St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Recent Cool Spell Now in 9th Day

The summer solstice, the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, happens on Sunday. On a clear morning, it's been light by 5 AM (sunrise around 5:20) for more than a week with darkness not until after 9:30 PM. However, highs have been in the 70's (or 60's on Wednesday) and lows have been either in the 50's or 40's (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) every day but Monday during this week. That would be typical of the second half of May or mid-September. We've only had this pattern with a stalled low in central Canada (counterclockwise rotation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) pushing weather systems from northwest to southeast (see since June 11.

But This Lingered the Entire Summer in 1992

However, Minnesota and much of the US had an entire summer like this in 1992 (coolest summer in St. Cloud records). There were only 3 days with a high of at least 90 degrees and only 36 days with a high of at least 80 degrees (the average is 63; find this by going to the NWS Twin Cities NOAA data, select St. Cloud area, monthly summarized data, set the intial year range to 'por,' period of record, select maximum temperature for the variable and number of days). In June, July, and August, St. Cloud averages 47 days with a high of 80 or less; we had 73 of those days in 1992. The reason for the cool summer was the 1991 eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano in the Phillippines. Besides the huge effects locally, the volcano spewed massive amounts of dust into the stratosphere. Because the stratosphere doesn't mix that often with the lower atmosphere, the dust remained suspended in the ozone layer. That dust cut down on the amount of sunshine getting to the ground, so we ended up cool (see climatology expert Mark Seeley's look back). As noted in the article, July 1992 was also St. Cloud's coolest July on record.

Even though it may seem like the cool temperatures have hung on for longer than a week, St. Cloud's average June temperature so far is more than 4 degrees above average.

Return to Closer to Average Temperatures Over the Weekend

Our recent cooler than average temperatures will have a chance to ease as soon as the large central Canada low starts moving again. The flow pattern is expected to turn to a more west-to-east direction over the weekend. 

For the next week or so, I don't see any highs in the 60's to near 70 as temperatures should return to the 70's. Still, don't expect highs in the 80's or warmer for a while.

Rain Chance Today (Small Chance of Hail-Producing Storms)

This pattern will continue to bring storm systems through Minnesota. However, the rainfall will be showery. While some areas just to the southwest and east of St. Cloud picked up more than 2 inches of rain (see yellow areas on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map, set date to yesterday and precipitation to last 7 days), our rainfall continued to be modest, as I noted in more detail yesterday.

And, the potential rainfall over the next week will likely concentrate today, with the system producing the Dakota showers (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) moving eastward. There is a small chance that an isolated storm could produce large hail or damaging winds with the biggest threat this afternoon. So, make sure you have an eye on nearby indoor shelter for any outdoor Juneteenth celebration today in case of a stronger thunderstorm. The rainfall amounts today won't be that large, except in a few local areas (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Drier Weekend Except Perhaps Isolated Sprinkle

After that, we may have quite a few puffy clouds each afternoon, like we did yesterday, but the chance of any rain at the ground will be small. The major storm expected on Sunday is still forecast to pass to the south of most of Minnesota (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). There still may be a chance that some of the showers end up a bit further to the north (recent computer trends), but it would take a large change to push the significant rainfall into central or northern Minnesota.

Next Chance for Needed Rain Tuesday?

Next week, we will have the parade of west-to-east moving storm systems. Right now, the computer forecasts are agreeing on potential significant rainfall for Tuesday, but I would still grade that forecast as being iffy.