Thursday, October 9, 2025  2:10 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

When Will The Dry Trend Ease? That Depends on (Ew!) Long-Range Forecast

Our major precipitation turn around from being very wet during June and July (12.47 inches, 5.12 inches above average) to being dry from the start of August on (now 3.45 inches, 4.34 inches below average) rolls on. That problem is shared by much of Minnesota to the north and east of Morris and Alexandria (yellow and red areas on the NWS Water Prediction Service, set time to yesterday, period to last 90 days, and departure from normal). As noted in my September 2025 St. Cloud weather summary, there has been a recent trend of significant dry spells at least towards the end of the growing seasons in the past 5 years. This keeps my mind on how difficult long-range forecasting is.

What's Behind Our Fall and Winter Long-Range Forecasts?

Much of the discussion of long range forecasting by those who believe in long-range forecasting focuses on whether ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warmer than average (El Nino) or cooler than average (La Nina). This method tends to yield better prediction results in the US Northern Plains (warmer than average) during the winter season when there is a strong El Nino. That's because you can actually link the warm temperatures to more Pacific low pressure, which tends to set up frequent southwest-to-northeast steering winds over at least part of the US. It is also a bit more predictable since the overall steering wind pattern tends to lock into a single pattern for a good 6-10 weeks during the winter months (very little sunshine over the poles compared to the tropics, so the temperature difference across the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes tends to be consistent). However, the spring and fall are transition seasons and the steering wind pattern can change (note our recent changes from major heat at the start of the month when the flow was southwest to northeast, to our current northwest to southeast pattern, which brought in cooler temperatures and our first freeze of the season). At the same time, we have been forecast to end the El Nino event of 2023 and 2024, changing over to a La Nina by late spring or summer of this year. That transition has been slower than average.

This is especially notable in the busted Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast for 2025. The forecast for above average activity was based on the development of La Nina by now. There is a good link between an El Nino and reduced hurricane development over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The warmer than average air on the Pacific coast of Central America produces large clusters of thunderstorms, which tend to produce stronger upper level winds over the western arms of the Atlantic Ocean. Those stiff breezes tend to interfere with hurricane development in the Gulf and Caribbean because they push the eye wall clouds off to the flank of the storm. Those eye wall thunderstorms need to be right near the center of the storm to produce enough outflow to drop the central pressure of the storm. It was thought that this season wouldn't have those strong winds due to the developing La Nina. Instead, the La Nina event has been slower to develop. On top of that, there are other factors that influence the large middle latitude circulations. Apparently, the very hot season from northern Africa into south central Asia has produced a lot of dry sinking desert air over the eastern end of the Atlantic Basin. That has seemed to push the active thunderstorms in the east to west tropical flow over Africa and the Atlantic further south than usual. When we have seen significant storms develop (like Erin, number 5, Gabrielle, number 7, and Humberto, number 8), they have intensified rapidly because the water temperatures in the western Atlantic have been well above average. However, the persistent high pressure over the US has kept southwest-to-northeast flow over the East Coast, steering the storms back into the Atlantic.

In my view, these forecasts for the intermediate seasons will struggle for accuracy due to the inconsistent location of the main storm track during the transition seasons and the over-dependence on the El Nino-La Nina cycle as the primary indicator of long-range weather.

Little Chance of Rain Today Through Saturday (and Not as Cold as Early Week)

Our dry trend will continue through Saturday. We will have a cold front come through late this afternoon, but the lack of moisture isn't producing many clouds right now either in the US or Canadian Prairies (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). We will merely have a 1 in 5 shot for a late day or early evening rain shower. After that, we should be dry at least through midnight on Saturday night. Temperatures will be milder than they were the past couple of days. Highs will be in the upper 60's to near 70 today, back in the lower 60's tomorrow, and in the middle 60's on Saturday. Lows may drop into the upper 30's on Friday night, but it shouldn't be as cold as yesterday morning.

Good Chance for Sunday (Light?) Showers

On Sunday, a strong low pressure system off British Columbia (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) will push a cold front towards Minnesota. Note that there is some mid-level moisture over Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas (blue and white areas), which came from flow in the upper levels over eastern Pacific Hurricane Priscilla. That additional moisture will be available to the cold front, so we will have a 50-50 shot at showers and thunderstorms on Sunday (see Day 3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The rainfall amounts may not be great, but at least there will be a chance.

More Rain Possible Middle of Next Week (?)

Monday now appears to be a sunny and drier day, but more storms from the eastern Pacific will push near the US-Canadian border, bringing a series of shower chances to Minnesota from Tuesday through the middle of next week (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). It's too early to pin down the track of the storm or the best chance for showers, but at least there will be rain in the forecast on more days next week.

You can check out the latest fall color reports for Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 10/9/2025: Mostly sunny this morning, a few middle clouds this afternoon, windy, and warmer. A slight chance for a late day shower. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Evening clouds with a slight chance for a rain shower, then partial clearing late. Breezy and milder. Low: between 47 and 53. Winds: S-SW 8-15 MPH, shifting to NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 10/10/2025: Becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and a bit cooler. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, breezy, and a shade cooler. Low: between 38 and 44. Winds: NE-E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday 10/11/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Clouding up, breezy, and mild with a chance for early morning rain showers. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday 10/12/2025: Mostly cloudy with morning rain showers. Maybe a few afternoon sunny breaks, but a chance for more showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Breezy and cooler. High: between 62 and 67. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 50%.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with evening rain showers possible. Partial clearing late. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH, becoming NW 8-15 MPH after midnight. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday 10/13/2025: Sunny, breezy, and cooler. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: WNW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Highs in the 60's with uncertain rain chances early to middle of next week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Thursday, 8 Thursday night through Saturday, 7 Saturday night, 5 Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 64°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 45°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Next Update: Friday, October 10, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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