Friday, December 12, 2025  3:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Waxing Poetic About the Upcoming Cold

The leading edge of a significant arctic air outbreak is now pushing into northwestern Minnesota (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The air cold enough to have temperatures that look like middle cloud temperatures is pushing through Saskatchewan (see either Pacific clean infrared satellite loop from Colorado State satellite slider or College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) and weather forecasters seem to be struck in the poetic mode. A forecaster at NWS Duluth called this cold outbreak 'leviathan' (see 3 PM Thursday version of forecast discussion) while an NWS Twin Cities forecaster wants to bring out the hot cocoa and the cozy blankets. I decided to join in on the poetry, so I found this Andrew Wyeth quote: "I prefer winter and fall when you feel the bone structure of the landscape - the loneliness of it, the dead feeling of winter. Something waits beneath it, the whole story doesn't show." On the other hand, Aristotle wrote: "To appreciate the beauty of a snowflake, it is necessary to stand out in the cold."

Cold Weather Advisory Beginning Late Today and Continuing Through Sunday Morning

If you choose to follow Aristotle from midday today through Sunday, you'll need to be prepared. The National Weather Service has a cold weather advisory for most of Minnesota and Wisconsin from this evening in northern Minnesota and midnight tonight in central and southern Minnesota all the way through 10 AM Sunday. This cold weather advisory is the new product that says that 'cold is cold' (to quote that NWS Twin Cities forecaster) whether it is wind chill or temperature.

We will begin to see wind chills in the minus teens and creeping towards -20 to -25 by late today. Temperatures will fall below zero by evening, then likely drop to around -10 by tomorrow morning, so wind chills will be in the -35 to -20 range. On Saturday, the temperature likely won't get to zero, perhaps approaching the December 13 record cold high of -3. The persistent winds will keep wind chills in the -30's and -20's through much of the morning, perhaps easing to the minus teens during the afternoon.

The arctic high, now in the Yukon with more widespread temperatures in the -40's and -50's (see 3 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), will push through South Dakota and into Iowa on Saturday night. This will allow the winds to lighten, but they may not go completely calm. If the winds calm, we have the potential for a low in the -20's, cold enough to cause starting problems for vehicles left outside. If the winds stay up, temperatures will bottom out in the minus teens, but wind chills will drop to the -40 to -25 range. Sunday's high will make another run at zero. The wind will be light until the afternoon, but that could still produce some wind chills in the -30 to -25 range.

Cold Weather Safety Steps

Keep in mind that exposed skin can freeze in 30 minutes or less at wind chills of -25 or colder. That time drops to 10 minutes or less for wind chills of -35 or colder. If you go out, you should wear clothing that covers all exposed skin. More importantly, don't get yourself into a situation that requires you to be outside for long periods of time. Any pre-Christmas or holiday activity should include packing that cold weather supply kit in your vehicle.

Icy Roads Possible in Blowing Snow

As I noted yesterday, much of central Minnesota's snow pack is now at least 10 inches and the top portion of our snow pack is loose. There could be another dusting to a fluffy inch this morning as the arctic front comes through (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop for radar echoes and NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map for places where the snow is reaching the ground). So, there will be low visibility due to blowing and drifting snow in open areas. That will also produce icy spots on roads (note that there are still some partially covered main roads due to blowing on the MnDOT Minnesota road reports). More roads will have this problem beginning later this morning. Given today's cold temperatures (falling back from the teens early this morning to the plus single digits much of today), there will be icy spots anywhere there is blowing snow. Winds strong enough to blow the snow will continue this afternoon and this evening.

You can use the following links:

• NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map for temperatures, visibility, and snowfall
• NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for temperatures, wind speeds, and wind chill
• NWS Minnesota watch-warning map for cold weather advisory statements (also there will be winter weather advisories in South Dakota and perhaps extreme southwest Minnesota for potential 2-4 inch snow tomorrow).
• NWS cold weather safety page, including indoor and outdoor steps

Elsewhere, Flooding in NW and We Send Our Cold Downwind...

Meanwhile, heavy recent rains are producing major flooding in the Pacific Northwest. And places downwind of us will be getting some of the arctic cold (again, it's not a polar vortex as long as the core of the coldest air remains in Canada; follow the dark blue colors that break up over the Great Lakes when you step the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map forward, right arrow). I'm sure announcers will be whining during Sunday's Midwest and East Coast football games.

...So We Can Warm and Perhaps Thaw Some First Half of Next Week

Believe it or not, the northwest-to-southeast steering winds will shift to west-to-east behind the arctic high, so we will see temperatures climbing Sunday night. We will see highs above freezing and perhaps approach 40 by Tuesday.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Friday 12/12/2025: Any lingering snow tapers off during the early morning with a chance for between a dusting and an inch. Then, partial clearing, windy, and much colder. Low visibility due to blowing snow in open areas. Early morning temperatures in the teens, falling into the plus single digits during the middle of the day, then dropping to near zero by sunset. Winds: NW and increasing to 10-25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH by midday and continuing during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -25 and -10. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly clear, still breezy, and much colder with serious wind chills. Low: between -13 and -8. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -35 and -20. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 12/13/2025: Ineffective sunshine, a painful breeze, and likely the coldest day of the season thus far. High: between -5 and 0. (record cold high: -3 in 1985). Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -35 and -15. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly clear, light winds, and likely the coldest night of the season so far. Serious wind chills during the evening. Low: between -23 and -15. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light late at night. Spotty wind chill: between -40 and -25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Sunday 12/14/2025: Sunshine through afternoon high clouds, a biting afternoon breeze, and still quite cold. High: between -3 and +3. Winds: light early, SE 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -13. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and becoming milder. Temperatures rising into the teens by the early morning hours. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 early evening, rising to between -10 and +10 during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/15/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, light winds, and seasonably cold. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: light early morning, becoming NW 8-15 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Monday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and seasonably cold. Temperatures near 10 by midnight, rising through the teens during the early morning hours. Winds: light evening, SE 5-10 MPH during the early morning hours. Wind chill: between -10 and +10 during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/16/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and much milder. High: between 35 and 43. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Still mild Wednesday (highs near or above freezing)??? Turning colder Thursday??? Uncertain precipitation threat Wednesday night and Thursday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday through Saturday, 6 Saturday night, 7 Sunday through Monday, 5 Monday night and Tuesday, 4 Wednesday.

Yesterday's High: 18°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Friday): -2°F;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Saturday, December 13, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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