St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Cool Again Yesterday, But Transition Begins Today

For the past few days, the temperature range has been a bit cooler than average, especially on the high temperature (top of bar not reaching the green-red transition on the NWS St. Cloud April high-low temperature graph). Note that there was actually a second storm that moved southeastward from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into northern Minnesota (see College of DuPage North American mid-level water vapor loop). That kept clouds around for much of the day (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), but the radar echoes (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) dropped very little precipitation (see very few rain reports underneath the radar echoes between 18Z, 1 PM yesterday, and 06Z, 1 AM early this morning on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

However, the southwest-to-northeast flow has set up from the central Plains and Rockies southward, on the eastern flank of the eastern Pacific low (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop). That has pushed the warm (Kansas and Oklahoma highs in the 80's on the NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) and moderately humid air (dew points of 55 degrees, yellow, or higher on the UCAR hourly dew point map).

Still Average or Cooler Today and Tomorrow (Showers Tomorrow PM into Evening)

It will take a couple of days for the really warm air to push into central Minnesota. Today, we will have more sunshine, although there will be afternoon clouds. Highs will climb into the lower 50's. Tomorrow will be a cloudier day as the main front, separating the really warm air from Kansas southward and the cooler air over us, will push into Iowa. That will raise the chance for showers and thunderstorms, although the severe weather threat is very small (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 2 convective outlook). Our best shot will be tomorrow afternoon into the evening (see Day 2 of the NWS quantitative precipitation forecast). The persistent clouds may limit high temperatures to 50 degrees or perhaps even a bit cooler.

In the Very Warm and Noticeably Humid Air Sunday

The latest forecast information now shows the bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity pushing off to our north and east by midnight on Saturday night. This opens the door for a very warm Sunday (highs in the 70's, perhaps in the 80's). That would put St. Cloud close to the April 12 record warm high of 82. Gusty winds will make the warmer temperatures quite possible in southern and central Minnesota. Dew points will be in the lower to perhaps middle 50's, making the humidity noticeable for the first time during the year. 

Some Late Sunday Showers

The cold front will make a return trip through Minnesota on Sunday night, setting off a chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, there won't be a strong low fueling the front going by, so I have a lower chance for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Sunday night (40%) than I have for Saturday.

A Bit Cooler With Uncertain Storm Threat (Possible Severe Weather in Some Part of Minnesota)

We will be on the cool side of the front on Monday and Tuesday, but not far into a cooler air mass, so high temperatures will climb into the 60's with 70 possible. And, the humidity will continue at least noticeable Monday. The chance for daily showers and thunderstorms is more uncertain, but there will be a threat, especially each afternoon and evening. At this point, the chance for severe storms looks to be high on Monday afternoon and evening (see Days 4-6 of NWS Storm Prediction Center long-range convective outlook), but southern Minnesota could have a better chance than central Minnesota.

So, it would be a good time to go over the action steps during severe thunderstorms. Next Monday begins Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. 

The front will remain in the vicinity of Minnesota for a good chunk of next work week. That would make the temperatures uncertain on any day, but at least there would be a chance for rain much of the week.