St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

First Wave of Showers Overnight

We will have a few chances at badly needed rain this week. Although the heavy rainfall from the Southern US (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop) won't get here, a series of low pressure systems will move from the northeastern Pacific (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) across the northern tier of states this week.

The first system is pushing through Minnesota early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms pushed into Minnesota overnight (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop), but the rainfall amounts have been light (through 6 AM: St. Cloud State 0.15 inch). This low will push out of Minnesota later this morning, so we have a good chance for some sunshine during the daylight hours. 

Tonight into Tomorrow: More Widespread Thunderstorms and Heavier Rain Possible

However, the next storm system moving into British Columbia (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will push into Minnesota tomorrow. While our temperatures will remain cool, warmer air will get as close to Minnesota as central Iowa as the storm passes, so this storm will have a larger temperature difference to work with. That should lead to more persistent showers and thunderstorms late tonight into tomorrow morning with a few lingering showers during the afternoon. That will produce the potential for significant rainfall (see Days 1-2 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) for those storms. These storms have a small chance of producing severe weather, mostly in Montana and the Dakotas late tonight. The redevelopment of storms tomorrow afternoon will have a greater threat of severe weather, but Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and Illinois have the best chance of an outbreak. Southern Minnesota may catch of piece of that afternoon development (threat rated category 2 of 5), but central Minnesota is more likely to see just scattered showers. 

Uncertain Shower Chances Weekend into Next Week

After tomorrow, the shower chance will reduce for the rest of the work week. There will be more storm systems pushing from the northern Pacific to the US-Canadian border near Minnesota, with the best chance from the weekend into early next week. However, the computer forecasts wildly disagree about the track and timing of these systems, so Minnesota is not guaranteed to have these storm chances.

Getting Cooler Again Today Through Friday

The stalled low near Hudson Bay (see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will steer cooler air into Minnesota, so I am not sure when we will again see the near 80 highs in central and southern Minnesota from yesterday afternoon (set time to 19Z-21Z, 2-4 PM CDT yesterday, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map). Instead, we will have highs in the 70's today, highs only in the upper half of the 60's to near 70 tomorrow and Thursday, and a return to highs in the tomorrow and into the weekend. On a clear, calm night (Thursday and Friday nights?), low temperatures will dip well down into the 40's.

There are signs of temperature moderation over the weekend, but that will mostly likely produce 70's. Note that the long-range predictions of much warmer temperatures by mid-month are already late.