Tuesday, May 5, 2026 1:40 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

How May Ice Out and Pollen Could Affect Weekend Activities

Notable Recent Days Have Been Cool

In the past few days, we had May Day without a frost (had one on April 30), but still a cool high in the 50's (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud observations from MesoWest) and May the Fourth with a pre-dawn high of 60, but temperatures plunging through the 50's during the afternoon, thanks to the cold front that came through early in the day (see green band of clouds on College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop).

Cool Through Wednesday Night With Frost Potential

Today, Cinco de Mayo, will be even cooler than yesterday, as we get deeper into the cool air mass that pushed in yesterday. The northwest wind (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) is likely to keep us from a frost, but we will likely have a near 50 degree high, more typical of late March or early April rather than early May

Tonight, we will have clearing skies and lighter winds, so we have the potential for lows in the upper 20's. The National Weather Service has a freeze watch out for tonight. And, we could have another frost early on Thursday.

The lack of rainfall, but cooler temperatures will limit the fire danger to high to very high, but not extreme.

What's Coming During an Important Weekend

There are more significant dates happening this weekend. The Minnesota fishing opener on Saturday will finally see some near average temperatures in the 60's after a cool start. The rate of ice out will slow some due to the cooler weather expected through Thursday, so some of the larger lakes in the Boundary Waters may still have ice (see Minnesota ice out reports from the Minnesota DNR). Mother's Day has become a little more uncertain with some indications of slightly cooler weather in one computer forecast. So, we could be either in the 60's or perhaps the upper 50's. 

On the other hand, the combination of the late April major rain, allowing greening of grass and ground plants and budding of the trees, strong winds, and lack of rain in the past week, despite radar echoes (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) due to the cold pocket of air aloft near the center of the low (see counterclockwise circulation center in southern Manitoba and western Ontario on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), has pushed the pollen counts into the very high category. Janet, my wife, and I have not needed the pollen.com site count, since we've been having stuffed heads, achy sinuses, and a steady supply of tissues since late last week.

The upcoming forecast shows very few chances for rain over the next week (see NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), so there won't be much allergy relief.

The St. Cloud April 2026 weather summary is now complete.  

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level (high): "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"    

 

Tuesday 5/5/2026: More clouds than sun with a slight chance for a sprinkle. Windy and cooler. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Early evening clouds, then clearing, light winds, and cooler. Good chance for hard freeze. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.  

Wednesday 5/6/2026: Again a sunny start, then becoming mixed clouds and sun midday and afternoon. Not quite as breezy with a few afternoon sprinkles. Still cool. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy evening with perhaps a sprinkle, then partly cloudy late. Perhaps a frost late. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: NW 5 MPH, light late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.  

Thursday 5/7/2026: Mixed clouds and sun again with a slight chance for a brief sprinkle, light winds, and a shade milder. High: between 57 and 62. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH morning, becoming NW 5-15 MPH afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Thursday Night: Clear to partly cloudy, light winds, but not quite as cool. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: E 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.  

Friday 5/8/2026: Mixed clouds and sun with a slightly better chance for sprinkles or brief showers, with closer to average warmth. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%. 

Confidence Level (medium): "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Friday Night: Lots of clouds and not quite as cool. A slight chance for a sprinkle. Low: between 42 and 47. Winds: light SW evening, becoming N 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.  

Saturday 5/9/2026: Perhaps a few morning showers, then mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and seasonably warm. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level (low): "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"     

Extended: Small shower chances through early next week??? Uncertain temperatures???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Tuesday through Wednesday, 7 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Sunday and Monday.              

Yesterday's High (set at 4:30 AM): 60°F; Yesterday's Daytime High: 58°F; Overnight Low (through 1 AM Tuesday): 38°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Tuesday): None

May 5 Historic Data
Temperature Category High Low

Average Temperatures

 63°F 40°F

Record Temperatures

 89°F (1918) 61°F (1926)
36°F (1944) 25°F (1944,1967)

Next Update: Wednesday, May 6, 2026 6 AM

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Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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