Tuesday, November 18, 2025  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Decent Precipitation Missing to South With Little Threat Rest of Week

First Light Snow Accumulation Still Possible in Minnesota River Valley Early This Morning

A low pressure system is passing close enough to southern Minnesota (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) to develop some moderate to heavy precipitation across southern Minnesota overnight (set number of frames to 96 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). So far, there has been some sleet or snow mixed in at times in parts of eastern South Dakota and in the Rochester area (see NWS: last 72 hours of Rochester observations), but temperatures have been no colder than 33 degrees, so there hasn't been accumulation on major roads yet (see MnDOT Minnesota road reports). There still might be some slushy snow accumulation at the northern edge of the band as it pushes a bit further to the north before sunrise (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map and NWS hourly Minnesota weather round-up for latest reports). That's the area in the National Weather Service's winter weather advisory (north of Mankato to perhaps the southern Twin Cities). As noted in the advisory, some of the steady precipitation could get into the southern Twin Cities, but there will be a sharp northern edge with just sprinkles at most somewhere in the Metropolitan area. St. Cloud will have little chance for precipitation.

The low pressure system will move quickly eastward this morning, so even the middle clouds to the north of the precipitation band in central Minnesota (see College of DuPage North America shortwave infrared satellite loop) will give way to midday and afternoon sun. That will be more sun than yesterday (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest), so high temperatures will return to the lower half of the 40's, now a couple of degrees above the average.

Next Threat for Light Precipitation from St. Cloud Northward Wednesday

There will be another shot at some light precipitation late Wednesday and Wednesday night as a weaker system with less available moisture passes to our north. The best chance for steady precipitation will be in northern Minnesota (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), with a small chance that some light snow will mix in with the rain on Wednesday night. A dusting might be possible in northeastern Minnesota. In central Minnesota, only sprinkles are likely. Temperatures are likely to remain above freezing due to persistent clouds Wednesday night, so there will be little chance for frozen precipitation.

Continued Mainly Dry With Above Average Temperatures Through Weekend

Other than the sprinkle chances, expect a mainly dry week, now all the way into the weekend. Highs will generally be warmer than average, as the average high dips out of the 40's beginning tomorrow. Wednesday will be the coolest day with a high near 40, then highs near or even above 50 are possible Thursday, Saturday, and even Sunday.

Too Early for Thanksgiving Week Guess

The complicated weather pattern with a pair of storm tracks and Minnesota closer to the northern one will continue into early next week, but the forecasts get really uncertain about whether or not there will be storms strong enough to change the flow pattern and allow much colder or much warmer air into Minnesota. Some of the forecasts try to bring a significant precipitation threat into Minnesota, but there is great disagreement between the forecasts, so I don't trust any Thanksgiving week precipitation threat at this point.

Winter Hazards Awareness Week Nov 17-21

This week is Winter Hazards Awareness Week in Minnesota (also see page from NWS Duluth) and Wisconsin. Safety topics include what to do in winter storms, when it's OK to go out on lake ice, fire safety, indoor air quality, and winter driving. Other information is available on winter topics from the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 11/18/2025: Morning clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry, afternoon sun, and continued seasonably cold. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Early wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and a bit chillier during the evening, then some clouds late at night. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: light evening, SE 5 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between 15 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 11/19/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and seasonably cool. High: between 38 and 43. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy and milder with a chance for a sprinkle. Low: between 34 and 38. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH evening, becoming SW 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 11/20/2025: Morning clouds, afternoon sun, breezy, and milder. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday Night: Clearing, light winds, and colder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, 5 MPH late. Wind chill: between 18 and 23. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 11/21/2025: Sunny, light winds, and not quite as warm. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Morning wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Clearing, light winds, and colder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: light evening, SE 5-10 MPH late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 11/22/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and warmer. High: between 47 and 52. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH, shifting to NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Highs still near 50 on Sunday?? Low precipitation chances??? Uncertain during early part of Thanksgiving week???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Tuesday through Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 4 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday.

Yesterday's High: 38°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Tuesday): 36°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Tuesday): None

Next Update: Wednesday, November 19, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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