Wednesday, November 19, 2025  2:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Jacket and Hoodie Weather to Continue Through Weekend

Precipitation Band Produced Significant Southern Minnesota Rain, Some Flakes Mixed In

The bulk of yesterday's precipitation (a bit more to the north than the half inch or more (green) seen in southern Minnesota through 6 AM on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota precipitation map; set date to yesterday). And, some of the precipitation fell as sleet in Pipestone and Rochester, and there were sprinkles and snowflakes at Flying Cloud Airport in Eden Prairie (that didn't amount to anything). Yesterday's high temperatures to our south were held down a bit by the persistent clouds due to the wet ground, so Iowa and southern Minnesota saw upper 30's while readings climbed well into the 40's from the Twin Cities northward (see 3 PM Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

Another Seasonably Cold Morning

Yesterday's storm moved out of Iowa while stepping on the gas (all the way to the Mid-Atlantic States early this morning; see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). The evening clear skies (see College of DuPage North America shortwave infrared satellite loop) allowed temperatures to fall to the lower 20's and even some upper teens (set time to 05Z-09Z, 11 PM Tuesday to 3 AM Wednesday, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Persistent Weather Pattern to Limit Our Precipitation to a Few Evening Sprinkles Today

To our west this morning, you can really see storms in the two separate storm tracks in the latest College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop. Note the next low (counterclockwise circulation center) in the northern stream moving from Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, the southern storm track has the nearly stalled low along the California coast. That system is producing southwest-to-northeast flow in the Southern Rockies and the southern half of the Plains states. That southwest flow will be pumping quite humid air (dew points in the 60's, brown, on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) along and to the south of the front from Texas to Kentucky (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so there will continue to be the potential for major rainfall in California and Arizona during the rest of the work week and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys the next few days and back along the Gulf Coast over the weekend (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). However, the high moisture will not be able to get into the northern storm track, so our precipitation threats will remain small.

The best chance for seeing any precipitation over the next 7 days will be late this afternoon and this evening as the northern low tracks eastward through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. There are very few radar echoes right now (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) compared to the Monday system, so the precipitation potential will only be light (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with the best chance of light rain or flurries in northern Minnesota. Central Minnesota only has a small chance of a few evening sprinkles (still only 1 in 5). Other than this evening, I don't see even a limited chance for precipitation until next Tuesday and even that is uncertain.

Milder Than Average Through Weekend with 50's Possible at Times

Temperature-wise, we will continue to alternate between slightly warmer than average temperatures (highs in the 40's) today and Friday and much warmer than average temperatures (highs in the 50's) Thursday and both weekend days. The warmer days have the potential to be breezier. Given the very dry conditions in northern, central, and southwestern Minnesota, there will be an elevated fire danger on those afternoons, similar to yesterday.

Getting Colder Approaching Thanksgiving?

While I don't see a decent precipitation threat well into next week, forecasts from the past couple of days have shown the potential for a stronger cold front to come through sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. This system has the potential to knock temperatures below average next Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. However, it's too soon to make a solid guess about how cold it will be.

Winter Hazards Awareness Week Nov 17-21

Winter Hazards Awareness Week continues in Minnesota (also see page from NWS Duluth) and Wisconsin. Today's topic is fire safety, since the air inside your house is actually the outdoor air heated to room temperature (since no house is perfectly insulated). The University of Wisconsin-Madison has this experiment, in which you can bring in the outdoor air, then turn on the furnace to perhaps 70 degrees, and see what the relative humidity becomes. Thus, the attention to fire safety during the cold season. Other information is available on winter topics from the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 11/19/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and a little cooler. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy and milder with a chance for a sprinkle. Low: between 34 and 38, rising into the 40's by morning. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH evening, becoming SW 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 11/20/2025: Morning clouds, afternoon sun, breezy, and milder. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clearing, light winds, and colder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, W 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between 18 and 23. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday 11/21/2025: Sunny, light winds, and not quite as warm. High: between 43 and 48. Winds: S-SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Clear evening, some high clouds late, light winds, and chilly again. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: light evening, SW 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday 11/22/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear with light winds, but not quite as cold. Low: between 32 and 37. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH, diminishing late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 11/23/2025: More sunshine, perhaps dimmed by high clouds, breezy, and warm. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Seasonable highs in the 40's Monday??? Turning colder Wednesday through Thanksgiving Day??? No decent precipitation chance until Tuesday (and maybe not even then)????

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Tuesday through Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 47°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 22°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Thursday, November 20, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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