Tuesday, April 29, 2025  5:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Much Quieter Weather Ahead

Scattered Severe Storms Monday Afternoon Were Hit and Miss

The second wave of showers and thunderstorms (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) did produce scattered severe weather across central and southern Minnesota, including a tornado near Kenyon, oval shaped hail as wide as 2 to 2 3/4 inches near Beaver Creek, and straight-line wind gusts of 60 MPH in Jackson. One severe thunderstorm pushed through the St. Cloud Airport around 4 PM, producing hail between an inch and an inch and a half in diameter near Luxemburg, Clearwater, and Santiago, and producing a funnel cloud near Princeton. The top wind gust at the St. Cloud Airport was 48 MPH at 4:15 PM (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

The St. Cloud Regional Airport picked up 0.66 inch of important rainfall, 0.42 inch from the morning storms and 0.24 inch in the afternoon storm. Still, the scattered nature of those storms from southwestern to central Minnesota meant that not everyone got hit by the afternoon round. Most of the Twin Cities didn't pick up measurable rain, and my house in Sartell missed any rain as storms missed to the north (through Rice and Royalton) and to the south.

Windy, Much Cooler and Drier to Begin Tuesday

Those storms have moved into Wisconsin and Iowa overnight (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop). Much cooler and drier air has pushed eastward from the Dakotas, dropping the temperatures back into the 40's and 30's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). The main effect in St. Cloud has been the gusty northwest winds, with frequent wind gusts over 30 MPH (top overnight wind gust so far has been 38 MPH at 11:18 PM; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations).

We still have to deal with the upper-air low (see counterclockwise circulation on the mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), which is pushing through Minnesota. There are a few scattered rain showers pushing across northern Minnesota (set number of frames to 48 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop) and a sprinkle is possible through sunrise.

Lots of Sun and Diminishing Wind, But 15-20 Degrees Cooler Than Yesterday

However, clearing is working its way from North Dakota into South Dakota and northwestern Minnesota (see shortwave infrared continental US loop from College of DuPage), so we will see a much better supply of sun today. The cooler and drier air means that yesterday's late afternoon temperatures in the 70's (set time to 20Z-23Z, 3-5 PM, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) will fall back to the 50's today. The strong winds will continue at 10-20 MPH during the morning, but ease to 5-15 MPH this afternoon.

Only Some Light Wednesday Night and Thursday Showers From Today Through Weekend

The weather will be quieter from today through the weekend. There will be a storm system moving from off the British Columbia coast (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) to Minnesota by Thursday morning. However, the southern track storm near the Four Corners will keep most of the moisture shunted to our south, so there will only be a few scattered showers late Wednesday or Wednesday night with the cold front and Thursday under the cold air pocket from the upper-air low (see Days 2-3 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

60's Back on Wednesday, But 50's to Near 60 Thursday and Friday

Temperature-wise, tonight will be chilly with a low in the middle 30's. Tomorrow, we will get southwest winds ahead of the cold front, so highs will return to the 60's. The breezy conditions means elevated fire danger in areas that didn't see a lot of rain over the past few days. Thursday will be cooler with those on-and-off showers. Highs will be back in the 50's. The seasonably cool readings will continue with a Friday morning low in the 30's and an afternoon high near 60.

70-Plus Likely Weekend into Next Week

Warmer air will build into Minnesota for the weekend. Highs should return to near 70 Saturday and get into the 70's Sunday and Monday.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Tuesday 4/29/2025: Some lingering early clouds, then becoming sunny, not as windy, and much drier with merely seasonable warmth. High: between 53 and 58. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH during the morning, 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Clear, lighter winds, and cooler. Perhaps some fog. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: SE 5 MPH evening, SE 5-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 4/30/2025: Sunny in the morning, mixed sun and clouds during the afternoon, breezy, and warmer, but with low humidity. Elevated fire danger. A slight chance for a late day shower. High: between 63 and 68. Winds: S 10-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Wednesday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance for a scattered shower. Not as cool. Low: between 45 and 50. Winds: S 8-15 MPH evening, NW 8-15 MPH late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Thursday 5/1/2025: Lots of clouds with a few sunny periods. Occasional rain showers, breezy, and cooler. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the morning, 10-20 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a sprinkle. Breezy and cooler. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Friday 5/2/2025: More sunshine, less wind, and seasonably warm. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, light wind, and cool. Low: between 35 and 40. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 5/3/2025: Partly sunny and much warmer. Elevated fire danger. High: between 67 and 72. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Extended: Warmer Sunday and Monday (highs in the 70's) with increasing humidity early next week??? Uncertain chances for thunderstorms???? as early as late Sunday???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Tuesday, 7 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 5 Wednesday night through Saturday.

Yesterday's High: 73°F; Overnight Low (through 5 AM Tuesday): 41°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 5 AM Tuesday): 0.66 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 5 AM Tuesday): 0.39 inch (missed 4 PM T-storm)

Next Update: Wednesday, April 30, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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