St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Warm and Dry Has Produced Wildfires in Minnesota

The extremely warm (high of 85 Friday, high of 76 Saturday; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), windy (gusts over 30 MPH the last two days), and dry conditions (dew points in the 30's, blue on the 5-day St. Cloud observation graph from MesoWest) have produced relative humidity in the 10-30 percent each of the past three afternoons (green line on the the 5-day St. Cloud observation graph from MesoWest).

This has led to some wildfires across Minnesota with the largest one being near Breezy Point (see smoke plume on the EPA fire and smoke map). That area has been one of the driest parts of Minnesota (see US Drought Monitor) with less than 10 inches of precipitation over the past 6 months (blue on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map, setting to yesterday's date, and last 180 days).

The general dry conditions in the Plains (see again US Drought Monitor) has already led to a number of early season wildfires, with the most in Texas right now.

Thunderstorms On Our Doorstep (A Sign of Future Weather)

There has been major rainfall not far away from Minnesota during the past two days. True Gulf of Mexico air has produced summer-like humidity (dew points in the uncomfortable 60's as close as southeastern Nebraska and central Iowa; brown areas on the UCAR hourly dew point map). That moisture lies just to the south of a stalled front (alternating red and blue on the 4 PM Saturday CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) and has produced large overnight thunderstorms (see yellow and red 'blobs' on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), producing pockets of severe weather (some hail and winds Friday night; a couple of tornadoes in Kansas and southern Iowa mixed with the large hail last night) and heavy rain (the Friday night storms produced 1-2 inches of rain in north central and northeastern Iowa; green and yellow when you set the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map to yesterday's date).

Showers and Thunderstorms Likely This PM and Evening...

The strong storm in the Interior Pacific Northwest (counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop) is forecast to Wyoming and Montana by late tomorrow, which will push the sticky air closer to Minnesota and set the stage for showers and thunderstorms across Minnesota today and especially tomorrow.

The overnight showers and thunderstorms will weaken, although there is a chance of a few scattered early morning thunderstorms, which will have trouble getting rain to the ground. We will see a mixture of clouds and sun the rest of today, so highs will be limited to the lower 70's. However, the flow of very moist air will get further to the north across Iowa and Nebraska today. This will set up another round of strong showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska, northern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota late this afternoon and early evening.

Severe Weather Threat

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has ranked the severe weather threat as category 3 of 5 in southwestern and south central Minnesota, with all types of severe weather, including tornadoes possible. The best chance for central Minnesota showers and thunderstorms will come late this afternoon through the evening hours. The threat for tornadoes in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities will be smaller, but there still could be a good chance for straight-line damaging winds and large hail as the storms blend into a line or two (severe weather threat ranked as 2 of 5 by NWS Storm Prediction Center). The storms will move rather quickly. While some areas will be hit by heavy downpours, the chance for flooding is relatively modest (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook).

Aside: Lack of Upper Air Due to Budget Cuts a Forecast Issue

Even though we are more than a year past the original DOGE cuts to the National Weather Service, and some funding has been restored since December (I noted that the NWS in LaCrosse, WI had posted job listings early this month), the reduced personnel at NWS offices in the Plains remains a huge problem. Most of the offices are launching upper-air balloons at 7 PM (see upper air reports, numbers and wind barbs, from Wyoming weather web), but there is a huge hole in the network from Minnesota through the High Plains and Rockies each morning at 7 AM (see yesterday's map from Wyoming weather web). While a couple of stations in the highest threat region will launch special balloons around noon, the assessment of thunderstorm potential in the Plains will mostly depend on last night's readings. And, there are no upper air observations from Great Falls, MT, Denver, CO, and North Platte, NE like there were in 2024. Since only the detailed observations from upper air balloons give meteorologists a good assessment of low-level moisture, how warm the ground has to get to break any stable layers, and how strong the flow of the sticky air over the top of the cooler air to the north will be (a key for Minnesota in this situation), the forecasts are taking a hit.

PM Showers and Thunderstorms Also Tomorrow (Smaller Severe Weather Threat)

Tomorrow, the upper air low will be closer to Minnesota, so the lift at the front will be stronger. That's why the NWS Storm Prediction Center has an area with a category 4 of 5 (red) risk of severe weather. However, the leading edge of the sticky air is likely to be knocked a bit further to the south. That means that southern and perhaps central Minnesota will see a chance for more showers and thunderstorms from midday through the afternoon, the severe weather risk is lower in all but southeastern Minnesota. Some of the showers might be heavy (see lowest risk in Day 2 NWS WPC excessive rainfall outlook), but the potential for more than an inch of rain between today and tomorrow has been reduced to some parts of southern Minnesota (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). So this storm may not be as effective at widespread drought relief as I earlier had hoped.

Since central Minnesota will be deeper into the cooler air, temperatures are more likely to be limited to the 60's, depending on how much sun there will be. We will have winds from the north or northeast, but they shouldn't be quite as strong as the winds today.

Here Comes the Complaints in My Inbox.... 

Those of you waiting for the spring to warm and finally remain warm are going to be disappointed again after this storm goes by. And, if you've taken a chance to put in delicate plants or start your lawn sprinkles, you're going to have a night of worry Tuesday night.

The air behind this system has been consistently forecast to be cool, but the trend has been colder as we have gotten further into the weekend. The latest forecasts have a windy Tuesday with a lot of clouds. Temperatures will fall to the lower half of the 40's by Tuesday morning. Some pessimistic forecasts are keeping even afternoon temperatures in the upper 40's, but I am going with a high near or a bit above 50. The winds are expected to die down on Tuesday night with some partial clearing. If we go completely calm, some areas could see a Wednesday morning temperature close to freezing. 

High temperatures will return to the 60's Wednesday afternoon with similar highs likely Thursday through Saturday. There will be some chances for showers and thunderstorms as more frequent storms get caught up in more west-to-east flow. At this point, the precipitation potential doesn't look high and I don't trust which day might have the bigger chances (Thursday is a possibility).