Local Forecast


Wednesday, October 22, 2014 3:22 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Sept-ober Returns

Yesterday ended up being the coolest day since Saturday, since high temperatures didn't make it to 60 degrees. (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany). Central Minnesota still had a good supply of sunshine and a brisk southeast wind (see NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations). Despite the mostly clear conditions overnight (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), temperatures are a good 5-10 degrees warmer than they were yesterday with most readings in the 40's (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop). That's because the southeast winds on the west side of the departing high pressure system (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) have kept up all night. We may end up with a low around 40, rather than the middle 30's of the past couple of nights.

The next weather system is a low pressure area trying to get going in the Canadian Prairie Provinces (see NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map). This system has already pulled a warm front to our doorstep. To the west of that front, temperatures are in the 50's in eastern South Dakota and 60's in central and western South Dakota (see UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop). There were loads of high 70's and lower 80's in the Plains from the Dakotas to Texas (see Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany) There is some decently moist air above the ground between the warm and cold front, although the dew points at the ground are mostly in the low to middle 50's (yellow and brown on the hourly UCAR dew point chart).

So, the big question for today remains how many clouds and how fast. I'm going to keep us at least partly sunny through a good chunk of the day, which will allow highs to climb back into the middle to upper 60's and perhaps make a run at 70. Eventually, the south winds ahead of the cold front will pull in enough moisture to bring in more clouds, but I won't go for a lot of them until late this afternoon. The cold front being yanked along by the low will come through tonight, giving us a chance of a few rain showers from late this afternoon until about midnight. This would be our first chance at measurable rainfall since Monday of a week ago, but I don't see a lot of rain coming. The forecasters at the NWS Weather Prediction Center have been shriveling the area of significant rainfall in Minnesota and the Dakotas all week. St. Cloud is now more than three and a quarter inches behind average (0.77 inch actual, 4.02 inch average) since September 10.

As noted earlier in the week, the air immediately behind this storm system won't be that cool. Once we get rid of the clouds tomorrow morning, expect high temperatures to resume being in the upper 60's to lower 70's through Friday. A slightly cooler air mass will try to build in for the weekend, so look for highs "only" in the middle 60's, rather than the 70 I had forecast earlier in the week.

There is still potential for a major storm system to come through early next week. We are forecast to be on the cool side of this storm when it's due to push into Minnesota and Wisconsin on Monday night and Tuesday. That could set up for the best chance of significant rainfall we've seen through most of the past five weeks, but the amount of available moisture might be limited. There may be showers and thunderstorms with ground temperatures only in the 50's by next Monday night and Tuesday.

See Forecast Below

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Forecast:

Wednesday 10/22: Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cool. A chance of rain showers late. High: between 65 and 70. Winds: SE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a good chance of mainly evening rain showers. Milder. Low: between 48 and 53. Winds: S 10-15 MPH, shifting to SW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Thursday 10/23: Becoming sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 66 and 72. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Partly clear and a shade cooler. Low: between 44 and 48. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday 10/24: Sunny and warm again. High: between 66 and 72. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and seasonably mild. Low: between 46 and 52. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.


End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Saturday 10/25: Sunny, breezy, and not quite as warm. High: between 62 and 66. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and seasonably mild. Low: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Sunday 10/26: Partly sunny, breezy, and warmer. Chance of a late day shower? High: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and relatively mild. Perhaps a stray shower. Low: between 52 and 56. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.


For Entertainment Purposes Only.

Monday 10/27: Clouding up with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms by late in the day. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 60%.

Extended: More rain Monday night into Tuesday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 7 Wednesday through Friday, 6 Friday night, 5 Saturday through Sunday, 4 Sunday night, 3 Monday and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 60F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM): 44F
St. Cloud Airport Rainfall (Since 7 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU Rainfall (Since 7 AM Tuesday): None

Normal Temperatures for October 22 - High: 54F; Low: 33F
Next Update: Thursday, October 23, 2014 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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