Wednesday, February 4, 2026  1:15 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Most of February's First Week on the Mild Side

The last of the cold air is now in Florida (see departure from average on the upper left panel from Penn State ewall), producing one more morning of near freezing lows (a last day of frost advisories in central Florida). Otherwise, temperatures are milder in the East (see 24-hour temperature change from Penn State ewall).

A Day of Colder Weather in Minnesota, But Warm-up Begins This Afternoon

Yesterday, Minnesota was on the colder side from the previous 2 days with high temperatures in the teens (see 14-day St. Cloud temperature graph from MesoWest). Still, any temperature above 10 is an improvement over late January. And, there is much warmer air just to our west (yesterday's 3 PM temperatures in the 40's and 50's in the western and central Dakotas). All we need is a small shift in the northwest-to-southeast flow (see College of DuPage North America mid-tropospheric water vapor loop) to allow air from the Canadian Rockies foothills in Alberta to get into Minnesota. So, I'm planning on getting the salt washed off my car on Thursday.

Today, we will rebound from temperatures near zero (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map) this morning to highs in the near average middle 20's.

The peak of this warm-up will be tomorrow and tomorrow night. After a low tonight in the lower teens, temperatures will climb well into the 30's tomorrow and likely remain in the 30's through at least midnight on Thursday night.

Light Snow Possible in NE Minnesota

The milder air will move in over the top of the leftover cold air, so we will have a fair number of clouds (see College of DuPage North America shortwave infrared satellite loop) with a small chance of a few flurries (chance of even an inch limited to northeastern Minnesota; set time to 00 UTC Fri, 6 PM Thurs CST, on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance). 

Back to Average Temperatures Friday and Saturday

The next wave of colder air will push in for Friday and Saturday. After an early high above freezing, temperatures will hold in the 20's during Friday's daylight hours. Friday night's low will creep towards zero and Saturday's high will be around 20.

More Thawing Sunday and Especially Monday

But, the next wave of milder air will move in for Sunday and Monday. Highs will be back near 30 on Sunday and will be at least in the 30's, if not the 40's, on Monday. We will continue to alternate between near average temperatures and above average temperatures through early next week. 

You can find the January 2026 St. Cloud weather summary here.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Wednesday 2/4/2026: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a morning flurry. Some sunny periods possible during the afternoon. Back to seasonably cold temperatures. High: between 22 and 27. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%. 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and milder. Maybe a snow flurry. Low: between 15 and 20. Winds: SW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Thursday 2/5/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, a bit of a breeze, and even milder. High: between 33 and 39. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head"

Thursday Night: Cloudy, windy, and still mild. Perhaps a flurry or a sprinkle. Temperatures holding in the 30's during the evening, then falling to between 25 and 30 during the early morning. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday 2/6/2026: Early clouds, then mixed clouds and sun, breezy, and a bit colder. Temperatures holding in the 20's. Winds: NW 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Friday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and colder. Low: between 0 and +5. Winds: NE 5 MPH evening, SE 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Saturday 2/7/2026: Sunshine through high clouds, breezy, and seasonably cold. High: between 17 and 22. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: NE 5 MPH evening, SE 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 2/8/2026: Sunshine through high clouds and milder. High: between 28 and 33. Winds: SE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Extended: Average to milder than average temperatures through early next week?? Perhaps a mid-week chance for precipitation???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Wednesday and Wednesday night, 7 Thursday, 4 Thursday night through Saturday, 3 Saturday night and Sunday. 

Yesterday's High: 15°F; Overnight Low (through 1 AM Wednesday): 1°F

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Wednesday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 1 AM Wednesday): None

Next Update: Thursday, February 5, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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