Local Forecast


Friday, November 28, 2014 7:45 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

New Snow Down, Maybe Some Spotty Freezing Drizzle Today

The snow is now moving out of eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop). There is another small area of snow in the Red River Valley. So, it's possible that we see some occasional light snow through mid-morning, but the bulk of the accumulation is over with about an inch in St. Cloud. Most roads in central Minnesota are still completely covered with snow, according to the latest MnDOT road conditions.

In between the steadier snow, some sleet or freezing drizzle is possible later this morning and into the early afternoon. That could cause some slippery spots, especially on sidewalks and driveways. Because of these conditions, the National Weather Service has a winter weather advisory out for tonight through 4 PM. Temperatures are in the plus single digits right now (see NWS Aviation Weather Center Minnesota map), but will only recover to the middle teens by afternoon.

Thawing Tonight and Especially Tomorrow

There is incredibly warm air to our west with temperatures from the Black Hills into Wyoming and Montana in the 50's and 60's (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). It would be nice to get that warm, but we have a good chance of some thawing tomorrow. Temperatures will rise into the lower 20's overnight with perhaps some patchy fog, then we could see some sunshine on Saturday with highs above freezing.

Back to the Arctic Air on Sunday and Monday

The next shot of cold air is due to begin Saturday night. There could be a little light snow or flurries after the cold front comes through early Sunday through midday, but I'm not sure about accumulation at this point. On the other hand, the cold air shot appears to be well set-up. Temperatures will fall from the upper 20's Saturday evening back to the 10-15 range by first thing on Sunday. The temperatures will likely continue to fall to the upper single digits by mid-morning, then only recover to between 10 and 15 Sunday afternoon. Northwest winds at 10-20 MPH will produce sub-zero wind chill for a good chunk of the day.

Monday looks to be even colder with a low in the minus single digits and a high in the plus single digits.

We could have some moderation towards the middle of next week with highs returning to the 20's on Tuesday. However, with very cold air continuing in Canada and mild air set up over the Central Plains, we could continue to see wild swings in temperature. These swings are also difficult to forecast 5-7 days in advance.

For the holiday weekend, the big trouble spot will be in the West with heavy rains and mountain snows. This precipitation is expected to spread to the northern California down to the Bay Area over the weekend.

Ground and Air Travel

Meanwhile, St. Cloud is within a half a degree of climbing into one of the 10 coldest Novembers on record. The average through Thursday so far is 23.5°F, 7.8°F below average. That currently is in 10th place, but milder weather today and tomorrow could push the average temperature up a bit.

This morning's 1.4 inch of snow pushes this November to 17.4 inches, nearly double the 8.9 inch November average. This ranks as the 8th snowiest November so far. And, the 35.94 inches of total precipitation in 2014 currently ranks as the 6th wettest entire year in St. Cloud records with nearly 5 full weeks left in 2014.

 

See Forecast Below

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Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

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Forecast:

Friday 11/28: Cloudy with occasional flurries. Perhaps some spotty freezing drizzle. Still January-like. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: ESE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Friday Night: Cloudy and milder. Perhaps some dense fog. Temperatures slowly rising to between 20 and 25. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Saturday 11/29: Early clouds, then some midday and afternoon sun. Actually seasonable temperatures. High: between 32 and 36. Winds: W 5 MPH. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, turning breezy, and colder. Occasional light snow or flurries possible in the early morning hours. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

Sunday 11/30: Becoming sunny, breezy, and much colder. Morning temperatures between 5 and 10, then rising back to between 10 and 15 midday and afternoon. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: Clear with diminishing wind and much colder. Low: between -10 and -5. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Wind chill: in the minus teens to -20. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/1: Sunny, less windy, and colder. High: between 3 and 8. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Monday Night: Thickening clouds, a chance of flurries late, and not as cold. Temperatures near 0 early, slowly rising into the lower teens by morning. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday 12/2: Cloudy in the morning, maybe some afternoon sun, breezy and more seasonable. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Extended: Very uncertain forecast in the middle of next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Friday through Sunday, 6 Sunday night, 5 Monday, 3 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 8F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 7F
St. Cloud Airport Precipitation: 0.14 inch/1.4 inch snow; SCSU Precipitation (Through 7 AM Friday): 0.13 inch/1.5 inch snow

Normal Temperatures for November 28 - High: 31F; Low: 15F
Next Update: Monday, December 1, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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