Monday, November 17, 2025  2:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Fewer Major Temperature Swings, Still Only Light Precipitation Threats This Week

Most of my recent forecasts have been dealing with major shifts in temperature, like the one from last Friday (tying a record warm high of 68) until last night (temperatures in the lower 20's; see 14 day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). These temperature swings have been possible since we have been near the northernmost of a pair of west-to-east storm tracks (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). That has kept any significant moisture near the southern storm track, so the shift in temperatures between warm and cold here has been more extreme because the air has been very dry (note that most of northern and central Minnesota except the northwestern portion has had less than an inch of rain; light green or blue on the NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota map, when set to yesterday's date, and last 30 days time period). Instead, we've been watching much of California beginning the rainy season early (yellow, 2 inches, to red, 5 inches, and even cyan, more than 10 inches in spots when you zoom the NWS Water Prediction Service 30-day precipitation map to California).

But there isn't going to be as significant a cold front as the one that passed the St. Cloud area just after 5 AM Saturday (Janet and I were visiting Lake Francis near the Sartell Community Center so Janet could take pictures of the growing Christmas light display, since we knew it would be warmest pre-dawn temperatures for at least the next week). So, temperatures will be a lot more consistent. We will see mainly highs in the 40's, except for a shot at 50-degree high on Thursday.

The main change this week is that weather systems passing along both storm tracks will sometimes pass closer to Minnesota. Moisture will still be limited, since the two streams won't work together, so there won't be Gulf of Mexico moisture reaching this far to the north. However, there will be frequent chances for light precipitation.

Some Measurable Snow Possible Tonight in Minnesota River Valley and Southern Minnesota

That first chance will be late today into tonight. The current storm system in Utah (see counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will move eastward, reaching Iowa by tomorrow morning. There have already been some high clouds ahead of that system moving into Minnesota (see College of DuPage clean infrared satellite loop), which have allowed temperatures to climb from those low 20's evening lows back into the 30's in central and southern Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). That low pressure system will weaken as it moves into the Plains, but it will be strong enough to produce a narrow band of precipitation along its northern flank. The computer forecasts disagree a bit on the track, but the forecasts show a good chance of precipitation somewhere between the Minnesota River Valley, and possibly the Twin Cities into northern Iowa (note the chance for significant precipitation on the Day 1 NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). Within the northern portion of the heaviest precipitation, wet snow will at least mix in with the rain. What falls tonight especially will have a chance to produce a small accumulation in parts of southern Minnesota (set NWS WPC probablisitic winter precipitation guidance to 1 inch of snow at the 00 UTC Wednesday, 6 PM Tuesday, time tab). Note that there are blue probabilities, a 50-50 chance for that 1 inch accumulation, during the 24 hours ending tomorrow evening.

Some of the forecasts have some of the light rain as far north as central Minnesota (especially Hwy. 12 and southward), so I have a 10 percent chance of a sprinkle or flurry in St. Cloud. Some more shifting of the storm track is possible, but at its wettest, I don't see better than a 1 in 5 chance for precipitation here.

Another batch of seasonably cold air will follow tomorrow's system. However, on Wednesday, a weak storm near the Canadian border will move by, again pumping milder air over the top of the seasonably cold air. That system will have a small chance of wringing out some rain showers with the best chance in northern Minnesota. We will again have a 1 in 5 chance to see a few sprinkles with the best chance late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Temperatures will likely stay above freezing on Wednesday night, so there is little chance of snowfall.

By late in the week, the forecast gets really difficult. There will be a stronger storm pushing into California again by Thursday, but its progression across the southern US is very uncertain. At the same time, Minnesota will remain near the northern storm track, so there could be a chance for a stronger cold front to bring in cooler than average mid-November air, but that possibility is uncertain. So, my best guess is temperatures mostly likely remaining near or above average with only small precipitation chances over next weekend.

Winter Hazards Awareness Week Nov 17-21

This week is Winter Hazards Awareness Week in Minnesota. Safety topics include what to do in winter storms, when it's OK to go out on lake ice, fire safety, indoor air quality, and winter driving. Other information is available on winter topics from the National Weather Service and the Minnesota Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Monday 11/17/2025: Mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and continued seasonably cold. Maybe a few sprinkles. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: ESE 5-15 MPH. Early wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and not quite as cold. A slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: NE 8-15 MPH. Wind chill: between 18 and 32. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday 11/18/2025: Morning clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry, afternoon sun, and continued seasonably cold. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: E-SE 5-15 MPH. Early wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable precipitation: 10%.

Tuesday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and a bit chillier during the evening, then some clouds late at night. Low: between 26 and 32. Winds: light evening, S-SW 5-10 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between 15 and 25. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 11/19/2025: Cloudy, breezy, and seasonably cool with a slight chance for an afternoon sprinkle. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy and milder with a slightly better chance for a sprinkle. Low: between 33 and 38. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH evening, becoming SW 5 MPH late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Thursday 11/20/2025: Morning clouds, afternoon sun, breezy, and milder. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Clearing, light winds, and colder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: NW 5 MPH. Wind chill: between 18 and 23. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 11/21/2025: Sunny, light winds, and a return to seasonably cool temperatures. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: N 5-10 MPH. Morning wind chill: in the 20's. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Extended: Temperatures in the 40's over next weekend??? Low precipitation chances???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Monday, 6 Monday night and Tuesday, 7 Wednesday, 6 Wednesday night and Thursday, 5 Thursday night and Friday, 2 weekend.

Yesterday's High: 45°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Monday): 21°F
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, November 18, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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