St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Sunday-Monday Storm Produced Far Less Than Expected Rain....

The severe storms were limited to northwestern Iowa and especially Kansas and Missouri, but a new round of showers and thunderstorms pushed from the eastern Dakotas and Nebraska into much of Minnesota overnight (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). This produced significant rainfall in the parts of central Minnesota that didn't get much rain on Sunday and Sunday night. In St. Cloud, another 0.51 inch of rain fell through 1 AM (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). Twin Cities International Airport had 0.53 inch, Duluth picked up 0.47 inch, and Alexandria got 0.33 inch.

When we have to rely on thunderstorms to bring major drought relief (see US Drought Monitor), there will be gaps and holes, especially when there are stronger thunderstorms upwind of us. This is what happened in much of Minnesota during the Sunday-Monday storm. Some of the forecasts had the potential for at least an inch over most of Minnesota with up to 3 inches in some areas. Instead, only south central Minnesota and a small area to the northwest of the Twin Cities got even an inch of rain (dark green or yellow) over the two days (set NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota rainfall map to yesterday's date and last 2 days time period). A large swath of central Minnesota picked up less than half an inch (blue from the Rainy River area to near Appleton. That's because the strongest storms, which produced Sunday's tornadoes and wind damage in southern Minnesota, shut down a lot of the heavier rain-producing storms to the north, so significant rainfall was spotty. And, having enough middle-level winds to produce severe weather meant that the storms moved rather quickly and tended not to repeat over a single area. 

...So Low River and Lake Levels

The net result is the continuation of the dry conditions which began late last summer. The low rainfall amounts have produced very low flow in some streams and rivers in central Minnesota (see orange and red markers on the Minnesota DNR streamflow map or the USGS National Water Dashboard). Yes, there is still high water (light blue) in pockets of the Boundary Waters due to the melting of the much heavier snowfall.

Early April Highs and Potential Frost This Morning

In the aftermath of the Sunday-Monday storm, we have returned to early April-like temperatures.

Yesterday's highs ranged from the middle 40's in northern Minnesota to the middle 50's in east central Minnesota (see yesterday's NWS WPC 4 PM CDT North America zoom-in map). The cold pocket of air that pushed from the Canadian Prairie Provinces into northern Minnesota (see counterclockwise circulation from College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) kept dew points in the middle 40's, but drier air has pushed in overnight, allowing the dew points to fall back into the 30's statewide (see blue areas on the UCAR hourly dew point map).

That drying, along with the clearing skies (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop) has allowed temperatures to fall into the 30's in much of central Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Having many of the dew points remaining in the middle 30's may allow much of Minnesota to avoid a frost just after sunrise, but it will be a close call in some areas.

Any Breezy, Warm Day Will Still Produce Elevated Fire Danger (Only Light Rain Amounts Possible Friday Into Saturday)

That drier air means that any chances for rain later this week (Friday and Saturday) will again have the problem of enough showers aloft to produce radar echoes, but a lot of the rain will evaporate as it heads through the drier air near the ground. So, the potential rainfall for the rest of the week isn't good (see all days of the  NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The best chance for rain still appears to be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, but the precipitation amounts are likely to be small if anything.

The cooler temperatures reduced the wildfire threat yesterday, despite strong winds. However, the return of highs in the 60's will increase the potential for new fires. The potential for extreme fire danger will be high in northern Minnesota tomorrow. And, the fires continue in northern Minnesota (see EPA fire and smoke map), although they are now mostly contained.

Highs Return to the 60's Today Through Saturday

Beyond this morning, temperatures will be milder the rest of this week into the weekend. However, high temperatures are likely to remain in the 60's today through Saturday. There is a chance for low temperatures to be in the middle 30's in the colder parts of central Minnesota early tomorrow, so again, cover those sensitive plants.

Return of 70's Sunday (80's Memorial Day?)

Finally, on Sunday, warmer air from the west will finally push out the leftovers from the Canadian air that will be around during the middle and end of the work week. That will be our next shot at highs in the 70's. This warmer weather (highs potentially in the 80's? a few 90's??) will persist through Memorial Day into the middle of next week. There may eventually be a shot at showers and thunderstorms, depending on the path and timing of a low moving through the Rockies.