Local Forecast

Tuesday, August 4, 2015 4:27 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast


One More Dry Day, Then Storm Chances Return Late Tomorrow

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Finishing a Week of Dry Days, For the First Time Since Early March

While there is a line of showers and thunderstorms that developed overnight from western South Dakota into Nebraska (see infrared loop from College of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu), those storms are moving southeastward (see NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop), so we get to stay in the sunshine for the 7th straight day, the longest dry streak St. Cloud has seen since March 3-15.

We are off to another chilly start with temperatures near 50 in St. Cloud and back in the 40's in Paynesville and from Brainerd and Wadena northward (see NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map). We will again see a good supply of sunshine with perhaps a few stray clouds leftover from the morning storms to our southwest. Highs will rebound back to around 80 degrees, much like yesterday.

Best Chance of Storms: Wednesday Night, Thursday Night???

However, that area of storms to our west does mark the attempt of the brutally hot air that has reestablished itself in the West (high 90's in northeast Washington and northwest Montana) to push eastward again. This means the resumption of frequent shower and thunderstorm chances during the second half of this week. Tomorrow, we will see an increase in humidity with a chance of storms developing late tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. The severe weather threat from these storms won't be widespread. We will likely be in the warm sector Thursday. If we can get the clouds to break up in the afternoon, we could see highs well into the 80's. However, that will just prime the atmosphere for more showers and thunderstorms Thursday night as a low pressure system pushes right across Minnesota.

Cloudy North, Some Sun South Friday and Saturday

The cold front from this system will push through early Friday morning, so we should again see some afternoon sun. However, the upper-air low pressure system will push from the Canadian Prairies across North Dakota and into northwestern Minnesota by late Friday. So, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms by late Friday afternoon. Since the low will spend Saturday drifting across Lake of the Woods and the Rainy River, the northern third of Minnesota is likely to have a cloudy day with occasional light showers. Further to the south, we will see morning sunshine, but a fair number of afternoon clouds. There might be a stray sprinkle.

Sticky Tomorrow Night Through Friday

I don't expect us to break completely out into the warm sector of the late week storm, so I have highs near or a bit above 80 on Thursday and Friday. You will notice the increased humidity, which means tonight is likely the last chance for lows to drop to near 50 or a bit below. Lows will be near 60 on Wednesday night, then in the 60's on Thursday night. After the cold front comes through, temperatures should be able to drop back into the upper 50's on Friday night.

The long-range forecasts show that the main storm track will again camp out in the Northern Plains, meaning that Minnesota will be close to the boundary between cooler Canadian air and the big heat. So, showers and thunderstorms will be triggered by any storm moving along the boundary. The forecasts say that Sunday night would be our next shot at storms. However, the computers get much less trustworthy that far out, so it's hard to say when the best chance of storms will be beyond the weekend.

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Confidence Level: "I Will Still Have Dandruff Tomorrow"

Tuesday 8/4: Sunny, not quite as breezy, and continued seasonably cool. High: between 77 and 82. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and continued cool. Low: between 47 and 52. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 8/5: Partly sunny and warmer. A chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30%.

Wednesday Night: Clouding up with showers and thunderstorms likely. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: light E. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Confidence Level: "The Twins Will Finish Above .500"

Thursday 8/6: Some lingering morning showers and thunderstorms, maybe some afternoon sunshine with perhaps a stray storm, breezy and more humid. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Thursday Night: Evening showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy and humid with perhaps a lingering early morning shower. Warm and sticky. Low: between 64 and 68. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH, becoming NE late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 70%.

Friday 8/7: Cloudy in the morning, some afternoon sun, but still a chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, becoming breezy and less humid. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday Night: Partly clear and seasonably mild. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "The Cat Will Not Sit on My Grading"

Saturday 8/8: Morning sun, afternoon clouds, breezy, and warm with comfortable humidity. High: between 76 and 82. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Extended: Sunday highs near 80. Next round of storms Sunday night???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Tuesday and Tuesday night, 7 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 5 Thursday and Thursday night, 4 Friday and Friday night, 3 Saturday, 2 Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 79F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM): 50F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None; SCSU Precipitation (Through 4 AM Monday): None

Normal Temperatures for August 4 - High: 82F; Low: 58F
Next Update: Wednesday, August 5, 2015 8:00 AM (or as needed)

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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