St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Why Were Yesterday's Thunderstorms Different Than Earlier Days?

The Friday night showers and thunderstorms developed further to the south than on previous days. That kept many leftover clouds out of Minnesota, except in the northern part of the state. While the strongest storms yesterday afternoon and evening were either in Kansas and points south or Illinois and points east (see College of DuPage continental US clean infrared satellite loop), they didn't interfere with the development of new storms in the Dakotas and Minnesota ahead of the next low pressure trough (wind switch from southwest to the east of the system to northwest in Montana on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). So storms developed yesterday afternoon in the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota, which pushed southeastward during the evening (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). These storms produced a few reports of large hail in St. Cloud, as well as Long Prairie and Sauk Centre, some wind damage near Round Prairie and Pine City, and funnel clouds near Buffalo. There was also locally heavy rain, as St. Cloud State University picked up 1.90 inch, and the St. Cloud Sky Harbor Airport reported 1.22 inch of rain, 1.13 inch falling in a single hour (note that the present weather sensor at St. Cloud still isn't reporting rain in the weather category, but shows the hourly rainfall during the thunderstorm; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). Paynesville picked up 1.34 inch in an hour and 1.35 inch overall and Buffalo had 1.11 inch. That rain produced localized flooding in St. Cloud and ended up delaying or canceling some fireworks further to the south.

More Intense Heat, Humidity, and Storms (750+ Damaging Wind Reports) to South and East

We didn't have the extreme heat and humidity (see highs in the upper 90's in Oklahoma and Texas, and 100-plus from Pennsylvania and New Jersey southward on yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) plaguing the stronger storm areas south of Missouri and the East Coast (over 750 reports of wind damage, blue on the NWS Storm Prediction Center storm reports for July 4).

A Bit Less Humid, So Fewer Storm Chances Today

The upper-level system in the Dakotas has pushed a cold front through Minnesota overnight (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC US surface maps). It wasn't that much cooler to the north of that front yesterday afternoon (middle 80's in most of northern Minnesota, except where the east wind blew Lake Superior air onshore; see yesterday's 4 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), but the air is slightly less humid (dew points in the upper 50's to lower 60's on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

We will have a somewhat reduced chance for showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. While the bulk of today's showers and thunderstorms will concentrate to our south (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), there will be enough lingering warmth and humidity to produce a few scattered showers and thunderstorms (1 in 3 chance). Since the upper air winds are weak, there is the possibility of a few locally heavy downpours.

Light Winds May Allow Firework Leftovers to Linger

Given the weak winds in our area, some of the smoke particles from fireworks celebrations could linger today for a while. The air quality index will more likely stay in the moderate (yellow on the EPA fire and smoke map) rather than the orange or even red that existed last evening.

Turning Warmer and More Humid Tomorrow

Tomorrow, we will still be between significant upper-air storms, but the winds will turn to the southeast, which should again allow the dew points to reach the upper half of the 60's. Highs will climb into the upper 80's with perhaps a shot at a 90 degree reading. The higher humidity might trigger a late day shower or thunderstorm (1 in 5 chance).

Better Chance (??) for Thunderstorms Some Time(s??) Tuesday And/Or Wednesday (??)

During the following two days, an uncertain storm system will move in the west-to-east flow from the eastern Pacific along the US-Canadian border (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). The best lift will be either in Canada or on the US-Canadian border, but that system will drag another cold front into Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms will tend to concentrate along or just to the north of the cold front, where the hot and humid air lifts over the slightly cooler air. That would set up the potential for a few thunderstorms producing large hail or damaging winds (see Days 2 and 3 of the NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlook). In areas that have receiving substantial rainfall during the past week, there might be the potential for flooding, since the upper-air winds won't be that strong (see Days 2-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Since the computers cannot agree on the timing and strength of this system, I am not sure whether one of these systems is real, and if so, when the best chance for storms will be. For now, I have a 40% chance for Monday night storms and a good chance (at least 50-50) for storms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. I do not know whether our best chance for Tuesday storms will be morning, late afternoon, or both and how much sunshine will get through.

Perhaps Less Storm Chances Wed-Thu

The latest computer forecasts have whatever storm system may be around pulling its cold front past central Minnesota for Wednesday and Thursday. That would be our next opportunity for smaller thunderstorm threats. 

There are no clear signs of any really hot air getting into Minnesota through next week, but we will likely trend towards highs in the 80's with uncomfortable humidity (lows in the 60's) with uncertain chances for storms again.

June 2026 Weather Summary Available

The top story in my completed June 2026 St. Cloud weather summary is insufficient drought relief (set NWS Water Prediction Center Minnesota rainfall map to the month of June). While parts of central Minnesota from Wheaton to Hutchinson had over 5 inches of June rainfall (red), large portions of Minnesota merely were in the green (two inches, below average for June). The St. Cloud Airport was near average (3.62 inches, average June rainfall 3.75 inches).