St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Hot (Even 100 in Parts of Twin Cities) Yesterday, But Slightly Drier

After not hitting 97 degrees since August 22, 2023, St. Cloud has now managed to climb to 97 degrees two days in a row (see NWS: last 24 hours of St. Cloud observations). So, 2026 has joined 2021 and 2022 with 2 days of at least 97 degrees (scroll to the bottom of the August 2024 St. Cloud weather summary) in a single summer. There have been only 9 such days since 2006, 7 of which have occurred during the past 6 years (but none in 2024 or 2025). 

The air that produced this heat behind the front that pushed to central Minnesota yesterday (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT North America zoom-in map) was a bit drier as dew points fell yesterday afternoon to the middle 60's in some parts of central Minnesota. That was 10 degrees lower than we had on Sunday, so the amount of moisture in the air dropped by about 25%. The Twin Cities got even hotter than on Sunday (St. Paul brushed 100 degrees yesterday afternoon; set time to 3-5 PM on the NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up), but the drier dew points kept the heat indices merely a couple of degrees higher than the temperature itself. The NWS Twin Cities has summarized the extreme heat indices from Sunday on this page.

Still Hazy Due to Wildfire Smoke (But More from US Than Canada)

We had a lot of sunshine, but it was hazy from the smoke plume, which is now coming more from the wildfires in Idaho, Utah, and Oregon, rather than the ones in Ontario (see EPA fire and smoke map). That trend will continue for the next 2 days (see smoke plume forecast from firesmoke.ca), which makes the political posturing about Canada being lax in fire fighting look silly (US smoke blowing into Canada; note also that Thunder Bay, a metropolitan area larger than St. Cloud, had major smoke problems at the beginning of the northern Minnesota wildfires). However, none of the smoke is concentrated at the ground until you get into Montana and the Rockies.

Not Quite as Extreme Tuesday and Wednesday

So, we will actually be advisory and warning free today and tomorrow. Cooler air has been working its way in overnight, although the early morning temperatures are still very warm (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) because dew point has crept back up to the 70's in western and central Minnesota overnight (see UCAR hourly dew point map). Still, this moisture will ease during daytime heating through hazy skies. The leftover clouds from overnight thunderstorms in South Dakota and Montana will clear out (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), but highs will hover near 90, rather than being up in the 90's. Tomorrow, we are likely to be warmer (highs in the lower 90's with heat indices in the middle to perhaps upper 90's (note that the red paint on the NWS Heat Risk Forecast gets bigger, especially in northern Minnesota today through Thursday).

It won't be quite as warm above the ground as Sunday or Monday, so there is a small (1 in 5) shot at some brief late afternoon showers or thunderstorms.

Rain Threat Sometime Thursday and/or Thursday Night

The main chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms still appears to be Thursday, although the recent computer forecasts have some chance of the storms delaying or persisting through Thursday night or even early Friday (see Days 3-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a small, uncertain threat for severe weather (mainly damaging winds) from these storms. If the storms stay away until Thursday late afternoon and evening, the severe weather threat could increase. There is more potential for significant rainfall, especially in central and southern Minnesota (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook; computer forecasts are trending any overnight storms to be stronger in southern Minnesota than central Minnesota, but that's a guess at this point).

Could Be Another Sweltering Day If Storms Hold Until Late Afternoon

If the storms hold off until later on Thursday, there could be another sweltering day with highs pushing 90 and dew points in the upper 60's, perhaps in the lower 70's. The NWS Heat Risk Forecast still has lingering red paint in Minnesota on Thursday. My guess for St. Cloud is a high in the 80's with oppressive humidity.

Cooler Friday, Back to the 80's Weekend

Friday has the potential for cooler and considerably drier conditions with highs possibly around 80 degrees and potential lows in the 50's. At this point, both Sunday and Monday have the potential for highs in the 80's with noticeable to uncomfortable humidity.

Wake-Up Call (To Me) for Early to Middle of Next Week

Remember that forecast for cooler during the middle of next week after a stronger cold front goes by sometime Monday or Tuesday? Now the computer forecasts don't see any big push of cooler air. That's essentially my post-it note to stop trying to forecast 7-10 days in advance during the summer!