St. Cloud State University

Friday, July 4, 2008 6:00 AM
Prepared by Bob Weisman
Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Saint Cloud State University
Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department
Saint Cloud and Vicinity Forecast

Synopsis:

Hakuna Matata (No Weather Worries) Until Late Sunday

In the wet weather pattern we've seen for most of the spring, we haven't had more than 6 straight days with no rainfall since the middle of April. However, we've now had 5 straight dry days and should continue the dry weather until Sunday afternoon or evening.

High pressure is right over Minnesota on the NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map, ushering in the core of the Canadian air mass. Skies are clear, as seen on the College of DuPage North Central infrared satellite loop, and the air is dry, as seen by the dew points in the 40's on the UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop, so temperatures have dropped into the upper 40's. Yesterday morning (46 degree low) was the coolest low we've seen since May 28 (45 degree low) and we have a chance of equaling that.

Our general flow pattern shows the continued push of dry air from central Canada on the College of DuPage national 24-hour water vapor loop, setting us up for a gorgeous holiday weekend with our first shot at showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak cold front comes through. If you're headed for northwestern Minnesota, you might see a thunderstorm late night on Saturday night.

Other than that, the warming trend will get going in earnest today and continue through over the weekend as the big heat dominating the western third of the country (highs in the high 90's to low 100's in eastern Washington and Oregon on Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany) tries to work its way in.

Today, temperatures will rebound from the upper 40's to around 80. That means that morning parades will have temperatures of around 70 degrees and fireworks will have temperatures falling from the low 70's back into the 60's. Tomorrow, the southwest winds on the west side of the high will kick up, so temperatures will begin in the middle 50's and climb to between 85 and 90.

By Sunday morning, the increasing southwest flow will begin to tap the more humid air to the south of the stalled front in Oklahoma and Texas on the NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map. That means that there will be showers and thunderstorms developing in the eastern Dakotas and moving into northwest and north central Minnesota. However, I think that those storms will stay out of here. We should break out into sunshine again on Sunday with humidity starting to become uncomfortable. It appears that the weak cold front will move into Minnesota, then stall Sunday afternoon and evening. That should set the stage for late day showers and thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Some storms could be severe.

That cold front will run out of gas close to central Minnesota on Sunday night and Monday. The question is whether or not the showers and thunderstorms on the north side of the front will be in central or southern Minnesota. At this point, my best guess is that it will be a little cooler on Monday with a chance of more showers and thunderstorms late Monday and Monday night. But, that is a very shaky forecast.

The June 2008 St. Cloud weather summary shows that June was a normal month, both in temperature and surprisingly in rainfall, since the heavy rains of the first half of the month have eased. Also, this warm season is only the third of the past 20 without a 90-degree high this late in the season.

The National Weather Service has a nice year-at-a-glance graph of St. Cloud conditions on its St. Cloud climate web page.

Links:

Surface

• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
• UCAR Canadian Prairies surface chart loop
• NWS Aviation Center Minnesota map
• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
• NWS: Last 72 hours of St. Cloud Observations
• NWS Aviation Center Dakotas Map
• College of DuPage Northern Plains Map
• College of DuPage Central Plains Map
• College of DuPage Canadian Prairies surface chart
• NWS HPC Latest North American zoom-in surface map
• NWS HPC United States Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• NWS HPC North American Zoom-In Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT
• NWS HPC Northern Plains Maps for 7 PM CDT 10 PM CDT 1 AM CDT 4 AM CDT 7 AM CDT 10 AM CDT 1 PM CDT 4 PM CDT 24-Hour Loop
• Weisman's scale of Minnesota Muggy

Satellite

• College of DuPage national infrared satellite loop
• College of DuPage national 24-hour water vapor loop
• College of DuPage Canadian infrared satellite loop
• College of DuPage North Central infrared satellite loop
• College of DuPage Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour Pacific water vapor loop
• Colorado State US RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State Pacific RAMDIS 36-hour infrared satellite loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Western US Fog/Reflectivity Product
• NESDIS GOES East Nighttime low cloud loop
• Colorado State RAMDIS Tropical Atlantic Menu
• NASA GHCC Eastern US infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Eastern US Visible loop
• NASA GHCC Satellite Menu
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic infrared loop
• NASA GHCC Tropical Atlantic visible loop

Radar

• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (fancy graphics)
• NWS Chanhassen radar loop (no terrain; faster running)
• College of DuPage US radar loop
• College of DuPage North Central radar loop
• Environment Canada Prairie Provinces radar loop
• Environment Canada Ontario radar loop
• Intellicast North Central US regional radar loop

Current Watches/Warnings

• Today's Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook
• SCSU alumnus Amanda Graning's Winter Weather Page at NWS Duluth
• NWS Duluth wind chill page
• NWS Wind Chill chart
• Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers from NWS (Adobe Acrobat format)
• NWS Twin Cities Winter Weather Page
• NWS Chanhassen current watch warning map
• NWS Storm Prediction Center Current Watch/Warning Map
• Yesterday's Storm Prediction Center severe weather reports are here
• NWS Tropical Prediction Center Current Hurricane Statements
• MPCA hourly Air Quality Index
• DNR Wildfire map
• NWS Chanhassen Web Page on Hot Weather Safety
• Today's Saint Cloud pollen forecast from Pollen.com

Road Reports

• Minnesota Dept. of Transportation road reports
• Iowa Department of Transportation road reports
• North Dakota Department of Transportation road reports
• South Dakota Department of Transportation road reports
• Wisconsin Department of Transportation road reports

Climate

• Yesterday's Saint Cloud Climate Summary
• March 2008 St. Cloud weather summary
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall maps
• Minnesota State Climatology Office weekly growing season rainfall tables
• Yesterday's High Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• This Morning's Low Temperature Map from NWS/SUNY-Albany
• Daily High/Low/Precip/Snowfall by Month (1997-current)
• National Weather Service Saint Cloud Daily Weather Site (pull-down menu)
• Saint Cloud Daily Normals and Records
• Bob Weisman's Ultimate Saint Cloud Climate Page

Drought

• Minnesota Drought Situation Report from MN State Climatology Office (October 11)
• St. Cloud Growing Season Rainfall and Departure from normal (at the bottom of this forecast each day)
• National Drought Mitigation Center's Drought Monitor (updated on Thursdays)
• Minnesota Weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report from USDA NASS (updated on Mondays)
• DNR Waters Streamflow Report (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Map (updated on Mondays)
• State Climatology Office Weekly Rainfall Table (updated on Mondays)
• More Drought Links (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• St. Cloud's Daily High/Low/Precip by Month (from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group)
• DNR Forestry/Fire Conditions page
• Minnesota DNR Waters lawn watering tips

Forecast:

Friday: Sunny to partly cloudy and seasonably warm. High: between 78 and 82. Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Friday Night: Clear and not quite as cool. Low: between 55 and 60. Winds: SE 4-8 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday: Sunny to partly cloudy, windy, very warm, and becoming noticeably humid. High: between 85 and 90. Winds: S 10-25 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 0%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, breezy, very warm, and more humid with a slight chance of a late night thunderstorm. Low: between 65 and 70. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Sunday: A slight chance of a morning shower or thunderstorm, then partly sunny, windy, very warm, and sticky with a chance of scattered late day showers and thunderstorms. Some late day storms could be severe. High: between 85 and 90. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20% in the morning, 40% in the afternoon.

End of "Reasonable" Forecast Certainty

Sunday Night: A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low: between 62 and 67. Winds: SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to N late. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40%.

Monday: Partly cloudy and not quite as hot, but still humid with a chance of a late day shower or thunderstorm. High: between 82 and 86. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

For Entertainment Purposes Only. Your Weather May (and Probably Will) Vary

Extended: Still above normal temperatures through much of next week. A chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday?

Forecast Confidence (10 - "Know what gas will cost next week, Bob?"; 0 - "Been a victim of road rage lately, Bob?"): 9 Friday through Saturday, 7 Saturday night, 6 Sunday, 5 Sunday night, 4 Monday, 2 Monday night and Tuesday.

Yesterday's High: 74°F; Overnight Low (through 6 AM): 49°F
24-Hour Rainfall: None (Airport through 5 AM); None (SCSU through 5 AM)
Growing Season Rainfall (April 1-current): 11.55 inches (Airport); Normal Rainfall: 9.94 inches
Normal Temperatures for July 3 - High: 81°F; Low: 57°F
Next Update: Monday 6:00 AM or as needed.
Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

Are you interested in studying meteorology? If so, go to the Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department temporary home page.

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