Local Forecast


Monday, January 23, 2017 3:27 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Remaining Mild With Some Wet Snow Tomorrow

Record-Breaking Gloom

The cloudy, clammy conditions took their toll on sinus, joints, the snow pack, and the record book over the weekend. Temperatures remained in the middle 30's, pretty much all day and night since Friday (see MesoWest 5-day temperature graph for St. Cloud). The highs in the middle to upper 30's were a good 10-15 degrees above average, but the low temperatures staying above freezing set the following record warm lows in St. Cloud:

  • Friday, Jan 20: low of 34 breaks record warm low of 32, set in 1900
  • Saturday, Jan 21: low of 33 falls short of record warm low (34, set in 1934)
  • Sunday, Jan 22: low of 33 breaks record warm low of 32, set in 1900

There is still a large area of low clouds covering the Plains from eastern Montana through the Dakotas into Missouri (see Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product). However, there has been enough northwest wind the past 24 hours (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart) to keep any areas of dense fog from forming. However, don't expect a lot of improvement in the sky conditions. Temperatures are hovering at or just below freezing.

The cloudy, murky conditions will continue today. Highs will again be in the middle to upper 30's.

Chance of Wet Snow Tuesday

The strong storm that hit the West and produced flooding along the central and southern California coast has pushed into the central Rockies (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), dumping more heavy snow in Utah. By tomorrow, this storm will move across Nebraska and southern Iowa. That path will produce a swath of snow, most notably across extreme northern Iowa and the southern third of Minnesota. It will be fairly warm at the ground, so this will be a relatively wet snow. Still, there will be the potential for 3-6 inches of snow across this area. There is a winter storm watch across this area. St. Cloud will be on the northern fringe of this system and could pick up an inch or two of snow from tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. The Twin Cities may see 2-4 inches from this system.

After the storm goes by tomorrow night, the big question will be whether we can clear out of these low clouds. Unfortunately, it looks like there will be some reinforcing upper level lows pushing southward into Minnesota. So, I don't have a lot of sunshine in the forecast through Thursday. Temperatures will remain on the mild side, although they won't be as mild as they have been over the past weekend. Highs will be a shade cooler, staying in the 20's to near 30.

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Sniff At My Feet While I'm Forecasting"

Monday 1/23/2017: Continued mostly cloudy, light winds, and seasonably mild. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: W-NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy and continued unseasonably mild. Low: between 28 and 32. Winds: S 5 MPH, becoming SE 5-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 1/24/2017: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and continued mild with a chance of light wet snow, mainly in the afternoon. Between a dusting and 2 inches of wet snow could accumulate by evening. High: between 32 and 34. Winds: E 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 60%.


Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Will Want Petting with One Hand, While I'm Typing the Forecast"

Tuesday Night: Wet snow, tapering to flurries by late evening. Turning windy and a shade colder late. Another dusting to an inch could accumulate. Low: between 24 and 28. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 60% evening, 20% after midnight.

Wednesday 1/25/2017: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and not quite as mild. High: between 28 and 33. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and still mild. A chance of flurries. Low: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday 1/23/2017: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a few scattered flurries. Not quite as warm. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.


Confidence Level: "The Rabbits Forecast That Most Precipitation Will Be in the Form of Lettuce"

Extended: On the cool side Friday with finally more sunshine??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Monday, 7 Monday night, 6 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 5 Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night and Thursday, 2 Friday.

Yesterday's High: 38F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 32F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Monday): None

Normal Temperatures for January 23 - High: 22F; Low: 1F
Next Update: Tuesday, January 24, 2017 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Weather Safety

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences Department home page.

Discussion Links Forecast