Wednesday, October 1, 2025  5:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Hot-ober Now Forecast Through Saturday

Next forecast: Friday, October 3 (no forecast Thursday due to Yom Kippur, Jewish Day of Atonement)

"Coolest" Day of the Week Yesterday?

The middle clouds caused less sunshine to break through yesterday (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), so high temperatures merely got to the lower 80's in St. Cloud (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) and much of the southern half of Minnesota (set time to 2-5 PM, 19-22Z, on the NWS WPC Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Dew points remained near 60 all day and overnight (see UCAR hourly dew point map), so yesterday morning's low was only 61, the 11th September low of 60 or milder, tying the 1897 record; more coming in my September 2025 St. Cloud weather summary later today). And, we are working on another low in the 60's this morning.

August Heat to Linger Through Midday Sunday with Potential Record Warm Highs Friday and Saturday, Warm Lows Anytime

If anything, the warm to hot weather looks even more persistent this morning than it was forecast to be yesterday. The low pressure system off the Pacific Coast (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) is now forecast to reach the Dakotas by Friday, but won't drag its cold front through Minnesota until midday Sunday. Once the low is close enough to us, the southwest winds will pick up to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts on Friday, Saturday, and into Sunday morning. As long of the patch of middle clouds moves to our east by Friday midday, we are likely to see near record highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's Friday and Saturday. While 2023 posted 90-degree record warm highs on October 1 and 2, there will be a good chance for temperatures to approach or break the October 3 and 4 record warm highs of 88 degrees on Friday and Saturday. As the winds increase, low temperatures in the 60's, which have a shot at the middle 60's record warm lows, will likely climb to the upper 60's or 70's on Friday and Saturday nights, possibly breaking the October 4 record warm low. Saturday night will also have a low in the upper 60's to 70's, but the cold front passing midday on Sunday will knock temperatures well below record levels during the late afternoon and evening.

Decent Rain Chance Not Until Sunday (and Maybe Not Then)

We will still need the rain, but I have no better than a 1 in 3 chance for showers tonight into tomorrow and 1 in 5 today and Thursday night through Saturday. It appears that the bulk of the showers and thunderstorms will remain on the cool side of the front, so we won't have a better chance for rain until midday Sunday when the front comes through. However, the track of the upper air low is expected in Manitoba and Ontario, so the bulk of the rain showers may not extend past northern Minnesota (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast; Days 6-7 forecast of more central Minnesota rain questionable).

Temperature Whiplash Back to October Sunday PM On

It also appears that we will have a good chance of temperature whiplash on the other side of the front. Temperatures are likely to be in the 70's through midday Sunday. But, after the cold front comes through during the middle of Sunday, readings are likely to fall back into the upper 50's by dark. From Monday through Wednesday, highs will be no better than the 60's (Tuesday might have a high in the 50's) and lows will be in the 40's. Tuesday night-Wednesday morning may have a shot at a clear, calm night, which could bring a good chance of the first central Minnesota frost if that holds up.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 10/1/2025: A cloudy start, then becoming partly sunny, windy, and warmer, with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. A slight chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85 (record warm high: 91 in 2023). Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear and breezy with August-like temperatures, and noticeable humidity. A chance for a late night shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 60 and 65. (record warm low: 64 in 1898) Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday 10/2/2025: A chance for an early shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, partly sunny, breezy, and even warmer, with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity. High: between 83 and 88 (record warm high: 90 in 1953,1992,2023). Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear and very warm with noticeable humidity again. A slight chance for a late night shower. Low: between 58 and 63. (record warm low: 64 in 2023) Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 10/3/2025: Partly sunny and breezy with near record warmth and uncomfortable humidity. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. High: between 86 and 92 (record warm high: 88 in 1922). Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, very warm and humid again. A slight chance for a late night shower. Low: between 63 and 70. (record warm low: 64 in 1922) Winds: S 8-15 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday 10/4/2025: Partly sunny and blustery with near record warmth and uncomfortable humidity. A slight chance for a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 86 and 92 (record warm high: 88 in 1922). Winds: SW 20-30 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, blustery, very warm, and humid again. A chance for a late night shower. Low: between 66 and 72. (record warm low: 58 in 1955 and 2011) Winds: SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday 10/5/2025: Lots of clouds and turning much cooler and less humid during the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the midday and afternoon. High: between 72 and 77 by midday, falling into the 50's by late in the day. Winds: SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts through midday, becoming NW 10-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Much cooler and drier Monday through Wednesday (highs in the 60's, maybe 50's on Tuesday)?? Frost chances for Wednesday morning if we are clear and calm??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday through Saturday, 7 Saturday night, 4 Sunday through Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 81°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Wednesday): 65°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 5 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Friday, October 3, 2025 6 AM (no forecast Thursday due to Yom Kippur, Jewish Day of Atonement)

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Earth Sciences Department home page.