Tuesday, June 10, 2025  2:35 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Improvement Today, But Frequent Shower and Smoke Chances in Forecast

Wet Weather Pattern Setting Up Near or Over Minnesota, Especially Thursday into Early Next Week

As the slow-moving Canadian low finally edged to the east of Minnesota yesterday afternoon (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), clearing has finally moved into western Minnesota (see College of DuPage shortwave infrared satellite loop). However, we will be moving into a pattern that will produce frequent chances for rain in parts of Minnesota from late this week into the first part of next week. Those precipitation chances will be produced by the contrast between seasonably warm and dry air moving through western Canada in the west-to-east flow (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) and the very warm and humid air over Texas and Oklahoma (see 4 PM Monday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). These true tropical dew points (see red areas on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) will be brought northward as southwest-to-northwest flow sets up in the southwestern and south central US. The function of most storm systems is to try and eliminate areas where warm and cool air are brought together (which will become the front, forecast to set up somewhere in Nebraska, Iowa, or possibly southern Minnesota; see NWS WPC short-term forecast charts) so there will be potential rainfall near and along the cold side of the front. Any upper-level disturbance that approaches the area of the stalled front will pull the hot and sticky air over the cooler air, producing an enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Small Chance for Showers Tonight, Better Chance Sometime Thursday into Friday (??)

The main forecast problem is trying to track any one of these lows. None of the computer forecasts have any particularly strong system moving along the front, so the storm area could be limited. At this point, the forecast favors a small chance for showers and thunderstorms in Minnesota this evening and a better chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. It appears that most of Minnesota would miss the potential for storms tomorrow (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The potential shower and thunderstorm zone on Thursday is most consistently forecast in southern Minnesota with some storms possibly getting into central Minnesota. There is also a chance that the storms could set up further to the south, staying mostly in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa and perhaps getting pushed entirely into Iowa (see Day 3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The forecast of this precipitation has already moved quite a bit southward from a couple of days ago, when northern Minnesota and adjacent Manitoba and Ontario were favored. So, more changes could take place.

For now, I have the best chance for rain on Thursday night with better than a 50-50 shot at storms. We could see rain showers develop Thursday afternoon (although the rain might stay to our south) and we could see occasional showers on Friday, although these showers may tend to be to our south, especially as the day goes on.

June Warmth Returns Today Through Thursday, Perhaps Cooler Friday and Saturday

This forecast also shows that the Canadian air will win out in northern and central Minnesota, so our winds will become northeast. That could come sometime late Thursday or Thursday evening and persist Friday and Friday night. So, cooler weather will be on tap on Friday than we will see today and tomorrow, when highs will range from the middle 70's to the lower 80's. However, given the uncertain position of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, I still have highs in the 70's then. The computer forecasts keep us cloudy all day Friday while we are in the cool air, but given the high position of the sun in the sky and long daylight period, it is difficult to keep us cloudy all day without persistent rain or drizzle in the air. So, I again have highs in the lower 70's on Friday and Saturday.

Smoke Issues This Morning, Then Probably Tomorrow into Thursday, Possibly Over Weekend

Anytime our air is coming from Canada, we will have to be concerned about smoke from the massive outbreak of Canadian wildfires getting into Minnesota . There is widespread smoke behind the departing low from the Plains into Saskatchewan and Alberta (see haziness during daytime hours of the GeoColor satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider). However, you should take into account that meteorologists, including myself, have proven that we have trouble forecasting the progress of these smoke plumes and how much of the smoke will be at the ground.

Right now, there are some orange Air Quality Indices (unhealthy for sensitive people) in northern and central Minnesota. Some of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency sensors are showing this pollution. So, we will have some high pollution levels for a while this morning. Our winds will turn around to the southwest today, so lower pollution levels will be brought in. However, there could be more problems tomorrow, since our winds will switch back to the northwest today. That will bring air from the higher pollution areas of southern Saskatchewan and central Alberta, where the air quality indices are particularly bad this morning (some red and even purple on the EPA fire and smoke map). So, there will be potential problems tomorrow. The winds will turn back to the southeast on Thursday as the showers get closer to central Minnesota. However, the winds will shift back to the northeast after the front sets up, so our air will be coming from Manitoba by Friday. There may be issues with air quality again. But, I wouldn't hazard a specific pollution forecast that far away at this point.

Warmer, Maybe Showery, Sunday and Monday??

Eventually, the warmer air to our south is forecast to return to Minnesota Sunday and Monday. However, there will be the potential for more showers and thunderstorms early next week, but the computer forecasts cannot not even agree within 12 hours when that threat will be.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 6/10/2025: Becoming sunny through some smoke with both early morning and middle to late afternoon clouds, lighter winds, and much warmer. Reduced air quality during the morning. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with perhaps an evening shower, then partial clearing, but not quite as cool. Low: between 53 and 58. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH early evening, NW 5-15 MPH from near midnight on. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday 6/11/2025: Hazy sunshine through smoke, light winds, and continued seasonably warm. Elevated fire danger in northern and western Minnesota. High: between 75 and 80. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday Night: Partly to mostly clear, light winds, and a bit cooler. Some fog possible by morning. Smoke problems? Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NE-E 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 6/12/2025: Hazy sunshine into midday with questionable air quality. A chance of afternoon showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm. High: between 72 and 77. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH, shifting to NE late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Thursday Night: Cloudy with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Friday 6/13/2025: Mostly cloudy with perhaps some afternoon sun, breezy, and cooler. Perhaps an isolated shower. Maybe some smoke. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and relatively cool. Perhaps a sprinkle. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 6/14/2025: Cloudy with some sunny periods and not quite as cool. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Warmer Sunday and Monday??? Uncertain chances for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday??? Monday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 6 Tuesday through Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night through Thursday night, 3 Friday through Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 68°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 58°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): Trace; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, June 11, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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