Local Forecast

Friday, November 27, 2015 1:57 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


Quieter and Cold Through the Weekend

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Light Snow and Ice Leaves Slippery Roads in Southern Minnesota

While the St. Cloud area had merely a few snow flurries yesterday morning, there were 1.3 inches of accumulation at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, 1.0 inch at Lutsen, 0.5 inch at Duluth, 0.2 inch at Eau Claire, and 0.2 inch at Rochester. In Rochester, it was a combination of snow and freezing rain. There have been as much as 3 inches in north central Wisconsin. The Minnesota Department of Transportation road reports show only some snow on the roads in a few parts of southwest Minnesota. Since temperatures have fallen back below freezing statewide, watch out for icy spots on untreated roads as you head out this morning.

All of the precipitation from this storm system has moved out of Minnesota as of 2 AM (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop) and skies have been clearing (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). That has allowed temperatures to fall to 20 degrees or colder in the northern two-thirds of Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map). The stubborn northwest wind has dropped wind chills down to the single digits above zero in most of central Minnesota (see NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up). There are even a few sub-zero wind chills in northwestern Minnesota.

Return of Sunshine Today

As promised, the weather will now quiet down for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will remain on the cold side, as I only expect high temperatures in the 20's today, around 30 tomorrow, and in the low to middle 30's on Sunday. Low temperatures will again drop into the teens the next two nights. The main good news is that, after today, the winds will drop off, so the seasonably cold temperatures won't feel as bitter as they are this morning.

Early Week Storm??

Minnesota's next big forecast question is where the large storm dominating the west (see counterclockwise circulation on the infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu) ends up going. The past few computer runs had taken this system to our west early next week, but the new information tracks this storm just to the south of Minnesota Monday night and Tuesday. That would be a favorable track for accumulating snow in Minnesota and the Dakotas, but that is still 4 days down the road. We've seen in the past week how a general storm forecast has or has not worked out 5-7 days in advance.

So, I'll keep watching the evolution of this system in the forecasts and updating this site.

As the front continues to push southward, there is a threat today of major ice accumulation across western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle with more icing problems in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. There could be enough ice accumulation to down trees and power lines. Further to the east, the heavy rains will continue with a risk of flooding from southern Missouri into Texas. This rain could slow down air traffic in Detroit, Chicago, and Dallas-Ft. Worth today (see FlightAware.com delays map)

Here's some useful travel links for this week:

Ground and Air Travel

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Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Friday 11/27: Sunny, less windy, and seasonably cold. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Clear, light winds and colder. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday 11/28: Sunny and continued cold. High: between 28 and 33. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear and not quite as cold. Low: between 17 and 22. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday 11/29: Sunny in the morning, increasing high clouds in the afternoon, and seasonably mild. High: between 34 and 38. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "A Squirrel Will Squawk At Me" (they really hate me...)

Sunday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and not as cold. Low: between 22 and 26. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Monday 11/30: Cloudy with a chance of snow by late in the day. High: between 28 and 33. Winds: E 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of accumulating snow (???) Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 50%.

Tuesday 12/1: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High: between 30 and 35. Winds: N 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Storm in the long-range forecast for Monday. We'll see if it's still in the forecasts a couple of days from now.

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Friday through Saturday, 7 Saturday nigth and Sunday, 5 Sunday night, 3 Monday through Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 35°F (set at midnight Wednesday night); Yesterday's Daytime High: 30F; Overnight Low Temperature (through 1 AM): 21F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Friday): Trace; SCSU Precipitation (through 3 AM Friday): Trace

Normal Temperatures for November 27 - High: 32F; Low: 15F
Next Update: Saturday, November 28, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Current Watches/Warnings

Ground and Air Travel



Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.

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