St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Showers and thunderstorms were around northern Minnesota for a good chunk of yesterday (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but more widespread evening showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Dakotas has finally allowed a decent number of storms into central and southern Minnesota during the early morning hours. These storms are actually part of a large thunderstorm complex that stretches into Nebraska (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop). There were few reports of severe weather (with severe weather unlikely in Minnesota today), but the heavy rain potential is the most important part (note the large spread of brown when comparing the July 28 US Drought Monitor with the July 14 version). The main low, pushing through South Dakota (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), will continue to trigger storms today. This morning, both before and after sunrise, will be our best chance for central Minnesota rainfall, but the heaviest rainfall will be a bit to our south. The National Weather Service has a flood watch in effect until noon today from Morris to Belgrade south and eastward through the Minnesota River Valley to Jackson, Owatonna, and Albert Lea. New storms are likely to develop this afternoon, but most of those will be in southern Minnnesota (see Day 1 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast). 

Drier by This Afternoon and Cooler Weekend

Cooler, and more importantly drier air will push into northern and central Minnesota by this afternoon. There still could be a few scattered afternoon or early evening showers in northern and central Minnesota. After that, dew points will fall back to the 50's or perhaps even the 40's. 

All of the clouds will likely break the heat wave today (6 straight days with a high of 90 or above; see 7-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest) as high temperatures will struggle to get to 80 degrees. Over the weekend, highs will likely be in the 80's with lows possibly in the 50's for the first time since a week ago Thursday (see 14-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest).

The sunshine will likely be dimmed a bit by suspended smoke (see EPA fire and smoke map) 

Next Chance for Showers Monday Night and Tuesday?

The storm off the British Columbia coast (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will push into south central Canada by Tuesday of next week. That will initially allow some hot air from the Northern Rockies to approach Minnesota (see Sat-Mon on the NWS Heat Risk forecast). At this point, it doesn't appear that we will get as hot as we did earlier this week, but the dew points will likely climb back into the uncomfortable 60's on Monday. The next best chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be Monday night perhaps into Tuesday (see Days 4-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) .

Cooler air will move in after the Monday front. What isn't certain is whether there will be more storms moving near the front, giving a chance of showers and thunderstorms perhaps to our south, but maybe pushing into parts of Minnesota.

July Will Be Top Ten Hot, But Could Drop Out of Driest 10 August-July

Through yesterday's temperatures, St. Cloud's July average temperature is up to 75.4 degrees, 5.1 degrees above the July average. That would rank as the 8th warmest July in St. Cloud records and the warmest July since 2012. Today will probably bring that temperature down a little, but the very warm low is likely to keep us in the top 10.

We have the opportunity to build the rainfall higher than the current 2.15 inch July total (1.45 inch below the July average) and get away from the 10th driest August through July (19.43 inches, 9.06 inches below average).