Tuesday, February 17, 2026  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Snow Likely North Tonight-Wed, Possible South and East Thurs Nt

Huge Snow Likely in Northern Minnesota Tonight and Wednesday...

Minnesota is still set up for potential precipitation from two storm systems, one moving slowly through the state tomorrow and a second system moving from Iowa or Missouri into Wisconsin or Illinois with the bulk of it Thursday night. That first storm, along the California coast (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), will produce a major snow threat across northern Minnesota with the potential for between 4 and 8 inches of snow, after a changeover, tonight and tomorrow (set tab to 00 UTC Thurs, 6 PM CST Wed, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). The immediate North Shore of Lake Superior could see at least 10 inches of snow.

But, Rain Tonight and Snow That Melts on Contact with the Ground Tomorrow in St. Cloud

Central Minnesota (from Willmar, Alexandria, and St. Cloud southward) has a good chance of precipitation with the bulk of it likely tonight through midnight (see Day 1 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). However, the air aloft will be mild enough for most of the precipitation to fall as rain (perhaps even a thunderstorm). The air will cool down aloft enough for wet snow late tonight and tomorrow, but ground temperatures are likely to remain in the middle 30's, so there is only a small chance for a brief accumulation. Then, any snow on the ground will likely melt.

Period of Ice Possible Further North

The most questionable area will be between Hwy. 210 and Hwy. 2. This area is likely to catch some of the persistent precipitation. It will likely begin as rain, then turning over to snow sometime tonight. A period of mixed sleet, freezing rain, and wet snow will be possible tonight. Then, the turnover to snow will happen sometime from late evening on. This area will have a chance for a light snow accumulation from late tonight to tomorrow (between 1 and 3 inches).

The National Weather Service has a winter storm warning in effect for northeastern Minnesota with a blizzard warning along the North Shore of Lake Superior. The rest of northern Minnesota has a winter storm watch. This area could also see power loss as the heavy accumulation combines with strong winds.

The second storm, along the British Columbia coast (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), will arrive either in Iowa or Missouri by tomorrow, then push into either Wisconsin or Illinois Thursday night. That question of track will make all the difference for a potential snowfall. If the path is further to the north, southern Minnesota will see snowfall Thursday into Thursday night. The northern track scenario also has the storm slowing down, so all of eastern Minnesota from Duluth through the Twin Cities to Jackson could see accumulating snow tomorrow night into Friday. However, if the storm takes more of a southern track, only light snow or flurries will be possible in southern Minnesota tomorrow night. The Day 4 panel of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather guidance is leaning towards the more northern track, but I am really not sure at this point.

If the northern scenario works out, places like Little Falls and St. Cloud might be on the western edge of the accumulating snow. If the southern track works out, there is still a possibility that a Yukon low may drift into the southern Prairie Provinces by Thursday and into Minnesota Friday or Saturday. That would keep a chance for occasional light snow or flurries in the forecast. Since ground temperatures are likely to return to seasonable highs in the 20's, a light accumulation of between a dusting and 2 inches might be possible during Friday and Saturday combined.

Large Snow Totals Likely in Northern Minnesota

That northern system will affect far northern Minnesota on Thursday, so there is a chance for an additional dusting to 2 inches of snow (set tab to 00 UTC Fri, 6 PM CST Thurs., on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance) over the areas that will see plowable snow tonight. Some of these areas could end up with more than 12 inches of snow total during the next 3 days with still lingering chances for light snow or flurries Friday and Saturday.

Return to Seasonable Cold With Chilly Breeze Friday Through Weekend

As noted above, we will see the return of highs in the 20's from Friday through the weekend and a day with highs in the teens may be possible. The winds will be relatively strong behind the system, but that would still only produce the worst wind chills in the plus single digits above zero. A low of zero would only be possible if the winds calm down and we have some snow cover.

The seasonably cold weather should continue into the first part of next week. However, it doesn't appear that we will see further threats for some snowfall until the middle of next week.

Not Quite as Warm Today, Then Cooler Beginning Wednesday

Yesterday, St. Cloud reached a high of 49 degrees (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) with most of southern Minnesota getting past 50 and southwestern Minnesota breaking 60 (set time to 18Z-22Z, noon-4 PM, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). We are quite mild beginning the morning (in the 20's to 30's again), but the increasing clouds will keep today's high to the lower 40's at best.

Cooler air will move in after the rain tapers off tonight, so highs Wednesday and Thursday will only be in the 30's, bringing an end to our streak of 40-plus highs. The February St. Cloud average temperature will get to more than 10 degrees milder than average as it increases when yesterday and today are added to it, but there aren't signs of similar warmth through the middle of next week.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 2/17/2026: A sunny start, then increasing clouds, blustery, and not quite as warm. A slight chance of a late day rain shower. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: E 10-20 MPH during the morning, 15-30 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% during the morning, 20% during the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with rain showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm through the evening into the early morning hours, then tapering to occasional sprinkles. Low: between 32 and 35. Winds: E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the evening, E 8-15 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable precipitation: 90% evening through 2 AM, 30% after 2 PM.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Wednesday 2/18/2026: Cloudy, breezy, and colder with occasional light snow or flurries. A slight chance for a brief dusting, but most snow will melt on contact with the ground. High: between 34 and 39. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 50%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and a bit cooler. Perhaps an early evening flurry. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH evening, 5-10 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Thursday 2/19/2026: Mixed sun and clouds. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: N-NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy and windy with a slight chance for a flurry. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Friday 2/20/2026: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow or flurries, breezy, and seasonably cold. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and colder with a slight chance for a flurry. Low: between 13 and 18. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 2/21/2026: Mixed clouds and sun with an occasional flurry, breezy, and a bit colder. High: between 18 and 23. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Highs still in the teens to near 20 Sunday and Monday, then seasonably cold through mid-week??? Maybe a mid-week storm???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Tuesday, 6 Tuesday night, 4 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 3 Thursday, 2 Thursday night through Saturday. 

Yesterday's High: 49°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 27°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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