Monday, February 23, 2026  2:45 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Get Ready to Use Your Entire Cold Season Wardrobe

Got Some Long Distance Weather Complaining About the East Coast Storm

I spent yesterday morning talking to the part of my family living in New York City, given the massive storm now moving up the coast (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop). This storm will have a much larger impact than the typical East Coast storm, because the track of the storm will put the heaviest snow along the coast from Maryland to New England (New York City usually sees a changeover to rain if the storm is closer to the coast). As of midnight, there were 8 inches in New York City, headed for between one and two feet of snow. And, my relatives are panicked because there's no place to easily push the snow in a congested area. New York City and Washington have trouble dealing with even a 2 inch snowfall (similar problems after the Halloween blizzard of 1991 in Minneapolis and St. Paul). And that doesn't count the coastal flooding that will hit in the middle of the storm. Boston experienced a couple of storms like that when I was there in the late 1970's and early 1980's. Cleaning up flooding with a large snowpack and temperatures are below freezing is really difficult. And, the heavy snow and strong winds will down a lot of power lines. 

This will be another high impact event, like the rain storms that hit California in December, the massive snow and ice storm that hit the south in January, and the Carolina snow storm in late January.

Meanwhile, Weekend Cool Down Will Last Through Today

Minnesota had its cold spell over the weekend with highs back in the teens and lows in the plus single digits (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud observations from MesoWest). We are beginning this morning with clear skies (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), so temperatures could dip below zero by morning (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) with some spotty wind chills in the minus teens or even -20. We will have one more day with a high in the teens. 

Faster Temperature Swings This Upcoming Week

While we have large storm systems along both coasts (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop), the west to east flow will get going again this week. That will bring a series of warm and cool air masses through Minnesota during the work week. So, we will have a roller coaster of temperatures alternating between colder than average (highs in the teens or lower 20's today and Wednesday), and milder than average with highs potentially in the 30's on Thursday and maybe 40 by Friday. The snow to our south could keep us a bit cooler, since the snow there and in Iowa (from last Friday's storm) has to melt.

Only Small Snow Chances Besides Far Northeastern Minnesota This Work Week

There will still be a southern storm track, so major precipitation will be limited to the West (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), and develop from Tennessee to the East Coast late this week (see Days 3-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). The only precipitation threat around Minnesota will be when a low pressure system goes through northern Minnesota tomorrow (just what Hovland, within the NWS winter storm warning, needed). This will create a narrow band of accumulating snow, similar to the one that hit the Minnesota River Valley and the southern Twin Cities last week, although not as intense (set tab to 18 UTC, noon CST, Tues on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). Because of the lack of moisture, there isn't likely to be much snowfall south of the storm track, so I only have a 1 in 5 chance for some flurries tonight and tomorrow.

There are signs of another storm system, that will track to our south Wednesday night into Thursday. The best chance for another narrow band of accumulating snow would be in southern Minnesota. The computer forecasts disagree on how much snow potential there would be; therefore, only the lightest category of precipitation is shown on Days 3-5 of the  NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). However, the forecasts have trended weaker with the storm over the past day, so whatever area has a chance for snow will see the chance dwindle if the trend continues. For now, I do have a 1 in 3 chance for snow on Wednesday night, but I won't even put a light accumulation amount in the forecast, given the chance for little or no snow. 

Most Persistently Cold Weather To Begin March?

After Friday, the steering winds are going to become more northwest-to-southeast. During that time, the coldest of the cold air off the central Arctic Coast of Canada (see white on the Alicia Bentley North America 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map) will move towards Hudson Bay and a couple of other cold air masses will surge into North America.

The computer forecasts all show the colder weather pattern from this weekend into next week, but they can't agree on where the coldest of the cold air goes in early March. Still, I would get out and enjoy the mild Thursday and Friday weather since that will be followed by a fairly long break without those temperatures. 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

Monday 2/23/2026: Sunshine through high clouds, lighter winds, but a shade milder. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 0%.

Monday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps a flurry or light snow late. Not quite as cold. Low: between 10 and 15 early, rising into the 20's by morning. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH, turning to SW late. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Tuesday 2/24/2026: A cloudy start with perhaps a flurry, then becoming a mix of clouds and sun midday and afternoon, blustery, and back to seasonable cold. High: between 27 and 33. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH through mid-morning, becoming NW 20-35 MPH with higher gusts midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, blustery through midnight, and colder. Maybe a stray flurry. Low: between 3 and 10. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH into the early morning hours, 8-15 MPH towards morning. Wind chill: between -15 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 2/25/2026: A sunny start, then thickening high and middle clouds, lighter winds, and colder. High: between 17 and 22. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH during the morning, S 5 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%. 

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or flurries. Not as cold. Temperatures holding in the upper teens or rising to near 20. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Thursday 2/26/2026: Perhaps an early flurry, then becoming partly sunny and milder. High: between 38 and 42. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy and milder. Low: between 23 and 28. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 2/27/2026: Sunshine mixed with high clouds and milder. High: between 42 and 47. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH early during the morning, W-NW 10-20 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Alternating between seasonable cold and colder than average temperatures next weekend through much of next week??? 

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Monday, 6 Monday night and Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night, 4 Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night, 3 Thursday through Friday. 

Yesterday's Daytime High: 13°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Monday): 5°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, February 24, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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