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Friday, February 3, 2012 5:40 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast
Synopsis: I'm Tired of the "Little Cat Feet"
Dense Fog Advisory Through 10 AM
Unfortunately, the threat of persistent fog is present anytime we are relatively mild during the winter. The sun isn't strong enough to heat the ground through the low clouds, and when there is warm air aloft and cooler air trapped near the surface, we can have periods of time with light winds or winds blowing from where there is fog as well. The clearing made it as close to us as Willmar, where it got to 46 degrees, and Alexandria, where it got to 41 degrees, but the area of low clouds on the Colorado
State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product and dense fog is more widespread this morning. However, the visibilities in central Minnesota (drag cursor from here to zoom in, then check visibility) are a little bit higher than they were yesterday, thanks to a light northeast wind that kept up all night. On the other hand, a steadier freezing drizzle than yesterday has created more widespread ice on untreated surfaces.
At this point, MnDOT has slightly better driving conditions than yesterday morning shown on the Minnesota
Road Reports, but there are still a couple of early morning accidents showing up. So, you'll be able to see the slippery spots a little further ahead than yesterday, but you'll still have to slow down.
I think that we have still another day of low clouds and fog. The light northeast winds will continue today, and the fog won't be as dense, but it will look a lot like the last two days and, with the drizzle, it probably will feel more miserable. All of the low clouds will stay with us through tonight, so fog will thicken again, although I think we will see a persistent northeast wind, so we may only see the very low visibility in a few spots. Again, look for slippery spots because of patchy freezing drizzle.
I am hopeful that the high pressure area over Montana on the NWS
HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map will carry some of the drier air underneath into our area. However, I am a bit uneasy that the fog has spread westward into North Dakota this morning, and so that the high pressure area will end up bringing back the moist air. I'm still going for improving conditions on Saturday afternoon with a sunny Sunday, but I am a bit more nervous about the forecast.
Other than the fog problems, our weather for the next week will be uneventful. When we get more sunshine, temperatures should climb to the middle to upper 30's and perhaps hit 40. Low temperatures will be able to drop to around 20 degrees or even lower.
Cooler air will build in temporarily for Tuesday and Wednesday, so highs will be in the more normal 20's, but highs will likely climb back into the 30's on Thursday.
Mild Weather Can't Continue Forever, But Will We Get Really Cold at the End of Next Week?
There is still the likelihood that some of the very cold air in Alaska and the Yukon (temperatures along the Arctic coast of Alaska and northwestern Canada in the -30s and -40s on the NWS
HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map) will push into central Canada by the beginning of next week, thanks to a major change in the steering winds. The core of the coldest air (red and yellow on the Unisys 10-day 850 mb forecast) still looks to stay in central and eastern Canada, but we could get a glancing blow from the cold air (purple showing up in Minnesota), producing a day or two of near normal or below normal temperatures. Still, it doesn't look like anything to be concerned about.
Snow? I just don't see any through the middle of next week.
Central US Storm Will Dominate the Southern Two-Thirds of the Plains
The snowstorm is progressing from Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska (see radar loop on College
of DuPage Satellite and Radar Menu). Heavy snow is expected and strong winds are expected in eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, and Kansas today, so there is a blizzard warning with some areas possibly ending up with a foot to a foot and a half of new snow by the end of tomorrow. The snow will push into the Omaha area tomorrow, but it won't be as heavy as further to the west.
To the south, enough moisture is now arriving into Texas and Oklahoma to produce some heavy rainfall over the next two days in the central and southern Plains. Severe weather is possible in parts of Texas and Oklahoma today. There's already a tornado watch in southwestern Oklahoma. Some early morning storms in the Texas panhandle have produced wind gusts to 74 MPH and hail up to golf ball sized.
Final Official January Statistics Show....It Was Mild
The average January 2012 temperature is now final with a January 31 low temperature of 31 degrees. That nudges the average January 2012 temperature of 20.3°F, 8.7°F above normal. So, January did remain as the 8th warmest January in St. Cloud records, but came within one-tenth of a degree of tying for 7th place. That average temperature is more typical of the last week of February than January. St. Cloud still has had warmer Januaries twice in the past 10 years: 2006 (warmest January on record) and 2002 (tied for the 5th warmest).
This January will also be notable for 7 record warm temperatures broken or tied, the earliest 50-degree high in St. Cloud records (53 degrees on January 5), and more January highs above 45 degrees than we've seen since the first half of the 20th century.
And, there was actually snow. The January snowfall ended up being 9.5 inches, about an inch and a half higher than the average 7.9 inches. The 9 days with measurable snowfall was higher than the average of 7.5 days. We've had 4 January days with at least an inch of snow, a bit higher than the average of 3.1 days. However, the 2011-2012 cold season total snowfall stands at 16.2 inches, more than 11 inches behind the average of 28.5 inches and way behind last year's 40.3 inches to date.
However, the running totals of typical winter extremes show that we are having an extremely wussy winter so far.
Links:
Surface
Satellite
Radar
Current Watches/Warnings
Road Reports
Climate
Drought
Forecast: Dense Fog Advisory Through 10 AM
Friday: Areas of freezing drizzle and dense fog early, mostly cloudy with spotty drizzle the rest of the day. High: between 32 and 35. Winds: NE 4-8 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with areas of dense fog redeveloping. Freezing drizzle and slippery areas on untreated surfaces are likely. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: light NE. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Saturday: Early fog, clouds, and perhaps some spotty freezing drizzle or drizzle, then some periods of afternoon sun and a bit milder. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: N-NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Saturday Night: Partly clear and a shade cooler. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: light NW. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Sunday: Sunny and continued mild. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty
Sunday Night: Mostly clear and cool. Low: between 18 and 23. Winds: W 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.
Monday: Sunny and continued seasonably mild. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH, shifting to NE 8-15 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Monday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and cooler. Low: between 14 and 18. Winds: NE 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Tuesday: Sunny and more seasonable. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
For Entertainment Purposes Only.
Tuesday Night: Clear and chilly. Low: between 5 and 10. Winds: light. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Wednesday: Sunny to partly cloudy and still relatively mild. High: between 25 and 30. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Wednesday Night: Partly clear and not as cold. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Thursday: Sunny, breezy, and warmer. High: between 32 and 36. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.
Extended: I can't even see the next decent chance of snow for the next week.
Extended About Trivia: NY Giants 30, New England 13 (Nooooooooo!)
Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will
cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 8 Friday and Friday night, 7 Saturday, 6 Saturday night and Sunday, 5 Sunday night and Monday, 4 Monday night and Tuesday, 3 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night and Thursday.
Yesterday's High: 32°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM): 30°F
St. Cloud 24-Hour Airport Precipitation (through 5 AM): None; SCSU Precipitation:
None
2011-2012 St. Cloud Snowfall: 16.2 inches; Normal
2011-2012 Snowfall: 28.5 inches
2011-2012 St. Cloud Days with a Snow Cover: 28 days;
2010-2011 St. Cloud Days with a Snow Cover (thru Feb 3): 76 days
Normal Temperatures for February 3 - High: 23°F;
Low: 3°F
Next Update: Monday 8:00 AM (or as needed)
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU
meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!
Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so,
go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department home page.
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