Local Forecast


Friday, September 30, 2016 3:32 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Old Low to Bounce Back Like a "Reply All" Message

Better Chance for More Sun

(Note: There will be no forecast updates on Monday due to Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year)

It's still the same pesky storm dominating the flow pattern across the eastern two-thirds of the US (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). In such a stalled pattern, there are winners and losers, since we tend to keep the same weather. So, the Dakotas and Nebraska have been winners with plenty of sunshine with the seasonably cool September temperatures. The big losers have been southern Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois where the skies have remained mostly cloudy.

We have had low clouds, which can be seen yesterday afternoon on the infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu and overnight on the Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product. Daytime temperatures have climbed only into the low to middle 60's, but the clouds have generally kept lows in the 40's.

We will have our best shot at more sunshine today. I still expect some clouds to be mixed in, but I don't expect completely overcast conditions. The extra sun should push our high closer to the 70 degree mark.

With the main storm expected to drift back northward tonight and tomorrow, more clouds are likely to circulate across Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota. I think that any showers that leak through on the northern side of the storm will stay to our south and east, but we will again have the persistent clouds around. Northern Minnesota will have a better chance of more sunshine than we will.

Still, we will have our better shot at a dry weekend than we've seen the past few weeks. Enough sunshine should get through to allow highs to climb well into the 60's and possibly reach 70. The additional clouds should keep low temperatures closer to 50 degrees, rather than dipping into the lower 40's. I have a slight chance of a rain shower or sprinkle out, but the best chance for that will be in southern Minnesota.

Finally, by Sunday, the upper-level low pressure area will begin to drift eastward, pulling its clouds away from us. That will allow the southeast winds to begin to blow and start a slow warming trend. Highs will have a better chance of breaking 70 degrees Sunday into early next week. We may even notice the increase of dew points to the noticeable upper 50's.

Still, no storm is expected to be able to move in from the west until at least Wednesday of next week. So, I don't see much of a shower chance until then.

Persistent Rain Hits Detroit and Lower Michigan Through Tonight

As the slow-moving storm wobbled its way southward into Kentucky and Tennessee overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), most of the deep clouds were on the eastern flank of the storm and the rain persisted over Indiana, Ohio, and unfortunately Michigan. The Detroit area has picked up 3-5 inches of rain in the past day or two, leading to flooding problems. The storm will actually begin to drift back to the north, keeping the Detroit area in the rain through tonight. Many area roads are flooded.

Matthew Strengthening Rapidly in the Caribbean

Hurricane Matthew has rapidly intensified overnight. Top winds are now up to over 100 MPH. Despite the large cloud area, the strong winds don't extend far out, especially on the south side of the storm. Otherwise, there would be a bigger concern for the Venezuela and Columbia coast and its offshore islands (only tropical storm watch right now), especially since Matthew is expected to strengthen to at least a category 3 hurricane over the next day. The big question is whether Matthew will make a sudden northward turn by late in the weekend, which would threaten Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba. Forecasts for next week have shown Matthew approaching the US East Coast in different places, but those forecasts tend to be really unreliable, even when they are as consistent as they have been this week.

China Still Looking for Missing People During Typhoon Megi

The search continues for people missing after mudslides hit eastern China when Typhoon Megi came ashore. This was after Megi killed 5 people and injured over 500 others in Taiwan.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Friday 9/30: Increasing sunshine, breezy, and a shade warmer. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cool. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: E 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Saturday 10/1: Mixed clouds and sun, light winds, and continued seasonably warm. A slight chance of a rain shower. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, light winds, and not as cool. A slight chance of a rain shower. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: E 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 10/2: Partly to mostly sunny, light winds, and a shade warmer. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Sunday Night: Partly clear and seasonably mild. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday 10/3: Sunny to partly cloudy, warm, and becoming noticeably humid. High: between 72 and 76. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, milder, and noticeably humid. Low: between 54 and 58. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday 10/4: Partly sunny, breezy, warm, and uncomfortably humid. High: between 74 and 78. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%


Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Extended: Next chance of rain Wednesday? Thursday?

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Friday, 6 Friday night, 5 Saturday through Sunday, 4 Sunday night through Tuesday, 2 Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 66F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 49F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): None

Normal Temperatures for September 30 - High: 64F; Low: 41F
Next Update: Tuesday, October 4 8:00 AM (No forecast Monday, October 3 - Jewish New Year)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

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Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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