St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

There were a couple of scattered shower and thunderstorm outbreaks during the weekend. On Friday, there was a batch of late morning showers and thunderstorms that moved through Stearns County, producing between one inch and one and a half inch wide hail stones right down 2nd St. South and Division St. During the early morning hours of Sunday, a couple of storms pushed through the St. Cloud area, but the bulk of the rain, along with a couple of large hail reports, hit south central Minnesota. The net result is that a few parts of Minnesota got some badly needed rain (more than half an inch, light green, on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota rainfall map, when you set the date to yesterday and the time period to last 3 days). To relieve the prolonged rain shortage (river and stream flow in the lowest 10 percent, red shading, when you click on overlays and weekly stream flow report on the Minnesota DNR Cooperative Stream Gauging map).

Overnight Band of Showers and Thunderstorms Further South, But Still Quite Humid Here

The battle zone between cooler and drier Canadian air caught up in the Hudson Bay low pressure system (counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) and much hotter air (see 100-plus degree highs from western Kansas to the Arizona and California deserts on yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) being produced by the high pressure area (clockwise circulation) over the Four Corners area of the Southern Rockies will continue to be the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Those storms set up from eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming across Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri overnight (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). However, the flow of Canadian air hasn't been strong enough to root out the uncomfortable dew points in the upper half of the 60's in southern Minnesota (see UCAR hourly dew point chart), let alone the Florida-like 70's in Iowa (red). Dew points edged to near or above 70 yesterday afternoon in west central, southwest, and south central Minnesota yesterday afternoon (set time to 20Z-22Z, 3-5 PM, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Cooler and Drier By Mid-Week...

Central Minnesota has not been in the hottest temperatures so far during August (see highs mostly in the 80's on the NWS St. Cloud August 2026 high-low temperature graph). During this work week, the Canadian flow will slowly shove the Rockies high and the worst of the heat southward (see southward motion of orange, red, and purple on the NWS Heat Risk forecast as the week goes on), eventually allowing drier and a bit cooler air into Minnesota by Thursday and Friday.

...Thunderstorm Chances Tonight and Especially Tomorrow Night

Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms will come over the next two days as the core of the heat remains close enough to Minnesota to trigger shower and thunderstorm outbreaks just to the north of the really hot air. That will mainly come both tonight into early tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Thunderstorms are likely to develop each evening in the eastern Dakotas and push eastward. The computer forecasts cannot agree on what side of the front central Minnesota will be on both early tomorrow and early Wednesday, so there are some differences. However, I am leaning on a better chance for storms tomorrow night (50-50) than tonight (30% chance). There will be a severe weather risk tonight, mainly from South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota, and a small chance for severe weather in tomorrow night's storms.

Significant rainfall is favored in the corridor from eastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota in both rounds of storms (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but I think we will have a better chance of seeing some rainfall tomorrow night.

Maybe Isolated Wed PM Storm, Then Drier and Cooler

After the Tuesday night system pushes out, there will be stronger flow from Canada, which should be enough to push the main rainfall threat to our south for the rest of Wednesday and Thursday. We will still be fairly humid on Wednesday, so there might be an isolated afternoon shower, but the rain potential will be small (see Day 3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Drier air will move in Wednesday night, so dew points will fall back into the comfortable 50's. Instead of highs in the low to middle 80's like we will have through Wednesday, highs will be in the upper 70's to near 80 Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the 50's.

Will Smoke Be an Issue?

The main question about the drier weather later this week is how much of the smoke from fires from British Columbia to Oregon and Idaho will move in and whether it will be near the ground. Some smoke near the ground is now reported in a portion of Montana and Wyoming, pushing the Air Quality index to orange and even red. Our flow on Wednesday afternoon is expected to come from this area with sinking air likely, so there will be the potential for issues at the ground. And, any time we see sun, it could be dimmed by the wildfire smoke at middle levels (see gray patches on the EPA fire and smoke map).

Seasonably Warm and Relatively Dry, Except Friday Night(??)

The long-range forecasts mainly keep Minnesota in the cooler and drier Canadian air through at least the weekend. There is a possibility that Minnesota catches a part of the showers and thunderstorms that will be to our south and west with the best chance on Friday night into early Saturday. However, I'd put that chance at iffy (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).