Thursday, August 28, 2025  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Mostly Dry and Seasonably Warm Weekend, But With More Clouds Than During the Week

We had a near miss for 80 degrees yesterday afternoon (see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) with a high of 79 degrees (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations), actually within a degree of average. However, the persistent Yukon Express flow pattern continued to route weather systems from Alaska and northwestern Canada towards Minnesota (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop). That pushed a cold front from Manitoba and Ontario into Minnesota overnight. There were a few scattered rain showers moving from Manitoba into northern Minnesota for much of yesterday (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). A few afternoon showers also blew up in southern Minnesota and there have been a couple of showers overnight. Where the showers are missing, there are also some patches of dense fog early this morning (see horizontal lines under the temperature on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), so the National Weather Service has patches with a dense fog advisory (see gray areas on the NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map). .However, the main effect of this front will be to drop the dew points back from the noticeable to uncomfortable near 60 readings back into the 50's.

Highs will again climb back to the middle to upper 70's.

Over the weekend, a little bit of moisture from the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest (counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop) will continue to push the area of scattered showers and thunderstorms that ran from the Northern Rockies and Montana into Nebraska yesterday (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) closer to Minnesota. The expected weak storm system will drift into South Dakota over the weekend, but pretty much weaken as it heads into Iowa by Monday. This system will push the dew points back into the noticeable upper 50's to the uncomfortable lower 60's over the weekend. There will be a chance for a few scattered showers, but I don't see better than a 1 in 3 chance for showers and thunderstorms at any time between Friday night and Monday. So, the main effect will be having a mixture of clouds and sun, rather than the mainly sunny skies we've seen a lot of this week. Highs will mainly be in the 70's, but the added moisture will keep the lows in the 50's to near 60.

The northwest-to-southeast flow will strengthen by the first half of next week, bringing a stronger cold front through Minnesota some time on Tuesday or Wednesday (some disagreement between the computer forecasts). We will have an uncertain shot at showers and thunderstorms with this cold front, but we will once again get a lot cooler from Wednesday through the second half of next week.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 8/28/2025: Some early fog possible. Otherwise, mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and seasonably warm, but with lower humidity. A chance for a scattered sprinkle. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: E 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with diminishing wind and seasonably cool. A slight chance for a rain shower. Low: between 53 and 58. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 8/29/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and seasonably warm, but a bit more humid. A slight chance for a scattered afternoon shower. High: between 73 and 78. Winds: E-SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a scattered rain shower. Noticeably to uncomfortably humid. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Saturday 8/30/2025: Mixed clouds and sun and breezy. A slight chance for a scattered shower. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a scattered rain shower. Low: between 57 and 62. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 8/31/2025: Still partly sunny, breezy, and warm with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. A chance for a scattered afternoon shower. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Sunday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance for a scattered rain shower. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 9/1/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and warm with a slight chance for a scattered afternoon shower. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: A major cold front cools temperatures down from Wednesday on with a chance for a few showers either Tuesday or Wednesday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Thursday through Thursday night, 6 Friday and Friday night, 4 Saturday through Sunday, 3 Monday.

Yesterday's High: 79°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 58°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

Next Update: Friday, August 29, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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