of wet snow could accumulate during the afternoon and evening. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: E 5-10 MPH early, shifting to N 8-15 MPH by mid-morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 50%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and a bit cooler. Perhaps some light snow or flurries during the evening. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40% evening, 20% late at night.

Thursday 2/19/2026: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a flurry. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy and windy with a slight chance for a flurry. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 10-25 MPH with higher gusts early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 2/20/2026: Mostly cloudy, windy, and colder. Perhaps an occasional flurry. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Friday Night: Partial clearing, still breezy, and colder. Maybe a flurry. Low: between 8 and 13. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill: in the minus single digits. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 2/21/2026: Mixed clouds and sun with an occasional flurry, breezy, and seasonably cold. High: between 17 and 22. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Clearing, breezy, and colder. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 2/22/2026: Partly sunny with a slight chance for a flurry and continued cold. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Highs still in the teens to near 20 Monday, then seasonably cold through mid-week??? Maybe an early week storm???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 7 Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 3 Saturday through Monday. 

Yesterday's High: 46°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 37°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): 0.20 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): TBA

Next Update: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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