St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Weather for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend will include

• Elevated fire danger in parts of northern and central Minnesota tomorrow 
• Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm especially tomorrow evening, but lingering towards Saturday morning in northern Minnesota. A chance for significant rainfall.
• Perhaps a few scattered thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday
• Highs 60's today and tomorrow, approaching 70 Saturday, in the near-average 70's Sunday, and into the 80's Monday (and at least Tuesday)
• Perhaps a frost threat early tomorrow in northeastern Minnesota, but the rest of Minnesota should be frost-free this weekend

Montana Low Produces Storm Threat, Mostly Friday Night into Saturday

The two main weather-makers for the upcoming weekend are the low pressure system over Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Montana (see counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) and the general southwest-to-northeast winds on the southern and southeastern flank of that low. That low is going to take the next four days to drift into Hudson Bay. When the low will be the closest, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. There won't be much severe weather potential, but the latest computer forecasts have at least a chance for significant rainfall Friday night into early Saturday (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The best chance of that important rain will be in western and northern Minnesota, where the biggest wildfire problems have been. There is still a good chance of elevated to extreme fire danger today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 60's, still dry air, and a bit more breeze before the showers develop.

Generally Frost-Free Weekend (Only NE Minnesota to Have Frost Threat Tonight)

There will be slowly increasing dew points and more clouds as the low approaches, so this morning will likely be the last in the 30's in central Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) with one more shot at some middle 30's lows in northeastern Minnesota early tomorrow.

Quick Transition to Highs in the 80's By Monday (and a bit Beyond)

After the low pushes far enough to the north and east, the high pressure causing the southwest-to-northeast steering winds will build into the Northern Plains by early next week. That will finally allow the return of near average highs (now in the 70's) by Sunday with 80's likely on Monday. There will also be more moisture in the air as dew points rise into the 50's after the shower and thunderstorm activity winds down Saturday.

Some Bumps in the Night Possible Early Monday

There may be a few scattered thunderstorms on Sunday night as the warmest of the warm air pushes into Minnesota. But, that will signal the start of really warm temperatures Monday, except along the North Shore of Lake Superior where the south wind will blow across the cooler lake water. 

80's Continue into Middle of Next Week (Uncertain Shower Chances)

The heat will likely continue through the early part of next week. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms after Sunday night will come when the slow-moving low pressure system over the eastern Pacific (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) pushes into the Plains. The forecasts of that system are uncertain, but we might see a better chance for showers and thunderstorms by the middle of next week.

In Your Outdoor Weekend Activities, Make Sure to...

So, the usual safety issues for your outdoor weekend plans will be:

• make sure your campfires are completely put out.
• watch for some cold water in streams and lakes up north
• have some protection from potential rain, especially Friday night and Saturday, and again early Monday.
• make sure to watch the number of hours you are out in the sun Sunday and Monday and use plenty of sun block (many of us could go from white skin directly to red if we overexpose)

Remember Why We Celebrate Memorial Day

And, take a bit of time to honor the sacrifice of those who have served our country.