St. Cloud, MN Weather Forecast

Whether Warm and Cold, Dryness Has Continued

While high temperatures alternated between cool and near average last week (see NWS St. Cloud May 2026 high-low temperature graph), the dry air kept low temperatures consistently cool (four straight frosts). Yesterday was another day on the cool side as high temperatures only made it to around 60 degrees (see 4 PM CDT Sunday NWS WPC North America zoom-in map). Since we have been clear overnight (see College of DuPage North America clean infrared satellite loop), the continued dry air (see dew points less than 25 degrees, white areas, on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) will allow low temperatures in the 30's with a few upper 20's (see NWS Aviation Weather Center METAR map).

Warmer This Work Week (60's First Half; 70's, Maybe 80, Second Half)

However, the blocked Canadian steering wind pattern (low pressure, counterclockwise circulation, to the east, with high pressure, clockwise circulation to the west on the College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) is finally beginning to drift eastward. That will eventually allow our steering winds to become more west-to-east. This change in weather pattern will allow milder air masses to move into Minnesota this week. Highs are more likely to remain in the low to middle 60's today through Wednesday, even though that's still 5 degrees cooler than the mid-May average. We will have a shot at highs in the 70's Thursday and perhaps an 80-degree high on Friday.

Only Scattered Shower Chances Tonight, Thursday

We also need to break the very dry weather pattern (set NWS Water Prediction Service precipitation map to yesterday's date and last 10 days period) since the last big rain event on April 27. The change in steering winds means that our source air will be coming off the Canadian Rockies, but any south wind in advance of a strong storm will finally mean a chance for the really humid air from Arkansas and Tennessee southward (brown areas on the UCAR hourly dew point chart) will have a chance to get pull far enough northward to give us a shot at significant rain.

That will take a while, however. A low pressure system pushing from southeastern British Columbia into southern Alberta (see College of DuPage North America water vapor loop) will pull a cold front through tonight, but there will be only a 30-40 percent shot at some scattered overnight showers without major precipitation potential (see Days 1-2 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation outlook). 

There will be a slow increase of dew points to the 40's or even 50's by Thursday night, so a warm front could drop a few scattered rain showers (see Days 4-5 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation outlook). 

Next Chance for Significant Rain: Maybe This Weekend?

By the weekend, there will be the potential for a major Pacific storm south of Alaska (see Pacific mid-tropospheric water vapor loop from Colorado State satellite slider) to reach the Plains. Some of the computer forecasts have actual summer-like uncomfortable humidity getting into Minnesota by the weekend, but the computers cannot agree about the track of this storm, especially since there might be a pair of storms in a northern versus a southern storm track. So, the chance for weekend significant rainfall is there (see Days 6-7 on the NWS WPC quantitative precipitation outlook), but the confidence is low.

Continue to Avoid Outdoor Burning

Until we get significant rainfall, every day through at least Thursday with a strong wind and milder temperatures will produce high to extreme fire danger.