Weather

St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Thursday, August 6, 2026 1:40 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Warmer and More Humid By Tonight, Drier Again Friday Into Weekend

We will return to warmer and temporarily more humid conditions today into tomorrow. Dew points have climbed back to the middle to upper 50's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) early this morning, so we won't see the 40's like yesterday morning (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). We will get further into the 80's for a high both today and tomorrow. By tonight, the uncomfortable dew points in the 60's will push northward from Iowa and Nebraska (see UCAR hourly dew point map).

The increasingly moist air will be in place by the time the next low pressure system, now moving southeastward through Alberta (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), pulls its cold front from Manitoba into Minnesota (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). There will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly tonight into tomorrow morning in central Minnesota. The rainfall potential will be modest (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) and there will only be a small risk of severe thunderstorms, concentrated in eastern Minnesota tomorrow afternoon.

We will have Canadian air pushing into Minnesota beginning tomorrow afternoon and remaining through the weekend. More low pressure systems will continue along the main storm track pushing from northwest to southeast across the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The drier air means I don't have a better than a 1 in 5 chance of thunderstorms over the weekend (see Days 3-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast)..

High temperatures will generally range between 77 and 87.

With continued southeast flow from Canada, there might be the possibility of smoke from the wildfires  to get into Minnesota. Right now, there isn't much smoke at the ground in Canada (see EPA fire and smoke map). The air will sink behind the cold front, so there is a small chance for concerning air quality indices, but I'm not counting on it right now. The main threat for serious air quality over the next several days is in the Arrowhead tomorrow, when the local fires could produce some problems.

Minnesota is still expected to remain near the storm track next week. If there is a flow of much more humid air from Texas and Oklahoma (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) gets into the Central Plains, there might be the potential for more significant rain (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). However, the searing heat is now expected to be a bit further to our south (see orange and red areas on the NWS Heat Risk Forecast) early next week, so widespread showers and thunderstorms could remain to our south.  

 

 

July 2026 St. Cloud Weather Summary Available

Besides the drier than average and hotter than average conditions seen in July, my July 2026 St. Cloud weather summary that St. Cloud had more 90-degree highs than any July since 2006. And, the dry conditions date back to late last summer, falling more than 8 inches short of average. 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level (high): "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"             

Thursday 8/6/2026: Mostly sunny with a few afternoon clouds. Breezy, and warmer. Extreme fire danger. High: between 82 and 87. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH early, 10-25 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%. 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, and warmer with uncomfortable humidity. A chance for showers and thunderstorms, especially late at night. Low: between 62 and 67. Winds: S 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Friday 8/7/2026: A chance for a morning shower or thunderstorm, then partly sunny during the afternoon, breezy, not as warm, and turning less humid. High: between 78 and 83. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH early, becoming NW 8-15 MPH by late morning. Chance of measurable rainfall: 30% during the morning, 10% during the afternoon.  

Confidence Level (medium): "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"     

Friday Night: Clear, drier, and a bit cooler. Perhaps some late night fog. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SW 5 MPH evening, calm late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday 8/8/2026:  Hazy sunshine, lighter winds, and very warm again. Perhaps some smoke issues. A slight chance for a late afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High: between 80 and 85. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.  

Saturday Night: Partly clear and a bit cooler. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 8/9/2026: Hazy sunshine, less windy, still very warm, but with more comfortable humidity. High: between 82 and 87. Winds: NE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.  

Confidence Level (low): "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"          

Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and seasonably cool. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: NE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Monday 8/10/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, and seasonably warm. A slight chance of a sprinkle. Maybe some smoke? High: between 78 and 83. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.  

Extended: A series of thunderstorm possibilities with uncertain temperatures through the middle of next week?? 

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Thursday, 6 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 4 Saturday night and Sunday, 2 Sunday night and Monday.   

Yesterday's High: 80°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Thursday): 61°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Thursday): None

August 6 Historic Data
Temperature Category High Low

Average Temperatures

 81°F 59°F

Record Temperatures

 98°F (2001)
 70°F (1930)
66°F (1972) 41°F (1977)

Next Update: Friday, August 7, 2026 6 AM

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Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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