St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Severe Storms in Southern Minnesota Weakened Storms to North

Showers and thunderstorms moved through much of Minnesota yesterday afternoon and evening (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). The most severe thunderstorms developed as expected since the Dakota storms intensified as they hit the ripest air in southeastern South Dakota and new storms developed over eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota (see College of DuPage north central clean infrared satellite loop). Those storms produced a few tornadoes in those parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and southwestern Minnesota, including a tornado that crossed I-90 near Northrop, plus large hail and damaging winds. However, the development of stronger storms to the south weakened the storms in northern, west central, and central Minnesota. While the St. Cloud Sky Central Airport had strong winds gusts when the line of storms came through near 9 PM (top gust: 53 MPH at 9:07 PM), there was only 0.05 inch of rain (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). That also meant that only light rain fell on the areas having the wildfires to our north (see EPA Fire and Smoke map; news on Two Harbors fire and Breezy Point fire).

One weak low pressure system along the front near the Minnesota-Iowa border, pulled the really ripe air (dew points in the upper 60's, brown areas from eastern Iowa southward on the UCAR hourly dew point map) over the front, producing those large showers and thunderstorms.

Central Minnesota to be Have Shower Chances, But Better Ones to South Today

The strong storms to the south will end up pulling the front southward today. There is actually a greater threat of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (red, category 4 of 5 on the NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook) with stronger tornadoes in the areas that end up being just to the south of the overnight storms, mostly likely in central and eastern Kansas, perhaps southern Iowa, and parts of Missouri. South central and southeastern Minnesota retain a threat of damaging winds and large hail (category 2 of 5, yellow) today, but the rest of Minnesota should only have a slight chance for severe storms when they redevelop this afternoon.

The chance for important rain in northern and central Minnesota will again depend on storms surviving when the stronger storms to our south take up most of the moisture. So, I have a chance for scattered showers with perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, but the chance for significant rainfall is much less than had been thought earlier (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). We will have a lot of clouds, but perhaps some periods of sun possible through the midday and perhaps afternoon. Highs should get into the 60's once again. 

Major Cooling for Mid-Week (Tuesday Night Frost Potential) 

Then, the much cooler air from the west side of Hudson Bay moves in for the middle of the week. The northwest winds will pick up to 10-20 MPH tonight and 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH tomorrow (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest winds, gusts, and, yes, wind chills, which will be in the 30's early tomorrow). Temperatures will fall back into the middle 40's by morning and climb only to around 50 degrees or a bit above tomorrow afternoon. Given the drier air coming in, the lack of rain in northern and central Minnesota, Tuesday will be another day of very high fire danger.

The winds will calm down Tuesday night, which will likely allow widespread 30's for low temperatures. There will be a chance of central Minnesota frost with frost likely in northern Minnesota on Wednesday morning.

Slow Moderation Late Week (Small Chance for Showers?)

We will have more sun on Wednesday compared to Tuesday, so highs will climb to around 60 after the cold start. There will be only a slow increase of temperatures at the end of the work week into the early weekend with highs in the 60's. There will be a parade of west-to-east moving storms by late in the week. The timing of these systems is uncertain (one may stall just to our west), but the rainfall potential doesn't look great at this time. There might be a day with more clouds, which would keep highs in the upper 50's, rather than the 60's. I don't see a return for typical late May highs (near or above 70) until at least Sunday.

And, there will continue to be a wildfire risk, especially in northern and central Minnesota that have gone without much of this weekend's rain.