Thursday, December 18, 2025  2:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Lots of Wind and Some Precipitation Issues With Falling Temperatures Today

Everything from Blizzard to High Wind Warnings

The National Weather Service has nearly a rainbow of advisories and warnings in different parts of Minnesota as a major storm works from western North Dakota (see College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop) across Minnesota today (see time through 00 UTC Friday, 6 PM CST Thursday, on the NWS WPC short-range forecast). Like a typical storm lacking moisture, the best chance for snow will be along and to the north of the track of the storm with a potential 2-5 inches of snow along the Minnesota-Canadian border (set tab to 00 UTC or 12 UTC Friday, 6 PM CST Thursday or 6 AM CST Friday on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). There will be a chance for a light accumulation of snow along the southern flank of storm in central Minnesota, so we could see an accumulation between a dusting and 2 inches with the best chances this afternoon.

Strong Winds Will Cause Visibility Problems in Areas of Snow Today

The large pressure difference between the low and the high pressure behind it in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) will continue as the storm moves across Minnesota (see large number of isobars, black lines, denoting pressure difference, across Minnesota and North Dakota on the NWS WPC short-range forecast). That will produce wind gusts over 50 MPH. Where there is new snowfall, that will cause near zero visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. That's why North Dakota, the Red River Valley, and northwestern Minnesota to Roseau have a blizzard warning through the day today, despite an expected new snowfall of between 1 and 4 inches. The accumulations of between 2 and 4 inches are expected along the shore of Lake of the Woods, so Baudette and the Red Lakes have a winter storm warning (pink).

Temperatures Crash from 30's Early AM to Teens Midday to Single Digits PM

The other areas expecting some precipitation are in the rest of northern and central Minnesota, where a winter weather advisory (purple) is in effect from midday through tonight. There will be some scattered snow showers on the northwest fringe of this storm as it goes by with any accumulation limited to between a dusting and an inch, possibly 2 inches in a few spots. However, these areas will also have wind gusts of 40-50 MPH, producing some areas of low visibility in blowing snow. The other aspect of this storm will be rapidly falling temperatures from the upper 30's and even some lower 40's during the early morning hours (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) back to the teens seen in western and central North Dakota. There were a few evening rain showers (set number of frames to at least 96 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Between those showers and puddles leftover from melting snow, there will be a good chance for rapid icing of the roads as temperatures quickly crash through the teens this morning, reaching the plus single digits by afternoon. Given the strong winds, a vehicle could easily be shoved into an icy area this afternoon. The rapid pace of the change could allow more icy spots on major roads, as well as the usual problem of sidewalks, driveways, and parking areas icing today.

Southern and southwestern Minnesota, where there is little precipitation expected, have a wind advisory (gusts of 40-50 MPH) through the Minnesota River Valley and generally south of I-94 (light brown) with a high wind warning (gold; gusts of 50-60 MPH) in western and southwestern Minnesota. These areas will also see the falling temperatures, so there will be some icing of any puddles leftover from melting.

Useful links for today:

• NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map (temperatures and winds)
• NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up (temperatures, wind gusts, wind chills)
• Road Conditions
  • Minnesota
  • North Dakota (no travel advised already in parts of northern ND, including I-29)
  • Wisconsin

Rapid Temperature Changes Tomorrow Through Early Next Week

After today, expect fewer chances for significant precipitation (see Days 2-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with a temperature roller coaster as weather systems pull either colder or milder air into Minnesota. My latest estimate is for highs:

• Friday: teens
• Saturday: 20's AM, teens PM
• Sunday: plus single digits
• Monday and Tuesday: 30's

The milder streak early next week could continue into Wednesday. After that, it is difficult to forecast how warm we will be, since the timing of any major storms is uncertain. Still, I only see small chances for precipitation from tomorrow through early next week (1 in 5 shot Friday and Sunday nights?).

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 12/18/2025: Mostly cloudy, blustery, and turning much colder. A chance for occasional flurries or light snow. Between a dusting and 2 inches of new snow are possible by evening. Icy spots on untreated roads. Sunrise temperatures in the middle 30's, but temperatures falling into the teens by midday and into the plus single digits by mid-afternoon. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH during the morning, NW 20-35 MPH with gusts over 50 MPH midday and afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -15 afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Thursday Night: Clearing, diminishing wind late at night, and colder, but not as extreme as during the past weekend. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, NW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Evening wind chill: between -27 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 12/19/2025: Some sunshine through high clouds during the morning, then thickening clouds during the afternoon. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH during the morning, SE 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Morning wind chill: between -20 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Cloudy with a chance for evening light snow or flurries. Perhaps some sleet mixed in. Milder. Temperatures holding in the teens during the evening, then rising into the 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH, becoming NW 8-15 MPH towards morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Saturday 12/20/2025: Some early clouds, then becoming sunny, breezy, and seasonably cold. High: between 22 and 27 during the morning, falling into the teens during the afternoon. Winds: WNW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Saturday Night: Partly clear and colder. Low: between -5 and 0. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -20 and -5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 12/21/2025: Sunny during the morning, sunshine mixed with high clouds during the afternoon. Colder. High: between 5 and 10. Winds: S 5 MPH during the morning, SE 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -15 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance for light snow or flurries late. Milder. Temperatures rising through the teens. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -10 and +10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Monday 12/22/2025: Perhaps some light snow or mixed precipitation early, then partly sunny and milder. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Continued mild Tuesday and Wednesday???? Uncertain temperatures beyond???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Thursday, 8 Thursday night, 7 Friday, 4 Friday night, 5 Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday.

Yesterday's High: 40°F (set at midnight Wednesday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 38°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 37°F; Top Wind Gust: 36 MPH at 6:17 PM Wednesday
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): TBA

Next Update: Friday, December 19, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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