Friday, February 27, 2026  4:25 AM 

Prepared by Bob Weisman, SCSU Meteorologist and Professor Emeritus

What Do You Mean This Winter Will Have Near Average Temperatures??!!

Sorry for missing yesterday. Internet outage here.

February Has Likely Undone Cold Winter

Through the statistics of Wednesday, the February St. Cloud average temperature was 23.4 degrees. That's not as mild as it was through February 15 (more than 11 degrees above average), but is still 7.9 degrees above the monthly average. So, the running St. Cloud temperature average for meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28) is 16.0 degrees through Wednesday. That figure is now 0.6 degrees milder than the average, despite colder than average December (-2.9 degrees) and January (-2.2 degrees).

There are 3 days to add to those figures. Two days (yesterday, and today) will be much warmer than average, while Saturday is likely to have near average temperatures. Yesterday was another day that was 10 degrees above the average; the high reached 44 degrees in St. Cloud after a morning low of 15 degrees (see last 7 days of St. Cloud temperatures from MesoWest). And, temperatures were much warmer to our west (see 21Z, 3 PM CST, on the NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map), so today will end up being even warmer, especially considering our mild start (upper 20's and lower 30's in much of Minnesota; see latest hour of NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Toasty and Windy Friday

By afternoon, the cold front in Alberta and Saskatchewan will be approaching, but even there, high temperatures were in the 40's and even 50's where the west winds were coming right off the Rockies (see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). So, we will see temperatures climb into the middle or even upper 40's with blustery winds from the west-northwest this afternoon. Those winds will be strong enough that the National Weather Service has a wind advisory across northern Minnesota and even a high wind warning along Lake Superior in Cook County.

Cooler Saturday and Sunday

That Canadian cold front will move through Minnesota tonight, so temperatures will fall back to the lower teens by early tomorrow with some wind chills in the minus single digits or even -10. Temperatures will only have a shot at 20 degrees tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit colder (plus single digits) Saturday night with lighter winds and rebound to the middle 20's Sunday.

Narrow Band of Snow Saturday (To Our South??)

There will be a weak low moving along the front as it slows in Iowa tomorrow. Once again, we will have a narrow band of snowfall that looks like it will remain over the Minnesota River Valley and southern Minnesota. At this point, this system doesn't look as strong as the snow band that stalled in central and southern Minnesota last week. But, the forecast of that snow band didn't work out well. I have the potential for an inch or two of snow (set tab to 12 UTC, 6 AM CST, Sunday on the NWS WPC probabilistic winter precipitation guidance) mostly to our south with only a few flurries here, but I am not nearly as confident about the snow forecast as I am about the cold. 

The National Weather Service has a narrow band with a winter storm advisory from the Mankato area to southeastern Minnesota.

Warming Up Early Next Week...

The weekend return to near average temperatures will again give way to a milder weather pattern early next week. Monday looks to be sunny, so highs should climb back into the 30's after a start in the teens.

...With Precipitation Chances Uncertain, but At Least Closer to Minnesota

The weather pattern for next week has a lot of potential for some precipitation over the Continental US. There will be a pair of storm tracks, one near the Canadian border and one in the Plains. And, there will be a large temperature difference between a wedge of the frigid air, now in Nunavut (temperatures in the -30's yesterday afternoon; see yesterday's 3 PM NWS WPC North America zoom-in map), the milder air that we will be in, and toasty air from the Central Plains southward. However, the computer forecasts can't agree on the path of any storm in either track, so there are periods with precipitation nearby (see Days 4-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation forecast), but no agreement about anything hitting Minnesota at this point. So, I'd cautiously go with milder than average temperatures (perhaps tempered by nearby clouds), but uncertain precipitation chances.

Detailed St. Cloud, MN, and Vicinity Forecast

Confidence Level: "The Bugs Are Waiting for Me to Mow the Lawn"   

Friday 2/27/2026: Sunshine mixed with high clouds, turning blustery, and milder. High: between 45 and 50. Winds: SW 8-15 MPH during the morning, NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts midday and afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.  

Confidence Level: "Extra Bugs Will Come from Every House on My Block to Make a Cloud Around My Head" 

Friday Night: Cloudy, breezy, and colder. Maybe a flurry. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: NW 10-25 MPH evening, 8-15 MPH late. Wind chill: between -10 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 20%.

Saturday 2/28/2026: Cloudy with perhaps a few flurries or perhaps a little light snow, not as windy, but much colder. High: between 15 and 20. Winds: N 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly clear, diminishing wind, and colder. Low: between 2 and 7. Winds: NW 5-10 MPH evening, 5 MPH late at night. Wind chill: between -10 and 0. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday 3/1/2026: Mostly sunny, lighter winds, and not quite as cold. High: between 20 and 25. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Sunday Night: Partly clear, light winds, and not as cold. Low: between 10 and 15. Winds: S 5 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Monday 3/2/2026: Partly sunny, breezy, and milder again. High: between 32 and 37. Winds: S 10-20 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Confidence Level: "Enough Bugs Will Fly into My Mouth to Throw Off My Diet"    

Monday Night: Partly clear with perhaps some fog and much milder. Low: between 25 and 30. Winds: S 5-10 MPH. Chance of measurable snowfall: 10%.

Tuesday 3/3/2026: Partly sunny with a slight chance of a rain shower. Still mild. High: between 37 and 43. Winds: SE 5-15 MPH. Chance of measurable rainfall: 20%.

Extended: Likely milder than average mid-week??? Uncertain chances for precipitation???

Forecast Confidence (10 – "The Rabbits Will Thump Even Though I Fed Them"; 0 – "The Rabbits Will Offer To Groom My Bald Spot"): 8 Friday, 5 Friday night and Saturday, 6 Saturday night through Monday, 3 Monday night, 1 Tuesday.  

Yesterday's High: 44°F; Overnight Low (through 4 AM Friday): 27°F; 

St. Cloud Airport last 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Friday): None; SCSU 24-Hour Precipitation (through 4 AM Friday): None

Next Update: Monday, March 2, 2026 6 AM

Comments

Let me know what you think about this forecast and discussion by emailing SCSU meteorology professor Bob Weisman. Please note that I make the forecast, not the weather!

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