Friday, January 30, 2026  3:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Last Day of Much Colder Than Average Temperatures

Coldest Lobe of Arctic Air Coming Through Minnesota....

The final lingering lobe of the arctic air is pushing into Minnesota this morning (see green and yellow colors on the College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) and will move through Minnesota today (use the right arrow to step forward on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map). That air will push southeastward towards the Gulf and Atlantic coasts over the weekend. Notice that the dark blue, coldest air right now, will disappear. All of this means the atmosphere is doing its job. The goal of all weather circulation is to try and get rid of temperature differences. Moving this swath of arctic air, which spent more than a month in north central Canada under clear sky and little sunshine, into the middle latitudes, where there is more sunshine and longer days, helps to warm this air up.

...So Easing of Cold Conditions Will Persist Tomorrow Through Next Week

The plus side for Minnesota is that it takes time to create air that cold, so no air mass currently behind the arctic air is as cold as what is going by today (note only light blue, except right along the Arctic Ocean, into next week on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map when you use the right arrow to step forward) after today's warming of the coldest air.

Even though our steering winds will continue to be from the northwest (see College of DuPage North America water vapor satellite loop), our temperatures will moderate because none of the air in the Yukon or the northern Prairie Provinces is as cold as the air coming through today.

Day-to-Day Moderation...

So, Minnesota has about 36 hours left of the cold we have seen this week. We are beginning the day with sub-zero temperatures (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) and wind chills in the -25 to -10 range (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). Temperatures will warm back to the plus single digits this afternoon. Overnight, our winds will calm and skies will be clear, so we will have one final night (for the next week) with temperatures in the minus teens.

...With Light Snow Chance Sat Nt-Sun

By tomorrow, high temperatures will finally return to the teens. Tomorrow night and Sunday, there will be a weak storm system moving by in the northwest-to-southeast flow. It will pump seasonably cold air over the arctic leftovers, so we will have a shot at between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow from late Saturday night to midday Sunday (set tab to 00 UTC Mon, 6 PM Sun, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). However, the clouds will keep the Saturday night temperatures above zero. As the snow lets up, Sunday's high will climb into the 20's.

We will have slightly colder air work in behind the Sunday system, so low temperatures Monday morning will be near zero with afternoon highs back in the teens to perhaps 20. However, this brief chilly spot won't last; highs will return to the 20's on Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, we are likely to continue alternating between average cold and milder than average temperatures. There may be more frequent weather systems going by, so the chance of light snow or flurries is uncertain but likely more frequent than last week.

Still Significantly Cold and Snowy In Areas Not Used to It, Some Without Indoor Heat

The arctic air pushing to our south today will cause more problems. The cold alone will hit areas still with power outages from last weekend's snow and ice storm, so the new surge of colder than average temperatures will cause problems for people still without heat. At least 85 people have died in the cold air surge to our south.

While the predicted major storm for the East Coast is now forecast to stay further out to sea, there is the potential for a major snowfall in the Carolinas, inland tomorrow (see Day 2 snowfall composite from NWS WPC), then along the Carolina and southeast Virginia coast Saturday night into Sunday (set tab to 00 UTC Mon, 6 PM Sun, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance).

Colder Than Average for a Second Month

The persistent cold through the second half of January has pushed the January 2026 St. Cloud average temperature to more than a degree colder than average through Wednesday's statistics. And, that will go down during the last few days of the month. There have been 14 days with a low colder than zero, running the cold season total to 28 days. We have had 3 sub-zero highs (average: 4.3 days) and 4 lows colder than -20 (3 in January; average for the cold season is 5.4 days). We had the first low of -10 or colder on January 23 since January 30, 2019. But, we haven't broken any record cold lows during the winter months since February 28, 2014.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 1/30/2026: Mostly sunny through the morning, some clouds with a slight chance for a flurry during the afternoon. One more cold day. High: between +3 and +8. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -25 and -10 during the morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Clearing, light winds, and one last night of minus teens temperatures. Low: between -15 and -8. Winds: NW 5 MPH evening, calm late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday 1/31/2026: Partly sunny and a shade milder. High: between +10 and +15. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Spotty wind chill: between -20 and -5 morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Saturday Night: Clouding up with a chance for light snow or flurries late at night. Low: between 5 and 10 evening, rising into the teens during the early morning hours. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Sunday 2/1/2026: Lingering light snow through mid-morning, tapering to flurries by midday. Between a dusting and 2 inches of snow could accumulation between late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Remaining cloudy during the afternoon, but finally back to seasonable temperatures. High: between 22 and 28. Winds: S 8-15 MPH during the morning, becoming NW 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40% during the morning, 20% during the afternoon.

Sunday Night: Flurries ending during the evening, then partial clearing, lighter winds, and cold. Low: between 0 and +5. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 2/2/2026: Sunshine through high clouds, light winds, and a shade colder. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: NW 5 MPH during the morning, SE 5 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Monday Night: Cloudy with a slight chance of flurries and not as cold.  Low: between 7 and 12. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday 2/3/2026: Mixed clouds and sun with perhaps a flurry. Back to seasonably cold temperatures. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Extended: Average to milder than average temperatures through much of next week?? More frequent chances for mainly light precipitation??  

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Friday, 8 Friday night and Saturday, 5 Saturday night and Sunday, 4 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 7°F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM Friday): -4°F

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, February 2, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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