St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

No Central Minnesota Record Highs (unlike yesterday), But Storm Set-Up From Here South

We won't threaten any record warm temperatures today (83 degrees broke the April 12 record warm high of 82, set in 1931), but the front that passed through central Minnesota (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC US surface maps) with very few showers and thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) will get more active today.

The high humidity that we had for a while yesterday morning (dew points in the upper 50's to even near an uncomfortable for July near 60; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) remains to the south of the front (see yellows and browns on the UCAR hourly dew point chart). That will set up the potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening when the next low pressure system over Idaho (see College of DuPage North American mid-level water vapor loop) moves into the Dakotas.

The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook) with large hail and perhaps even some tornadoes possible near the front. Central Minnesota will be in the slightly cooler air, so the severe potential isn't quiet as great, but some of the storms may produce some hail or some damaging winds. The storms will move quickly, so the heaviest rain potential will be in east central and southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week

Today begins Warm Season Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota. Safety steps before and during severe weather outbreaks are covered.

Storms to be Further South and East Tuesday, Some Shower Chance Wednesday

There will be a parade of storms along the front, but each day's activity will knock the front a bit further to the south each day. The severe weather threat tomorrow afternoon will be from southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin, Detroit, and Chicago, but central Minnesota may only see a few sprinkles. 

A stronger low will move along the front on Wednesday, but central Minnesota will be a bit further into the cooler air. So, I have a 1 in 3 shot at showers (compare Day 3 to Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) in central Minnesota with southeastern Minnesota having the best chance for total rainfall.

The sequence of moving the front southward will slowly bring St. Cloud temperatures back towards the mid-April average highs (middle 50's)with today's high in the upper 60's to near 70 (more than 10 degrees cooler than yesterday) and tomorrow's high in the lower 60's. Wednesday's high will be in the middle to upper 50's.

Potential for Near Freezing Lows Mid-Week, Even Cooler Weekend

There will be cooler lows (dropping into the 30's) Wednesday and Thursday mornings, which is close to the mid-April average low. That also means it's far too early to think about putting delicate plants in the ground (the average date for St. Cloud's last frost is the first week of May).

Another Warm Spell Late in Work Week

We will have another cycle of very warm temperatures, followed by colder temperatures. Thursday will have a return to highs near or over 70. Friday will be another day with the potential for upper 70's and lower 80's highs. The timing of the front ending that warm streak is forecast to be around midday, so the chance for showers and thunderstorms might be better in eastern Minnesota than in central Minnesota, but it's relatively early.

Much Cooler Weekend (Snowflakes Possible?)

Speaking of too early for sensitive plants a paragraph ago, cooler air will move back in over next weekend. The latest forecast trend shows the chance that the upper air low will strengthen over Minnesota on Saturday. If that happens, there could be occasional light snow or flurries over Minnesota, but it is far too early to count on the snow. But, below freezing temperatures would be likely over the weekend into Monday.