Local Forecast


Tuesday, April 28, 2015 3:01 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Spring-y Temperatures to Finish April

Discussion Links Forecast

60's and 70's Most of This Week

The slow-moving weather pattern near the US-Canadian border will continue to work wonders for our weather this week. Yesterday's high reached 70 degrees for the first time since April 18 with highs generally in the upper 60's to lower 70's throughout central Minnesota (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). The mostly clear skies early this evening allowed temperatures to fall back into the upper 30's(see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map)., but the next front has pushed all the way into the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). The area of clouds has shriveled compared to this time yesterday morning, so I don't expect to see the much chillier high temperatures that hit North Dakota and Montana yesterday (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). The front's eastward progress is being blocked by the slow-moving eastern Canada low, so it will linger across Minnesota today, so I expect a mixture of clouds and some sunshine. The clouds will likely keep our highs back into the 60's. There will be a few scattered rain showers, but I don't expect much more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain.

That front will move out of Minnesota tonight, allowing us to warm back up tomorrow. We will start the day with temperatures in the middle and upper 30's, but readings will recover into the 70's once again in the afternoon. The dew points will be very low, as they were yesterday. Despite the greening that has taken place, expect much of Minnesota to have a high fire danger, similar to yesterday. These conditions will persist on any warm day until we can get some substantial rain.

The rest of this week won't provide that needed rain since the northern storm track will continue to lack the moisture being held along the Gulf Coast by the parade of slow-moving storms. So, look for highs in the 60's with lows in the 30's and 40's right through the rest of the work week. Our next chance of rain will be early Friday as another moisture-starved front moved through. Again, it doesn't look like much.

Weekend to Feel May-ish

The first weekend of May will feel a lot more like summer than any time last week. High temperatures will climb into the 70's and perhaps break 80 degrees on Saturday. This would be right on time, since the average date of St. Cloud's first 80-degree high in the spring is May 5. Last year, we didn't have one until May 24. There will be more clouds late on Sunday as the next front approaches. I'm not sure how much rain this system favors, but the current late day timing means Sunday will be toasty as well.

Southern Louisiana Hit by Wind

The strong southern storm system pushed storms through east Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi yesterday (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). There was straight-line wind damage that began over eastern Texas in the early morning hours of Monday and pushed across Bayou Country after sunrise. New Orleans had wind gusts over 70 MPH and an offshore oil platform recorded a 101 MPH wind gust. An elevated train got blown off the bridge in the New Orleans area. The heavy rain also produced flooding in south Louisiana.

The thunderstorms from this storm system has pushed into the Southeast. More storms and heavy rain are likely from Gulfport and Mobile throughout Florida today. The rains will push into the Carolinas for the middle part of the week.

Several Boundary Waters lakes, including Lake Vermillion, lost their ice over the weekend. Only Lake of the Woods and some lakes in the Boundary Waters have yet to become ice free and this week's warm weather will certainly help.

See Forecast Below

Discussion Links Forecast

Forecast:

Tuesday 4/28: Mixed clouds and sun with a chance of a scattered afternoon rain shower. Not as warm. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: becoming NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear and cooler. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Wednesday 4/29: Sunny and warmer. Some late day clouds. High fire danger. High: between 70 and 75. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear, a bit of a breeze, and not quite as cool. Low: between 39 and 44. Winds: E-SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 4/30: Sunshine through high clouds and not quite as warm. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Thursday Night: Increasing clouds, breezy, and not quite as cool. Perhaps a late night rain shower. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday 5/1: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of a morning rain shower. Continued seasonably warm. High: between 64 and 68. Winds: E 8-15 MPH, becoming NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and continued seasonably mild. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 5/2: Sunny, windy, and much warmer. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: WNW 15-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Extended: Partly sunny and very warm again Sunday. Highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's. A temporary cool-off early next week.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Tuesday through Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 70F; Overnight Low (through 3 AM): 39F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation: None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 3 AM Tuesday): None

Normal Temperatures for April 28 - High: 63F; Low: 38F
Next Update: Wednesday, April 29, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

Discussion Links Forecast

Links:

Surface

Satellite

Discussion Links Forecast

Radar

Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel

Climate

Drought

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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Discussion Links Forecast