St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Storms Concentrated to Our South Yesterday and Last Night....

Central Minnesota had fewer clouds and showers, after the morning batch went through yesterday (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), as southern Minnesota got the bulk of the afternoon and overnight storms.

...But Weather Pattern Favors Storm Chances Through Early Next Week

However, we are forecast to remain close to the boundary between warm and uncomfortably humid air in Minnesota and southern Canada and the really steamy air from Iowa and Nebraska southward (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). A series of storms will move from the northeastern Pacific near the US-Canadian border and into Manitoba (see counterclockwise circulation centers on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms to Minnesota.

More Sunshine Today, With Next Storm Threat More Likely Tonight

Changes in the forecast from earlier this week indicate a good chance for a drier day today. We are starting the day with relatively few clouds (see College of DuPage north central US shortwave infrared satellite loop and open sky circles on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). However, the next storm system will bring at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon with a better chance this evening. Then, it appears that we will have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into early tomorrow.

Saturday Might Have Both Early and Late Storms

Unfortunately, the trend in the forecast also gives at least parts of Minnesota a good chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into early Saturday and again Saturday afternoon into the evening. I don't have a lot of confidence in the Friday and Saturday forecasts (less on Saturday than on Friday). And, there are some hints about a better chance for storms in southern Minnesota than in central Minnesota Saturday (note that the prime area of rainfall favors southern Minnesota and Wisconsin on the Day 3 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but I really don't trust the computer enough to feel confident of a dry Fourth of July in central Minnesota. 

Tonight's Storms Could Produce Damaging Winds

The storm chances will again come with threats of severe weather. The NWS Storm Prediction Center ranks the severe weather threat in the Dakotas into west central and southwestern Minnesota as a category 3 (of 5) threat with large hail and straight-line damaging winds the main issue from this afternoon into the evening. The rest of the southern two-thirds of Minnesota have a category 2 threat, mainly for straight-line wind damage in overnight storms. 

Uncertain Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow Afternoon and Saturday

Tomorrow, the NWS Storm Prediction Center has a category 2 (of 5) threat for the chance of severe weather, mainly during the afternoon or evening hours. However, the forecasters note a lot of uncertainty in both the location (pushed more into southern Minnesota) and the severity of the threat. Again, the problem is not being sure of how long the clouds from the Thursday night storms linger on Friday morning and where they will be. There's even some chance of the clouds lingering into the afternoon. 

The threat for severe weather on Saturday is even more uncertain with the possibility of both overnight and early morning storms and again late afternoon storms. There probably will be a lot of lingering clouds during the middle of Saturday, so I would guess the risk would be rated category 1 or 2.

Outdoor Celebrations May Have Friday Night and Saturday Issues

So, my best guess right now is that any Friday outdoor activity issues may come Friday night but I am completely uncertain about any celebrations on the 4th of July. Given that the threat will be thunderstorms, a plan for indoor shelter will be needed.

The persistent rain chances mean that some areas getting daily rainfall will have a threat for flooding (despite the concern for drought conditions through the spring and summer thus far). Note the category 2 threat (yellow) for excessive rainfall on Days 2-3 with already a flood watch in effect in parts of southeastern Minnesota. The most unfortunate part of the forecast is that Sunday appears to have the best chance for a dry day as slightly less humid air is expected to build behind the Saturday storm. 

Warmest and More Humid Today, Likely to be Cloudier Saturday

If we have a shot at a 90-degree high today through the weekend, it would come today. I will keep the highs in the upper half of the 80's to near 90 because the computer forecasts have been missing temperature forecasts on the hot side for much of this week. Also, the sunshine will be hazy since we will continue to be in the smoke plume from the Utah and Colorado fires (see EPA fire and smoke map). The smoke at the ground continues to be limited, so moderate air quality is expected today. The dew points will remain in the uncomfortable 60's, perhaps brushing a Florida-like 70.

Tomorrow, it appears that the late night storms will move out of central Minnesota, so we still will have a chance for some sunshine and highs in the 80's.

On Saturday, I am keeping a lot of clouds in the forecast, so highs may struggle to reach 80. The humidity will be uncomfortable tonight through Saturday, so lows will be in the 60's. The drier air expected for Sunday will give us a sunnier day with high temperatures near 80 and a shot at lows in the upper 50's early Sunday and Monday mornings.

Still Iffy Chances for Storms Next Week

The long-range forecast keeps Minnesota close to the boundary between really hot and humid air and warm and slightly drier air. The shower and thunderstorm threat remains uncertain early next week after the potentially drier Sunday. The NWS WPC Days 4-7 quantitative precipitation forecasts have smaller amounts spread almost randomly in the northern Plains, but I am not ready to forecast lower potential rainfall at this point.