St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Blustery and Warm Tuesday Triggered Some Wildfires

Since the cold front came through early on Tuesday morning without producing much rain getting to the ground (set NWS Water Prediction Services map to zoom in on Minnesota and yesterday's date), despite the radar echoes (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), Minnesota was set up for another dry (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), seasonably warm (see 4 PM CDT Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), and blustery day. St. Cloud's top wind gust was 46 MPH near 4 PM (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) while some gusts in southern Minnesota topped 50 MPH (select 2-5 PM versions of the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). Dew points were in the 30's and 40's rather than the weekend 20's, but relative humidity still fell to 30-40 percent. That combination has allowed some spotty wildfires to develop over Minnesota, despite the recent greening.

High to Extreme Fire Danger to Continue Well Into Weekend

While it won't be as breezy today as yesterday, the high to very high fire danger will continue across Minnesota until late this week, when more humid air will move in.

Warming Trend With Friday the Surest Chance for a Run at 80 Degrees

Highs will slowly warm from today through at least Friday. Since the upper level low near Minnesota yesterday (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) is pushing away, we will see more sunshine and fewer afternoon clouds, so highs will climb to near 70. We will go back to blustery conditions tomorrow ahead of a warm front pushing through. Highs will be in the 70's and dew points will climb into the 40's to near 50.

Showers to Only Produce Small Rain Totals Thursday

A warm front will push through Minnesota tomorrow, perhaps producing some showers and thunderstorms between midday and early evening. The increased moisture will give us a better shot at seeing some of the rain from the storms actually reach the ground, but rainfall will likely be limited to a few hundredths of an inch in most places. (see Days 2-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). 

Extreme Fire Danger Likely Friday

Friday has consistently appeared to be the warmest day of the week in all of my forecasts. Highs will be in the upper 70's to perhaps near 80. However, there now is a trend for major drying on Friday. The combination of the warmest temperatures, winds returning to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, and drier air will likely produce another extreme fire danger day on Friday.

So, avoid any outdoor burning until we get more significant rain. Don't get fooled by the green grass and budding trees.

Saturday and Sunday temperatures are more uncertain. The warm front that pushes northward on Thursday will have a shot to move southward again on Friday night. That will put us in slightly cooler air and more clouds will be possible, which could limit high temperatures to the 70's, but there are mixed results in the various computer forecasts. At this point, the rain chances through Saturday continue to be small. We may be able to avoid the extreme fire danger levels over the weekend, because it is expected to become noticeably humid. 

Good Chance for Significant Rainfall in Parts of Minnesota Sun-Mon

The latest long-range computer forecasts have begun to agree more about a Pacific storm moving into the West Coast over the weekend and into the Plains by Sunday night or Monday. The inflow of Gulf of Mexico moisture will mean the potential for significant rainfall in showers and thunderstorms. So, we have an opportunity for some major Minnesota rain amounts (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Still, it will be thunderstorms, so there will be gaps in timing and the potential rainfall amounts. So, any time from late Saturday night through much of Monday could produce those storms over parts of Minnesota. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be Sunday night and Monday. And, it's too early to pin down a severe weather threat, but the Days 5-6 NWS Storm Prediction Center extended convective outlook have a threat of severe storms nearby Minnesota at times.

That would also set the stage for some major cooling, at least for a day, on Tuesday.