Sunday, December 14, 2025  2:10 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

Rising Tide Lifts All Thermometers, Beginning Tonight

Temperatures Bottoming Out Yesterday and This Morning

Temperatures have bottomed out in Minnesota during the past 24 hours (see NWS: last 72 hours of St. Cloud observations). St. Cloud's temperature hit zero at 5 PM Friday, dropped as low as -12 by Saturday morning (with a few -20's in northern Minnesota; see 9 AM Saturday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), and only brushed zero again Saturday afternoon. The winds gusted as high as 29 MPH yesterday afternoon, so there have been wind chills in the lower half of the -20's at times yesterday morning and overnight (see NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up). Overnight, temperatures have fallen back into the minus teens (see 30-day graph of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). There have been a few pockets of -20's through early morning (see latest UCAR Minnesota map). With the high pressure area over the Dakotas and Nebraska, there has been a persistent northwest winds, so St. Cloud may not get down into the minus 20's by daybreak. However, wind chills will continue in the -20's and -30's, so the NWS cold weather advisory continues until 10 AM this morning. (note that the light blue extends from Montana to the Carolinas, so expect plenty of media and football announcer complaints about the cold elsewhere)

You can use the following links to track the cold:

• UCAR Minnesota map for temperatures, visibility, and snowfall
• NWS Minnesota hourly weather round-up for temperatures, wind speeds, and wind chill
• NWS Minnesota watch-warning map for cold weather advisory statements
• NWS cold weather safety page, including indoor and outdoor steps

Warming Trend Begins Today..

However, the coldest of the cold air is located to the northeast of the high pressure area, so the back end of it was over Minnesota at 6 PM last night (see dark blue areas on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map). Note that the coldest will move over the Great Lakes, then into the Ohio River Valley and Quebec by later this morning (use right arrow to advance). And for the rest of the period into the new week, that dark blue remains in northern and central Canada for the most part. That's because our steering winds (still from northwest-to-southeast in western Canada; see College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop) will shift to a more west-to-east pattern for much of next week. Our air source will become the eastern slopes of the Canadian or northern US Rockies, so much milder air will begin to move in.

...But We Won't Notice It Until Tomorrow

It takes a while for the milder air to push the more dense leftover cold air out of the way, so we will see modest warming today. Temperatures will climb to about zero this afternoon and we will see some high and middle clouds, caused by the milder air moving over the top of the cold air this afternoon. The southeast winds will pick up this afternoon, so wind chills will be in the minus teens or perhaps -20. Tonight, however, the temperature will keep rising, climbing into positive territory this evening and perhaps making it to 10 degrees during Monday's early morning hours. The trapped cold air may have enough moisture to produce some low clouds or dense fog late tonight, which will last into part of Monday. That may produce some light snow flurries, but they won't amount to much since the cloud deck will be thin. The light southeast winds will bring in more milder air, so I expect temperatures to climb into the lower 20's tomorrow afternoon.

Melting and 40's Possible Tuesday and Wednesday

There will be a stronger push of warmer air on Tuesday. Temperatures may fall back into the teens during Monday evening, but the more persistent southwest winds should again allow temperatures to climb over 20 by early Tuesday morning. Those stronger southwest winds should allow temperatures on Tuesday afternoon to rise well above freezing and possibly break into the 40's.

Major Storm to Pass to Our North Wednesday Night and Thursday (Small Precipitation Threat?)...

Even though the steering winds won't tap really cold air, Minnesota will remain near or just to the south of the storm track. A relatively strong storm from the eastern Pacific will move along the US-Canadian border on Wednesday. Even though the storm is forecast to be strong, there won't be a lot of available moisture, so the bulk of the precipitation will remain along and to the north of the low. That track would put the best chance for precipitation, some of which would be snow, in far northern Minnesota or Manitoba and Ontario (see Day 4 on the NWS WPC Day 4-7 winter weather outlook). There is the chance that this track could move a bit between now and Wednesday night, but I only have the chance for a few spotty rain or snow showers on Wednesday night. The current track might give us a shot at a little accumulating snow on Thursday, but that threat is uncertain right now.

...With Falling Thursday Temperatures (But Late Week Won't be as Cold as Now)

We would remain warm in advance of the storm on Wednesday, so highs should again be above freezing and might have a shot at 40 if we get decent sunshine. Temperatures will likely hold in the lower 30's on Wednesday night. There will be significantly colder air on Thursday, although it won't be as cold as yesterday or today. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will fall back from near freezing early in the day to the teens by midday and possibly the plus single digits by late afternoon. Those falling temperatures will again be accompanied by strong winds, so wind chills would fall to the minus teens or even -20 by Thursday afternoon.

The quick west-to-east movement of storms means that we will have frequent temperature changes from Thursday into next weekend. The chances for precipitation will be small, but uncertain, since the storm timing will be off for this long-range forecast. The current forecast brings another piece of the mother lode of cold air (still under the high pressure area in the Yukon; see 9 AM CST NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) to south central Canada (see dark blue area come near the US-Canadian border by Thursday, using the right arrow to advance in time, on the Alicia Bentley 850 mb equivalent potential temperature map), but it is uncertain whether that air will get into Minnesota. For now, I'd say we would alternate between at least average temperatures and only slightly below average temperatures next weekend.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"

Sunday 12/14/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, a biting afternoon breeze, and still quite cold. High: near 0. Winds: light early, SE 5-15 MPH during the afternoon. Wind chill: between -30 and -13. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, breezy, and not as cold. Maybe some fog late. Temperatures holding in the plus single digits through the evening, reaching the low teens by morning. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH early evening, SW 8-15 MPH midnight and early morning hours. Wind chill: between -20 and -5 early evening, rising to between -15 and +5 during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 12/15/2025: Fog and low clouds, light winds, and seasonably cold. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: SW 5 MPH during the early morning, becoming NW 5-10 MPH midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday Night: Cloudy with some fog possible late, breezy, and seasonably cold. Temperatures between 10 and 15 by midnight, rising into the 20's during the early morning hours. Winds: light evening, S 5-15 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 12/16/2025: Sunshine through high clouds, windy, and much milder. High: between 36 and 42. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH during the morning and midday, becoming WNW 10-20 MPH by late afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come From Every Home on the Block to Hover Around My Head"

Tuesday Night: Some early evening clouds and windy, then clearing with winds diminishing during the early morning hours. Low: between 17 and 22. Winds: WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts through midnight, then NW 5 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Wednesday 12/17/2025: Morning sunshine, afternoon clouds with a slight chance for a sprinkle, turning windy again and still mild. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: S 5 MPH during the morning, SE 8-15 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable precipitation: 20%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet

Wednesday Night: Cloudy and windy with a chance for snow or rain showers. Still mild. Low: near 32. Winds: S 10-20 MPH evening, SW 10-20 MPH during the early morning hours. Chance of measurable precipitation: 30%.

Thursday 12/18/2025: Mostly cloudy, blustery, and turning colder. A chance for occasional flurries or a little light snow. Falling temperatures reaching the teens by midday and the plus single digits during the afternoon. Winds: NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.Wind chill: between -20 and 0 midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Extended: Uncertain precipitation chances into next weekend?? Frequent, but uncertain temperature changes, but extremes less likely???

Forecast Confidence (10 - "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 - "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 9 Sunday, 8 Sunday night, 6 Monday and Monday night, 7 Tuesday, 5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, 2 Wednesday night and Thursday.

Yesterday's High: 0°F; Overnight Low (through 2 AM Sunday): -14°F; Top Wind Gust: 29 MPH at 3:27 PM Saturday;
St. Cloud Airport 24-Hour Melted Precipitation (through 2 AM Sunday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 2 AM Sunday): None; Coldest Wind Chill (through 2 AM Sunday): -29°F 1-2 AM Sunday

Next Update: Monday, December 15, 2025 6 AM

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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