St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Morning Storms Cause Widespread Wind Damage....

Yesterday provided further evidence that long-range forecasts of intense heat are uncertain, especially along the northern edge of the heat, mainly because the late night-morning thunderstorms are so difficult to predict.

...Likely Was a Derecho

The intense thunderstorm complex that developed in South Dakota during the early morning hours got stronger as it moved into central and northern Minnesota (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop). Those storms produced a large number of wind damage reports (likely a derecho) from sunrise through early afternoon (see blue dots on the NWS Minnesota local storm reports map) as well as some large hail. The wind damage extended from southern South Dakota before dawn into Upper Michigan during the afternoon.

These types of storms often occur overnight or even during the morning because of the set up of really steamy air to the south and slightly cooler and drier air to the north. The hot air usually can't produce thunderstorms due to very warm air aloft, so that ripe air gets pulled to the north of a warm front (see yesterday's 4 PM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). The flow actually gets stronger overnight, since the ground cools a bit, so the flow of the warm air over the top of the warm front is strongest during the early morning hours, so these storms can peak in the early morning hours. Yesterday's storm continued to intensify during the morning hours, since air with dew points in the middle to upper 70's (see Monday 7 AM CDT NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) is easily unstable enough to support strong thunderstorms.

Again, I have to note that the strong flow into that thunderstorm complex was not well defined because of the large number of upper-air stations not launching balloons yesterday morning west of Minnesota through the Rockies (compare number of blue wind barbs in left-hand figure from 7 AM to the right-hand figure from 7 PM; maps courtesy of NWS Storm Prediction Center)

By the way, derechos are relatively rare, but much of Minnesota lies along a high frequency of derechos that extends from eastern South Dakota and central Minnesota to Ohio and West Virginia, including last year's derecho that struck Bemidji.

...Whose Leftover Clouds Kept Temperatures Mostly Out of 90's

The effect of this storm complex on central and southern Minnesota was the persistent mid-level clouds that hung around most of the day (set number of frames to 200 on the College of DuPage north central US visible, red, satellite loop). Those clouds only allowed afternoon temperatures to climb to the upper 80's with only a few lower 90's (set time to 21Z, 4 PM CDT, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Because the dew points were in the upper 70's (with even a few 80's), the heat indices still climbed well into the 100's (set time to 3-5 PM on the NWS hourly Minnesota weather round-up), so the excessive heat warning was justified, even though temperatures didn't make it into the middle or even upper 90's forecast earlier in the week.

More Storms May Brush St. Cloud, Probably Twin Cities, Early This AM

Last night, another round of showers and thunderstorms developed along the Dakotas-Minnesota border (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). Those storms moved into central Minnesota to the north of St. Cloud (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop). Those storms produced some large hail in Glenwood and West Union with some wind damage in Alexandria. More storms headed this way from South Dakota early this morning. Those storms developed along the cold front being pulled by a low along the Manitoba-Saskatchewan border (see College of DuPage North American mid-level water vapor satellite loop).

Better Chance for 90's Highs, But Not Nearly as Humid Today

Behind that front, there are significantly lower dew points moving from South Dakota into western Minnesota (see UCAR hourly dew point map) with dew points in the 50's in the eastern Dakotas. Those drier dew points are working their way into western Minnesota (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) behind the last of the thunderstorms. So, it won't be nearly as humid as yesterday. We also will have a better chance for sunshine today than yesterday. Given the southwest winds on the southern flank of the main low, high temperatures will have a better shot of climbing into the 90's in central, south central, and southwestern Minnesota than they did yesterday.

Still Oppressive South and East of St. Cloud

The lower dew points will generally keep the heat indices in the upper 80's to lower 90's north and west of the Twin Cities. The National Weather Service has limited its heat advisory (orange on the NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map) to the south and east of St. Cloud through the Twin Cities. Only Rochester and southeastern Minnesota has an excessive heat warning (red) for today. That's where the extreme dew points won't be cleared out.

The thunderstorm complex this morning will again hold its strength and redevelop mainly from northeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, so that's where the NWS Storm Prediction Center forecasters have the best chance for severe weather today into this evening.

More Storms Develop Late Tonight With Both an Early Morning and Afternoon Storm Threat Tomorrow

There will continue to be a parade of weaker lows moving from the Pacific Northwest near the US-Canadian border to the Great Lakes. Tonight, the next low will likely drag the sultry air from Iowa southward over our hot, but drier air. The category 1 area of severe weather risk from central Minnesota to Iowa mainly involves the chance for these late night thunderstorms.

The best guess for tomorrow's thunderstorm activity is that there will be a good chance of both early morning and middle and late afternoon thunderstorms, with a category 2 (of 5) risk for all forms of severe weather. The storms are more likely to move far enough to our east to get out of our area by Thursday's early morning hours. That likely means we will have much less sun than today, so high temperatures will be limited to the lower 80's, even cooler if we remain cloudy all day. Dew points will get back to the uncomfortable 60's, but I don't see a return to the stifling dew points of yesterday during the forecast period.

Remaining Warm (Not as Hot as Today?) and Humid (Not Like Yesterday) With Daily Thunderstorm Chances

Beyond tomorrow, I am not nearly as certain of the daily thunderstorm threat because of the parade of weak storm systems that are being forecast. At this point, I lean towards a better chance of thunderstorms Thursday night, because we have a shot at getting into more humid air during the day on Thursday. But, I have at least a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. On Thursday, we might have a shot at 90 degrees if the Wednesday night thunderstorms are far enough away to allow a decent sun supply.

There are clues that Canadian air will move into Minnesota after a stronger cold front comes through on Saturday. That could allow dew points to fall back into the 50's and allow a better chance for drier weather Sunday and Monday. Still, that forecast is iffy. If we get more Canadian air, we may have to worry about smoke from the Northern Prairie Province fires (see EPA fire and smoke map). Any sunshine we get over the next few days will likely be dimmed by middle atmosphere smoke from the large central Rockies fires, including Utah and Colorado.

So, I would mainly say that the weather from Friday on will have a good shot at highs in the 80's and uncomfortable humidity with an uncertain chance for thunderstorms. So, we'll still have to keep an eye on the sky for 250th US Independence Day activities.

June 2026 Will Finish Warmer Than Average Despite Recent Cool Spell

The warmer Saturday and Sunday weather has pushed the June average St. Cloud temperature back to more than a degree above average. It's still above normal because 10 of the first 12 June days had highs in the 80's. Our lone 90-degree high so far this season was set on May 27. That will go up more. 

The St. Cloud June rainfall is up to 3.62 inches, which is merely near average for June (3.75 inches). I still suspect there was something wrong with the rainfall yesterday, since the airport reported no rainfall from the morning storms. But, this won't provide that much relief from the 6-inch plus rainfall deficit from last August through May.