St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Storms Still Lining Up to Pass Minnesota Through Tomorrow Evening

Today and tomorrow, we will have a pair of low pressure systems move along the southern flank of the stalled low near the Manitoba-Ontario border. Today's system is moving from Montana into the Dakotas and tomorrow's system is the one passing the Pacific Northwest (see counterclockwise circulation centers on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop).

Few Morning Showers in Central Minnesota

Today, we will have the early morning showers and thunderstorms (see College of DuPage north central US radar loop) push mainly through southern Minnesota with a few in central Minnesota.

Good Chance for Afternoon, Early Evening Storms in Southern Minnesota...

However, more storms will develop this afternoon along the southern edge of the morning clouds (see College of DuPage north central US clean infrared satellite loop). During the late day and evening hours, the strongest of those storms will be in southern Minnesota through Nebraska, southeastern South Dakota, and Iowa. Those areas will have the best chance for severe weather (threat category 3 of 5) with large hail and straight-line damaging winds the main threat. There will continue to be a threat of enough rain to produce flooding in southern Minnesota and Iowa (see Day 2 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook), especially in the wake of the heavy rain from the past two days (see neon green flood warnings and dark green flood watches on the NWS Twin Cities watch-warning map).

Central MN: Scattered Late Day Thunderstorms, Better Chance Overnight

In central Minnesota, there will be the chance for some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but a better chance for showers and thunderstorms from the western low pushing across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. These storms will carry some threat of straight-line wind damage, but only a category 1 of 5 risk before tomorrow at daybreak.

We will have more clouds today as the leftover clouds from the storms to our south and west will hang around for at least this morning. That will keep highs in the lower 80's.

Still Good Chance for Both Morning and Afternoon Storms Tomorrow...Maybe Winding Down by Late Afternoon?

The Fourth of July will have the chance of showers and thunderstorms, both during the morning and again during the afternoon into the evening. The latest information favors the second round of storms in the afternoon, rather than the evening, so there will be a chance for fireworks to go on, if people are urged not to show up until later in the afternoon. The severe weather threat is lower due to the persistent cloud cover expected, but lightning and heavy downpours (see Day 3 of the NWS WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) could still be a problem.

There will be persistent clouds outside of the storm threats tomorrow, so highs will likely be held in the 70's. Still, the humidity will be uncomfortable. 

Sunday the Better Weekend Day By Far

The second half of the weekend still looks better than the first half. Behind the Pacific Northwest storm, our winds will turn to the northeast, bringing either air from Ontario into Minnesota or rerouting air from the eastern slopes of Montana to Minnesota. That should allow dew points to fall back into the merely noticeable upper 50's with some fog possible on a clear, calm night (more likely early Monday than early Sunday). And, we should have much more sun on Sunday than on Saturday with highs back to around 80.

Perhaps Some Low-Level Smoke?

If the air flow comes from the area of Quebec along Hudson Bay, northern Manitoba, or southeastern Nunavut, there would be a chance that wildfire smoke could push into Minnesota (see EPA fire and smoke map) on Sunday or Monday.

Return of Highs in 80's, Uncertain Storm Chances Next Week

The most oppressive air is expected to get shoved to the Tennessee River Valley by early next week (see orange and red areas on the NWS Heat Risk forecast move further south and not as severe by Day 4; Monday and Tuesday). Minnesota will still be near the parade of storm systems moving from the eastern Pacific to the Great Lakes, so the humidity will return and there will be storm chances, which are too vague to pick days and time right now (computer forecasts like mid-week, but we'll see). Initially, the drier air at the ground will allow highs back into the 80's, but clouds from nearby storms will make heating more difficult as the week goes on (see Days 3-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast)

Rain Is Still Badly Needed...

Despite the rain concentrating in southern Minnesota over the past few days (set NWS Water Prediction Center Minnesota rainfall map to yesterday's date, and last 7 days), much of Minnesota still needs rain quite badly (see updated National US Drought Monitor, including rain through Tuesday), so any rainfall the next two days will be important.

With Only Pockets of Minnesota Getting June Help

The June rainfall story was insufficient drought relief (set NWS Water Prediction Center Minnesota rainfall map to the month of June and set table to departure from average). While parts of central Minnesota from Wheaton to Hutchinson had above average rainfall (green and blue), large portions of Minnesota, including northern and even central Minnesota between Little Falls and the Twin Cities were near or below average (yellow). The St. Cloud Airport was near average (3.67 inches, average June rainfall 3.75 inches). I'll have more about June as I work on the monthly summary, including a weird temperature trend with the first 12 days being like mid-July and the following two weeks having temperatures resembling mid-September.