Monday, March 2, 2026  3:20 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

March Coming In With a Heater on Overdrive

Back to 'Don't Dress for Yesterday's Weather'

After Friday's run at 50 degrees, we had a much cooler weekend as temperatures never got out of the teens during the daylight hours of Saturday and returned to the 20's yesterday (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). And overnight temperatures have been much milder with temperatures well up in the teens (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). So, the first full week of March will be dominated by much warmer than average temperatures (which should be highs near freezing).

Above Freezing Today, Meeting or Exceeding 50 Tuesday Through Thursday

Today's highs will run from the middle 30's to near 40 degrees, bringing an end to the snow cover leftover from Saturday's snow band, which missed St. Cloud to the south (set time period to 48 hours on the NWS Twin Cities local snow reports map).

Beginning tomorrow, highs will likely climb to near or above 50 degrees, depending on how many low clouds are leftover from the ground moisture in Missouri and Iowa from the overnight shower and thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central radar loop). That moisture will likely push our dew points to near freezing and create the possibility of some morning fog. With light winds expected until Thursday, we could have some trouble breaking out of the low clouds, which would tend to tamp down high temperatures a bit.

At this point, I have highs near 50 tomorrow and well into the 50's Wednesday and Thursday. That will likely be short of record warm highs, since we have reached the 60's and even brush 70 during the past 25 years.

Friday Chance for AM Showers and Thunderstorms? 

At the end of the week, the low pressure system in the eastern Pacific (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor satellite loop) will move through the Rockies and into the Plains. The area along the boundary between the springlike air and seasonably cold air will moisten up enough to create precipitation. There will be showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector, which will set up somewhere across Iowa, southern and central Minnesota. This far in advance, the area of showers is iffy, but it appears that St. Cloud will have a shot at late Thursday night and Friday morning showers and thunderstorms. There is a chance of significant precipitation (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Uncertain Chance for Snow Showers Mixed with Rain Friday Night or Saturday??

Later in the system's development, there will be a band of snow along the Minnesota-Canadian border that will have a shot at blossoming to the south into more of Minnesota. The best chance for this will be late Friday night and perhaps into Saturday. At this point, the chance for accumulation of snow mixing with rain is small and mostly limited to northern Minnesota (see Day 5 of the NWS WPC Days 4-7 winter weather outlook). Central Minnesota might see some snow showers mixed with rain if the precipitation gets this far south.

Average to Above Average Temperatures Into Next Week, But Uncertain Timing

This storm will knock temperatures out of the 50's Friday and perhaps keep temperatures closer to average on Saturday. Beyond Saturday, St. Cloud will remain near the contrast between seasonably cold air and much milder air. So, we will have uncertain temperatures swings between near average temperatures and much warmer than average temperatures into early next week with uncertain shots for significant precipitation. 

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

Monday 3/2/2026: Partly sunny, breezy, and back to milder temperatures. High: between 35 and 40. Winds: S 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Partly clear with perhaps some fog and much milder. Low: between 28 and 33. Winds: S 5-10 MPH evening, 5 MPH early morning. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 3/3/2026: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a rain shower. Still mild. High: between 46 and 52 (record warm high: 59 in 1905). Winds: SW 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Tuesday Night: Partly clear with areas of dense fog possible. Even milder. Low: between 30 and 35. Winds: SW 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday 3/4/2026: Some early fog, then a mixture of clouds and sun, and quite mild. High: between 50 and 55. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Wednesday Night: Partly clear and continued mild and moist. Perhaps some fog. Low: between 32 and 37. (record warm low: 39 in 1983) Winds: SE 5 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Thursday 3/5/2026: Mixed clouds and sun, more of a breeze, and continued very mild. High: between 52 and 57. Winds: ESE 8-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Thursday Night: Maybe some evening fog, then a chance for a late night rain shower or thunderstorm. Breezier and still very mild. Low: between 35 and 40. (record warm low: 41 in 2000) Winds: ESE 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 10% evening, 30% late at night.

Friday 3/6/2026: A chance for early showers and thunderstorms, then mostly cloudy and not quite as warm. Perhaps some drizzle. High: between 40 and 45. Winds: SE 8-15 MPH, becoming N 5-10 MPH towards evening. Chance of measurable rainfall: 40% morning, 20% afternoon.  

Extended: Uncertain chance for rain or snow Friday night into Saturday??? A bit cooler Saturday??? Continued milder than average until early next week??? Uncertain precipitation chances beyond???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Monday, 7 Monday night and Tuesday, 4 Tuesday night, 5 Wednesday, 4 Wednesday night, 5 Thursday, 3 Thursday night and Friday, 1 Friday night and Saturday.  

Yesterday's High: 26°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM Monday): 19°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Monday): None

Next Update: Tuesday, March 3, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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