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Friday, May 9, 2008 7:07 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Synopsis:
"Here Comes the Rain Again, Falling on My Head Like a Memory"
The high and middle clouds did keep much of the sunshine out yesterday, especially during the afternoon, but the rain, as forecast, has mostly stayed to our south. You can see the clouds on the College
of DuPage North Central infrared satellite loop with the thicker clouds from northern Missouri into southwestern Minnesota. That also pretty much marks the northern edge of the rainfall as there are some echoes in eastern South Dakota and southern and west central Minnesota on the College
of DuPage North Central radar loop. The bulk of the rain is in eastern Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and northern Missouri, despite the loss of some Iowa radar data during the middle of the night. The UCAR
Minnesota surface chart loop shows that the rain indicated by radar isn't reaching the ground in Glenwood and Willmar, so only places like Luverne and Worthington have some light rain or drizzle, but the rest of the state is merely mostly cloudy. The persistent clouds have kept low temperatures well away from the freezing mark everywhere except along the Canadian border and along the Iron Range.
Our weather trend today will be towards increasing sunshine as the Nebraska low, seen as the center of the counterclockwise circulation on the College
of DuPage national 24-hour water vapor loop and as the ground low pressure in Kansas on the NWS
HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map both weaken and move eastward. Any showers with this storm should remain along the Minnesota-Iowa border. With a little more sun, temperatures should be able to climb into the lower 60's today, only a few degrees cooler than our normal high for early May.
Unfortunately, today will be the mildest day of the week as the stronger western storm, the counterclockwise circulation in southwestern Alberta on the College
of DuPage national 24-hour water vapor loop, will move to Des Moines by tomorrow afternoon and then to Illinois and Indiana for Sunday. This means that this storm will be close enough to us to cause a drizzly, rainy day for the fishing opener tomorrow. The only hope of some dry weather will be in northwestern Minnesota during the afternoon. The clouds and the storm track to our south will keep us on the cool side of this storm, meaning that temperatures will likely be only in the 40's while it's raining and probably top out only in the lower 50's. I am now not optimistic about the rain tapering off in the afternoon. The cooler temperatures and damp air will be driven by a biting east-northeast wind at 8-15 MPH. A general area of relatively low pressure will be over us during the afternoon, which means that the fish may bite better.
The computer forecasts are still inconsistent from one run to the next, but the trend is to slow progress of this storm as it intensifies on Saturday night and Sunday. This means that we could see some lingering rain or drizzle Saturday night. It also means that Mother's Day will start off cloudy. Any potential clearing could hold off until afternoon. The more persistent clouds and the storm being closer to us mean that temperatures will be held down into the 50's on Sunday. There will be a biting north wind, blowing at speeds of 10-20 MPH in the morning, but the winds will calm a bit during the afternooon. Still, of the two weekend days, Sunday will definitely be the better day. You have a better chance of catching sunshine and less wind by going westward on Sunday and that additional sun could push highs into the 60's in the Red River Valley.
Of course, the nicest day in sight appears to be Monday with seasonable temperatures in the 60's and a good supply of sunshine. The next slow moving storm is still forecast to move into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, then possibly stall just to our east for the middle and east of next work week. We could luck out with a decent Tuesday since the weekend storm will sweep the deep moisture off the Texas coast, so it will be hard for this storm to produce widespread clouds and showers on Tuesday. So, highs could climb well into the 60's on Tuesday, but expect lots of clouds, cooler weather, and rain chances from late Tuesday through Wednesday and perhaps even Thursday.
Climate Junk and Fishing Opener Hype
For the fishing opener, nearly all of the lakes in the Detroit Lakes, Brainerd, and Alexandria areas as well as Lake Mille Lacs will be ice free, as you can see on the lake ice report from the State Climatology Office. The smaller lakes in north central Minnesota and in northeastern Minnesota to the south of the BWCA are also ice free. However, the larger lakes have significant ice cover and most of that cover has been pushed to the southern portion of the large lakes. So, the thaw continues slowly but surely, running about two weeks late. The State Climatology Office has a report on average fishing opener weather. Again, it looks like the weather won't be great anywhere on Saturday, but the weather should be better in western and northwestern Minnesota on Sunday. Good luck. (Don't ask me about other details. My agenda for Saturday is to attend the SCSU graduation reception and to grade final exams, as is my usual during the second weekend in May.)
Today's
Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com shows lower pollen levels today, but we didn't get that much rain, so the windy conditions may end up producing high levels of pollen. With the recent wet conditions, there will continue to be high pollen levels under the sunshine.
The upper Mississippi River has returned to within its banks in Aitkin, so the flood warning has been cancelled. However, there is a chance that this part of Minnesota could pick up 1/2 - 1 inch of rain in tomorrow and tomorrow night's rain. We'll see how that affects rivers into early next week.
Given the persistent clouds and frequent rain chances in the forecast, it will be hard for St. Cloud to dry out enough to get a frost over the next week. Our best chance would be Sunday night and maybe Monday night. However, despite St. Cloud not having a low of freezing yet this month, there has been frost close to us, so I wouldn't assume that we are done with frost in the foreseeable future. As noted in the ice out progress, spring conditions have been emerging about two weeks late, so I would expect that we wouldn't be safe from frost for a while. The average day of the last frost in St. Cloud is May 18, according to data from the Midwest Climate Center, and the average day of the last 28 degree low is April 30. Having the clouds hang around a lot through next week should guarantee that we won't see any lows in the middle 20's through the middle of next week. Given that the latest day for a 28-degree low is May 20, it may be safe to put out the hardy plants. However, the main problem right now has been to get the ground to dry out enough for planting.
Links:
Surface
Satellite
Radar
Current Watches/Warnings
Road Reports
Climate
Drought
Forecast: Friday: Lots of high and middle clouds this morning, more sunshine in the afternoon and not quite as cool as yesterday. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Friday Night: Partly clear during the evening, clouding up after midnight with a slight chance of a rain shower towards morning. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: light NE. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Saturday (Fishing Opener): Rain or showers likely, breezy, and damp. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: ESE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall:
70%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Saturday Night: Cloudy with lingering light rain or drizzle, breezy, and damp. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: N 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.
Sunday (Mother's Day): Cloudy with perhaps some lingering morning drizzle, some sunshine by afternoon, windy through midday, and not quite as cool. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: N 10-20 MPH in the morning, NW 5-15 MPH in . Chance of measurable rainfall:
30%.
Sunday Night: Clearing and cooler. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.
Monday: Sunny to partly cloudy, turning breezy, and more seasonable . High: between 62 and 66. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH in the morning, 10-25 MPH in the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall:
10%.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Your Weather May (and Probably Will) Vary
Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy, and warmer with a slight chance of a shower. Low: between 45 and 52. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.
Tuesday: Mixed sun and clouds, breezy, and warmer with a slight chance of morning showers and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall:
30%.
Extended: Cloudy and cool with a better chance of rain Wednesday. Still lingering clouds and maybe some rain on Thursday. Highs in the 50's at best.
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 9 Wednesday, 8 Wednesday night and Thursday, 6 Thursday night, 5 Friday, 3 Friday night and Saturday, 2 Saturday night and Sunday.
Yesterday's High: 60°F; Overnight Low (through 7 AM): 42°F
24-Hour Precipitation: None (Airport through 6 AM); None (SCSU through 7 AM)
Growing Season Rainfall (April 1-current): 3.90 inches (Airport); Normal Rainfall: 2.69 inches
2007-2008 Seasonal Snowfall (through midnight): 52.2 inches (St. Cloud Reformatory); Normal Snowfall: 47.6 inches
Normal Temperatures for May 9 - High: 67°F; Low: 42°F
Next Update: Monday 8:00 AM or as needed.
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department temporary home page.
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