St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Annoying Visions of the Future? 

I watched the on-and-off rain during much of yesterday morning and got a distinct vision. Of course, it wasn't some new insight about how to forecast thunderstorms, figure out when we will go back to more summer-like temperatures or even where I left the car keys. Instead it was: "Jane, stop this crazy thing!" I am deluding myself that this vision makes sense, because the frequent rain doesn't seem to be getting us anywhere.

Frequent Rain Hasn't Been Enough

Another low pressure pushed through Minnesota yesterday (see counterclockwise circulation on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). However, the strongest storms kept forming on the eastern edge of the large cloud blob (mesoscale convective complex) in eastern Iowa and Wisconsin during the morning (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop) and moving to Ohio and Kentucky by early afternoon. Those storms produced a few tornadoes and a lot of straight-line wind damage, mostly from eastern Iowa and Missouri across central Illinois.

Once again, Minnesota had a bunch of weaker showers with a few thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) producing modest rainfall amounts. Rochester ended up with 0.36 inch, but Mankato picked up only 0.15 inch, and Redwood Falls had 0.06 inch. St. Cloud and Paynesville did a little better, picking up a total of 0.40 inch of rain, mostly during the morning. Sauk Centre had 0.31 inch, but Alexandria had only 0.08 inch.

So far in June, St. Cloud has picked up some measurable rainfall on 10 of the first 17 days. St. Cloud averages 10.9 days of measurable rainfall during the entire month of June (and we had above average days of measurable rainfall in March and April). However, we have really not had the kind of rainfall needed to make a major dent in our rainfall deficit. In June, St. Cloud has picked up a total of 1.85 inch, which is still short of the 2.10 inch average. Adding in the shortfall from last August through May, St. Cloud has seen 15.51 inches, still 6.09 inches short of the 21.60 inch average. So, we won't see much improvement Most of Minnesota needs more consistent, heavier rainfall to make up that shortfall (we won't see much improvement when this week's US Drought Monitor updates today).

Next Rain Chance Tomorrow, But We Will Continue to Miss Major Rainfall Into Early Next Week

The current weather pattern of frequent storms going by will continue with the next one taking shape in Alberta (see counterclockwise circulation center on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop). However, the front (see Wednesday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) separating the modestly humid air from the main region of sticky air over the central and southern Plains (see orange and red on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) won't get much close to Minnesota. So, tomorrow's potential for rainfall will be similar or less than what we've seen from the past two systems (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

There will be a chance of some isolated large hail or strong and gusty winds from tomorrow's storms. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a rating of 1 out of 5 on the severe weather potential.

There will be a stronger and slower-moving system moving through the Plains on Sunday, but the computer forecasts have now consistently shown that the bulk of the rain (see Days 4-5 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) will likely miss most of Minnesota (see Days 3-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). So, we may not see much more than a quarter inch of rain tomorrow through the weekend.

Return to Mainly Highs in the 70's; Clear Nights May Still Produce 40's

We will only see slow moderation of the recent cool temperatures. Highs will climb to around 70 degrees. Temperatures will generally be in the lower 70's tomorrow and in the middle 70's the rest of the weekend. The air will still be relatively dry, so low temperatures will dip into the 40's on any clear and calm night. There also could be some areas of fog.

Early Next Week? Probably More of the Same?

The upper-air pattern for early next week has a number of weak pressure systems in the Plains, so my forecast is very iffy. There will be an uncertain chance for showers each day, but we still won't tap the very humid air in the South Central US, so we could see some sunny periods each day as well. I won't push the high temperatures out of the 70's at this point. 

No Warning Sirens for Siren, WI Tornado (2001)

Today marks the 25th anniversary of the Siren, WI F3 tornado. (summary provided by NWS Duluth). Two people were killed and 18 were injured in that storm in western Wisconsin. There were likely that many casualties because of a power failure 20 minutes before the storm came through. Sirens did not south. The NWS NOAA weather radio signal was strengthened afterwards; this is yet another example of why that radio is a better tool than relying on sirens.

I wonder if The Odd Couple has some application for the future forecast. No! I have to stop this NOW!!!