Thursday, December 11, 2025  5:30 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Deep Snow Cover to Add to Major Weekend Cold Issues

Snow Pack Deep Enough to Cause Blowing and Drifting Issues

The Tuesday afternoon and overnight snowfall (see NWS Snowfall Reports as of yesterday morning), plus another inch or two during the morning and midday hours (1.4 inches at SCSU, running the storm total to 7.0 inches, have pushed the depth of the central and southern Minnesota snow pack over 10 inches (11-12 inches in St. Cloud). That deep snow has a lot of consequences for our future weather. First, that much snow is deep enough to blow across ditches and roads during any persistent wind. The upper portion of the snow pack is a fluffier snow, so it will easily blow and drift over roads in open areas until the next batch of strong winds leaves a crust. And, that doesn't account for any additional snow.

There will be wind after the cold front, marking the surge of truly arctic air that has been banked up in much of northern Alaska and Canada (even a few -50's yesterday afternoon in the Yukon on 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), due to pass tomorrow morning. So, there will be blowing and drifting snow in open areas reducing visibility and possibly adding a layer of ice on roads, especially since temperatures will fall from the teens early tomorrow morning to the single digits by midday and to near zero tomorrow afternoon. At those temperatures, sand and salt doesn't always increase traction.

Falling Snow Likely in SW Minnesota Tonight into Tomorrow, Blowing Snow More Wide Spread

On top of that, there will be a weak storm, now in far northwestern Canada (hard to see even on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), that pumps some milder air over the cold air we have now. That will produce a chance of light snow, accumulating to between 1 and 2 inches, over the open areas of southwestern and south central Minnesota tonight (set time to the 12 UTC Friday tab, 6 AM CST Friday, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). That will provide more fuel for the blowing snow in those areas.

Snow Keeps the Weekend Arctic Air Colder

A deep snow cover also acts like a giant mirror, reflecting 75-95 percent of the sunshine back to space on a sunny day. St. Cloud State University meteorology professor Rod Kubesh has estimated that high temperatures average about 11 degrees colder in an area with deep snow versus an area with bare ground with the same air mass.

This reflection also means that any cold air mass moving into the US from far northern Alaska, Canada, or Siberia will be less likely to ease its cold. Usually when cold air moves from the near sunless area at high latitudes this time of year into the middle latitudes, the long daylight hours mean that the cold air will warm to some degree as it gets pulled to the south. It would also become more mild as it moves over the ground which has been milder. However, the snow cover limits how mild the surface air can be. Now, today will have highs in the teens, which is still 40-60 degrees warmer than those Yukon, Nunavut, and Northwest Territories temperatures, but this means more of the really cold temperatures will get to Minnesota.

Coldest Temperatures Since Last January to Cause Issues

So, I expect the arctic outbreak, beginning tomorrow morning, and continuing until Sunday night, to produce temperatures rivaling the cold we saw during January 18-21, the coldest period of last winter (for now, I'm predicting a longer cold outbreak than we had on February 17-18). Our temperatures will likely fall below zero late Friday afternoon, remain below zero all day on Saturday, and may not climb above zero on Sunday until the evening (the January outbreak had 2 complete calendar days with temperatures below zero). Saturday night looks to be a clear, calm night, so we will potentially have low temperatures in the -20's on Sunday morning, although I'm not ready to go for -27 yet. These colder temperatures will be enough to possibly causing car starting problems for vehicles with a weaker battery, so today and tomorrow would be good days to get that checked.

Wind Chills to Provide Serious Consequences If You're Not Bundled Up or Exposed for a Long Period

As the temperatures fall tomorrow and the high pressure area approaches Saturday, there will be enough of a pressure difference ahead of the arctic high to produce strong winds. That will not only cause issues with blowing snow, but also create the first serious wind chills of the current cold season. We will see wind chills in the minus teens and possibly the -20's by the second half of tomorrow. The winds will keep blowing tomorrow night, so wind chills are likely to fall into the -20's with some -30's. The winds will ease to 8-15 MPH on Saturday, but the below zero temperatures will produce wind chills in the -30's and -20's at least through midday. So, I'll remind you that wind chills of -25 or colder can cause frostbite to any exposed skin in 30 minutes or less. Wind chills of -35 or colder can produce frostbite in 10 minutes or less. I am predicting the winds to calm down by midnight on Saturday night, but we might even see some -40 wind chills before the winds calm down.

Between the blowing snow, the wind chill, and the cold temperature threats, you should have that cold weather supply kit in your vehicle.

More Serious Pressure Change Issues

As well as the cold weather threats, the big pressure change to the strong arctic high as it swoops from northwestern Canada into Minnesota from tomorrow until Sunday morning also means that those of us prone to joint or sinus pain from changing weather will have those problems from Friday at least through Sunday.

Milder Trend Early Next Week But Daytime Warmth May Be Limited by Snow Pack

We've been draining air from northern Canada (see northwest-to-southeast movement of weather systems on the College of DuPage mid-level water vapor loop) much of the time since the Thanksgiving week snows. That and the growing snow pack has kept the temperatures below freezing since then (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). However, the northwest flow is expected to change to a more west-to-east flow pattern by early next week. That would raise the possibility of some thawing over Minnesota during the early part of next week. The strong flow of air after being warmed by its trip down the eastern slopes of the Rockies should arrive in Minnesota beginning Sunday night. However, warm air isn't as dense as cold air, so it has a hard time pushing the leftover cold air out of the way. The reflection effect of the snow pack will make it harder and the tendency for low clouds to form when warm air passes over cold air could keep the sunshine out even more. If we do get above freezing, any melting of the snow will also produce heat loss since some of the air's warmth has to be used for melting the snow. So, I do see milder weather beginning on Sunday night as temperatures climb back above zero. However, I am more unsure about the temperature climbing above freezing. We might end up with a miserably milder than average period (both highs and lows in the 20's).

The next colder shot is due about next Thursday. Any precipitation threat with this transition is unclear at this time.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Thursday 12/11/2025: Mostly cloudy, light winds, and continued cold. Some occasional flurries. A slight chance of some late day more persistent snow showers. High: between 13 and 18. Winds: light during the morning, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for both early evening and late night flurries or snow showers. Low: between 5 and 10 early, rising into the teens towards morning. Winds: light SE, becoming NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 12/12/2025: Any lingering snow tapers off during the early morning with a chance for between a dusting and 2 inches. Then, partial clearing, windy, and much colder. Low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. Early morning temperatures in the teens, falling into the plus single digits during the middle of the day, then dropping to near zero by sunset. Winds: NW and increasing to 10-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH by midday and continuing during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly clear, still breezy, and much colder with serious wind chills. Low: between -13 and -8. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -35 and -20. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/13/2025: Ineffective sunshine, a painful breeze, and likely the coldest day of the season thus far. High: between -8 and 0. (record cold high: -3 in 1985). Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -35 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly clear, light winds, and likely the coldest night of the season so far. Serious wind chills during the evening. Low: between -25 and -15. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light late at night. Wind chill: between -40 and -25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday 12/14/2025: Sunshine through afternoon high clouds, a biting afternoon breeze, and still quite cold. High: between -3 and +3. Winds: light early, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -13. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and becoming milder. Temperatures rising into the teens by the early morning hours. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 early evening, rising to between -10 and +10 during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/15/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, light winds, and seasonably cold. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: light early morning, becoming NW 8-15 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Even milder Tuesday and Wednesday (highs near or above freezing)??? Turning colder Thursday??? Uncertain precipitation threat Wednesday night and Thursday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 7 Friday night and Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 3 Tuesday and Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 24°F (set at 3:12 AM); Yesterday's High: 20°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM Thursday): 10°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 6 AM Thursday): 0.03 inch (2-day total: 0.54 inch); SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 6 AM Thursday): 1.4 inches snow (7.0 inches storm total)/0.03 inch liquid (0.49 inch total)

Next Update: Friday, December 12, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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