St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Missed Most of the Severe Weather...

The cold front pushed through central Minnesota yesterday afternoon (see 24-hour loop of NWS WPC Continental US surface maps), setting off a couple of different lines of showers and thunderstorms (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Even though Minnesota had mostly cloudy skies as overnight Dakota thunderstorms weakened and moved eastward (see College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop), the air was ripe for thunderstorms (midday temperatures near 70 with dew points near 60; see 1 PM Thursday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map).

...But Mostly Modest Rainfall Amounts

The resulting storms produced a few reports of hail and damaging winds, but the bulk of the severe weather developed to the south of Minnesota. While a few of the storms lasted long enough to produce some locally heavy rain (I saw ponding during the 3-4 PM storm in Sartell), each band kept moving eastward, so most areas didn't see multiple storms. That kept the rainfall totals modest (St. Cloud Airport: 0.12 inch; Brainerd: 0.19 inch; Little Falls: 0.25 inch; Minneapolis-St. Paul Int'l Airport: 0.09 inch; Rochester: 0.24 inch; Duluth: 0.27 inch; Alexandria dry with a top wind gust of 49 MPH).

Cooler Today into Sunday With Only Small Rain Chances

Behind the cold front, much cooler (temperatures falling through the 40's into the 30's) and drier air (dew points in the 30's and 20's) has pushed into central Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR menu). That air will take hold of Minnesota for the next three days. We will have high temperatures within 10 degrees of the late April average, now in the upper 50's, likely through the end of next work week. We will also be drier, but there will be a chance for a few stray sprinkles on Saturday and perhaps a rain shower either late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Those will come as a series of small low pressure systems orbit the main low to our northwest (large counterclockwise circulation from Alberta and Saskatchewan to Montana and Wyoming; see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop).

Expect Elevated Fire Danger Friday Through Weekend

However, given the lack of rainfall from yesterday's storms and the continued long-term rainfall shortage since late last summer (see US Drought Monitor), any day with strong winds will produce very high to extreme fire danger. That includes today.

Good Prospects for Widespread Significant Rainfall Sometime Between Sunday Night and Monday Night

I am a bit more optimistic about widespread rainfall from the major storm system, now to the south of Alaska (see counterclockwise circulation on the Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider), due to affect Minnesota between Sunday night and either Monday afternoon and evening (see Days 3-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The computer forecasts don't quite have the low pressure track and speed pinned down, so there is some question about when the rain starts and ends and when it will be the heaviest. And, in a thunderstorm situation (pretty high risk of severe thunderstorms to our south in the Day 3 (when it gets updated) and Days 4-5 panels of the NWS Storm Prediction Center long-range convective outlook, parts of Minnesota might get missed by the leftover thunderstorms. Still, there will be the potential for a soaking rain at least part of the time in much of the state.

After Tuesday, Lower Rainfall Chances With Near Seasonable Temperatures

After that storm goes by, Minnesota will continue to have cooler air masses than we have seen earlier this week. There will still be a parade of storms moving from the West Coast into the Plains, but the really humid air will be well to our south, so any storm system affecting Minnesota from Tuesday on would most likely create pockets of light rain. There could be enough sunshine to keep high temperatures close to average or a bit cooler (middle 50's to lower 60's). And, any clear, calm night would still have the potential for below freezing lows.