St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Overnight Storms Tapped Extremely Warm and Sticky Air

Sorry for the prolonged period of missing forecasts. St. Cloud State University activated security software for the program that sets up its website, but the software didn't account for off-campus people adding content. It took the IT people this long to figure out a way that I could get in. I understand your frustration (I shared them with all of the air pollution, fire condition, heat, and thunderstorm alerts over the past 8 days).

Today will be our last day with summerlike heat and Florida-type humidity (dew points in the 70's; see UCAR hourly dew point map). The end will come as a strong storm in Montana and Wyoming (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) will push into Manitoba by tonight. Ahead of this system, there were large thunderstorm complexes from Saskatchewan to Ontario and from the Dakotas into Nebraska and Iowa (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). Those storms produced many reports of wind damage to our west. Some wind gusts in west central and southwestern Minnesota have been as high as 70-83 MPH near Glenwood and Madison. 

As of 3 AM, much of the state of Minnesota were included within severe thunderstorm watches hose fast-moving storms pushed into Minnesota during the early morning hours (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Given the rapid northeast movement of the storms, the thunderstorms are most likely to affect eastern, especially northeastern Minnesota during the early portion of the morning rush hour. The rest of us will have leftover showers and thunderstorms tapering off during the rush hour.

Severe Threat in New PM Storms (Best Chance to East)

The low pressure system will pull its cold front through Minnesota late this afternoon and evening. New showers and thunderstorms will likely erupt by midday or early afternoon. While the front will be to our west, the best chance and the strongest of those storms are most likely to develop where there won't be a lot of leftover clouds and showers. So, the storms later today will be created somewhere over central or eastern Minnesota. Those storms will again move rapidly northeastward and become more severe as they move into the warmest and most humid air, most likely in Wisconsin. There is another category 3 of 5 threat for severe weather this afternoon and evening with all types of severe weather possible in the highest category area. The severe weather potential is category 2 of 5 in the Twin Cities and St. Cloud (still large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado), but I'd cautiously say that the central Minnesota severe weather threat is highest in western Wisconsin, possible along the I-35 corridor, northeastern, and southeastern Minnesota, and smallest, but not zero as far to the west as St. Cloud. You will need to monitor the National Weather Service watch and warning maps for the latest information. NOAA Weather Radio is a useful tool (more reliable than sirens) to get specific warnings for your home or office.

There is the possibility of spotty significant rainfall, but the strong upper level winds will keep the storms moving quickly so the odds of wide spread soaking rain are small.

Natural Air Conditioning Tomorrow Into Early Next Week

That cold front passing by early this evening will bring an end to our streak of very warm (highs in the 80's all but one day since the start of June; see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) and increasingly humid (see blue line mostly above 60 degree dew points on the 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperature and moisture from MesoWest).

Instead, the Montana-Wyoming low will pass, turning our flow to northwest-to-southeast, so we will have weather systems moving from the far northern Canadian Prairie Provinces and Nunavut moving in. That will bring in much cooler (high temperatures in the May-like 70's, perhaps even the upper 60's) and drier air, so the low temperatures on any clear, calm night will drop into the 50's and could fall into the 40's.

So, you should plan on a completely different wardrobe for any outdoor activities this weekend. You probably won't get wet, but jackets and even hoodies will be needed, especially if you are headed north.

And, keep in mind that the National Park Service has banned campfires in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area for the entire month of June. Even areas getting more than half an inch of rain will still be very short on moisture since the end of last summer. 

Shower Chances Tomorrow (Perhaps Friday), But Not Much Rain Likely

The low from today's storms will stall over western Ontario and a couple of smaller lows will drift across Minnesota, so there will be a good chance for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon. There might be a stray sprinkle on Friday night, but the bulk of the storms will go by to our south. The rainfall potential will be smaller tomorrow and Friday (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

We will hold on to the cooler temperatures through at least Tuesday. There is an uncertain chance for showers on Monday, but the computer forecasts disagree about the track and timing of that system.