St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

There will be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, both this morning as the Canadian cold front (see latest NWS WPC North America zoom-in map) pushes into central Minnesota and Sunday morning with another cold front due to pass central Minnesota (see Sunday panels on the NWS WPC short-range forecast chart). Neither of these systems is expected to produce major rainfall (see Days 1-3 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast) with only a small risk of severe weather in eastern and southern Minnesota, most when new scattered storms could develop this afternoon (see NWS Storm Prediction Center Day 1 convective outlook). So, the weekend weather will mainly be good for outdoor activities, including WeFest and the Benton County Fair.

80's Daytime, 50's at Night Over Weekend

High temperatures will mainly be in the 80's through the weekend. The Canadian air pushing in this afternoon will drop our early morning uncomfortable dew points in the 60's (see UCAR hourly dew point map) back into the comfortable 50's by the afternoon, so lows will probably be in the lower 50's tonight (maybe the upper 40's) and in the upper half of the 50's early Sunday and Monday. 

No Predictable Chances for Significant Rain into Early Next Week, But Lots of Uncertainty

Storms will continue to push through the Canadian Prairie Provinces (see a series of them caught up in the counterclockwise circulation in central Canada on the College of DuPage North America mid-level water vapor loop), perhaps closer to the Canadian border by early next week. The latest forecasts have allowed the area with a better chance of rain to lie closer to Minnesota from tomorrow through the middle of next week (see Days 2-5 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Right now, the forecasts still trend dry through early next week, but a poor forecast of the strength of an individual low or having the lingering front end up a bit further north could bring some rainfall to at least southern Minnesota, even at the end of the week (see Days 3-7 of the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast).

Brief Check-In on Continued Dryness...

I've emphasized the very dry conditions (no help over the past week on the updated US Drought Monitor; see two week comparison) in previous forecasts, so I'll only note that I saw part of the Sauk River along the northwest side of St. Cloud actually have pockets with a dry basin (see river height merely a foot and a half on the NWS Water Prediction Service when you click on the Sauk River gauge). The Mississippi River flow just below the dam in St. Cloud continues to be in the lowest 10% of heights with river low among the lowest (brown area) on record.

Right now, we have quite a bit of wildfire smoke aloft (see EPA fire and smoke map), but it will be swept out by the approaching cold front 

...Smoke Issues

Our weekend air will be coming from the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. That could bring back the smoke aloft. There are a few pockets of air quality problems near the ground at some of the northern Alberta or NWT stations, so there might be a chance of smoke at the ground, but it's too early to forecast that.