Wednesday, October 22, 2025  2:00 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Late October Temperatures Today Through Friday AM, Then Weekend Warm-Up

Was That a Flake or Two Yesterday (Or Just My Dandruff)?

I think I saw white at times yesterday midday and afternoon. We had the on-and-off cold rain showers yesterday morning (only producing 0.05 inch at the St. Cloud Sky Central Airport yesterday; see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations) that pushed mainly to our east by afternoon (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but the lingering sprinkles and drizzle seemed to occasionally produce a snow flake or two, which would be St. Cloud's first flakes of the cold season. Otherwise, yesterday was another side trip into the chill, much like we had on two days last week (see NWS Twin Cities graph of St. Cloud October daily high-low). Temperatures stuck to the lower half of the 40's all day yesterday, topping out at only 45 degrees (see St. Cloud 14-day temperature graph from MesoWest). Low clouds persisted throughout the day and through the early morning hours (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) and winds gusted as high as 45 MPH from the northwest, producing frequent wind chills in the middle 30's (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). And, the moist cold made it even more penetrating than the wind chill gave credit for.

Some Sun, Less Wind Today

We will stay in the cool air mass from northwestern Canada through Friday, but there will be more sunshine developing later today since the double-barreled upper-air low has now pushed through Wisconsin into Lake Michigan (see College of DuPage North American water vapor loop). There is another finger of low clouds over parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan (see end of white on the College of DuPage shortwave IR satellite loop), so sunshine will be slow to develop, but we will see very little drizzle this morning and sunny periods during the afternoon, allowing high temperatures to climb to near 50. It will still be windy today (10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH), but not quite as blustery as yesterday.

Chilly and Frosty Next Two Nights

Skies will remain clear tonight through Friday morning and the winds will ease off late today. The air will be coming from the Manitoba lakes, where dew points are in the upper 20's (white) and lower 30's (dark blue on the UCAR hourly dew point chart), so we will have the potential for lows in the 27-32 degree range both early Thursday and Friday mornings. Tomorrow, we will have much less wind and much more sunshine, so highs will climb to lower 50's, about average for late October.

Becoming Warmer and Windier Weekend (With Some Low Clouds?)

Beyond the end of the work week, the weather pattern will be dominated by the progress of a pair of Pacific lows, one with very few clouds off the California coast and the other in the far northeastern Pacific Ocean (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider). Both of these lows will mean that our winds will turn around to the south, beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend and into next week. That means a warming trend as highs climb well into the 50's on Friday and likely break into the 60's Saturday and Sunday. How far we get into the 60's will depend on how moist we get. Some of the computer forecasts are trying to bring dew points back into the upper 40's to lower 50's by late in the weekend. We won't notice the humidity that much, but the moister forecasts may mean that low clouds cut down on our sunshine, so how high we get into the 60's will depend on how many low clouds are around. We will also see the return of stronger winds. Saturday (10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH) could be as windy as today and Sunday (15-25 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH) could have even stronger winds.

Chance (But No Guarantee) of Major Rainfall Early Next Week...

As noted yesterday, this pattern will eventually allow the northeastern Pacific low to push through the western third of the US over the weekend and get into the Northern or Central Plains by Monday. The computer forecasts still are off by a state or more in the forecast low location for Monday through Wednesday, but more of the forecasts show a low coming through Minnesota on Monday or Monday night. The persistent southeast winds will bring the high dew point air (dew points in the 60's right along the Texas and Louisiana coasts yesterday afternoon; see 4 PM Tuesday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) into the storm, so there will be the chance for substantial rainfall if the storm moves through Minnesota rather than staying in the Canadian Prairies or coming through too far to the south (see Days 6-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). This system will also bring a lot of welcome rain to the west (see Days 3-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with snow in the various mountain ranges from the Cascades to the Rockies (see Days 4-7 on the NWS Winter Weather Outlook). The timing of the rain in Minnesota looks to be more of a Monday-Tuesday possibility, but it's still too early to pin down how much and where.

....Then More Late October-Early November Reality Middle of Next Week

There will be another cooling from when the cold front comes through (more likely some time on Monday) through Thursday with highs in the 50's or perhaps in the 40's Tuesday through Thursday. And, it will be very windy on at least Monday. Despite an October average temperature that is more than 7 1/2 degrees above normal, this cooler air the rest of this work week and during a good chunk of next week has a shot to knock the final October average back to near average.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 10/22/2025: Cloudy during the morning, some sunny periods during the afternoon, not quite as windy and not quite as cold. High: between 47 and 53. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Clearing, lighter winds, and chilly. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, light NW late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Thursday 10/23/2025: Sunny during the morning, a few afternoon clouds, much lighter winds, and seasonably mild. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: NW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Thursday Night: Clear, light winds, and chilly during the evening, then partly cloudy with a bit of breeze late. Low: between 27 and 32. Winds: light evening, SE 5 MPH after midnight. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday 10/24/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and warmer. High: between 55 and 60. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Friday Night: Partly clear until after midnight, then some low clouds during the early morning hours, breezy, and milder. Low: between 43 and 48. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH, becoming SW late at night. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Saturday 10/25/2025: Perhaps a few sunny breaks mixed with clouds, breezy, and a bit warmer. A slight chance for a sprinkle. High: between 60 and 65. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and milder. A slight chance for a sprinkle. Low: between 50 and 55. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday 10/26/2025: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a few sunny breaks, blustery, and continued warm. A slight chance for a rain shower. High: between 62 and 68. Winds: SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Better chance for rain Monday and Tuesday??? Turning much cooler Tuesday through Thursday (highs in the 50's or even 40's)?? Perhaps some snowflakes Tuesday or Wednesday??

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 7 Wednesday, 8 Wednesday night and Thursday, 7 Thursday night and Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 3 Saturday night through Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 45°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Wednesday): 41°F; Top Wind Gust Last 24 Hours (through 2 AM Wednesday): 45 MPH at 6:51 PM
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): 0.05 inch; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Wednesday): TBA; Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Wednesday): 34°F (several times during day and night)

Next Update: Thursday, October 23, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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