St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

You May Not Like The Recent Weather...

Recently, my inbox is full of complaints, given the cooler weather and occasional rain of the last 3 days (see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). Yes, most of us would prefer the 3 days with high temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer seen earlier this month (April 12, 16, and 22). However, the weather needed the most in Minnesota (as well as the southern third of the country, plus nearly all of the Plains to our south; see US Drought Monitor) is significant rainfall. Our occasional rain showers since last Wednesday has only produced spotty amounts of important rain (set NWS Water Prediction Service Minnesota precipitation map to yesterday's date and last 7 days). Sartell and Rice (in dark green) got hit harder by the Wednesday afternoon thunderstorm than the St. Cloud Airport or the University, so my lawn is now the greenest I have seen since last August.

...But We Need More Water

But, we would be served better by a storm that produced steady rainfall over a wide area rather than spotty showers or thunderstorms. The storm system that began last night is doing just that (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). The main storm pushing from Utah to Colorado overnight (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) has developed showers and thunderstorms that moved from Kansas into Missouri. However, the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota have been to the north of the system's warm front (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), so there has been a steady, soaking rain pushing through overnight. There could be a lighter period of rain for a while pre-dawn into the morning rush hour, since the strong thunderstorms are moving eastward, rather than northward, but the storm itself will continue to favor the development of more widespread rain showers later this morning into midday. So, much of Minnesota will have the potential for a badly-needed half inch of rain today (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Chilly and Damp, Even Between Rain Showers

After the main low pushes east of Iowa this afternoon, the steady rain will taper to occasional light rain showers or drizzle. The northeast winds will pick up to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for the latest winds and temperatures). If we have persistent drizzle this afternoon, high temperatures will be limited to near 50 or even the upper 40's. If we have some dry periods, temperatures will climb into the lower 50's, but the clouds and wind will again make it feel rather uncomfortable.

More Sun Tomorrow On, But Cooler Than Average Temperatures Through Work Week

The current Colorado low (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) is one of several lows in a large counterclockwise circulation from western Canada into the Rockies (yes, they are playing ring around the low-sie). The latest system will push to our east by tomorrow, but strengthening, turning the western North America flow pattern to a more northwest-to-southeast direction. That will ensure that our air following the end of today's rain will be from the Prairie Provinces, so temperatures will likely spend the rest of the work week a few degrees cooler (highs in the low to perhaps middle 50's, low in the 30's) than the end of April average.

Few Widely Scattered Showers Possible Mid-Week

One reinforcing upper-air low is forecast to drift across Minnesota Wednesday and Thursday. The pocket of cold air aloft will likely allow lots of midday and afternoon clouds to develop with a few brief isolated showers possible. However, after today's storm winds down, I don't see a good chance for widespread rain all the way through the weekend (see Days 2-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).  

Temperatures Become Warmer by Weekend

By next weekend, the old storm over the East is forecast to finally drift eastward, allowing our air to come from the Canadian border instead of the northern Prairie Provinces. That should allow highs to climb back into the 60's.

Important Rain to Fall to Our South This Week 

For the Continental US, today's low stalling over the east will create the chance for a big rainfall event (see Days 2-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). That is needed the most over the Lower Mississippi Valley and the entire Gulf Coast, so this could be helpful. Unfortunately, good rainfall set-ups this time of year come with severe weather threats as well (see Days 1 and 2 on the NWS Storm Prediction Center convective outlook).